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Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

Major Index

Symbol

Spot

%
Change
(M-O-M)

Future

Basis

R1

Dec.
Roll
Over

S1

Last
6 mth
avg

Cost

Last
6 mth
Cost

BANKNIFTY

8,027.40

(5.42)

8,014.60

(12.80)

8,550

7,775

75.09

68.70 (0.16)

-0.01

CNXIT

6,111.70

2.75

6,151.85

40.15

6,228

6,024

76.28

46.80

0.66

0.47

MINIFTY

4,646.25

(2.85)

4,674.50

28.25

4,965

4,550

65.92

70.52

0.61

0.12

NFTYMCAP50

1,752.35

(8.32)

1,765.15

12.80

1,823

1,722

84.41

19.23

0.73

0.81

NIFTY

4,646.25

(2.83)

4,673.10

26.85

4,965

4,550

67.37

67.28

0.58

0.11

RANK

90
75
60
45
30
15
0
BANKNIFTY

CNXIT

MINIFTY
Dec. Roll Over

NFTYMCAP50

NIFTY

6mth AVG.

Rolls in NIFTY futures in line with avg. NIFTY rolls at 67%, however In value terms, it is at 9418 Vs. 10617 (number of
shares 201 lakh versus 222 lakh shares). Also, market wide roll also took a hit 76% in value terms 24509 vs 26501 cr
(which is much lower than last month, with prices of stocks have also fallen) leading to overall position of 33298 Cr vs
37132 cr in futures positions, implying market back on light positions.

Nifty front PCR_OI has opened with a gap down 1 levels because of PUTS position at 4500 zone (highest OI at 38
lakh), implying market participants are convinced support base shifted south 4450-4500; on higher side highest CE OI
is at 5000 (36.72 lakh shares), so broad range from option writers perspective 4500-5000; Index options positions
decreased considerably at 37519 cr (last month 52337 Cr) OI with hedge ratio moving further to 0.38 (last month it
was 0.41), well below avg., signalling market participants have unwound both NIFTY Fut. and stock futures positions,
sighting market participants sentiment is cautions.
Among stock futures few sectors have shown change of sentiment, suggesting that can under perform Index going
forward in the December series. Overall BANKING (large cap banks), METALS, REALTY, INFRASTRUCTURE,
CAPITAL GOODS, TELECOM and OIL & GAS should be watched carefully as they have declined in C-o-C
across counters. On other hand, sectors which might continue to outperform are AUTO, FMCG, IT majors,
PHARMA and OIL & GAS.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 1

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

Sectors Data
Sector

Dec. Rolls

6mth Avg.

Rank

Automobile

79

82

Banking

78

79

Capital Goods

77

81

Cement

78

83

Fertilisers

74

81

Finance

73

82

FMCG

77

83

Hotels

75

88

Infrastructure

84

85

Media

86

80

Metals

80

83

Oil & Gas

78

81

Pharma

72

79

Power

79

84

Realty

82

84

Sugar

88

87

Technology

74

75

Telecom

74

83

Textile
Transport

76
83

84
85

3
3

Dec. Rolls

Transport

Textile

Telecom

Technology

Sugar

Realty

Power

Pharma

Oil & Gas

Metals

Media

Infrastructure

Hotels

FMCG

Finance

Fertilisers

Cement

Capital Goods

Banking

Automobile

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

6mnth Avg.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 2

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

AUTOMOBILE

Symbol

Spot

APOLLOTYRE
ASHOKLEY
BAJAJ-AUTO
BHARATFORG
BOSCHLTD
ESCORTS
EXIDEIND
HEROMOTOCO
M&M
MARUTI
MRF
TATAMOTORS
TATAMTRDVR
TVSMOTOR

59.75
22.80
1,602.35
247.65
6,637.75
67.30
107.45
1,904.50
686.30
921.75
6,920.25
179.15
85.55
51.90

%
Change
(M-O-M)
(8.22)
(6.94)
(3.70)
(8.19)
(4.92)
(16.81)
(6.61)
(9.72)
(4.59)
(7.34)
7.05
2.96
(10.51)
(17.29)

Future

Basis

60.20
22.90
1,618.35
250.30
6,702.90
68.05
108.15
1,918.90
692.55
926.00
6,914.40
180.10
86.50
52.20

0.45
0.10
16.00
2.65
65.15
0.75
0.70
14.40
6.25
4.25
(5.85)
0.95
0.95
0.30

Dec.
Roll
Over
84.63
74.56
76.01
92.47
59.46
84.93
66.81
72.75
79.64
83.87
76.95
82.48
89.01
81.37

TGT
58
18
1,500
230
6,250
71
110
1,750
630
930
5,600
189
72
45

6 mth
avg
77.76
76.05
83.87
87.45
73.16
86.82
79.40
70.95
74.35
83.99
79.09
85.85
92.36
81.01

Cost

6 mth
Cost

0.75
0.44
1.00
1.07
0.98
1.11
0.65
0.76
0.91
0.46
(0.08)
0.53
1.11
0.58

RANK

0.42
(1.54)
(0.49)
0.39
0.62
0.77
0.28
(1.10)
(0.11)
(0.76)
0.66
(0.30)
(0.29)
0.55

3
5
4
4
3
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
5
5

105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Dec. Roll Over

TVSMOTOR

TATAMTRDVR

TATAMOTORS

MRF

MARUTI

M&M

HEROMOTOCO

EXIDEIND

ESCORTS

BOSCHLTD

BHARATFORG

BAJAJ-AUTO

ASHOKLEY

APOLLOTYRE

6 mth avg

AUTOMOBILE sector rolls well below 6-month avg. 79%, also well below market wide of 78%. Two stocks worth
watching are:

M & M rolls well above the avg. at 80% with Cost 0.91 higher than 0.85 M-O-M and 0.11 6mth avg (implying long
some supportive buying seen). Technically, the stock can retest support levels of 650-660 zone if holds expect
stock to retest high levels of 726-727 where 200 DMA is placed, technical correction should be used to enter.s

TATAMOTOR rolls at 82% in line with its 6-month avg. (with cost holding positive). The stock has managed to
close month on a positive note, also has been trading in a range of 163-165 on down side with struggling to cross
190-195 on upside, we expect it to continue to trade in this range

Overall AUTO sector saw roll cost hold positive across the board, expect the sector to be market performer and
corrections should be used to enter this sector.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 3

