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Investment highlights and update 2 Investment Highlights 3 Strategy 17 Financial Targets 19 3Q 2010 Results & Outlook 33 Price Development 35 Dividend 38 Investments Funding and debt information 41 Divestments 42 Funding and Debt 48 Credit Facilities 49 Rating History General presentation 50 General Info 57 Business Portfolio 66 Operations 72 Deliveries 74 Sourcing 82 Owners 85 Market Position
Investment Highlights
Strong core in high-quality cartonboards
M-real the European market leader in folding boxboard Good growth potential
Turn-around in profitability Significant net debt reduction in recent years Strategic review ongoing
M-real the forerunner in paper merchanting and coated papers industry restructuring in Europe Asset divestments Extensive cost savings and cash flow improvement programmes
2 27.10.2010 Investor presentation 3Q 2010
Strategy
Packaging Is One of the Biggest and Fastest Growing Businesses in the World
One of the most important well-being drivers in the world Product safety issues are crucial Branding and information sharing increasingly important Criticism against bad packaging increasing
Flexible plastics 20 % Board 31 %
Rigid plastics 21 %
Virgin Fibre Board Is the Best Example of Good Packaging Lowest Carbon Footprint
Virgin fibre based lightweight cartonboards the most environmentally sound packaging material Wood fibre based products replace non-renewable materials like plastic and aluminium Virgin fibre board replaces also recycled fibre based packaging materials
SBB WLC
(white lined chipboard)
8 27.10.2010 Investor presentation 3Q 2010
Average FBB
(folding boxboard)
New investments were announced by M-real in 3Q 2010 Investigations ongoing to benefit growth potential in Russia, Eastern Europe or Asia
Alone and together with the best selected local partners
2011 Result Expected to Be Boosted by 60 M vs. 2010 Due to Own Already Implemented Measures
Cumulative Profit impact vs. 2009, m 1 Profit improvement programme 2010 2 Rollover impact of 2009 programme 3 Rollover impact of 2008 programme Total total target 80 60 20 160 2010 40 50 10 100 2011 80 60 20 160
Closures in 2008
Kangas PM2: coated magazine paper Lielahti: BCTMP New Thames: uncoated fine paper (divestment, grade conversion) 100 ktons/a 105 ktons/a 230 ktons/a
Closures in 2009
Hallein paper mill: coated fine paper Gohrsmhle: standard coated fine paper * 310 ktons/a 250 ktons/a
Closures in 2010
Two machines in Reflex: Speciality paper Alizay pulp mill: Chemical pulp 80 ktons/a 310 ktons/a
Total paper capacity Total board capacity Total pulp (incl. BCTMP) capacity
*In Gohrsmhle the speciality paper and uncoated fine paper reel and folio sheet production expanded after the discontinuation of the standard coated fine paper production.
