Information Technology (IT) & Computer related Job future trends (Draft -1) Prepare Now for The

Inevitable Reduction of Jobs in IT Industry Wake up & know the Unsustainable path of IT Job Market I write this document in anticipation of future trends that will eventually come to pass in all certainity. The past is not the indication of the future. And history does not always repeat itself. It does not take a PHD to figure these future trends out. Prepare NOW for the Inevitable reduction of jobs in IT & Computer related jobs in near future. Wake up & know that you may be on an Unsustainable path in your current IT related job. My professional back ground is in Mechanical Engineering, CAD and FEA, programming & Computers. I have been fascinated with Computers since the year 2000 and very actively involved in learning and reading about the impact of Information Technology on human lives and future trends. I have expertise in Computer programming. A couple of years ago I was reading a book called the Mind over Technology. Its a very interesting read. It tells us the things that will unfold in future as more and more tasks become automated using machines and the advent of Artificial Intelligence. In the present work I explain how the advances in Technology will lead to reduction in the IT industry related jobs (Software / Hardware). I will also include my own field of work i.e. CAD,FEA, CAM which will make my point clear. In short I beg you to stop counting on those IT jobs you got now to pay your bills or feed your family 5, 10, 15, 20 years down the line. Most of those jobs will be history. The ones that remain will be upgraded to even more advanced levels. Build alternate sources of income on which you can fall back if & when the IT & related industry tanks permanently. I am looking at agriculture as an alternative myself. In this work I present the technology trends & briefly explain it & followed by how it will reduce jobs. Here are the trends detailed one by one which will lead to reduction in IT jobs: Trend 1: Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware. The quantity of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. Refer to the

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
The Number of transistors that can be placed on the chip indicates the roughly the number of logical operatons that can be performed with them. Naturally the more number of transistors indicate more number of computations that can be performed. Moore Law is essentially indicating the trend of exponential growth in transistors. On deeper analysis the same Law with little modifications can be applied to RAM, No of processing

cores,graphics cores, hard disk space, etc. Wrap your mind around the concept of exponential function. Things start becoming capable in the exponential function humans capabilities cannot grow at this rate. Suddenly everything is faster. Faster & automated processes require lesser labor. Hence jobs will be lost. Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, argues that the continuation of Moore's Law will ultimately result in most routine jobs in the economy being automated via technologies such as robotics and specialized artificial intelligence and that this will cause significant unemployment, as well as a drastic decline in consumer demand and confidence, possibly precipitating a major economic crisis. Trend 2 : Data Consolidation via Data Deduplication - Aims at reducing the redundancy of data which occurs when data is stored on USB drives, CD, DVD,etc will be eliminated partially and then completely in near future. The back ups will be more efficient and effective. Using new intelligent technologies this is already possible. For example check out this data deduplication paper which talks about reduction in data. When the data size shrinks significantly lesser data will need to be backed up. By automating this process using scripts or software the manual work is completely eliminated.

Data DeDuplication PDF Download

Trend 3: Storage Space Optimization & Compression Technologies - Intelligent software and new file formats will lead to storage optimizaton i.e. using less space by using smaller file sizes and effective compression technologies. This Optimization is different from Deduplication in that even after the duplication is removed the file may still be in a format which takes up too much storage space. Combining above two trends of Deduplication & Storage Optimization we will require less storage meaning lesser time to backup & thus less number of people for maintaining. Expect one highly skilled professional replacing dozens of mediocre technicians on backup front in next 10 years. This is area is currently being actively researched & there need to better file formats overall. I am waiting for Universal CAD formats which support interoperability in all CAD software. Trend 4: Device Consolidation - The cell phones are becoming the device of choice with all the features included on them. Internet, Email, SMS, Telephone, Voice Commands, TV, MP3 Player, Camera, Camcorder, Scanning, Gyroscope, Conferencing, etc. During this decade i.e. 2010 - 2020 time frame MP3 Players, Cameras, Camcorders,webcams etc will get completely integrated into cell phones. After 2020 isolated hardware vendors will not have a separate segment to sell to the customer. People want all their tech crap at one place & available on demand & on the move. Consider all the individual hardware manufacturers going out of business or consolidating because of this. Trend 5 : Cloud Computing - The cloud adoption will be more rampant owing to cost of mantaining and ease of use and 99.99% plus uptime promised by cloud vendor. Also the meter usage model wll become very famous. Maintaining Email servers onsite will be thing of the