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

BANKING

Symbol

Spot

ALBK
ANDHRABANK
AXISBANK
BANKBARODA
BANKINDIA
CANBK
CENTRALBK
DCB
DENABANK
FEDERALBNK
HDFCBANK
ICICIBANK
IDBI
INDIANB
INDUSINDBK
IOB
KOTAKBANK
KTKBANK
ORIENTBANK
PNB
SBIN
SYNDIBANK
UCOBANK
UNIONBANK
VIJAYABANK
YESBANK

115.45
79.10
815.55
682.75
268.70
357.70
66.50
31.70
49.25
331.20
429.60
685.95
80.40
181.95
231.95
74.00
445.95
65.05
193.95
780.90
1,628.85
68.75
47.00
164.15
45.00
239.30

%
Change
(M-O-M)
(21.94)
(20.34)
(15.38)
(1.26)
(16.19)
(18.71)
(27.12)
(15.24)
(21.39)
(7.23)
(0.77)
(6.65)
(13.73)
(5.18)
(6.74)
(20.69)
0.72
(17.97)
(27.87)
(9.27)
(1.92)
(31.32)
(22.25)
(23.60)
(11.42)
(13.92)

Future

Basis

116.65
79.90
803.05
663.40
268.50
360.20
67.35
32.15
49.95
332.50
433.30
691.35
79.25
179.85
231.00
74.75
445.15
66.25
196.00
761.85
1,603.75
69.55
47.50
165.35
45.55
239.25

TGT

1.20
0.80
(12.50)
(19.35)
(0.20)
2.50
0.85
0.45
0.70
1.30
3.70
5.40
(1.15)
(2.10)
(0.95)
0.75
(0.80)
1.20
2.05
(19.05)
(25.10)
0.80
0.50
1.20
0.55
(0.05)

110
70
750
580
240
308
72
32
55
280
415
680
90
172
194
70
450
60
178
700
1,700
66
45
120
40
200

Dec.
Roll
Over
70.53
78.75
79.39
77.71
72.53
75.95
82.25
77.14
80.68
81.24
76.86
76.37
87.79
75.83
72.21
67.58
79.55
84.38
83.91
83.07
81.71
76.92
84.63
61.24
85.86
88.01

Last
6 mth
avg
80.65
78.30
76.57
77.25
72.06
74.08
86.06
83.06
83.64
69.35
78.47
73.71
85.29
80.26
79.84
75.10
78.97
89.27
68.40
82.26
79.14
81.75
88.99
70.34
82.12
82.83

Cost
1.04
1.01
(1.53)
(2.83)
(0.07)
0.70
1.28
1.42
1.42
0.39
0.86
0.79
(1.43)
(1.15)
(0.41)
1.01
(0.18)
1.84
1.06
(2.44)
(1.54)
1.16
1.06
0.73
1.22
(0.02)

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.51
(0.49)
0.02
0.05
(1.01)
(0.21)
0.56
0.80
0.03
0.47
0.11
0.17
(1.14)
(0.28)
0.43
(0.36)
0.12
0.05
(0.82)
(1.83)
0.41
(0.25)
(0.52)
(0.91)
0.42
0.40

Rank
4
5
4
5
5
5
3
3
2
5
3
3
1
5
5
4
3
4
5
5
2
4
4
5
5
5

105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Dec. Ro ll Over

YESBANK

VIJAYABANK

UNIONBANK

UCOBANK

SYNDIBANK

SBIN

PNB

ORIENTBANK

KTKBANK

KOTAKBANK

IOB

INDUSINDBK

INDIANB

IDBI

ICICIBANK

HDFCBANK

FEDERALBNK

DENABANK

DCB

CENTRALBK

CANBK

BANKINDIA

BANKBARODA

AXISBANK

ANDHRABANK

ALBK

6mth avg .

BANKING sector witnessed in line with market wide rolls at 78%, with most of the large Cap stocks showing shorts
rolled as C-o-C decline. Over all sector yet again showing signs of tiring out(over sold in short term may give a
technical rebound),stocks such as SBIN saw above average roll of 81% (with cost negative) versus avg. of 79%. The
stock has managed to hold on to key weekly support zone of 1550-1560, if manages to sustain above it, may lead to a
short covering resulting in retest of higher levels of 1740 relatively outperform. HDFCBANK rolls below avg. at 76%
versus 78% with C-o-C improve implying signals of short squeeze. Stock managing to sustain above crucial weekly
support levels 400; expect it to retest higher levels of 358-360 where key resistance is placed. Overall sentiment is still
cautious as heavy weight Banks saw shorts rolled, any technical rebound rally should be used to lighten positions.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 4

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

CEMENT

Symbol

Spot

ACC
AMBUJACEM
CENTURYTEX
GRASIM
INDIACEM
JPASSOCIAT
ULTRACEMCO

1,151.30
157.15
221.95
2,515.35
67.00
53.25
1,157.65

%
Change
(M-O-M)
2.52
3.87
(18.98)
8.83
(5.96)
(14.32)
2.80

Future

Basis

TGT

1,161.65
158.05
224.00
2,463.15
67.50
53.70
1,165.20

10.35
0.90
2.05
(52.20)
0.50
0.45
7.55

1,318
159
340
2,644
83
67
1,172

Dec.
Last 6
Roll
mth avg
Over
77.62
77.17
71.64
83.84
87.05
91.36
72.08
79.24
82.24
88.87
83.84
85.57
71.89
78.11

Cost
0.90
0.57
0.92
(2.08)
0.75
0.85
0.65

Last
6 mth
Cost
(0.72)
(1.33)
0.23
(0.05)
0.07
0.47
(0.24)

Rank
1
2
3
1
2
4

100
75
50
25

Dec. Roll Over

ULTRACEMCO

JPASSOCIAT

INDIACEM

GRASIM

CENTURYTEX

AMBUJACEM

ACC

Last 6 mth avg

CEMENT sector has seen a dip in rolls below 6-month avg. rolls at 78%, in line with market wide rolls (with cost still
positive long unwinding no shorts rolled) Stocks that should be kept on radar are:

ACC rolls at 78% in line with avg.; technically, the stock is holding above support zone of 1110-1115, if holds
above this zone expect to retest 1195-1215 levels.

GRASIM another counter which saw rolls below avg. at 72% with C-o-C positive. Technically, the stock has has
given fresh break out above resistance levels of 2450-2480 levels, if remains above it can retest next resistance
2615-2620.

