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44.20.7050.6641
Nicholas Pickens
44.20.7050.6646
nicholas.pickens@canaccordadams.com Specialists from Latin America in narrow-
vein, high-value mining
BUY
Figure 1: Production and cash flow growth (2003-2012E)
HOC : LSE : £3.95
60 300
TARGET PRICE: £4.50
50 250
40 200
Inside
Company Overview ..................................... 3 30 150
Valuation ..................................................... 7
Application of Funds ..........................13 20 100
Investment Risks ................................13
Company History and Structure ..............15 10 50
Company Assets .......................................17
Peru .....................................................17 0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
Mexico .................................................29
Silver Production Gold and base metals (Ag equiv)
Argentina .............................................34 EBITDA Cash from Operations
Market Position.........................................37
Silver Market Overview ............................41 Source: Canaccord Adams estimates, company data
Share price data COB 22 January 2007. We initiate coverage on Hochschild Mining with a BUY recommendation. HOC is a
silver and gold mining company with over 40 years of experience and was the fourth-
largest producer of primary silver in the world in 2005 with production totaling 10.5
million ounces of silver plus 232,000 ounces of gold. We expect silver production to
increase by at least 95% thru 2009, Figure 1.
We set our initiating target price for 2007 at £4.50 based on our analysis of comparable
company financials, which suggests a current price of £3.67 rising to £4.82 in 2008; a
10 times multiple of cash, which suggests a price of £3.68 for 2007 rising to £5.15 in
2008; and our NAV estimate of £3.55/share based on our expectation of declining
commodity prices. With current precious metal prices carried forward, our NAV
estimate for the stock is £4.80/share.
Canaccord Adams is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Capital Inc. (CCI : TSX|AIM)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal,
independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important
information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit
http://www.canaccordadams.com/research/Disclosure.htm.
360
350
340
330
02-Nov 07-Nov 12-Nov 17-Nov 22-Nov 27-Nov 02-Dec 07-Dec 12-Dec
COMPANY OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
Hochschild Mining is a silver and gold mining company with over 40 years of experience
in mining precious metals. It has 3,100 employees, three operating mining assets in
Peru, one advanced mining project in each of Peru, Argentina and Mexico, and one early
stage project in Mexico, Figure 2. The Group was the fourth largest producer of primary
silver in the world in 2005 with production totaling 10.5 million ounces of silver (plus
232,000 ounces of gold) and has seen production expand by 80% over the previous three
years. The company is focused on high-grade, mid-scale underground mining with
production in 2005 recovered from narrow-vein ore grading on average, 373g/t of silver
and 4.98g/t gold. The company’s policy is to mine at life of mine grades in all operations
and not to hedge product prices.
Management has plans to diversify and further increase production in the near term, in
the case of silver by at least 95% through 2009 via a combination of expansions to
existing operations and project development. In addition, the company plans to pursue
value accretive acquisitions, initially with a target value in the range US$150-250
million. This would see the company evolve from its current configuration of 100%
dependence on three Peruvian operations to at least seven separate mines in three
countries where less than 50% of production would be from Peru. With the seven mines
in Figure 2 fully developed, we calculate that the company’s share of precious metal
production could double from 24.4 million ounces of silver equivalent in 2005 to more
than 50 million ounces silver equivalent over the next five years.
There also appear to be significant production growth opportunities beyond the seven
mines in Figure 2. The company’s development pipeline holds interests in at least 20
other properties, ranging from prospects to defined targets across four countries in Latin
America: Mexico, Peru, Argentina and Chile. Argentina ranks highly in the company’s
development plans because of the geological reality of the eastern slopes of the Andes
despite limited past mining activity. Peru, Mexico and Chile on the other hand have
significant and widely documented mining potential.
• PROFITABILITY – derived from its focus on high margin operations which target
cash costs of less than US$2.5/oz of silver equivalent and a capital cost of US$1/oz
silver equivalent of developed reserve. It has posted cash operating margins in the
range of 45-50% of revenue over the last three years, before administration,
exploration and other expenses.
The company listed on the main board of the London Stock Exchange in November 2006
as Hochschild Mining plc (HOC), with a free float of 29% of the company’s stock, 25% as
new issue plus a further 4% of secondary shares as part of the “greenshoe” at listing.
Money raised is intended for expansion, development and acquisition and we expect the
company’s solid reputation in the region to help add to the expansion opportunities
already in the pipeline.
The company came to market because it saw possible project development opportunities
in the region exceeding its own cash flow. We expect the funds raised to bring forward
planned project development, while in our view, the company is also likely to use its now
publicly traded shares as acquisition currency to enhance organic growth via value
accretive acquisitions consistent with the company’s growth strategy.
The company also appears to have a different approach to exploration from many major
mining companies. We believe its long-term and sustained commitment to exploration,
Revenue
Silver $000's 132,604 168,169 287,112 292,670 265,981 265,981 265,981
Gold $000's 121,279 133,553 174,162 127,794 113,140 113,140 113,140
Zinc $000's - - - 73,479 104,127 89,665 89,665
Lead $000's - - - 10,589 19,000 19,000 19,000
Copper $000's - - - 3,195 4,888 4,213 4,213
Total revenue $000's 253,883 301,722 461,273 507,728 507,135 491,999 491,999
Revenue split
Silver % 52.2 55.7 62.2 57.6 52.4 54.1 54.1
Gold % 47.8 44.3 37.8 25.2 22.3 23.0 23.0
Zinc % - - - 14.5 20.5 18.2 18.2
Lead % - - - 2.1 3.7 3.9 3.9
Copper % - - - 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
With this style of mineralisation, we believe there is little value for investors in life-of-
mine reserve delineation – the classic porphyry model for North America, for example.
Hochschild’s targeted mineralisation does not lend itself to such a practice while over 20
years of proven reserve and resource replenishment suggests it is unnecessary. For each
of the 15 years since 1990, the company’s current practices of reserve delineation have,
on average, more than replaced its expanding production over that period, see
“Company Assets” section for more details.
which, in our view, increases management focus on reserves and resources and, in turn,
enhances cash flow and profitability.
Shares on issue x mill 307.4 307.4 307.4 307.4 307.4 307.4 307.4
Earnings per share $/share 0.24 0.28 0.35 0.34 0.31 0.30 0.31
VALUATION
Net Asset Value
We have derived a range of values for the net assets of Hochschild Mining plc using a
sum-of-the-parts, net present value based calculation for each of the current and planned
operations, Figure 6, based on a discount rate of 10%. In addition, we have ascribed a
value to all defined targets and prospects not included in our cash flow analysis at a
nominal 20% of the estimated value of producing assets. A total contribution of 20% is
what we believe to be reasonable for up to 25 prospects with similar geological
characteristics to producing assets but with, as yet, limited drill confirmation of
mineralisation. We have not applied a completion risk to the present value of advanced
projects given that they are in the later stages of development and given management’s
experience and record of bringing on new projects.
