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Friday, 6 January, 2012

5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat
Lightning
Northwest FL (Tue)

Low Threat
Damaging Wind Tornado Fog

Moderate Threat
Wildfire
Statewide (Fri-Sat), Peninsula (Sun-Mon)

High Threat
Rip Currents
Northeast FL & East Central FL (Fri), Statewide (Sat-Sun) Panhandle (Mon-Tue), Southeast FL (Mon-Tue)

Flooding

Freeze

Statewide (Fri), Central & South FL (Sat, Sun)

Forecast Temperatures for Saturday Afternoon and Sunday Morning

High Pressure In the Region Until A Cold Front Passes Through the State Tuesday & Wednesday (click to update and expand)

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts for Friday - Tuesday

Warming Trend Continues Through the WeekendChances for Rain Increase Next Week With the Approach of a Cold FrontWildfire Threat Remains Elevated as Drought Conditions WorsenPatchy to Dense Fog Possible Each Night

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 01.06.12

Friday-Saturday: The warming trend in temperatures will continue through the weekend and high pressure centered over the Florida Peninsula will provide pleasant conditions with mostly sunny skies and light winds for much of the state. Temperatures statewide will warm to normal values for this time of year, ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows temperatures will also warm each night and range between the mid 40s and low 60s. Temperatures will be coolest across Northeast Florida in the low to mid 40s inland and in the upper 40s to low 50s at the coast Friday night but will increase a few degrees on Saturday night into the upper 40s inland to low and mid 50s along the coast. Increasing cloud cover will keep Northwest Florida warmer in the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the mid and upper 50s at the coast both nights. Further south, lows in the low to mid 50s can be expected for most Central and South Florida areas Friday and Saturday night, though metro and coastal Southeast Florida locations near Miami and along the Florida Keys may be slightly warmer in the upper 50s Friday night and in the lower 60s Saturday night. These warmer temperatures along with light winds and mostly clear skies could lead to another night with patchy to dense fog across much of the state Friday night into Saturday morning. Patchy fog is also forecast for much of Central Florida and northern South Florida Saturday night. Anyone outside in the early morning fog should remember to use extreme caution on roadways. In vehicles, slow down, allow for extra space between other vehicles and avoid driving distractions. Pedestrians should carry a flashlight or wear safety light accessories. Cloud cover will begin to increase over North Florida Friday evening through Saturday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region, just north of the Florida border. With the warmer temperatures and increased moisture on southerly winds, a 20% slight chance of showers will be possible after midnight Friday and throughout the day on Saturday across the Florida Panhandle as the disturbance passes by. Sunday-Tuesday: High pressure will move east into the Atlantic as a low pressure system and associated cold front develops near the Texas coastline and moves eastward into our region. This cold frontal passage will bring a good chance of rainfall to the state as it moves through, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. With high pressure still hanging on along the East Coast, rainfall chances Sunday and Monday should remain low for most of the state. There will be a small chance (20-30%) for showers across the Panhandle, but otherwise just expect mostly cloudy skies across Northwest Florida and partly cloudy skies along the Peninsula. Rainfall chances will be highest Tuesday and Wednesday as the cold front moves through the state. Any rainfall on Tuesday should remain confined to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, where a 40-50% chance of rain is forecast along and ahead of the front. No rain is expected along the Peninsula during the day, but some showers could enter Northeast Florida Tuesday night. While severe weather is not expected, a few thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday across Northwest Florida. Peninsula areas that receive rainfall should only get shower activity. The main threats with any thunderstorms that develop will be lightning strikes and gusty winds. No flooding issues are expected as rainfall amounts will only be as high as 1-1.5. The increased cloud cover and moisture ahead of the front will keep temperatures on the mild side through mid-week until cooler air arrives on Wednesday. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s across northern Florida each day, with highs in the upper 70s forecast for Central and South Florida areas along and south of the I-4 corridor. Lows will also remain mild, only
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 01.06.12

dipping to the mid to upper 50s on Sunday and Monday night across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall. Along the Peninsula, lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s are expected for most areas, though lows in the 60s are forecast for coastal South Florida. By Tuesday night, lows will generally be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, though some areas could be slightly cooler across Northeast Florida and warmer in the upper 60s across Southeast Florida. NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County Rip Currents: Lingering ocean swells will produce a moderate risk of rip currents at Florida East Coast beaches north of Martin County Friday. A low rip current risk is forecast statewide Saturday and Sunday, but could be higher along some East Coast beaches from lingering ocean swells. The rip current risk will begin to increase across Southeast Florida and the Florida Panhandle coast next week beginning Monday as east winds increase along the Atlantic Coast and south winds increase ahead of a cold front along the Panhandle coast. Although it is chilly, anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast and learn how to escape a rip current before going to their beach destination. Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches. Drought & Fire Weather: Though humidity values will be above critical levels and winds will be light through the weekend, the continued lack of rainfall and increasing drought values will keep the wildfire threat elevated across much of the state. The highest fire danger exists across the Central and South Florida Peninsula. It is advised that anyone handling flammable materials use caution while outdoors on elevated wildfire danger days. The dry vegetation can fuel a wildfire and cause it to spread rapidly, turning a tiny spark into a devastating wildfire. Your local fire weather forecast can be found here. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, over 90% of the state is now abnormally dry, and almost one-third (27%) of Florida is still considered to be in at least moderate drought conditions. The highest drought values currently exist across North Florida areas along the I-10 corridor, where it is estimated that 6-12 inches of rain is needed to relieve the current long-term drought, but short term drought values are rising rapidly across the Florida Peninsula. Due to continuing La Nina conditions which are forecast to persist through Spring of 2012, a drier and warmer than normal winter is forecast for the Southeastern U.S. With only a 20-30% chance of relieving the drought during the next 3 months, drought conditions are forecast to worsen and expand across the entire state through the remainder of the winter months.
For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 01.06.12

For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great weekend!! Amy Godsey State Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org www.KidsGetAPlan.com

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 01.06.12

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