Overall the sector seems to have seen unwinding of long positions, we expect sector to be market out performer.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 5

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

CAPITAL GOODS

Symbol

Spot

ABAN
ABB
APIL
BEL
BEML
BGRENERGY
BHEL
CROMPGREAV
CUMMINSIND
LT
PRAJIND
PUNJLLOYD
SIEMENS
VOLTAS

349.40
575.70
293.25
1,347.65
455.00
179.05
236.25
126.6
342.2
999.5
74.95
41.25
638.4
72.65

%
Change
(M-O-M)
5.19
(0.10)
(31.40)
(11.13)
(2.74)
(31.16)
(10.17)
7.52
(2.51)
(18.90)
4.31
(8.94)
(7.88)
(17.54)

Future

Basis

333.80
568.85
295.30
1,364.55
460.15
181.15
236.50
125.05
345.6
1008.2
75.55
40.15
638.30
73.35

(15.60)
(6.85)
2.05
16.90
5.15
2.10
0.25
-1.55
3.4
8.7
0.6
-1.1
-0.1
0.70

TGT
270
490
306
1,200
485
190
260
139
347
850
75
35
570
70

Dec.
Last 6
Roll
mth
Over
avg
65.41 85.98
87.72 81.79
89.75 85.62
67.53 76.52
60.00 83.71
79.60 89.01
81.35 84.69
82.68 70.55
66.66 81.41
78.22 79.83
65.37 83.88
86.41 84.85
79.22 70.64
90.53 80.17

Cost
(4.46)
(1.19)
0.70
1.25
1.13
1.17
0.11
-1.224
0.9936
0.8704
0.8005
-2.667
-0.016
0.9635

Last 6
mth
Cost
0.24
(0.87)
0.27
0.67
0.37
(0.11)
0.07
0.61
(0.04)
0.18
0.21
0.57
0.28
0.13

Rank
5
5
3
5
3
2

3
2
3
5
3
5
5
4

100
80
60
40
20

Dec. Roll Over

VOLTAS

SIEMENS

PUNJLLOYD

PRAJIND

LT

CUMMINSIND

CROMPGREAV

BHEL

BGRENERGY

BEML

BEL

APIL

ABB

ABAN

Last 6 mth avg

CAPITAL GOODS sector saw well below 6-month avg. rolls at 78%, in line with market wide rolls of 78%. Stocks that
should be kept on radar are:

BHEL rolls at 81% below 6mth avg., Technically, stock formed a new 52 week low rebounded from the lows of
around 225-230 zones; may see a technical rebound rally to 253 if holds on to support levels; but one should
lighten positions at higher levels.

On other hand CROMPTON saw above avg. rolls at 83%, with C-o-C improve, implying long positions rolled, with
stock rebounding from 52 week support levels 108-110, trying to sustain above 20 DMA. In short-term if it can
retest 136-139 levels.

Overall the sector will be a market under performer, as heavy weights still giving signs of shorts rolled.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 6

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

FERTILIZER

Symbol

Spot

CHAMBLFERT
TATACHEM
UNIPHOS

76.60
307.50
125.40

%
Change
(M-O-M)
(9.24)
(7.63)
(4.17)

Future
76.85
310.10
126.95

Basis

Dec.
Roll
Over

TGT

0.25
2.60
1.55

84
297
135

68.29
74.08
81.19

Last
6 mth
avg
78.6
81.2
83.6

Cost
0.33
0.85
1.24

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.0
-0.1
0.2

Rank
2
4
3

90
75
60
45
30
15
0
CHAMBLFERT

TATACHEM
Dec. Roll Over

UNIPHOS

6mth Avg.

FERTILIZERS sector has seen a dip in rolls, well below 6-month avg. 74% versus 81%, with C-o-C giving signals of
profit booking; clearly signs of sentiment cautious.

CHAMBALFERT roll well below avg. at 68% versus 79% (long unwinding), however cost is positive with stock
forming a strong support bottom at lower levels i.e.72-73 if stays above can rebound to retest 83 levels (20 DMA)

UNIPHOS showing aggressive rolls at 81% with Cost improving, implying long position lightened, with stock
approaching crucial support levels of 52 week low 120-123, one should go long only if sustains above for a target
of 135.

Overall expect the sector is losing interest will be a market performer to the market.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 7

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

FINANCE

Symbol

Spot

BAJAJHLDNG
HDFC
IDFC
IFCI
INDIAINFO
JINDALSWHL
LICHSGFIN
PFC
RELCAPITAL
SREINFRA
SRTRANSFIN

675.25
656.60
94.75
23.65
44.40
381.45
225.35
132.00
237.70
24.30
417.80

%
Change
(M-O-M)
(9.54)
4.36
(12.02)
(2.87)
(29.69)
(6.34)
8.71
(19.22)
(18.15)
1.04
(19.30)

Future
684.75
658.25
94.90
23.85
45.25
386.75
220.30
132.95
239.90
24.70
422.15

Basis
9.50
1.65
0.15
0.20
0.85
5.30
(5.05)
0.95
2.20
0.40
4.35

Dec.
Roll
Over
66.67
86.36
88.42
46.25
77.80
80.35
83.48
34.81
82.13
90.31
73.01

TGT
630
680
89
20
41 /39
355 / 343
232
122
223/ 218
24
403

Last
6 mth
avg
75.10
76.47
82.10
91.42
79.95
90.36
82.19
69.51
87.19
87.58
83.29

Cost
1.41
0.25
0.16
0.85
1.91
1.39
(2.24)
0.72
0.93
1.65
1.04

Last
6 mth
cost
(0.54)
(0.02)
0.20
0.17
0.55
0.84
(0.17)
0.28
0.02
0.52
0.21

Rank
3
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
4
3
3

105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Dec. Roll Over

SRTRANSFIN

SREINFRA

RELCAPITAL

PFC

LICHSGFIN

JINDALSWHL

INDIAINFO

IFCI

IDFC

HDFC

BAJAJHLDNG

6mth Avg.

FINANCE sector saw a dip in rolls at 74% well below avg. 82%, in line with market wide rolls, but with C-o-C majority
flat, showing sector requiring stock specific approach.

IDFC has seen aggressive rolls at 88%, stock closing below key support levels of 101-102, if fails to rebound
above these levels, expect to test lower levels at 87 levels.

On other hand LICHSGFIN has witnessed above average roll 84% with stock managing to hold above 218-219
(200 DMA), if trades above 50 DMA 224, expect further north wards movement to 240-245s levels.