Financial Targets
Financial Targets
ROCE target set at a minimum of 10% on average over the business cycle Net gearing not to exceed 100%
Minimum ROCE 10%*
13,5% 10,2% 7,6% 6,2%
145%
137% 119%
-0,5% -5,6%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1-3Q 10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 3Q 10
1000
39 I
43
54
500
722
676 662
-25 -50
II
III
-75
24
33
2008
II III IV I II III IV I II III
2009
2010
EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items Change in ONWC Net investments Net financial costs Operating cash flow
Sales
In comparison to 2Q 2010 profitability was negatively impacted by scheduled maintenance shut downs at all board mills resulting in lower deliveries Profitability improved due to implemented price increases Demand continues strong. 4Q deliveries negatively impacted by seasonality Price increases implemented to annual contracts as planned, result impact mainly from 1Q 2011 onwards Long delivery times and fully booked capacity in FBB still a challenge for daily business
New capacity increases announced
310
305
3Q 2010
38
34
Sales
Profitability improved due to implemented price increases and better operating rates Result was weakened by higher fibre price Demand expected to continue strong, 4Q deliveries negatively impacted by seasonality Alizays operative performance improved by the permanent closure of the pulp mill Husums energy efficiency investments proceeding as planned
New turbine in place in 1Q 2011, additional annual savings of about 12 m
153
164
3Q 2010
-4
2Q 2010 3Q 2010
Result was weakened by lower operating rates and decreased delivery volumes. Continued high pulp price maintains profitability challenges Result was improved by price increases and implemented cost savings Demand expected to remain stable Positive price development continued in speciality grades Full result impact of agreed productivity improvements from 1Q 2011 onwards. New measures are in the pipeline Share of coated speciality grades still too low in Gohrsmhle
Simpele speciality grades planned to be moved to Gohrsmhle Intensive actions to find new volumes continue
25 27.10.2010 Investor presentation 3Q 2010
Sales
100 75 50 25 0
2Q 2010
M
80
75
3Q 2010
-5
-7
Sales
Profitability improved by increased pulp price Profitability was negatively impacted by lower operating rates due to maintenance shutdowns, lower delivery volumes and higher wood costs Demand expected to continue strong, 4Q deliveries negatively impacted by seasonality Good progress in technical sales actions to allocate more Kaskinen BCTMP volumes to Europe Pulp price is expected to be slightly lower in 4Q than in 3Q
No radical decreases in sight
126 93
3Q 2010
16
16
Pulp price is somewhat lower in 4Q vs. 3Q, no material further decreases in sight
Price increases
Planned continuation of Simpele speciality paper production in Gohrsmhle Partial divestment of the Reflex mill as part of the Paper Park concept
Profitability Outlook
M-reals fourth quarter 2010 operating result, excluding non-recurring items, is expected to be temporarily weaker than in the third quarter due to unfavourable exchange rate development as well as seasonality
1200
1000
800
600
400 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: M-real
33 27.10.2010 Investor presentation 3Q 2010
0,9 0,8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Uncoated fine paper (B-copy, 80 g) Coated fine paper (100 g) EUR/USD Source: Foex, Reuters
Dividend
Dividend Policy
Future dividends will take into account the need to achieve and maintain sufficient financial flexibility The Company remains committed to an attractive and competitive dividend M-real's dividend policy is stable and rewarding to shareholders, and aims at paying a dividend of at least 1/3 of the Company's EPS on average over the business cycle, nonetheless taking into account the Company's gearing target
Dividend Yield
3 2,5 2 5,6% 5,5% 1,5 4,1% 3,3%
1,09 1,13
12 % 8,6% 6,9%
1,85
per share
0,23 0,14
0,50 0,26
0,37
0,38
0,51 0,460,51
0,51 0,30
