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27 December, 2011
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MA
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION
ENTRY LEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
Sell limit 3 Sell Stop 3 SHORT 2 SHORT 2 0.8425 1.2130 1705 34.1300
Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await new buy trade setup above 80.00. Looking to sell. Awaiting new buy trade setup. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await new setup. 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 0.8525 1.2230 1705 34.1300
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com
EUR/USD EUR/USD
VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
GBP/USD experiencing a degree of support given the negative structure that we are also seeing in EUR/GBP. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 and then potentially trend-line support near 1.5100.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Range bound trade likely to persist near-term.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
anticipated in this maturity, with scope then for a minor pullback, maintaining downside pressure on USD/CHF. Next year is likely to see a return to focusing on rollover funding issues for the Italian economy. USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.384% and 7.103% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap agreement. Thus, Spanish debt is experiencing a stronger positive
effect, in contrast to the Italian market. These yields were trading at 5.375% and 6.952% respectively on 23 December.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Looking to sell.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
Resistance seen close to 123.00.
GBP/JPY is potentially in the process of forming a bear flag in the daily timeframe. As anticipated a degree of resistance has been seen close to 123.00.
Although short-term weakness may be witnessed there is an expectation that GBP/JPY will see strong support on the approach to 116.84, should this region be revisited.
Longer-term it is anticipated that a much larger recovery will develop with scope for a return to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65. However, signs of basing are still not evident, with the bias still to the downside in the near-term.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
Lower high sought near 0.8425.
EUR/GBP is maintaining the initial support already seen near 0.8300. Scope is seen for a minor continuation of the short-term recovery higher. However, hourly structure remains bearish with a lower high sought versus 0.8613 for a fresh swing to re-test 0.8303.
If a sustained break under 0.8303 can be realised then an extension back to the 0.8068 0.8142 region would become viable. This view is assisted by the recent push under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, which may act to make EUR cross shorts easier to maintain.
Rising yields in the core Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets is a continued concern and one that may destabilise the FX markets going
forward. Within this environment Sterling may well be judged the best of a bad bunch and to a degree be seen as a short-term safe haven, further adding to the potential for downside pressure ahead.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8425, Objs: 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050, Stop: 0.8525
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
VIDEO
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1705, Objs: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1705
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
Weak bounce retesting $30.0000.
Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions has tested key support turned resistance at $30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain
silvers long-term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
14
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