Overall the financial sector saw profit booking dip in buying interest; sector will be a market performer.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 8

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

FMCG

Symbol

Spot

ASIANPAINT
BATAINDIA
COLPAL
DABUR
GODREJIND
HINDUNILVR
ITC
KSOILS
MCDOWELL-N
MCLEODRUSS
RUCHISOYA
TATAGLOBAL
TITAN
TTKPRESTIG
VIDEOIND

2,626.70
534.15
980.75
101.55
174.55
414.30
200.70
5.90
512.70
187.55
96.35
90.10
172.40
2,472.35
171.20

%
Change (MO-M)
(9.29)
(16.14)
0.17
4.37
(2.62)
7.04
3.40
(14.49)
(31.43)
(14.98)
(8.93)
7.97
(9.74)
0.14
1.54

Future

Basis

TGT

2,632.50
537.70
989.70
102.45
176.70
415.95
202.85
6.00
518.90
189.10
98.45
90.75
172.15
2,429.40
173.15

5.80
3.55
8.95
0.90
2.15
1.65
2.15
0.10
6.20
1.55
2.10
0.65
(0.25)
(42.95)
1.95

2,360
615
1,000
115
150
445
205
6
640
165
80
70
135
2,900
130.00

Dec.
Roll
Over
81.30
80.25
46.55
72.65
92.30
73.56
75.15
82.44
87.04
92.95
90.51
85.23
77.95
43.49
75.48

Last
6 mth
avg
78.50
75.23
77.51
82.52
88.89
82.56
75.43
84.85
86.91
95.51
96.47
89.10
78.44
75.50
74.36

Cost
0.22
0.66
0.91
0.89
1.23
0.40
1.07
1.69
1.21
0.83
2.18
0.72
(0.15)
(1.74)
1.14

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.31
0.24
0.59
0.27
0.61
(0.58)
(0.12)
0.81
0.60
0.16
0.46
0.20
0.10
0.41
(3.39)

Rank
4
1
3
1
5
1
3
3
1
4
5
5
5
1
5

120
100
80
60
40
20

Dec. Roll Over

VIDEOIND

TTKPRESTIG

TITAN

TATAGLOBAL

RUCHISOYA

MCLEODRUSS

MCDOWELL-N

KSOILS

ITC

HINDUNILVR

GODREJIND

DABUR

COLPAL

BATAINDIA

ASIANPAINT

6mth Avg.

FMCG sector saw a dip in rolls, below 6-month avg. 83%, at 79% still above market wide. Signs of profit booking at
higher levels

HINDUNILVR saw rolls of 74% with cost showing a jump (clearly profit booking), technically stock has given fresh
break out above 402, closing very close to yearly highs of 421, one should trade with positive bias if crosses 422
retest high levels of 443.

ITC heavy weight has seen in line with avg. roll 76% with stock closing very close to 20 DMA of 200 high, C-o-C
improves suggesting longs rolled; if moves above 202-203 expect to head towards 215 levels.

Overall the sector may be a market performer with large caps can qualify as opportunity to buy on dips.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 9

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

HOTELS

HOTELEELA

%
Change
(M-O-M)
28.95
(13.84)

INDHOTEL

52.50

Symbol

Spot

(10.79)

29.25

0.30

28

Dec.
Roll
Over
73.28

53.05

0.55

50

77.22

Future

Basis

TGT

Last
6 mth
avg
85.86
91.62

1.04

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.60

1.05

0.40

Cost

Rank
4
4

100
88
75
63
50
38
25
13
0
HOTELEELA

INDHOTEL
Dec. Roll Over

6mth AVG.

HOTEL Sector has seen below avg. rolls of 75% versus 88%, with both stocks showing short rolls.

INDIAN HOTEL has seen 77% well below avg. with stock technically trying to form a bottom at 52 week low 5051, if fails to hold above it can expect to test lower levels of 48.

The sector is seen below average rolls, one should avoid.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 10

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

INFRASTRUCTURE

Symbol

Spot

GMRINFRA
GVKPIL
HCC
IRB
IVRCLINFRA
JINDALSAW
LITL
NCC
PATELENG

20.10
11.25
16.65
133.70
27.25
126.55
9.50
32.70
76.15

%
Change
(M-O-M)
(4.06)
6.13
(22.92)
(7.35)
(17.55)
4.11
(20.17)
(11.86)
(5.93)

Future
19.65
11.50
16.85
133.00
27.60
127.50
9.65
33.05
77.00

Basis
(0.45)
0.25
0.20
(0.70)
0.35
0.95
0.15
0.35
0.85

TGT
18
10
15
142/ 145
24 /23
121
9
69

Dec.
Roll
Over
85.07
84.39
84.93
84.43
87.92
81.52
88.94
78.14
82.73

Last
6 mth
avg
90.28
87.98
89.62
82.17
83.94
83.21
86.33
83.26
85.08

Cost
(2.24)
2.22
1.20
(0.52)
1.28
0.75
1.58
1.07
1.12

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.86
0.94
0.23
0.36
0.29
0.41
0.85
0.28
0.79

Rank
5
5
5
4
5
2
5
5
5

100

80

Dec. Roll Over

PATELENG

NCC

LITL

JINDALSAW

IVRCLINFRA

IRB

HCC

GVKPIL

GMRINFRA

60

6mth AVG.

INFRASTRUCTURE stocks saw rolls at 84%, in line with its 6-month average, but with the majority of counters C-o-C
decline implying shorts rolled.

JINDALSAW only exception showing below avg. rolls of 81% with C-o-C positive, implying long unwinding, with
stock trying to rebound and sustain above 20 DMA around 124-125, if holds one can see next resistance at 133.

We maintain our underperformance on the sector with all stocks looking weak. As they continue to form new bottoms
rebound should be used as an exit opportunity.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 11

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

MEDIA

DCHL

%
Change
(M-O-M)
36.05
(20.33)

DISHTV

59.70

SUNTV
ZEEL

Symbol

36.45

0.40

32

Dec.
Roll
Over
91.65

(3.71)

59.90

0.20

64

82.05

86.54

0.34

265.55

(2.01)

265.30

(0.25)

274

83.02

62.13

117.85

(2.48)

119.05

1.20

120

87.17

82.30

Spot

Future

Basis

TGT

Last
6 mth
avg
91.65

Last
6 mth
Cost
1.11
0.79

Cost

Rank
5

0.43

(0.09)

(1.58)

1.02

(0.23)

94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
DCHL

DISHTV

SUNTV

ZEEL

Dec. Roll Over

MEDIA sector has seen an increase in rolls above avg. rolls at 86%, above market wide.

SUNTV have seen above avg. rolls of 83% with stock closing near to 20 DMA at 275 at 50 DMA 270, if manages
to move above this level can retest 289

ZEEL saw rolls at 87% with roll cost positive, managing to hold 20 DMA 113-114 levels, if holds above it expect it
to retest 200 DMA levels of 124 levels.