past for companies. Google already offers their services as subscription service. Professionals who earn their living maintaining mail servers at individual business locations will be replaced. Trend 6 : Market Flooded with Computing Devices - Use and throw computing devices are becoming ubiquitous. Green disposable devices will become available soon which will be 100% recyclable. People would not bother to get a laptop or cell phone worth 100 dollars fixed if they can buy another one for cheap. Soon the hardware repair shops will go out of business because people dont want to get their broken computers fixed. It will not be cost effective to repair when you can buy a brand new one cheaper. I still see a market for recovery of data from malfunctioning or corrupted drives in future. Trend 7 : Disaster Recovery Segment - This has become an automated process already for much of the enterprise. The software already does this without much intervention using automated scripts and software. When we start working on the cloud servers the data recovery will be cloud vendors job. See an increasing trend of employee reduction at companies employed for such tasks as data recovery & disaster management. Trend 8 : Anti-Virus Segment - The latest operating systems are much more resilient to virus, malware and trojan attacks. Spam, Malware, Spyware, Trojans will be increasingly screened using pre-programmed Artificial Intelligence technology & the process will be completely automated. The human intervention will be minimized. Expect work force reduction due to this. Trend 9 : Sales & Marketing Crew Shrinkage - Cloud Computing coupled with open source software can lead to a hard sell for proprietary software vendors like Microsoft. To compete effectively Microsoft,etc may go for a Marketing and Sales reduction to encourage direct downlaod of the OS backed by free tutorials or online university resources to educate users. Retailers & Sales people will be cut out of the loop so the software can be sold directly. By 2020 however I expect Microsoft to ship a terminal device or thin client directly to you with Basic OS thin client loaded. You may have no other option than to work directly on Microsoft Cloud. At that point Microsoft can sell directly from Redmond, Washington,USA without any middle men. This strategy from Microsoft & other vendors makes perfect sense to me. Trend 10 : Phones as Computing Devices - Phones are already used for many computing purposes. Smart phones will replace most of the laptops on the move. Smart phones with docking station will be all we will need for our daily computing. The smart phone may be turned into thin clients running a connection to the cloud server. This will end our need to maintain desktops & laptops at home. Trend 11 : Desktop Software Installation- Desktop based software will become less and less common. IT consumers will prefer already available apps on their mobile phones Vs desktop bound software. Examples: Mint.com instead of Quicken & Gmail instead of Outlook server. These web apps are clearly easier to use & dont present the user with installation hassles. This trend will be accelerating as more apps become available and users learn the ease with which they can get work done without installing the desktop software.Rise of App programming will kick desktop programs to the curb side. Packaging software & selling them on CD, DVD,USB or .exe files etc to be installed on desktops or laptops will be obsolete. Apps can pushed out instantaneously & made available to users with bug fixes etc. Expect a drop in jobs related to software packaging, CD etc sales & marketing. Trend 12 : Drop in New Hardware Purchased - I am surprised this is not happening already. Most of the work we do by 2020 will be in the cloud or remote servers. The computers or smart