0,25 -0,43
0,12
0,12 -0,25
0,06
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-0,79
2005
2007
2008
2009 -2 %
-1,09
-4 % -6 % -8 %
-1,58
Dividend yield
Dividend yield calculated from annual average B-share volume weighted price
Dividend yield, %
Investments
2 000 1 500
Disposals
1 000 Million
Acquisitions
500
0 -500
-1 000 -1 500
19
19
20
20
20
20
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Divestiture
Graphic Papers 100 000 B2 shares in PVO New Thames mill Map Merchant Group Folding carton plants Botnia (9%) Botnia (8%) Forestia (95%) Savon Sellu Mets Tissue Papierfabrik Albbruck MD Papier Noviant (19%)
Enterprise Value
300* 750 80 82** 382 60 240 164 163 20 570 235 300 41 3,387
Of the loans about 83 per cent was subject to variable interest rates and 17 per cent to fixed interest rates
MTN Programme Bonds Pension premium loans Loans from financial institutions Finance leases Other interest bearing liabilities
20 %
60 %
98 %
Interest bearing net liabilities 31.12.2003 Interest Bearing Net Liabilities 30.9.2010
Long-term Short-term Total interest bearing liabilities Liquidity and other interest bearing receivables Interest bearing net liabilities 1 123 237 1 360 539 821
158 117 81 18 18
Liquidity
M
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 I/09 II/09 III/09 IV/09 I/10 II/10 III/10
Liquid funds Committed credit facilities
Debt Programs
The following table sets forth the significant debt securities issued and outstanding of M-real as at Sept. 30, 2010:
Average Long-term borrowings USD 350 million Private Note Iss ue E UR 500 mil lion Bond Issue E UR 400 mil lion Bond Issue G lobal Medium-Term Note Program EUR 52 million private placements E UR 131 mil lion bilateral loans E UR 29 mil lion finance leases E UR 245 mil lion pension loans Short-term funding programmes E UR 350 mil lion domestic CP-program E UR 150 mil j. Belgian CP-program EUR 350 EUR 150 EUR 0 EUR 0 Total amount USD 350 EUR 500 EUR 400 EUR 1 500 EUR 52 EUR 131 EUR 29 EUR 245 EUR 131 EUR 29 EUR 226 3,3 % 1,5 % 5,0 % 5.4% (1) 2011 20102013 20102014 20102020 Outstanding USD 224 EUR 500 EUR 0 Interest Rate 5.7% (1) 7.0% (1) Maturity 20122014 2013 2010 (currency in millions)
Average interest rate of all M-real Group interes t bearing liabilities including interest rate derivatives per 30.9.2010 is 5,0 %. (1) The average interest rates take into account outstanding i nterest rate swaps and amortised arrangement fees.
Ratings History
2000 S&P: Short term ratings lowered to A3, Long term ratings placed to credit watch negative Moodys: Long and short term ratings outlook changed from stable to negative 2001 S&P: Long term ratings lowered to BBB-, stable outlook Moodys: Long and short term ratings lowered to Baa3/P3, negative outlook 2003 S&P: Downgrade to BB+, stable outlook Moodys: Downgrade to Ba1, negative outlook 2004 S&P: Outlook changed from stable to negative, ratings affirmed Moodys: Downgrade to Ba2, stable outlook 2008 S&P: Outlook to negative 2009 S&P: Downgrade to CCC+, negative outlook Moodys: Downgrade to Caa1, outlook negative 2010 S&P: Outlook to stable Moodys: Outlook to stable S&P: Upgrade to B-, stable outlook Moodys: Upgrade to B3, outlook to positive 2007 Moodys: Downgrade to B3, negative outlook S&P: Downgrade to B, negative outlook S&P: Downgrade to B-, stable outlook 2005 S&P: Downgrade to BB, stable outlook Moodys: Outlook changed from stable to negative, ratings affirmed 2006 S&P: Downgrade to BB-, negative outlook Moodys: Downgrade to Ba3, negative outlook Moodys: Downgrade to B2, negative outlook S&P: Downgrade to B+, negative outlook
General presentation
M-real in Brief
Annual sales about EUR 2.5 billion. Approximately 4,900 employees. Present in over 70 countries. 13 production units in 5 European countries. Part of Metsliitto Group and listed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki Ltd. Metsliitto Group is one of the largest forest industry groups in the world, owned by a cooperative of 130.000 private Finnish forest owners.