Our current base-case, net asset value for the company is £3.55/share based on our
commodity price assumptions and a £/US$ exchange rate of 1.91, Figure 6. The
commodity price assumptions that underpin this valuation are shown in Figure 7 while
our “high” and “low” case valuations in Figure 6 have been derived from a 10% variation
in commodity prices. Our analysis shows our valuation varies by 19% for a 10% change
in the profile of key commodity prices.
Some might argue for a lower discount rate than our 10% per annum given that more
than 70% of the company’s revenue is derived from gold and silver – both a natural
hedge against inflation and seen to be a store of value in more difficult economic times.
An 8% discount rate against our estimated project cash flows would deliver a value for
the company of £3.88/share compared to our mid-point £3.55/share at a 10%pa discount
in Figure 6, while a 5% per annum discount rate would deliver a value of £4.48/share.
Figure 8 presents such parameters for Hochschild Mining out to 2012 based on market
average multiples, see “Market Position” in this report, but with production restricted to
just the seven current and sanctioned operations in Figure 6. Clearly, we would expect
upside potential from other new projects and potential acquisitions:
• EBITDA is priced at 15 times also as an estimate of EV, with 15 being more or less
comparable to other silver and gold producers, Figures 39 and 40;
The average valuation for Hochschild Mining based on the four methods for 2007E is
£3.67/share, on our numbers, rising to £4.82/share for 2008.
It is important to note that our analysis also shows that expected growth in this company
from existing projects only, can offset our expected decline in gold and silver to
US$550/oz and US$9.50/oz respectively by 2010, and support a value for the company at
around £5.00/share over the next five years, Figures 8 and 9.
10.00
8.00
Market value (£/share)
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
In our opinion, this ability to offset the effect of declining commodity prices points to
significant possible upside in value for the shares if precious metal prices maintain
current levels or even appreciate further as some forecasters suggest.
If current precious metal prices were maintained then our £3.67/share valuation for
2007 would become £3.99/share, rising to £6.98/share by 2010 based on this
methodology.
As an aside, neither Yamana Gold nor Peter Hambro Mining appear expensive on our
numbers either compared to their peers given the production growth we estimate is on
offer. PEG ratios of 0.31 and 0.63 respectively, based on our production growth
estimates, would seem to support our claim, Figure 11. At a PEG ratio of 0.92,
Hochschild Mining is second only to Yamana and Peter Hambro Mining in terms of
attractively priced growth potential, on our estimates.
500,000 10.0
400,000 8.0
300,000 6.0
200,000 4.0
100,000 2.0
0 0.0
2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
We also price Hochschild’s shares on a multiple of net cash flow from operations.
Figures 12 and 13 show our estimates of Hochschild’s cash flow from operations with a
8% CAGR over the six years under review from US$149.7 million in 2006 to US$237.6
million in 2012, in spite of our expectations of declining commodity prices.
We have priced the stock each year to 2012 at 10 times cash flow for that year and
added the previous year’s cash balance. We suggest a multiple of 10 is appropriate given
Hochschild is primarily a silver producer, which as a precious/industrial metal places it
between base metal producers that trade around 8 times and platinum producers that
trade around 12 times net cash flow. Based on our estimate of US$164.4 million as cash
flow from operations in 2007 and a cash balance of US$518 million at year end 2006,
we estimate an appropriate market price for Hochschild Mining at £3.68/share, Figure
13. Subsequent to raising $514 million in November 2006, we estimate IPO expenses
absorbed $15 million while the company reduced debt by $40 million.
Conclusion
In summary, the three valuation methods have delivered indications of a current market
price for the stock in the range £3.55 - 3.68 per share. At the low end of the range is our
NAV for the company at £3.55/share based on declining commodity price projections but
note that the methodology also indicates a value of £4.80/share if current precious metal
prices are carried forward or £4.21/share with a commodity price profile just 10%
higher than we are forecasting.
Near the top end of the range is a current market value of £3.67/share based on
comparable market parameters - the market value of production, EV/EBITDA and price/
earnings multiples – a method which also suggests a comparable market price in 2008 of
£4.82/share.
Also at the top end of our valuation range we have a current market price of £3.68/share
based on a multiple of 10 times 2007E cash flow from operations, rising to £5.15/share
based on 2008E cash flow.
Although the current price for Hochschild Mining stock at £3.95/share may have
captured a little of the underlying future growth that we see in this company, we suggest
a market price of £4.50/share during 2007 can be justified on the basis of value that we
believe is yet to be extracted from existing operations and projects.
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
INVESTMENT RISKS
The following comprise risks to our target price and rating.
Mining risk
We note that Hochschild Mining is ISO 14001 certified on all its mines. However, there are
inherent dangers associated with underground, narrow vein mining. Extraction is difficult
and the process is carried out in an environment that is not always predictable. Whilst the
management team and mine operators may be effective in identifying risks and well able to
take measures in order to mitigate them, it is impossible to remove the possibility of an
unexpected event occurring that could impact on the operation of a mine. There are also
risks associated with the use of mining contractors for operations, although the company
employs a number of mining contracting companies and is not over reliant on one company.
Development risk
A proportion of the company’s value lies in the development of new projects which carry
a completion risk. Delays in the development schedule or increases in capital
requirements for example, may negatively impact our suggested valuation range.
Country risk
There are risks associated with unforeseen political intervention, such as an increase in
royalties, restriction on business practices, changes in permitting legislation or
expropriation of mineral assets and operations. Following a year of elections, some
investors may feel increasing uncertainty over the changing political face of Latin
America, particularly those whom perceive a movement towards the left and are wary of
nationalisation. We note that Peru has a democratic government, recently voting in a
moderate-left politician Alan Garcia as President over the more extreme Peruvian
Nationalist Party. In Mexico, leader of the conservative National Action Party Felipe
Calderon was declared winner of presidential elections in July 2006, with victory over
his left-wing rival and in Argentina, the current government, led by left-leaning Nestor
Kirchner, has been in power since 2003. Although much improved, all three countries
have some history of social unrest and there are risks associated with the transition to a
new government.
