Aus Open 2012 Monday (second half of draw) thoughts. By Phil Zammit - @astutebetting on twitter or www.astutebetting.

com Odds below are what I have priced each player to win, and I create these odds before I look at any bookies prices. There is no market vig, thus if I think a match is 50/50 then both players are priced at $2. My betting philosophy is essentially to look for value, which tends to be on the outsider more often than not. I am more than happy to lose more bets than I win if I still manage to overall make a profit. Note that my notes below are raw, they have been quickly written, there has been no editing or proofreading, and will contain typos etc! Bet Responsibly! Cheers Phil

M. Fish $1.33 G. Muller $4 Fish hasnt been too flash end of last year and has been knocked out early in AusOpen other years. Surface suits Mullers serve. Muller can win a set or two, will be looking at the set betting. Also potential to back Muller and then lock in profit if odds gap closes in a tight match.

A. Falla $1.53 F. Fognini $2.85 Falla should win but is susceptible to losing more than he should when he is the fav. Fognini was crap in both Chennai and Sydney though. Probably a match I will stay out of.

A. Montanes $1.25 P. Riba $5 Montantes hasnt played much of late and will be rapt to play Riba, a clay court specialist. One of the few matches where the short player (Montanes) is the value, mainly because Riba has little idea how to play other surfaces.

P. Kohlschreiber $1.66 J. Monaco $2.50 Set betting way to go here, will be at least 4 sets, maybe 5. Monaco hasnt played enough tennis of late, but Kohl will have a bad patch somewhere in the match and drop a set or two.

R. Do Voest $3 Y.LU $1.50 De Voest was a lucky loser to get in and I have based my prices here around Do Voest losing his qualifying match, and Lu has defeated Do Voest the last 4 times. Lu should win, odds on offer seem about right though, but not enough for me to jump at them.

F. Serra $1.81 S. Darcis $2.21 Serra has won 6 of 7 matches this year but against no one of note. Darcis pulled out of his last match due to injury. Gave Serra slight fav due to winning form being good form. But if Darcis was full fit he would be clear fav. Basically you are punting on Darcis injury here.

J. Ward $2 B. Kavcic $2 I dont much about Ward but he won all 3 qualifying matches here. If Kavic was playing anyone not a qualifier I would have tipped him to lose. Probably stay out of this one.

A. Mannarino $10 J.M. Del Potro $1.11 Del Potro easy. Del Potro in 3 sets is you must have a bet.

A. Dolgopolov $1.05 G. Jones $20 Dolg in a heart beat. Jones only positive is that he has home town support.

T. Kamke $2 V. Hanescu $2 Both been ordinary of late. Should go to 4 or 5 sets, so maybe set betting way to go here.

K. De Schepper $10 S. Querrey $1.11 Querrey is not in his best form but is the experienced guy here. DeS got in via a French wildcard and has been in poor form end of last year. For those who like to back very short odds Q is your man.

B. Tomic $2.22 F. Verdasco $1.81 Backing Verdasco, should be slight fav despite Tomics recent good form and hype. Verdasco odds are great value!

J. Melzer $2 I. Karlovic $2 Melzers form ordinary. Karlovics serve dangerous. Melzers 5-0 H2H advantage over K irrelevant as is 4 years old. Backing Kalovic on a value basis.

C. Berlocq $2.50 J. Huta Galung $1.66 HG is a qualifier but has a far better hard court record over Berlocq who is a clay courter. HG a value bet here.

E. Prodon $3 A. Beck $1.50 Beck by all rights should win, althouth Prodon knocked Beck over twice on clay last year. Will have a bit of a go on Prodon at value odds.

A. Kudryavtsev $100 R. Federer $1.01 Federer wont drop a set, but really not much point in betting in this match.

T. Berdych $1.03 A. Ramos $33 Berydch in 3 sets here. Ramos is a clay court specialist only.

O. Rochus $1.50 B. Phau $3 Rochus found some form in Auckland. Phau a better player than his ranking suggests. Will be competitive start before Rochus takes over.

S. Stakhovsky $1.66 I. Marchenko $2.50 I will stay out of this match.

F. Nielsen $4 K. Anderson $1.33 Beware, Anderson has an injury cloud, otherwise would be a lock to win this match. If Ando is losing he may retire though.

S. Wawrinka $1.50 B. Paire $3 Upset potential, backing Paire at what I believe are value odds at some bookies.

M. Baghdatis $1.33 B. Becker $4 Bagdatis to win comfortably in 3 sets. Set betting may be way to go here.

J. Chardy $3.33 G. Dimitrov $1.42 If Dimitrov wins it will be in 3 sets. If the match goes to a 5th set I reckon Chardy will cause an upset.

L. Kubot $3.33 N. Almagro $1.42 Almagro would have been vulnerable if he was playing someone else. Hard court is Kubots worse surface, more a case here of backing Kubot to lose.

J. Isner $1.02 B. Mitchell $50 Hoping patriotic betting on Aussie Mitchell may see some value for Isner. Isner in straight sets.

J. Nieminen $2 D. Nalbandian $2 Cant split them. Bookies have Nalbandian fav so will back Nieminen, plus hoping will be able to trade myself to lock in a profit during match.

F. Cipolla $4 N. Davydenko $1.33 A policy of mine is to never bet on a Davydenko match. He should win though.

L. Mayer $10 F. Lopez $1.11 Note this is Leonardo Mayer, not Florian! Leonardo can only play on clay. Will be tough to find value here. Lopez in 3 sets.

I. Ljubicic $2 L. Lacko $2 Ljubicic the better player, but Lacko capable on his day. Note I may be slightly biased here as I have made a bit of money on Lacko previously...

P. Gojowczyk $2 D. Young $2 Young is the better player. Never seen Gojo play, but has won 3 qualifying matches her. By all rights Young should be fav, but may have a play on Gojo based purely on winning form is good form compared to youn who has only placed once for a loss this year.

T. Haas $1.17 D. Kudla $6.66 Haas to win comfortably. I think the value is there with some bookies paying him around $1.40ish.

A. Kuznetsov $100 R. Nadal $1.01 Nadal easy, but is it even worth bothering betting here?