phones we have currently will be reduced to nothing more than thin clients with high speed internet connection. Expect heavy job losses in PC & smart phone shipment, sales & marketing business.A thin client is just that - A Thin client. You dont need fancy stuff for a thin client. You may use a thin client machine indefinitelt till it breaks. There will be increase in the server sales. Trend 13 : Hi Speed Internet - As the high speed internet becomes common the data will flow faster between locations, local & global. The estimated average speeds may be up in the 1 Gbps range. This will facilitate migration to cloud & app based infrastructure completely. The faster flow of data will reduce bottlenecks in various IT & other projects. When data moves fast the projects get done faster & we need fewer people. End result is job loss. Trend 14 : Speed of Light -Fiber optic technology will become available for interconnects. This will boost data transfer speeds between the computer components internally,on the intranet & internet. Overall data will flow at exponential rates faster than today by 2020. Trend 15 : Software Program Consolidation - The total number of companies writing programmes will be drastically reduced. Users are informed & smart now and they tend to stick to their vendors as long as they give good bug free software. Over years the internet reviews have helped users filter the unworthy software out. This process will continue & expect to see fewer & fewer software program companies in future with increasing market share. Trend 16 : Evolution of Open Source Programs - I use Ubuntu Linux as my primary OS.Mozilla firefox as browser, Libre office for document editing, GIMP for photo editing. All these software are open source & they are absolutely free. Open source programs may eventually bankrupt a lot of proprietary software companies by 2020 which make inferior programs. Those companies would shed jobs. Trend 17 : Code Consolidation - The code gets written and re-written & the packaged software has grown in size. A day of reckoning will come when customers will say enough is enough. My friend recently said Windows 7 Operating System occupies 7 GB of disk space. This is insane considering the fact that Windows 98 in year 2000 ran happily on a 1 GB Hard disk with all my programs & games installed & with 200 MB to spare. The code consolidation will begin sooner or later by all software vendors & this will result in Code getting trimmed or pared down to reduce the dependencies & reduce file size & improve performance & remove legacy data. When legacy code need not be maintained anymore the old programmers may be asked to leave the company as their services would no longer be required. Trend 18 : Code Reuse - Modular approach - Older programming techniques were not completely based on a modular approach. By rethinking the modular approach companies can reduce the number lines of program that need to be written. And when something is written anew it will be used for a long time as a basic building block. Think about Math functions in C Programming Language. Modular approach automates some steps in a complex program because the necessary building blocks are already available as modules. Reducing number of lines of codes & quality checks translates to lesser number of employees naturally.

Trend 19 : Code Standardization - By adhering to the industry standards the elimination of non standard code practices is possible, which will improve consistency & reduce the rework in programming. Expect the marked move towars standardization in coding. This will remove jobs for non standard programmers who are unable to comply. Trend 20 : Code Optimization - This involves how the various parts of a software program come together to give a holistic feel to the end user i.e. a tight bound program with maximum functionality & user friendliness but minimum lines of code. Programmers who cannot meet these requirements will increasing face prospect of job loss. Trend 21 : Reduction in New Code required - I believe we are reaching a point in computer history where we may have reached a saturation point in new code required for some applications. In personal Banking for instance the formulas applied for basic functions may not be much different from a century ago. New code & functionality may no longer be required to be added as the software has reached a saturation point & that no more programmers will be required except for maintaining. Trend 22 : Elimination of Redundant Coding within Same industry - When Companies in same industry join hands to build common programs & reduce cost. For example : ICICI , Chase & HSBC banks may want to adopt same code for banking practices. Now let us assume all the banks in the world want to use the same base software packages, Security & practices. This will lead to significant reduction on the part of the banks in terms of programming expenses. Every bank can then write custom programs on top of this base software set. Applying same logic for other industries we can see that companies can save significant amount of sums by jointly developing base software. Trend 22 : Server Consolidation - As servers get more powerful we will need fewer machines to serve the same number of customers in a given company. With reduced maintainence the maintenance jobs will be lost. Trend 23 : Virtualization Trend 24 : Maintenance Crew Consolidation India the Land of Virtual Slaves Service Peak - XP case study. RAM Speed Processor Speed - Doubles 18 months to 2 years, which means more solutions can be had in lesser n lesser time. Data Storage Access Speeds - As we transition from Spinning Platter drives to the SSD and flash based drives we will have backups at higher speeds.