Economic risk
Our suggested valuation range is impacted by our long-term price assumptions for silver,
gold, copper, lead and zinc. We have indicated the impact of price on our valuation
using low, medium and high price scenarios (Valuation section). Our net present value
calculation assumes a discount rate of 10% per annum; however should the weighted
average cost of capital differ our estimated value range would also change. Peru
experienced high inflation rates, exchange rate instability in the 1980s and 1990s and
Argentina fell into deep recession and economic collapse in 2001. A re-occurrence of
these environments could impact our valuation range.
COMPANY HISTORY
The Hochschild name is synonymous with mining in South America. The Group was
founded in Chile nearly 100 years ago, with operations largely focused on the
commercialisation of some of the world’s largest mines in Chile. The company expanded
into Bolivian tin mining following World War II and later acquired Mantos Blancos in Chile
during the 1970s; this was subsequently sold to Anglo American in 1984 along with most
of the Group’s other South American operations.
Luis Hochschild (father of the current CEO Eduardo Hochschild) in the same year that all
South American operations were sold to Anglo American, bought back the Peruvian
operations. The Arcata mine in Peru, which commenced production in 1964, is still
operated by the company today. Eduardo Hochschild became head of Hochschild Mining
in 1998 and under his guidance the company began extensive exploration on its prospects
in Peru. Mining commenced at Sipán in 1997 followed by commissioning of the Ares
sliver-gold mine in 1998 while the Selene operation commenced in 2003.
In 2001, the Group began building its project portfolio and extending its asset base outside
Peru. It opened an exploration office in Mexico, followed by further offices in Argentina
and Chile in 2003 and 2004 respectively.
CORPORATE STRUCTURE
UK plc
100%
UK Hold co
Compañia
Minera
Suyamarcs
COMPANY ASSETS
Hochschild Mining owns and operates three silver-gold underground mines in southern
Peru, Arcata, Ares and Selene, which produced 10.5 million ounces of silver and 232.6
thousand ounces of gold during 2005. The company also has a majority interest in two
advanced development projects, San José in Argentina and Pallancata in Peru plus two
early-stage development projects in Mexico, Moris and San Felipe. In addition the
company has long-term prospects throughout Latin America (Figure 16).
Selene Mine
Cerro Blanco Arcata Mine
Pallancata Ares Mine
Tincos xx Paraiso
San Andrés Frontera
Minaspata Azuca Tacna
San Martín
Paracoya
Julia
Quevar
Cerro Blanco
Ambargasta
Sierra de las Minas
Legend
x Mine
Resource delineation
Development
Puesto Chacón
Target definition
Prospect San José
Producing assets
Projects
PERU
Peru is central to the company’s current production capabilities. All three operating mines
owned by the company are located in close proximity in Southern Peru while Pallancata,
one of the advanced development projects, is adjacent to the Selene mine and thus offers
synergy benefits. The properties lie between 4,600-5,000 metres above sea-level in the
Puquio-Cayollma Belt and all the deposits display similar mineralisation characteristics.
Arcata and Selene each produce a silver concentrate with contained gold, while Ares
produces a refined silver-gold doré. The Selene mine has been producing doré since
October 2006 and thus retaining more downstream value from its mined products.
The company also owns the Sipán mine, which closed in 2004, and holds rights for eight
other prospects in Peru, including San Martin, located between Arcata and Selene.
Hochschild also previously owned the Caylloma silver mine, but sold the property to
Fortune Silver Mines in June 2005.
!(
Selene (! Pallancata
Arcata
Ares
Geology
The deposits are located in the Puquio-Caylloma Belt and are associated with Cenozoic
volcanic deposits and intrusions. The style of mineralisation is typically epithermal – ore
zones within volcanic host rocks and related to mineralised quartz vein systems. Target
vein structures lie within Tertiary-age volcanics and are associated with several episodes of
mineralization, which accounts for slight variations in relative abundances of precious
metals observed between different deposits. Average vein thicknesses range between 0.8-
4.0 metres in width and the majority of vein systems that are included in the resource base
tend to be silver rich, although local variations do occur with areas of lower silver:gold
ratios. The unique characteristics of epithermal orebodies have a strong bearing on the
method by which these deposits are defined and developed:
• Mining of narrow vein deposits is inherently difficult and dilution of ore with host rock
is inevitable. The extent to which the ore is diluted is a function of vein width, the host
rock competency and of course the skill of the mining team. For some of the narrow
vein systems, dilution can be upward of 30%.
These deposits are often typecast as costly and dangerous to mine. However, Hochschild
has a proven track record and narrow vein mining expertise built on 40 years of mining
experience. Further, it has a strong safety record in these operations.
In Peru, the company has a strategy of exploring new ground within the concession area
and adjacent to mines, often the best place to find additional resources. Preliminary work
is typically undertaken with long surface drill holes to define an inferred resource – the
company currently has several contracted diamond drill rigs around the Peruvian
operations.
In our view, the ability of the company to more than replace production with reserves
consistently over the last 15 years goes some way towards mitigating any risk that might
be attributed by some to a relatively short life-of-mine proven reserve. We note the
company has more than replaced production year-on-year since production of the mines
began, Figure 18. On average, over all of the company’s operations since mining began,
the company has replaced 37% of total reserves by new reserves each year. With a three
year proven reserve, the company has produced 33% of its reserves each year while
adding 37% of its proven reserve.
Figure 18: Reserve replacement (LHS: Ore in Kt, RHS: Life of mine in years)
Arcata Ares Selene
Ore ('000 Lif e of Mine Ore ('000 Lif e of Mine Ore ('000 Lif e of Mine
t onnes) (Yrs) t onnes) (Y rs) tonnes) (Yrs)
2000 8.0 1200 7.0 1200 7.0
Our valuation of these mining assets is based partly on the life-of-mine discounted cash
flow. Given the company’s long history of replacing reserve ounces, in most cases we have
assumed a longer life-of-mine in our analysis than the current reserve statements would
suggest.
Figure 19: Peru – Proven and probable reserves (as at June 2006)
Reserves (Kt) Ag Au Ag Ag eq.
Proved Probable Total (g/t) (g/t) mmoz Mmoz
Selene Mine 763 37 799 377 3 10 4
Aracata Mine 647 283 930 462 1 14 2
Ares Mine 642 193 835 327 12 9 20
Pallancata Project - 643 643 263 1 5 1
Total 2,052 1,156 3,207 366 4 38 27
We note that since 1999, the company has applied the JORC classification system to delineate its reserves.
Prior to this, a Peruvian system was applied and this has resulted in some variation in the historical average
LOM of reserves.
