The science of extremes: Wind

Wind storms, including cyclones found in and out of the tropics, thunderstorms and tornadoes, are associated with the vast majority of global insured losses from natural disasters. Of $600 billion in global insured losses in 2010, for example, 77% were from meteorological events, including tropical storms and tornadoes (Munich Re, 2010). The Extreme Events report concludes that warmer temperatures in the future would mean relatively more powerful hurricanes but fewer of them: Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchangedThe uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. --(Extreme Events report summary, 2011) More about hurricanes, climate, and the current scientific thinking in this area here.

The new science of Black Swan hurricanes: From MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel: Hurricanes have no doubt been part of the Earths climate since the planet formed some 4 billion years ago, but we have only been tracking them with any accuracy for the past 40 years or so. That is enough to give us some idea of their basic climatologywhere they typically form and move, and how strong they typically get, but it is not nearly long enough to tell us what the worst possible event is at any given location. But in recent, years, we have developed a technique that allows us to simulate millions of hurricanes in this and possible future climate states that reflect changing climate. When we deploy this technique, we see some events that we would not have otherwise thought possible; we have nicknamed these Black Swan Tropical Cyclones.More than half of all the damage done by hurricanes in the United States since 1870, normalized for changing population, wealth and currency value, was done by only 8 storms. (A technical lecture by Emanuel on initial results is here.) Scientists believe that cyclones outside of the tropics are occurring closer to the Poles. TOEXTREMES.ORG 1

The number of North American cyclones has increased since 1960, but no significant increase in intensity has been discovered. (Zhang et al 2004)

Its unclear how extreme winds from thunderstorms and tornadoes will change in a warming world. This field is in its infancy only a few papers on the subject have been published, and they have not definitively settled on the direction of expected changes. (Diffenbaugh et al, 2008) Thunderstorms and tornadoes are extremely small-scale phenomena that are not explicitly simulated by climate models, which work at far too large a scale to accurate simulate such storms.

How cyclones work: Air is set in motion, causing wind, by forces due to differences in atmospheric pressure.

A cyclone is a region of the atmosphere where the pressure is lower than its surroundings. Air near a cyclone is pushed inwards by this pressure difference, but is deflected by the Coriolis force a consequence of Earths rotation to form an inwards spiral. Cyclones spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere (it is a common myth that a toilet bowl or sink will drain in opposite directions in the two Hemispheres both drain too fast to be affected by the Earths rotation!).

(Schematic figure of a Northern Hemisphere cyclone, from here)

Tropical cyclones derive their energy by mixing warm, moist air from right next to the ocean surface with cooler, drier air further above the surface. Storm activity is centered in tropical/subtropical ocean regions (5-30 degrees north and south), in local summer/fall. Cyclones that form outside of the tropics, known as extratropical cyclones, derive their energy by mixing warm, moist air from the subtropics with cold, dry air from polar regions. Extratropical cyclone activity is centered in mid-latitude regions (30-60 degrees north and south), in local winter.

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