Overall the sector has seen some buying interest, we expect sector to be market performer.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 12

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

METALS

Symbol

Spot

BHUSANSTL
GMDCLTD
HINDALCO
HINDZINC
JINDALSTEL
JSWISPAT
JSWSTEEL
NATIONALUM
NMDC
SAIL
SESAGOA
STER
TATASTEEL
WELCORP

312.00
163.65
117.20
118.05
463.20
9.10
524.85
50.00
155.75
80.55
159.85
90.35
341.90
87.55

%
Change
(M-O-M)
0.79
(5.30)
(1.55)
4.98
(7.78)
(11.22)
(8.55)
(2.44)
(15.03)
(5.73)
(9.71)
(13.54)
(9.74)
19.20

Future
306.85
164.45
118.35
118.25
466.20
9.25
526.85
50.25
157.45
79.50
160.05
91.30
342.95
86.80

Basis

TGT

(5.15)
0.80
1.15
0.20
3.00
0.15
2.00
0.25
1.70
(1.05)
0.20
0.95
1.05
(0.75)

260
130
120
120
415
9
550
52
149
80
135
80
310
98

Dec.
Roll
Over
66.21
69.83
83.33
83.56
84.73
86.51
93.88
66.10
84.82
73.53
86.18
87.90
86.52
72.72

Last
6 mth
avg
73.46
74.72
84.73
79.15
89.15
81.87
93.03
83.41
79.66
81.93
85.86
76.42
85.21
89.74

Cost
(1.65)
0.49
0.98
0.17
0.65
1.65
0.38
0.50
1.09
(1.30)
0.13
1.05
0.31
(0.86)

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.13
0.31
0.37
0.39
0.81
0.35
0.23
0.64
0.55
0.19
0.00
0.27
(0.26)
0.69

Rank
5
5
3
2
4
4
1
1
4
2
5
4
4
1

Dec. Roll Over

WELCORP

TATASTEEL

STER

SESAGOA

SAIL

NMDC

NATIONALUM

JSWSTEEL

JSWISPAT

JINDALSTEL

HINDZINC

HINDALCO

GMDCLTD

BHUSANSTL

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

6mth AVG.

METALS have shown a decline below 6-month average rolls at 80%.

JSWSTEEL saw sharp increase in rolls at 94%,with cost increase, with stock trying to form a strong bottom 488493 levels, if remains above it expect it to retest 20 DMA 554-565.

Another stock to watch for HINDZINC rolls well above avg. at 84% versus 79%, with cost increase (implying long
unwinding) stock trying to form a strong support band at 113-114 if continues to trade above it technical rebound
126-128 levels.

Overall the sector has seen more of short positions rolled, expect it to underperform, technical rebounds should be
used as an opportunity to exit.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 13

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

OIL & GAS


%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)
478.65
(5.59)
304.30
0.30
26.55
(36.41)
49.80
(28.29)
382.10
(2.00)
81.45
(8.12)
89.65
(18.94)
247.45
(12.48)
368.60
(8.49)
252.55
(3.94)
51.85
(15.55)
1,172.45
(0.89)
257.85
2.71
159.70
1.46
711.90
(8.70)

Symbol
BPCL
CAIRN
EKC
ESSAROIL
GAIL
GSPL
HINDOILEXP
HINDPETRO
IGL
IOC
MRPL
OIL
ONGC
PETRONET
RELIANCE

Future

Basis

TGT

482.35
303.55
26.90
50.40
383.50
82.30
90.65
250.45
373.10
254.85
52.45
1,161.95
254.20
159.35
719.00

3.70
(0.75)
0.35
0.60
1.40
0.85
1.00
3.00
4.50
2.30
0.60
(10.50)
(3.65)
(0.35)
7.10

455
285
23
42
425
76
80
235
340
225
44
1,150
260
160
680

Dec.
Roll
Over
71.25
80.00
82.47
80.25
63.67
86.16
84.05
88.75
67.66
76.54
83.80
63.98
77.68
79.38
76.68

Last
6 mth
avg
78.81
93.18
82.80
88.47
69.04
82.87
87.21
90.56
72.77
89.45
87.09
75.83
80.91
65.16
83.81

Cost
0.77
(0.25)
1.32
1.20
0.37
1.04
1.12
1.21
1.22
0.91
1.16
(0.90)
(1.42)
(0.22)
1.00

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.16
0.69
0.32
0.65
0.24
0.66
0.82
0.75
0.63
0.70
0.35
0.51
0.27
(0.21)
0.32

Rank
4
5
5
4
2
5
5
5
4
5
4
3
3
3
4

100
75
50
25

Dec. Roll Over

RELIANCE

PETRONET

ONGC

OIL

MRPL

IOC

IGL

HINDPETRO

HINDOILEXP

GSPL

GAIL

ESSAROIL

EKC

CAIRN

BPCL

6mth AVG.

OIL & GAS saw a dip in rolls below avg. rolls at 77% with the stocks seeing a C-o-C dip implying shorts rolled to next
series

GSPL saw above avg. rolls at 86%, the stock has approached a crucial bottom at 80-81,with 200 WMA at 79 if
breaks below it, expect stock to move further south to 64-65 support is placed.

For 2nd month RELIANCE saw decline in rolls at 77% with cost increasing (implying long unwinding) no shorts
rolled, technically stock has approached crucial support 700-705 levels, if falls below it expect to retest 650-670
levels; on other hand if sustains above it expect a rebound till 770-775 levels.

Overall the sector is seeing losing interest, both refinery and OMC large cap under pressure.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 14

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

PHARMA
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)
84.40
(7.81)
267.65
(13.55)
321.45
1.44
768.25
5.23
1,569.15
(1.24)
84.65
(23.70)
1,938.50
(1.64)
439.90
(6.31)
144.95
(13.51)
204.05
(5.90)
130.85
(12.12)
385.30
8.03
404.20
(6.61)
496.60
(1.88)

Symbol
AUROPHARMA
BIOCON
CIPLA
DIVISLAB
DRREDDY
FORTIS
GLAXO
LUPIN
MAX
OPTOCIRCUI
ORCHIDCHEM
PIRHEALTH
RANBAXY
SUNPHARMA

Future

Basis

85.40
269.70
324.85
775.05
1,584.65
84.75
1,945.25
442.90
145.00
202.75
131.75
387.45
406.60
501.25

TGT

1.00
2.05
3.40
6.80
15.50
0.10
6.75
3.00
0.05
(1.30)
0.90
2.15
2.40
4.65

88
250
307
705
1,500
75
2,050
405
140
170
120
360
365
530

Dec.
Roll
Over
78.98
78.28
79.85
64.76
66.78
67.69
44.63
74.37
60.11
87.40
75.86
92.39
57.47
81.91