Source: Company reports
Arcata Mine
Arcata is located in the Arequipa region of Peru, 800km from Lima, at an altitude of 4,400
metres and is 100% owned by Hochschild. The mine commenced production in 1964 and
production has averaged 4.3 million ounces of silver and 6.5 thousand ounces of gold per
year since 2003.
Three vein systems (The Mariana, Ramal 2 and Macarena) are currently being mined by
conventional, trackless cut-and-fill breast or overhand stoping methods with timber
supports. The veins have a minimum mining width of 0.8 metres and maximum of 3.0
metres. Each orebody has been accessed via discrete inclines and ramps to a depth of 500
metres. Ore is loaded from passes into 22t haulage trucks – distances to the plant are
between 4.5km and 5km depending on the system.
The processing facilities at Arcata have a capacity of 350ktpa of ore following an expansion
from 280ktpa in 1980. Two further expansions are planned, with throughput expected by
the company to increase to 420ktpa in January 2007 for a minimum of capital, perhaps as
little as US$200,000 and then expand by a further 25% to approximately 530ktpa in 2009
for a cost of US$10 million. Processing consists of a conventional crushing, grinding and
flotation circuit which produces a silver concentrate, containing approximately 400oz/t of
silver and gold in concentrate. Processing recoveries are relatively low compared to the
other two operations (~88.5% Ag and 83.5% Au) due to arsenic in the ore. We estimate
ongoing sustaining development of approximately US$6.0 million per annum, but we
expect full operating costs to fall from US$55/t at current throughput of 350ktpa to US$48/t
when fully developed at 530ktpa. Further detail is shown in Figure 21.
12 5
Gross Sales Revenue
4.5
10
4
3.5
8
3
6 2.5
2
4
1.5
1
2
0.5
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Silver Gold
Equiv Silver Production (Moz) - LHS
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Ag - RHS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 314 350 420 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530 530
Silver production 000's oz 4,754 4,581 5,640 8,143 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540 7,540
Gold production 000's oz 12 12 15 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Cash costs $/oz Ag 4.07 4.59 4.01 3.54 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
Cash costs $/oz Au 219 230 209 185 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214
Net sales $000's 56,476 61,543 69,734 93,406 75,299 75,293 75,288 75,285 75,284 75,282 75,282 75,281 75,281
Cash operating costs $000's 17,253 19,250 20,160 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440 25,440
EBITDA $000's 39,223 42,293 49,574 67,966 49,859 49,853 49,848 49,845 49,844 49,842 49,842 49,841 49,841
EBIT $000's 31,138 34,027 40,352 58,996 41,929 42,598 43,033 43,315 43,499 43,618 43,696 43,746 43,779
Net Profit $000's 20,554 22,462 26,636 38,943 27,678 28,119 28,406 28,593 28,714 28,793 28,844 28,877 28,899
Capex $000's 6,200 11,000 11,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000
Project cash flow $000's 22,439 30,727 35,859 47,913 35,608 35,374 35,222 35,123 35,058 35,017 34,989 34,972 34,960
Ares Mine
The 100% owned Ares concession was discovered in 1988 following interpretation of
aerial photography and covers over 22,700 hectares. In the early 1990s, geological
mapping, geochemical mapping, surface drilling and subsequent underground drilling
were undertaken. By 1995, at least two vein systems had been defined, including the
Victoria Vein, now being mined, and the Tanis Vein.
Mineralogy of the Ares ore is significantly different from both Arcata and Selene in that it
contains a much higher abundance of gold relative to silver. The operation was
commissioned in 1998 and produced 3.1 million ounces of contained metal in doré
during 2005 (2.9 million ounces of silver and 199 thousand ounces of gold).
The Victoria Vein system has a minimum designed mining width of 0.8 metres, a
maximum width of 15 metres and averages 2.13 metres in thickness. As with Arcata,
each system is accessed via discrete inclines which are connected underground to a
depth of 275 metres below surface. A conventional trackless cut-and-fill breast or
overhand stoping mining method is utilised. The ore is loaded from ore passes in to 22t
trucks and hauled 4km and 5km depending on the system. Dilution at Ares is
comparatively low at 10% or less owing to the competent wall-rock.
Ore is delivered to an on-site cyanide leaching plant which feeds pregnant solution to
Merril Crowe plant to produce doré; recoveries being achieved are approximately 93%
for silver and 96% for gold. The plant is currently operating at 280ktpa of ore, however
the company plans to increase throughput to 325ktpa in 2007, little more than a de-
bottlenecking exercise. We expect production to decrease slightly from current levels as
silver grades fall from around 410g/t to below 250g/t over the long-term, Figure 21.
300 350
Gross Sales Revenue
250 300
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50 50
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equiv Gold Production (koz) - LHS Silver Gold
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Au - RHS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 289 300 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325
Silver production 000's oz 2,688 2,870 2,915 2,235 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400
Gold production 000's oz 156 148 120 60 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Cash costs $/oz Ag 1.78 1.99 2.41 4.12 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42
Cash costs $/oz Au 96 99 126 215 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256
Net sales $000's 123,067 128,419 105,537 56,150 44,546 44,545 44,545 44,545 44,545 44,545 44,545 44,545 44,545
Cash operating costs $000's 19,661 20,400 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100 22,100
EBITDA $000's 103,406 108,019 83,437 34,050 22,446 22,445 22,445 22,445 22,445 22,445 22,445 22,445 22,445
EBIT $000's 99,223 104,006 79,603 30,333 18,805 18,854 18,886 18,906 18,920 18,928 18,934 18,938 18,940
Net Profit $000's 65,908 69,114 52,754 20,023 12,413 12,445 12,466 12,480 12,489 12,495 12,498 12,501 12,502
Capex $000's 3,900 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
Project cash flow $000's 66,190 73,128 56,588 23,740 16,054 16,037 16,026 16,019 16,014 16,011 16,009 16,008 16,007
Selene Mine
The Selene mine is 100% owned by the company and is located in Cotanuse District,
Figure 24: Selene Mine 650km from Lima and at an altitude of 4,600 metres above sea-level. Operations
commenced in November 2003.
Mineralised veins are relatively thin; in the Explorador system, thicknesses range from
0.8-5.0 metres and average around 2.0 metres. However, the ore body benefits from a
relatively competent host rock, reducing the risk of excessive dilution and based on
historical mining, a dilution factor of 10% is a reasonable assumption.
