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Eugene Araullo, PEE Araullo, 36th IIEE Annual National Convention, PICC
Climate Change
(Impact and Design Consideration)
In this Session
Learn and discover What is climate change, the risks and their impacts to our environment, infrastructure and people Other environmental or natural hazards The industry and engineering challenges as a result of climate change Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Page 1 of 32
Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Page 2 of 32
Air/water Pollution
the need to produce more to support growing population and improving lifestyle
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Climate Change
Hydro-Meteorological Hazard
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22 Typhoons; 5ST Emong 120 kph (May6) Kiko 140 kph, (Aug 3) Ondoy - 150 kph (Sep 25) Pepeng 185 kph (Oct 3) Santi 150 kph (Oct 27)
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 039 mph 062 km/h Category 3 111130 mph 178209 km/h 3973 mph 63117 km/h Category 4 131155 mph 210249 km/h 7495 mph 119153 km/h Category 5 156 mph 250 km/h 96110 mph 154177 km/h Unknown
Source: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), Tropical Storm Risk Consortium
14 Typhoons; 1ST Basyang 130 kph (July 13) Caloy, - 130 kph (July 17) Juan - 230 kph (Oct 13)
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 039 mph 062 km/h Category 3 111130 mph 178209 km/h 3973 mph 63117 km/h Category 4 131155 mph 210249 km/h 7495 mph 119153 km/h Category 5 156 mph 250 km/h 96110 mph 154177 km/h Unknown
Source: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), Tropical Storm Risk Consortium
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20 Typhoons; 4ST Chedeng 195 kph (May 24) Juaning - 95 kph (July 27) Mina - 185 kph (Aug 23) Pedring 150 kph (Sep 25) Quiel 175 kph (Sep 29)
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 039 mph 062 km/h Category 3 111130 mph 178209 km/h 3973 mph 63117 km/h Category 4 131155 mph 210249 km/h 7495 mph 119153 km/h Category 5 156 mph 250 km/h 96110 mph 154177 km/h Unknown
Source: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), Tropical Storm Risk Consortium
Areas vulnerable to Climate Change/Global Warming: Rising Sea levels And Flooding
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Sources: Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Celine Vicente, Dr. Fernando Siringan*, Dr. Mahar Lagmay** and Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga, Manila Observatory, Philippines
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Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
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Philippines
20
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Model
08 West Valley Fault
Magnitude
7.2
Characteristics
Severe Damage
Manila Trench
Intensity Distribution
Intensity (MMI)
NAVOTAS VALENZUELA MALABON
CALOOCAN NORTH
9 8
VIII - Very Destructive 7 IX - Devastating
CAL. SOUTH
SAN JUAN PASIG MANILA MANDALUYONG PASAY MAKATI PATEROS TAGUIG PARANAQUE
6 5
(Magnitude 7.2, West Valley Fault)
Source: Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) JICA-PHIVOLCS-MMDA
22
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Liquefaction Potential
MALABON NAVOTAS CAL. SOUTH
CALOOCAN NORTH
VALENZUELA
High
Relatively High
MANILA
Relatively Low
MAKATI PASAY
PATEROS TAGUIG
Low
PARANAQUE
Source: MMEIRS
24
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MANILA
MANILA
PASIG PATEROS
MUNTINLUPA
Wind Speed = 8m/sec Area = 1,710 has. Building: 98,000 Deaths = 19,000
25
26
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HAZARD
RISK POTENTIAL
VULNERABILITY
DISASTER
Climate Change is real and happening now; dont wait! Be the change engineers!
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Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Environmental Issues: Climate change, pollution and other natural hazards. Social & Economic Issues: Fuel cost, food cost, inflation, unemployment, etc. Regulatory Issues: Compliance & Reportorial requirements, etc.
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Gather Data
Information search Surveys / research
Generate Solutions
Benefits/Cost Options
Criteria or specifications
Select a Solution
Constraints or limitations Functional/technical Comml Feasibility Safety/liability Market acceptance Regulatory compliant
Test/Implement
Proto-typing QC/QA Documentation
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Planning
Data gathering & surveys Planning & organizing
Design
Options & alternatives Specifications / drawings Cost / benefits
Construction
Criteria or specifications Constraints or limitations Site development Civil, mechanical, electrical, architectural works, etc. Regulatory compliance
World energy demand increases an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
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Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source!
200
150
100
50
Over 600 GW of power-generation capacity currently under construction worldwide with target operation by 2015
Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
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45 mb/d
40 20 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Assuming oil demand remains flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity (approx 4 times the capacity of Saudi Arabia), would be needed just to offset decline from existing fields.
Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
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The 11 members of GECF account for 2/3 of global gas reserves, while just 2 of them Russia & Iran account for over 40% .
Source: Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
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The top 5 emitters account for 70% of world emissions; China overtook the USA as the largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the fourth largest before 2020
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Fossil Fuel Emission Levels - Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 Carbon Monoxide 40 33 Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 Particulates 7 84 Mercury 0.000 0.007
Source: EIA - Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998
40
35
30
54%
25
20 2005
2010
2015
2025
Reference Scenario
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Summary
Energy and geopolitics are highly interconnected. We need to do our share now The need to decarbonize the worlds energy system to address our energy security and human survival The need to closely collaborate with the other engineering disciplines, city planners, government agencies and concerned private entities to mitigate the risks and hazards Always consider Mother Earth in engineering!
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Our Roadmap
Climate Change Risks and Impacts Other Natural Hazards & Scenarios The Industry & Engineering Challenge Trends, opportunities and recommendations
Nuclear power ?
Renewables
Bio-products
Mass transportation
Road transport
Smart Buildings
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The most well known Solar & wind growing at 35-50% yr 10x / 7 yrs
Ethanol, 39.0 Biomass power, 45.0 Wind Turbines, 100.0 Solar hot water, 105.0 Biomass heating, 235.0
Hydropower Lg & Small, 843.0
0
Source: EIA
200
400
600
800
1000
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Estimates have shown that UK could have a 100% wind supply due to geography
This country just signed a deal for 15% of power 120mw of wind.
This country established RE Act 2008, RPS, Net Metering and adopted a feed-in tariff policy
Source: Worldwatch Institute
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Jap an
Unite d State s
Spain
Italy
Au s tr alia
South Kor e a
Wor ld to tal 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Sourc e: w ikipedia, w w w .gogerty .com
Philippines Share
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Oil
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Primary Energy
Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing
Energy
Liquids
Energy
Power Generation
Energy
Final Energy
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer Choices
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0.23
Drives two cars: A large SUV, 20,000 kms A regular sedan, 15,000 kms
1.42 0.78
Waste
And makes extensive use of alternative transport
Travels regionally by air on vacation: ~5 short-haul trips 0.32 Also produces waste but recycles where possible 0.25 -0.15
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Climate Change
(Impact and Design Consideration)
Page 32 of 32