Last
6 mth
avg
82.67
85.76
74.93
80.70
77.85
80.38
73.17
78.74
67.73
80.47
89.47
87.35
70.06
81.26

Cost
1.18
0.77
1.06
0.89
0.99
0.12
0.35
0.68
0.03
(0.64)
0.69
0.56
0.59
0.94

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.53
0.25
0.29
0.61
0.11
0.71
0.23
0.51
0.28
0.46
0.46
(0.20)
0.30
0.41

Rank
5
4
3
3
3
5
2
3
3
5
4
4
3
1

105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Dec. Roll Over

SUNPHARMA

RANBAXY

PIRHEALTH

ORCHIDCHEM

OPTOCIRCUI

MAX

LUPIN

GLAXO

FORTIS

DRREDDY

DIVISLAB

CIPLA

BIOCON

AUROPHARMA

6mth AVG

PHARMA stocks have seen a dip in rolls at 72% well below avg. with C-o-C of the majority of stocks positive
suggesting profit booking :

CIPLA rolls at 80% versus 75% (6-month avg.) with C-o-C improving. Technically, the stock consolidating above
50 DMA 312 implying long rolled, if holds above can retest highs of 337-338 levels.

SUNPHARMA in line with average rolls to the tune of 82% with C-o-C improve, implying longs rolled with price
charts suggesting strength, with stock holding lows of 486-488 levels, if holds above this level expect to retest
511-525 levels.

Overall the sector will be market performer, should be a buyer at every dip.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 15

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

POWER
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)

Symbol
ADANIPOWER
AREVAT&D
BFUTILITIE
CESC
JPPOWER
JSWENERGY
NEYVELILIG
NHPC
NTPC
POWERGRID
PTC
RECLTD
RELINFRA
RPOWER
SUZLON
TATAPOWER

63.50
165.75
284.40
197.00
36.55
37.50
72.45
17.90
160.65
100.00
39.40
149.35
344.15
72.20
17.65
88.50

Future

(14.65)
(19.38)
(18.46)
(22.88)
6.10
(8.87)
(0.62)
(20.97)
0.37
3.95
(16.97)
(18.48)
(14.05)
(17.39)
(23.92)
(4.68)

64.00
162.10
287.20
198.95
37.00
37.90
73.40
18.15
162.20
101.05
39.90
150.70
347.35
72.70
17.60
88.20

Basis

Dec.
Roll
Over

TGT

0.50
(3.65)
2.80
1.95
0.45
0.40
0.95
0.25
1.55
1.05
0.50
1.35
3.20
0.50
(0.05)
(0.30)

58
146
266
184
38 / 39
35
67
17
170
102
40
140 /135
318
67
16
82

Last
6 mth
avg

81.39
53.64
82.37
77.21
80.96
87.83
74.84
83.44
87.23
77.67
80.46
68.26
79.47
83.86
90.73
74.24

87.30
83.93
84.23
84.16
86.00
76.25
87.44
92.93
87.25
73.22
90.42
77.77
87.11
88.39
89.23
75.65

Cost

Last
6 mth
Cost

0.79
(2.20)
0.98
0.99
1.23
1.07
1.31
1.40
0.96
1.05
1.27
0.90
0.93
0.69
(0.28)
(0.34)

0.40
0.50
0.59
0.32
0.52
0.39
0.04
0.04
0.31
0.15
0.31
(0.34)
0.20
0.26
0.37
0.10

Rank
5
3
3
3
2
5
5
5
1
1
5
4
5
5
4
4

Dec. Roll Over

TATAPOWER

SUZLON

RPOWER

RELINFRA

RECLTD

PTC

POWERGRID

NTPC

NHPC

NEYVELILIG

JSWENERGY

JPPOWER

CESC

BFUTILITIE

AREVAT&D

ADANIPOWER

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

6mth AVG.

POWER stocks saw a dip in rolls well below its six month avg. rolls at 79%, in line with market wide, with majority
stocks C-o-C negative to flat, clearly suggesting stock struggling at higher levels.

POWERGRID witness above avg. roll over of 78%, stock has formed a crucial support band of 97-99, if hold
above can retest higher levels of 102-104 levels.

NTPC 87% in line with avg., with C-o-C improving stock has closed at crucial support zone of 154-155 (where
multiple supports are present) if sustains above it can retest next resistance levels of 163-166.

Overall the sector may be a market underperformer; as lot of stocks losing buying interest.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 16

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

REALITY
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)

Symbol
DLF
HDIL
IBREALEST
SOBHA
UNITECH

186.65
53.70
47.20
197.20
19.40

(4.53)
(19.37)
(24.60)
(11.33)
(20.16)

Future
186.65
54.25
47.55
197.70
19.55

Bais
0.55
0.35
0.50
0.15

TGT
200
56
42
200
20

Dec.
Roll
Over

Last
6 mth
avg

88.43
80.81
77.69
85.61
78.89

86.12
85.05
84.36
82.88
83.74

Cost
1.02
0.74
0.25
0.77

Last
6 mth
Cost
(0.23)
0.54
0.54
0.04
0.59

Rank
3
3
3
2
3

90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
DLF

HDIL

IBREALEST
Dec. Roll Over

SOBHA

UNITECH

6mth AVG.

REALTY Sector has seen below avg. rolls, with struggling to form a bottom, at 82% below with its 6-month avg. at
84%, however some of stocks one should watch for:

DLF 88% positions rolled, in line with avg. However improving cost and stock closing at strong support zone of
180-185 where multiple bottoms exist, if holds above expect further higher levels of 202-203 where 20 DMA is
placed.

SOBHA also saw above avg. rolls of 86% (improving cost) against an avg. of 83%; with stock yet again
rebounding from crucial support of 180-182, if manages to sustain above it expect it to move north wards to 217218 levels where multiple resistance are placed.

Overall expect the sector market under performer with DLF to outperform their peers.

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Page No: 17

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

SUGAR

Symbol
BAJAJHIND
BALRAMCHIN
RENUKA

%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)
23.70
(18.56)
33.85
(26.09)
24.75
(21.68)

Future
23.95
34.20
25.00

Basis

TGT

0.25
0.35
0.25

25
32
24

Dec.
Roll
Over
86.71
90.89
87.26

Last
6 mth
avg
87.23
86.28
88.10

Cost
1.05
1.03
1.01

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.56
0.46
0.66

Rank
3
4
3

105

90

75
BAJAJHIND

BALRAMCHIN
Dec. Roll Over

RENUKA

6mth AVG.