The Selene mine and concentrator currently have capacity of 350ktpa, however the
company plans to expand the plant to 700ktpa in 2007 so as to be able to treat 350ktpa
of ore from the nearby Pallancata project due for production from 2007. The plant will
then be expanded a further 180ktpa to 880ktpa so as to accommodate an expansion of
the Selene mining operation from 350ktpa to 530ktpa. We estimate the total cost of the
plant expansion at US$10 million, half of which will be allocated to the development cost
of Pallancata.
The Selene mine pays a 2% NSR royalty as a carried-interest royalty to its previous
owners but will benefit from the economies of scale through the plant when Pallancata
comes on stream from 2007.
7 6
Gross Sales Revenue
6 5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1 1
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Silver Gold
Equiv Silver Production (Moz) - LHS
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Ag - RHS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 360 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180
Silver production 000's oz 4,162 1,922 1,917 1,632 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685
Gold production 000's oz 28 13 13 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Cash costs $/oz Ag 2.83 3.08 2.71 3.48 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80
Cash costs $/oz Au 152 154 141 182 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220
Net sales $000's 60,771 30,377 27,786 19,520 14,986 14,982 14,979 14,977 14,976 14,975 14,975 14,975 14,974
Cash operating costs $000's 16,042 7,920 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948 6,948
EBITDA $000's 44,729 22,457 20,838 12,572 8,038 8,034 8,031 8,029 8,028 8,027 8,027 8,027 8,026
EBIT $000's 39,829 16,472 15,023 7,742 3,849 4,261 4,529 4,703 4,816 4,889 4,937 4,968 4,989
Net Profit $000's 26,291 13,573 15,306 10,499 7,929 8,202 8,378 8,493 8,568 8,617 8,648 8,669 8,682
Capex $000's 8,000 8,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Project cash flow $000's 23,191 19,558 21,121 15,329 12,119 11,975 11,881 11,820 11,780 11,755 11,738 11,727 11,720
Pallancata Project
In June 2006, Hochschild signed a joint venture agreement with International Minerals
Corporation (a TSX listed company) for 60% ownership of the Pallancata project – with
Hochschild as the operator. The deposit is located approximately 17km from the Selene
mine and is considered to be part of the same mineralised structure. Old colonial
workings are found in the concession area and current reserves of 643,267 tonnes at
263g/t silver and 1.09g/t gold are associated with a mineralised vein system stretching
over 2km along strike. Beyond the current resource, hosted by the “West Breccia”
structure, surface sampling programmes at more workings to the north have returned
promising results and constitute future exploration targets. The company intends to use
Pallancata ore to supplement feed to the Selene concentrator as the plant undergoes
expansion. The current mine plan envisages mining methods similar to the other
Peruvian operations; trackless cut-and-fill and overhand stoping. Mining widths will
range between 0.8-25 metres, averaging five metres. Three stopes are scheduled to
rotate in the production cycle and ore will be loaded on to 22t trucks and transported
directly to the primary crusher at Selene mine.
Initial construction permits were granted in August 2006 with first production scheduled to
commence in 2007. The total capital expenditure requirement will be US$10.5 million
being the JV share of the plant expansion at Selene plus approximately US$3.0 million per
annum for ongoing development. Costs for transporting ore from the mine to the plant at
Selene are estimated by us to be US$5/t of ore and this is included in the total estimated
operating cost of US$52/t of ore milled, which includes a management fee for the JV
operation of 10% of all generating costs to Hochschild Mining. The Selene operation should
also benefit from a processing margin on ore treated at the expanded Selene mill, which we
estimate will be US$11/t of ore above the cash cost of ore processing.
Other prospects
The company also holds rights to eight other targets in Peru, including the San Martin
prospect which lies between Arcata and Selene. Other prospects include La Colorada,
Tincos, Minaspata Azuca, Cerro Blanco, San Andrés, Frontera and Paraíso. There is also
further exploration potential at the companies, with a number of new vein systems
targeted for development.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 0 125 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520
Silver production 000's oz 0 784 3,955 3,955 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477 5,477
Gold production 000's oz 0 3 16 16 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Cash costs $/oz Ag 0.00 12.07 5.62 5.62 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05
Cash costs $/oz Au 0 604 293 294 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234
Net sales $000's 0 11,313 52,565 47,862 56,513 56,512 56,511 56,510 56,510 56,510 56,510 56,510 56,510
Cash operating costs $000's 0 11,309 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884 26,884
EBITDA $000's 0 4 25,681 20,978 29,629 29,628 29,627 29,626 29,626 29,626 29,626 29,626 29,626
EBIT $000's 0 -4,196 21,901 17,471 26,299 26,414 26,488 26,536 26,567 26,588 26,601 26,610 26,615
Net Profit $000's 0 -2,770 14,457 11,533 17,360 17,436 17,485 17,516 17,537 17,551 17,559 17,565 17,569
Capex $000's 10,500 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Project cash flow $000's -10,500 1,430 18,237 15,040 20,690 20,650 20,624 20,607 20,596 20,589 20,584 20,581 20,579
Infrastructure
Establishing and maintaining infrastructure at the Peruvian operations is challenging
owing to the sites’ remoteness, terrain and elevation (~5,000m). However, national grid
power supply is available and sufficient. Selene and Ares run from the grid and both
have standby generation. Arcata is also run from the grid but the operation can
generate only 33% of its required power from its stand by generators– the company is
considering additional generation capacity. In most cases, goods are transported to and
from mine site by a mixture of tarmac and good dirt roads from the nearest main city
and provincial capital, Arequipa. Arequipa is approximately 300km from Arcata, 285km
from Ares and 180km from Selene. The majority of goods (~80%) destined for Selene are
actually sourced from Lima, a distance of 650km.
The undeveloped Pallancatta Project has only basic infrastructure at this time. The
company has budgeted for installation of a new 12.5km transition line to run from
Selene at a cost of US$0.352 million. A new road is also planned at a cost of US$2 million
and this should improve access to Selene. It is expected that the workforce will be based
at Selene and transported to Pallancatta each day.
Fiscal Regime
Corporate tax is payable at a prima facie rate of 30% while royalties are charged on a
sliding scale at the pre-tax level: 1% of profit from US$0-60 million, 2% of profits
between US$60-120 million and 3% of profit thereafter.
The company has certain obligations regarding its closed operations in Peru, namely the
Sipán open pit. The mine generates acid mine drainage and this is currently being
treated at liming plants. The cost of water treatment for Sipán is approximately US$1.0
million a year. Environmental liabilities for the Peruvian assets are included in a mine
closure plan prepared by an independent party and approved by the local authority.