Human like recognition capabilities: Optical character recognition (OCR) reduces file size when a predominently text document is scanned. Inter Connect Speeds - The rate at which data can be moved between the various parts inside the computer s increasing. Expect fiber optics to increase this value exponentially by 2020. Higher speed = faster work. Reduction in Pay Scales - Due to ever increasing population and Number of unemployed Graduates in IT allied fields the supply of computer literate persons will be numerous. Following Supply and Demand economics the employee salary has to go down rapidly. Look at all these colleges & Universities in India, USA & much of the world churning out computer graduates. I dont personally see a point in increasing the quantity of graduates. Only top 0.5% - 5% of all graduates with computer degrees will be employed per my prediction by 2020. Reduction in Specialization Consolidation of Programming Languages - C, C++ Fortran Python are all programming languages. Java was one language works for all paradigm. Java Script does the same for web pages. Developers of software are growing away from proprietary software & want fewer programming languages. Accelerating rate of returns - Once the ground frame work is in place the accelerating rate of returns will start taking effect. This is already evident. It s very simlar to the principle of compounding. Except that the compounding rate may be fluctuatng in IT sector. Intel has the Moores Law as an example. The adoption of Cell phones & call rates in India is another example. Reduction of power consumed by chips. Number of Cores in a CPU. Number of Cores in a GPU. Impact on Manufacturing Industry CAD / CAM / FEA jobs in Jeopardy - I have been working in CAD, CAM and FEA areas i.e. Computer related automation of design and Simulation. In the past decades the process was fragmented. The design was performed in a CAD environment and then the model was imported to the FEA software and then had to be remeshed. And sent out to another software called Solver to perform calculation. Same software package now offers the Styling, 3D CAD Design, FEA and Prototyping tools. Hence larger bottle necks in manufacturing automation have been removed due to advances in Software and the packaging of the Software. Also there has been a major consolidaton of Software vendors in this area. For Instance : Dassault Systems has acquired many Styling , FEA products company ABAQUS and also factory automation products, Solid works CAD,etc. Always On Computers - Always on computers will be a norm in the next decade in most of third world countries. As the cost of power needed to run the newer computers 24/7 goes down consumers would opt to keep them always on and connected as a matter of convenience. Check out SETI project which will allow you to use your computer processing power etc during idle times for scientific research purposes. Digital Divide - The people with Little and no education in computers will be taken out of job market when most of the repetitive tasks will be performed by computers and need atleast some technical knowledge. Due to initial resentment these people will tend to blame

technology insted of enjoying the benefits and convenience. This has already happened in the past with many jobs which include Telephone Operators, Directory Assistantance, Bank Teller, etc. Artificial Intelligence - Tries to replicate the human intelligence based on a pre-defined conditions (Source : Wikipedia). Check out this link. I highly recommend listening to the audio to be found on the link below. The Super Computer built by the IBM team has won a game show defeating a human opponent. http://www.npr.org/2011/02/20/133916058/the-dark-side-of-watson?ft=1&f=1001 Re-inventing the Wheel Automation of Manufacturing 24/7 Work Environment Reduced Life Span of IT workers Reduced Quality of Life/ Overworked Employees - Obesity, Hyper tension heart diseases, Constant burn out, Perceived Competition, Dealing with the Psychological Pain of Obsolescence IT in Indian Banks - A Brief Observation Study Job Losers are Winners in the End - What happens when all the above changes come to pass.

About me

Hello I'm Surya Prakash Kanakapally. I graduated from Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, USA in December 2005 with a Master of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering. I currently work as a Mechanical Engineer for a living. My areas of professional work include (but are not limited to) Mechanical Engineering, CAD, FEA, Computers, Linux, Programming. As of this writing on 15 January 2012, I am 30, single and very much available (for marriage). Currently I am single pointedly looking for a woman who appreciates (and / or) shares similar interests in life and wants to become my wedded wife for life.

I love writing & I love to read about diverse fields of Human Endeavor. In personal life I am very passionate about Personal development, Finance, Psychology, Meta Physical sciences like Yoga, Meditation, Natual Healing techniques, Herbal Medicine, Astrology. I spend lot of my time working on myself. I would like to share my observations with the world in my writings. These observations are related to my work & other arts or sciences I am practicing or involved with.

PS : This document is Draft-1 & Work in Progress.