SUGAR stocks saw pick up in roll at 88%, clearly trading interest coming back, majority Sugar stock seen aggressive
rolls with stock C-o-C decline, all have closed near to 52-week lows or made fresh 52 week lows, BALRAMPUR CHINI
which has seen an aggressive short rolls at 90% Vs, avg. 86%; with stock trading around at 32-33 new lows, if breaks
below it can lead to 28-29 levels.

Technically oversold expect some rebound, rallies use to exit, overall the sector will be a market underperformer.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


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Page No: 18

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

TECHNOLOGY
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)

Symbol
3IINFOTECH
COREEDUTEC
EDUCOMP
FINANTECH
HCLTECH
HEXAWARE
INFY
MPHASIS
OFSS
PATNI
POLARIS
ROLTA
TCS
TECHM
WIPRO

12.00
251.60
190.40
525.15
387.85
74.65
2,742.10
296.30
1,853.35
436.90
120.20
55.20
1,165.70
580.30
398.35

Future

(38.14)
(5.34)
(1.75)
(6.17)
(1.83)
(14.00)
2.13
(6.20)
(8.02)
(0.23)
(1.31)
(4.00)
6.72
2.35
6.97

Basis

12.15
255.55
190.85
531.20
390.20
75.30
2,763.65
299.25
1,877.20
436.55
121.40
55.90
1,172.50
576.30
399.60

0.15
3.95
0.45
6.05
2.35
0.65
21.55
2.95
23.85
(0.35)
1.20
0.70
6.80
(4.00)
1.25

TGT

Dec.
Roll
Over

10
245
200
500
410
63
3,300
310
1,680
445
3
56
1,158
500
350

Last
6 mth
avg

83.79
96.77
83.89
83.17
68.27
82.93
76.60
81.75
89.68
55.14
69.99
79.44
76.81
63.88
85.24

88.92
63.84
88.01
89.42
80.14
87.50
78.25
81.25
91.33
70.85
85.83
77.93
77.27
73.97
75.25

Last
6 mth
Cost

Cost
1.25
1.57
0.24
1.15
0.61
0.87
0.79
1.00
1.29
(0.08)
1.00
1.27
0.58
(0.69)
0.31

0.12
(1.74)
0.46
0.48
0.51
(0.08)
0.46
0.70
0.73
0.92
(0.23)
0.77
0.15
0.30
0.23

Rank
5
3
3
4
3
5
1
3
4
3
3
3
3
4
4

105
90
75
60
45
30
15

Dec. Roll Over

WIPRO

TECHM

TCS

ROLTA

POLARIS

PATNI

OFSS

MPHASIS

INFY

HEXAWARE

HCLTECH

FINANTECH

EDUCOMP

COREEDUTEC

3IINFOTECH

6mth ROLLS

TECHNOLOGY sector rolls below market wide at 73%, also below its 6-month average, however stocks like

INFOSYS has shown 77% in line with 6mth avg. with C-o-C improving. Technically, the stock is showing lot of
consolidation between 2685-2723 levels. If closes above 200 DMA at 2755 can move further north to 2945.

Large cap WIPRO saw aggressive rollover of 85% with Cost positive; technically stock closing forming crucial
support band 390-392 where multiple bottoms placed, if moves above 403 20 DMA it can head towards 415.

Overall the sector is seeing some buying interest should be bought at dips .

Aditya Birla Money Limited


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Page No: 19

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

TELECOM

%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)

Symbol
BHARTIARTL
IDEA
MTNL
ONMOBILE
RCOM
TATACOMM
TTML
TULIP

340.95
80.15
22.95
63.40
68.10
213.05
11.95
107.25

(10.36)
(15.14)
(12.24)
(5.02)
(4.69)
15.85
(15.85)
(13.82)

Future
343.25
80.30
23.40
64.15
68.65
215.50
12.20
108.80

Basis
2.30
0.15
0.45
0.75
0.55
2.45
0.25
1.55

TGT

Dec.
Roll
Over

357
74
20
60
63 /61
210
11 /10.5
100 / 94

72.92
72.24
89.57
71.18
80.41
91.37
71.16
43.60

Last
6 mth
avg

Cost

79.06
79.92
90.73
80.72
87.99
85.41
89.33
78.33

0.67
0.19
1.96
1.18
0.81
1.15
2.09
1.45

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.44
0.15
0.83
0.59
0.53
0.55
0.79
0.24

Rank
2
3
5
5
5
1
5
5

100
80
60
40
20

Dec. Roll Over

TULIP

TTML

TATACOMM

RCOM

ONMOBILE

MTNL

IDEA

BHARTIARTL

6mth AVG.

TELECOM sector showing a dip, roll over below 6-month average, below the market wide at 74% rolls. Convenient

BHARTI saw well below avg. roll of 73% (with cost improve), implying stock has seen profit booking; stock trying
to form a strong bottom 320-327, if stays above will retest 20 DMA 355 levels.

TATACOMM has seen above avg. rolls of 91%, with improving Cost of carry; with stock trading above 200 DMA
209-210 levels, if holds above this levels, may retest higher levels of 235.

With the majority of stocks showing decline in cost, suggesting Telecom may underperform Nifty, any exposure
towards telecom, should be tripped on rallies.

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Page No: 20

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

TEXTILES
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)

Symbol
ABIRLANUVO
ALOKTEXT
ARVIND
BOMDYEING
BRFL
PANTALOONR
RAYMOND
SKUMARSYNF

745.60
18.05
66.80
353.70
274.55
128.45
305.65
24.10

(17.20)
2.27
(24.26)
(3.82)
27.17
(36.77)
(19.75)
(19.53)

Future
751.05
18.25
67.30
357.00
276.95
129.30
309.55
24.50

Basis
5.45
0.20
0.50
3.30
2.40
0.85
3.90
0.40

Dec.
Roll
Over

TGT
720 / 700
20
72
385
290
125
280/ 270
22.5

83.64
91.56
65.88
74.25
38.08
85.68
93.49
80.95

Last
6 mth
avg
89.72
93.48
77.57
83.69
68.47
94.57
80.64
89.57

Cost
0.73
1.11
0.75
0.93
0.87
0.66
1.28
1.66

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.31
0.49
0.32
0.56
(0.19)
0.73
0.755
0.19

Rank
3
2
1
2
3
4
5
4

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ABIRLANUVO ALOKTEXT

ARVIND

BOMDYEING
Dec. Roll Over

BRFL

PANTALOONR RAYMOND SKUMARSYNF

6mth AVG.

TEXTILE sector saw below average rolls at 76% lower than market wide at 78%, however some of pure textile play
stocks like:

ALOKTEXT saw rolls of 91% (Cost increase) implying long rolled, stock forming a strong bottom at 17-17.20 if
holds above can retest 19-20 levels; if manages to move past it, expect to retest 22 levels.