All three mining operations have tailings dam facilities, but with varying degrees of
remaining capacity. The mines are all located in high seismic risk areas and so
engineering design and monitoring requirements are strict under guidelines issued by
the Ministry of Energy and Mines and details of the tailings dam are included in the EIA.
At Arcata, the mine is on its sixth tailings dam; Dam No.6 can be lifted a further five
metres giving a remaining life of approximately eight years. The Ares mine tailings
facilities are currently near maximum height and have a life of only three years
remaining.
MEXICO
The company has rights over two advanced projects in Mexico via joint venture
partnerships. Hochschild has purchased the Moris silver-gold mine and related
concessions from Exmin and other parties. The company also has an option to acquire a
70% interest in San Felipe polymetallic project in northern Mexico in addition to rights
over several exploration prospects and targets.
Mina Moris
Moris is an epithermal deposit and mineralisation is predominately gold and silver with
Figure 29: Moris Resources minor lead and zinc sulphides hosted by conglomerates and volcanic breccias. Several
Kt Ag Au vein systems have been identified, but only the “El Creston” has been mined to date.
(g/t) (g/t) Vein thicknesses are up to approximately 10 metres – the average mining width for El
Measured 2,951 4 1.32
Indicated 404 3.7 1.24
Creston was 13 metres. Manhatten Minerals calculated a life of mine reserve of 4.0
Total 3,354 4.0 1.3 million tonnes at 1.9g/t gold and 8.75 g/t silver then following closure in 1999, the
Source: Company data company stated resources of 3.1 million tonnes at 1.9g/t and 6.6 g/t silver. Latest
attributable resource estimates updated by Hochschild are shown in Figure 29.
Mining is by open pit methods; the El Creston ore body, previously mined by Manhattan
was extracted through conventional blast, shovel and haulage techniques. The current
mine plan involves continuation of open pit mining with 5.0 metre benches, strip ratio
1:3.6 (O:W) and haulage utilising 33 tonne trucks. The mine currently has a capacity of
just over one million tonnes per year of ore.
The ore will be hauled approximately 2km to the current processing facilities, which
currently has a capacity of 1,095ktpa. Previously ore was crushed, agglomerated and
then heap leached using cyanide solution. From solution, the gold and silver was
recovered through a carbon adsorption, electrowinning and smelting circuit to produce
doré.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 0 400 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700
Silver production 000's oz 0 255 2,005 2,005 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215
Gold production 000's oz 0 6 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46
Cash costs $/oz Ag 0.00 11.79 5.56 4.32 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Cash costs $/oz Au 0.00 589 290 226 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
Net sales $000's 0 6,799 49,868 45,581 34,969 34,960 34,966 34,970 34,961 34,954 34,950 34,948 34,946
Cash operating costs $000's 0 6,400 24,300 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900 18,900
EBITDA $000's 0 399 25,568 26,681 16,069 16,060 16,066 16,070 16,061 16,054 16,050 16,048 16,046
EBIT $000's 0 -3,801 22,838 24,031 13,472 14,372 13,744 13,336 14,283 14,899 15,299 15,560 15,729
Net Profit $000's 0 -2,509 15,075 15,863 8,893 9,487 9,072 8,803 9,428 9,835 10,099 10,271 10,383
Capex $000's 12,000 0 0 5,000 0 0 7,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Project cash flow $000's -12,000 1,691 17,805 18,513 11,490 11,175 11,395 11,537 11,206 10,990 10,850 10,759 10,700
The property was previously exploited by Grupo Serrana and between 1974-1991 a
100tpd mill processed around 210,000 tonnes of ore. The deposit is a polymetallic skarn
and mineralisation is associated with the contact between volcanic and metamorphic
rocks. Swedish mining group Boliden carried out exploration in the area in 1997,
defining an attributable resource of 4.5Mt at 69.7 g/t silver a metal content of 6.5% zinc,
12.7% lead and 0.4% copper. Hochschild is currently engaged in verification drilling on
the property with a 10,000 metre program in operation to define an indicated and
measured resource. The company hopes to start an engineering study by early in 2007,
meanwhile exploration at other identified potential targets will continue.
Infrastructure
Having been an operating mine until relatively recently, Moris mine has adequate
infrastructure in place. There is enough power generation capacity at the minesite to be
self sufficient and there is a system in place for re-cycling industrial water supply. Raw
materials are transported to the mine via road from Chihuahua, 260km away and doré is
exported from the minesite to the airport in Chihuahua.
Fiscal Regime
Corporate tax is payable at a prima facie rate of 29% and there are no mineral royalties.
We have assumed straight line depreciation over 10 years.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 0 0 0 650 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Silver production 000's oz 0 255 2,005 2,005 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215
Gold equiv production 000's oz 0 0 0 163 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Zinc production 000's t 0 0 0 35.53 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60 65.60
Lead production 000's t 0 0 0 10.37 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15 19.15
Copper production 000's t 0 0 0 0.83 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
Cash costs $/oz Ag 0 0 0 4.02 4.32 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81
Net sales $000's 0 0 0 80,071 111,368 96,232 96,232 96,232 96,232 96,232 96,232 96,232 96,232
Cash operating costs $000's 0 0 0 16,250 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
EBITDA $000's 0 0 0 63,821 81,368 66,232 66,232 66,232 66,232 66,232 66,232 66,232 66,232
EBIT $000's 0 0 0 43,321 63,368 51,232 53,632 55,552 57,088 58,317 59,300 60,086 60,715
Net Profit $000's 0 0 0 43,321 41,189 33,301 34,861 36,109 37,107 37,906 38,545 39,056 39,465
Capex $000's 0 8,000 88,000 13,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Project cash flow $000's 0 -8,000 -88,000 50,821 56,189 45,301 44,461 43,789 43,251 42,821 42,477 42,202 41,981
ARGENTINA
Hochschild has a presence in Argentina through Compania Minera Santa Cruz S.A., a
joint venture company in which the Group holds a 51% stake. The remaining 49% is
owned by Minera Andes S.A. (MASA) which is controlled by Minera Andes Inc., a TSX
listed company. The joint venture company holds a 40,499 hectare concession area in
Patagonia, which includes the San José Project. The company also holds rights to four
other exploration prospects in the country, including Sierra de las Minas, Ambargasta,
Quevar and Puesto Chacon.