Sales breakdown 2009
Consumer Packaging 40% Paper 40% Market pulp and energy 20%
M-reals Customers
Publishers
Brand owners
Paper merchants
40 %
12 %
40 %
8 Businesses
32 %
3 Businesses
20 %
Pulp Packaging Mechanical Forest Products Chemicals
Simpele Mill
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
PSM
2007
2008 2009
Map
Chemicals Business
Botnia Wood
Corrugated Packaging
MD Papier
Albbruck
Mets Tissue
Savon Sellu
8% in Botnia
9% in Botnia
New Thames
Forestia
Divestments
Carton plants
8000 7000 6000 5000 4044 4000 3014 3000 2000 1000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2313 3319 3236 2432 5898 6923 6564 6044 5460 5624 5241 4440
Business Portfolio
Business Portfolio
Consumer Packaging Office Papers Speciality Papers Market Pulp and Energy
Consumer Packaging
Mainly Folding Boxboard and Linerboard
Fibre-based high value-added packaging solutions for global brand owners in beautycare, healthcare, cigarette, food and consumer electronics industries as well as for graphical end-uses Relatively high earnings stability High segment consolidation Competitive folding boxboard mills with end use specified production
No. 1 Folding Boxboard Producer in Europe
M-real Stora Enso Mayr-Melnhoff Careo IP 0% 5% 10 % 9% 8% 10 % 15 % 20 % Capacity Share (%) 25 % 30 % 35 % 25 % 32 %
Office Papers
Mainly Uncoated Fine Paper
High quality uncoated fine papers for printing and photocopying as well as for forms, envelopes, manuals and communication purposes Diversified customer base, e.g. merchants, retail chains, office equipment manufacturers and corporations Leading European office paper brands like DataCopy and Evolve
No. 5 Uncoated Fine Paper Producer in Europe
Portucel Stora Enso Mondi UPM-Kymmene M-real 0% 5% 11 % 10 % 9% 10 % 15 % 14 % 14 %
Speciality Papers
Leading European speciality paper producer with strong focus on packaging applications Packaging specialities
Flexible packaging Luxury packaging Labels Speciality paper sales
Graphical specialities
Premium fine papers Carbonless papers Digital imaging papers
Packaging specialities 50% Graphical specialities 30% WFU 20%
305
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
1-3Q 2009
1-3Q 2010
1-3Q 2009
1-3Q 2010
Operations
Production Capacity
1000 tons/a
2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 1 800 800 600 400 200 0 Paper Board Pulp and BCTMP 1 200 2 100
Pulp Capacity
(1000 t/a)
PULP MILLS Pulp Mill H usum H allein Joutseno Kas kinen Total BOTNIA * Mill nekoski Kemi Rauma Joutseno Total * M-real share is 30% of the capacity Country Finland Finland Finland Finland Chemical Pulp 500 590 630 650 2370 Total 500 590 630 650 2370 Country Sweden Austria Finland Finland 850 Chemical Pulp 690 160 280 300 580 BCTMP Total 690 160 280 300 1430
Personnel Development
25000 22237 21070 20372 20000 17351 16490 15572 15000 12637 11463 10000 9508 6546 4903 5000 4682 13885 15154 14125
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3Q10
Deliveries
Annual Deliveries*
Cartonboard
18 %
6% 44 %
32 %
86 %
Western- Europe
* Indicative numbers
Eastern- Europe
Americas
Sourcing
Fixed costs
Delivery costs 16 %
Personnel 18 %
Wood 21 %
Variable costs
Outsourced generation 2%
Natural gas 13 %
Woodbased 60 %
50
Finland, south, pine Sweden, south, pine Germany, south, pine Chile, radiata pine USA South, SYP Canada East, SPF
40
30
20
10
0
19 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2099 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0 20 20 8 10 09 q 2
Source: Pyry
19 1 98 0 1 98 1 1 98 2 1 98 3 1 9 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 9 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 1 99 8 2 09 9 2 00 0 2 0 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 0 7 20 2 00 8 10 09 q 2
Source: Pyry
50
Finland, south, birch Sweden, south, birch Portugal, E. globulus
Brazil, E. grandis South Africa, E. grandis USA South, mixed hw
40
30
20
10
19 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2099 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20 2008 10 09 q 2
Source: Pyry
Owners
Non-Finnish nationals; 18 %
Other companies; 5 %
Households; 24 %
Metsliitto; 39 %
Households; 12 %
Metsliitto; 61 %
Market Position
Stora Enso
25% 10%
Mayr-Melnhof Careo
9%
IP
Holmen
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Portucel Stora Enso Mondi UPM M-real International Paper Arctic Paper Sappi Others 0
Source: Pyry Forest Industry Consulting, M-real 87 27.10.2010 Investor presentation 3Q 2010
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Thank you
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