BRFL another mid cap with 38% rolls, Cost increasing short squeezed; Technically counter closing above
resistance zone 266-270 ( multiple tops existed), if sustains above will retest higher levels of 296.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


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Page No: 21

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

TRANSPORT
%
Spot Change
(M-O-M)
391.80
(0.53)
186.50
(13.68)
75.45
(24.89)
172.00
(30.90)
21.25
(15.51)
16.05
(25.52)
48.70
(18.08)

Symbol
ABGSHIP
GESHIP
GTOFFSHORE
JETAIRWAYS
KFA
MLL
SCI

Future

Basis
6.45

398.25
187.45
76.65
173.55
21.35
16.25
49.30

Dec.
Roll
Over
97.14
82.65
68.74
81.74
78.66
83.20
87.09

TGT

0.95
1.20
1.55
0.10
0.20
0.60

412
179
73
164
24
15
50

Last
6 mth
avg
91.24
67.22
92.84
79.39
88.63
89.27
91.44

Cost
1.65
0.51
1.59
0.90
0.47
1.25
1.23

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.46
0.18
0.73
0.57
0.95
0.81
(0.14)

Rank
2
3
5
2
2
5
3

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Dec. Roll Over

SCI

MLL

KFA

JETAIRWAYS

GTOFFSHORE

GESHIP

ABGSHIP

6mth AVG.

TRANSPORT sector saw pick up in rolls at 83% above the market wide, with majority stocks decline in
C-o-C implying shorts rolled, however few counters saw long positions rolled like:

KFA saw rolls at 79% with cost positive, implying short squeeze, Technically stock trying to form a bottom around
20-21 levels, if holds above it, stock would head towards 23-24 levels.

ABGSHIP continues to see aggressive rollover of 97% with C-o-C improve, stock has closed near to its crucial
support levels of 380-381 levels where 200 DMA is placed; if moves past this level, can move to next level of 410;
any technical correction one should enter at dips.

Overall the sector will be a market underperformer.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


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Page No: 22

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

DIVERSIFIED
%
Spot Change
M-O-M
313.00
(2.37)
298.75
(2.50)
57.30
(21.67)
300.20
(9.14)
346.80
(18.31)
384.75
(3.47)
88.20
(27.88)
771.35
2.10
124.20
5.25
62.10
(35.11)
20.25 -8.78378
28 -20.1141
81.05 -32.4302

Symbol
ADANIENT
COALINDIA
DELTACORP
GITANJALI
GUJFLUORO
HAVELLS
JISLJALEQS
JUBLFOOD
MUNDRAPORT
SINTEX
SOUTHBANK
STRTECH
VIPIND

Future

Basis

315.85
301.45
57.70
306.20
349.90
384.05
88.55
768.85
117.95
62.5
20.5
28.55
81.3

TGT

2.85
2.70
0.40
6.00
3.10
(0.70)
0.35
-2.5
-6.25
0.40
0.25
0.55
0.25

337
315
58
280
355
340
103
750
126
60
19
31
84

Dec.
Roll
Over
81.92
79.21
79.36
86.21
88.92
71.18
84.77
86.46
80.17
87.45
57.29
67.51
76.94

Last
6 mth
avg
85.99
76.79
83.39
85.30
94.60
78.67
87.67
81.32
81.02
80.23
74.33
85.40
78.57

Cost
0.91
0.90
0.70
2.00
0.89
(0.18)
0.40
-0.32
-5.03
0.64
1.23
1.96
0.31

Last
6 mth
Cost
0.30
0.11
0.67
0.79
0.62
0.56
0.26
0.22
0.55
0.57
0.80
0.72
-0.26

Rank
3
1
3
5
3
5
2
3
3
4
5
2
3

Dec. Roll Over

VIPIND

STRTECH

SOUTHBANK

SINTEX

MUNDRAPORT

JUBLFOOD

JISLJALEQS

HAVELLS

GUJFLUORO

GITANJALI

DELTACORP

COALINDIA

ADANIENT

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

6mth AVG.

Among Diversified as we can see, stocks have seen in line with avg. rolls, majority on short side with exception like
COALINDIA, which has seen well above avg. M-O-M to the tune of 79% versus 76%, with C-o-C improving,
suggesting long roll, also with stock trying to form a strong bottom 291-293 zone, if holds above it to retest higher
levels of 310-315 levels.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400

Page No: 23

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

Research Team
Vivek Mahajan

Hemant Thukral

Head of Research

Head Derivatives Desk

022-42333522

022-42333483

vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com

hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com

Fundamental Team
Avinash Nahata

Head of Fundamental Desk

022-42333459

avinash.nahata@adityabirla.com

Akhil Jain

Metals & Mining

022-42333540

akhil.jain@adityabirla.com

Sunny Agrawal

FMCG/Cement

022-42333458

sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com

Sumit Jatia

Banking & Finance

022-42333460

sumit.jatia@adityabirla.com

Shreyans Mehta

Construction/Real Estate

022-42333544

shreyans.m@adityabirla.com

Dinesh Kumar

Information Technology/Auto

022-42333531

dinesh.kumar.k@adityabirla.com

Pradeep Parkar

Database/Production

022-42333597

pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com

Rizwan Khan

Technical and Derivative Strategist

022-42333454

rizwan.khan@adityabirla.com

Jyoti Nangrani

Sr. Technical Analyst

022-42333454

jyoti.nangrani@adityabirla.com

Raghuram

Technical Analyst

022-42333537

raghuram.p@adityabirla.com

Rahul Tendolkar

Derivatives Analyst

022-42333532

rahul.tendolkar@adityabirla.com

Amit Somani

Derivative Analyst

022-42333532

amit.somani@adityabirla.com

Indranil Dutta

Advisory Desk HNI

022-42333494

indranil.dutta@adityabirla.com

Suresh Gardas

Advisory Desk

022-42333535

suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com

Sandeep Pandey

Advisory Desk

022-30442104

sandeep.pandey@adityabirla.com

Quantitative Team

Advisory Support

ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR

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Page No: 24

Aditya Birla Money

30 December 2011

Disclaimer:
This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient.
No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other
person.Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This
document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or
solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of
such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements.
The information , opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of
appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on
the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML) nor any
person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions
expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited
or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion,
revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee
and does not indicate or guide to future performance.
Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the
appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for
general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of
and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the
categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice
and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision.
Aditya Birla Money Limited, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time
may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in
any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation
mentioned in the document or may have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and /
related information and opinions.

Aditya Birla Money Limited


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Page No: 25