San José
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual throughput 000's t 0 200 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Silver production 000's oz 0 2,675 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690 7,690
Gold production 000's oz 0 24 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
Cash costs $/oz Ag 0.00 9.22 4.93 4.43 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21
Cash costs $/oz Au 0.00 461 257 231 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244
Net sales $000's 0 44,651 120,311 109,721 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170 97,170
Cash operating costs $000's 0 30,000 40,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000
EBITDA $000's 0 14,651 80,311 74,721 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170 62,170
EBIT $000's 0 9,451 70,631 63,709 51,860 52,491 53,059 53,570 54,030 54,444 54,817 55,152 55,454
Net Profit $000's 0 9,451 70,631 63,709 33,709 34,119 34,488 34,820 35,119 35,389 35,631 35,849 36,045
Capex $000's 23,000 58,000 42,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000
Project cash flow $000's -23,000 14,651 80,311 74,721 44,020 43,799 43,600 43,421 43,260 43,115 42,985 42,867 42,762
Infrastructure
The San José joint venture proposes to install a diesel generator at the plant in order to
supply power to the entire operation and the company is permitted to draw local potable
water for industrial use of up to 1,560m3 a day. The nearest town is Perito Moreno,
35km away, however Comodoro Rivadavia (230km) has the nearest port and airport.
Fiscal Regime
The corporate tax rate in Argentina is 35%; we have assumed a net smelter royalty of
2.5% for Argentina.
Under current plans, the majority of tailings waste (85%) is benign and will be disposed
of in a natural basin to the north east of the plant with total capacity of approximately
1.71 million tonnes (the depth is up to 10 metres). The remaining waste (~15%)
containing cyanide will be disposed of in a plastic-lined tailings dam. All tailings will be
stored under water to minimise dust.
MARKET POSITION
We have assessed the company against market peers on varying parameters in order to
support our valuation range - firstly to primary silver mining companies and then to gold
producers. Most of the companies we have benchmarked against are listed in North
America and hold assets in the Americas. However, we have also included Peter
Hambro Mining in our analysis as a London-listed gold producer, with substantial
production growth potential.
60
50
Si l v e r Pr o d ucti o n (M o z )
40
5 Year Target
30
20
KGHM Polska Miedz
Industrias Peñoles
Grupo Mexico
Coeur d'Alene
Pan American
Buenaventura
10
Falconbridge
Barrick Gold
BHP Billiton
Kazakhmys
Hochschild
Polymetal
Newmont
Rio Tinto
Coldeco
Xstrata
Boliden
Volcan
Zinifex
Gldcrp
0
Source: GFMS
We have not included Silver Wheaton in the “Top 20 Producers” (Figure 36) or our peer
group analysis. It is unique in that it is the only mining company with 100% of its
revenue from the sale of silver via purchase contracts. It has agreements with three
separate mines and expects to sell approximately 15Moz of silver in 2006 by purchasing
all silver production from the Goldcorp mines in Mexico, Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden
and a proportion of the silver production from Glencore’s Yauliyacu mine in Peru. We
have also excluded Apex Silver Mines – this company is not currently producing, but is
developing a large silver-lead-zinc mine in Bolivia, with reserves of approximately 470
million ounces of silver. We also note that Coeur d’Alene produced 13.7 million ounces
of silver during 2005, of which approximately 1.0 million ounces were via new purchase
agreements with Perilya and CBH Resources for silver at Broken Hill and Endeavor Zn-
Pb-Ag mines in Australia.
Currently, the company is producing more equivalent ounces of gold than silver, with an
estimated 46% of total revenue being from gold in 2006. As new projects come into
production, the company should become increasingly more driven by silver revenues.
Given the style of the company’s deposits, in our view comparing the company to its
peers on a market capitalisation per/ounce of reserve basis is an inappropriate
benchmark. However, we have made a comparison based on 2006 estimated production
of equivalent ounces of gold, Figure 38. On a market value per annual equivalent ounce
of silver production, our peer group analysis suggests values in the range of US$36-
95/oz.
Financial comparisons
Our financial comparables as at 15 January 2007 indicate that gold and silver companies
in the peer group are currently trading on an average of 15 times and 11 times expected
2007 cash flow respectively.
Our PE comparisons again suggest higher multiples for gold producers than primary
silver producers, although the range is narrower. Silver producers are currently trading
at an average of 22 times 2007 estimated earnings, compared to 25 times earnings for
gold producers, excluding Buenventura. Figure 40 also indicates that although Peter
Hambro Mining is currently trading at much higher PE ratios, on our estimates, when
taking into account growth potential over the next four years of production, their values
implied by PEG ratios look relatively low.
To account for the variance in average cash cost between companies, in addition to
comparing an enterprise value per ounce of production, we have also calculated the
market value as a multiple of operating profit (EV/EBITDA) for each of our peer groups.
10
increase in investment demand. GFMS reported mine supply has increased steadily over
8 this same time period, with an 8% increase in output from 596.5 million ounces in 2002
6
to 641.6 million ounces in 2005. Over recent years this has been accompanied by a hike
4
2
in primary silver production over by-product production from base metals or gold.
0
Supply
Source: Datastream
According to the World Silver Study, total global silver mine production in 2005 was
641.6 million ounces, with Peru leading output at 102.6 million ounces or 17% of world
production; Mexico was in close second, producing 92.3 million ounces. GFMS believes
the supply fundamentals are expected to support higher prices over the near-term and
the strong increase in output seen over the last few years is likely to slow into 2007. The
main cause has been lapses in production from established mines which more than
offset the development of near-term projects. Most notably, year-on year production
losses were from Billiton’s Cannington, Barrick’s Eskay Creek and Polymetal’s Lunnoye
contributing to the downturn in output in 2006. It is also worth noting that the world’s
largest silver mine, Cannington, which contributed 48.8Moz of silver to the global market
in 2005, has reserves of 292 million ounces suggesting a remaining mine life of less than
six years.
Looking further forward from 2007-2008 a series of new projects, particularly in South
America, are expected to add production. Most noteworthy are San Bartolome in
Bolivia (6-8Moz per annum), Dolores in Mexico (5.8 million ounces per annum) and the
large San Cristobal project in Bolivia, owned by Apex Silver and expected to produce
over 22 million ounces of silver per year from the second half of 2007.
500
Poland
6% 450
Australia
Russia 12%
7% China 400
Chile
10%
7%
350
300
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: GFMS
Demand
The World Silver Survey indicates that over the last two years the silver price has
become increasingly influenced by investment demand from institutions. There has been
substantial growth in activity in silver futures and in over-the-counter market
instruments. GFMS suggests positive investor sentiment towards silver has been driven
by higher gold prices, higher base metals prices and, more recently, by rallying ahead of
the launch of the first silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
Aside from investor interest, industrial demand has also experienced strong growth.
Consumption of silver in fabrication (namely industrial applications, photography,
jewellery, coins and medals) shows little price elasticity in most end-uses –the jewellery
and silverware market, for example, remains robust and did not collapse in response to
higher prices at the beginning of 2006. Looking forward, most industrial uses of silver
are largely insensitive to price, but sustained long-term prices of over US$10 could begin
to stimulate substitution. The use of silver in photography has declined substantially
since the growth of digital imaging; since a peak level of 228 million ounces in 1999,
demand has declined by 28% to 63.1 million ounces in 2005.
1000
900
800
700
Mi l l i on ounces
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Industrial Photography Jewelry
Coins and Medals De-hedging Investment
Source: GFMS
GFMS reports that over recent years, demand from fabrication has continued to over
stretch mine supply. A supply deficit has been accumulating over the last 20 years and,
according to World Silver Survey figures, fabrication demand currently exceeds mine
production by over 200 million ounces a year. This gap is typically filled by recycling
and above-ground stocks, which have steadily declined since 1996 at a rate of around
7% per annum. This tightening market seems to have contributed to the increase in
price.
Damien Hackett
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC HOC.L Source: Company data, Canaccord Capital estimates 44 207 050 6641
SWOT Analysis Segmental Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses 2007 Sales Breakdown 2007 EBIT Breakdown
Excellence in all technical Relatively short-life proven
aspects of operation from reserve compared to most other
exploration to tailings mining investments.
management. Moris San Filipe Arcata San Filipe
San Jose San Jose Moris Arcata
High cost of on-going exploration 2% 0% Pall'a 2% 0%
17% 22% 5% 20%
Responsibility of a professional, Pall'a 2%
required for reserve replacement.
experienced and trustworthy 4% Selene Selene
management. Limited free float at 25% may 11% 10%
leave the stock without corporate
Strong organic growth at 25%pa interest and take-over premium.
plus expansion opportunities via Ares
acquisition. Ares
Time required for market to 44%
61%
accept perfect alignment of
Profitability with target cash costs interest between majority and
of $2.5/oz Ag eq and a capital minority shareholders.
cost of $1.0/oz
Net Cash Flow -0.8 1.4 -3.2 515.5 178.3 132.8 190.4 222.0 Payout ratio na na na na na 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Source: Company data, Canaccord Capital estimates Source: Company data, Canaccord Capital estimates
2 1
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The processing plant is similar to that at Arcarta, following a standard crushing, screening,
grinding and flotation route to produce a silver-gold bulk concentrate. Since October 2006
concentrate from Selene has been treated at Ares to produce doré. As such the company
has gained access to more of the value chain from its metal production but is benefiting
from a reduction in working capital by virtue of the reduced metal in inventory. 7 6
The Selene mine and concentrator currently have capacity of 350ktpa, however the 6 5
company plans to expand the plant to 700ktpa by 2007 so as to be able to treat 350ktpa of 5 4
ore from the nearby Pallancata project due for production from 2007. The plant will then
4
be expanded a further 180ktpa to 880ktpa so as to accommodate an expansion of the 3
Selene mining operation from 350ktpa to 530ktpa. We estimate the total cost of the plant 3
2
expansion at US$10 million, half of which will be allocated to the development cost of 2
Pallancata. 1 1
Moris is an epithermal deposit and mineralisation is predominately gold a silver with minor
lead and zinc sulphides hosted by conglomerates and volcanic breccias. Several vein
Silver Gold
systems have been identified, but only the “El Creston” has been mined to date. Vein
thicknesses are up to approximately 10 metres – the average mining width for El Creston
was 13 metres. Manhatten Minerals calculated a life of mine reserve of 4.0 million tonnes
at 1.9g/t gold and 8.75 g/t silver then following closure in 1999, the company stated
resources of 3.1 million tonnes at 1.9g/t and 6.6 g/t silver.
Mining is by open pit methods; the El Creston ore body, previously mined by Manhattan
was extracted through conventional blast, shovel and haulage techniques. The current 100 1000
mine plan involves continuation of open pit mining with 5.0 metre benches, strip ratio 1:3.6
80 800
(O:W) and haulage utilising 33 tonne trucks. The mine currently has a capacity of just over
one million tonnes per year of ore. 60 600
The ore will be hauled approximately 2km to the current processing facilities, 40 400
which currently has a capacity of 1,095ktpa. Previously ore was crushed,
20 200
agglomerated and then heap leached using cyanide solution. From solution, the
gold and silver was recovered through a carbon adsorption, electrowinning and 0 0
smelting circuit to produce doré. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equiv Gold Production (koz) - LHS
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Au - RHS
The property was previously exploited by Grupo Serrana and between 1974-1991 a
100tpd mill processed around 210,000 tonnes of ore. The deposit is a polymetallic skarn
Zinc
and mineralisation is associated with the contact between volcanic and metamorphic
rocks. Swedish mining group Boliden carried out exploration in the area in 1997, defining
an attributable resource of 4.5Mt at 69.7 g/t silver a metal content of 6.5% zinc, 12.7%
lead and 0.4% copper. Hochschild is currently engaged in verification drilling on the
property with a 10,000 metre program in operation to define an indicated and measured
resource. The company hopes to start an engineering study by the beginning of 2007,
meanwhile exploration at other identified potential targets will continue.
20 5.0
18 4.5
16 4.0
14 3.5
12 3.0
10 2.5
8 2.0
6 1.5
4 1.0
2 0.5
0 0.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equiv Silver Production (Moz) - LHS
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Ag - RHS
50 100
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equiv Gold Production (koz) - LHS
Total Cash Cost ($/oz Au - RHS
Advanced Development
Argentina Projects
San José
Chile
Mexico
Pallancata
Peru
Feasibility
Early stage development
Moris
projects
San Felipe
Cerro Blanco Paraíso La Enramada El Pino Ambargasta Quevar Tignamar Julia Prospect
San Andrés Frontera El Pocito Las Tortugas Puesto Chacon Cerro Blanco Paracoya
NOTES
NOTES
NOTES
* Price charts assume event 1 indicates initiation of coverage or the beginning of the measurement period.
Distribution of Ratings: Coverage Universe IB Clients
Global Stock Ratings Rating # % %
(as of 1 January 2007) Buy 292 55.6% 43.2%
Speculative Buy 64 12.2% 65.6%
Hold 147 28.0% 30.6%
Sell 22 4.2% 9.1%
525 100.0%
Canaccord Ratings BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
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