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2010 10 18

9
%

12

10

12

%
%()
NBS

15-16

15


2010 10 18

Misleading
metaphorsGlobal Economic Weekly2010 10 15

1:
()

2
()

( 2)

Census Bureau


2010 10 11

()
()
1

( 3)

3
(1999 = 100)

4
( GDP % )


( 4)
2007 12
7% 8%
30%

Cochrane, John H, Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic, National Bureau of
Economic Research, 2010 6


2010 10 18

Taking on the
QE2 criticsUS Economic Weekly2010 10 15

:
1
()

GDP
2.5% 0.5

GDP

9
1.7%

0.8%
( 1)

1
7 30 10 13

2.91
2.42
10 (%)
-49
1106.6
1178.1
6.5%
500
81.5
77.1
-5.5%

79.95 83.01 3.06

1,181 1,373
192
* 201 104 ** 97
: * **9


2010 10 11

2
()


(1) (2)
(3)
(4) (5)

( 1)
7 6% 6500

2
(/)

GDP
2010

2011

UNR
(eop)

3.3

9.4

1.0

0.9

2.4
2.3

9.6
9.7

1.6
1.0

1.4
0.9

3.9

8.5

1.4

1.1

2.7
2.1

9.3
10.0

1.6
1.0

1.2
0.7

11
8 %

( 2)

6 23
10 5

3
* 10
()

1.

2.

Bullard

20 90

3.

( 3)


2010 10 18

4
( GDP )

20 90
4 2004
2007
4 1999 GDP
2006 GDP

4
GDP


2010 10 11

Rebounded
property sector in September and its impactChina Macro Watch2010 10 15

9
2010 10 15 8:30

:
:

19
%

% %
0.5
9.1
0.0
9.3

%
16.6
-10.1

%
35.2
-8.6

%
44.3
55.2

%
35.0
34.1

9 29

%
%()
NBS

(1)
(2)
7.5 25
(3)
(4)

(5)

70 9
0.5% 9.1%, 8 8
9.3%

16.6% 8 10.1%
35.2% 8 8.6%
52.4% 55.4%
2009 9
16.9% 5.3%

9 35.0% 8 34.1%

44.3% 8 55.2%


2010 10 18

China: Chilling
thoughts ahead of the 12th Five-year PlanAsia Macro Weekly2010 10 15

10 15-18 12
(2011-15 )

GDP

2011

2013
2013 2013

(
Forecasting China within a business cycle framework, 2009
7 6 )

(1)
(2)
(3) (4)
(5) (6)

(
7.5% 7.0%)


2010 10 11

30

2010

2010

10

2010 10 2011 2
2011 3

2011 3 2011 3

National economic and social


development design and planning

GDP GDP
7.5% ( 8.0%)
7.0%
GDP 20%


2010 10 18

The ECB in the


aftermath of the financial crisis
Global Economic Weekly (p.11-12)2010 10 15

: 8
1.8%

: Weber

: 10

:
9
() 1.8% 8 1.6%
1.0%

2010 1.5%2011 1.7%

8 (+1.0%)

3 2

:
Weber

10 7
1.00%
9 ""

2011 10 Axel
Weber

10


2010 10 11

Weber
2011
12 Weber

10 4
10
4
2 3 10 9
9 55.1
54 7 61.2 9
56 559
58.8 57.5
ZEW IFO

11


2010 10 18

Lower world
growth, lower LatAm ratesGlobal Economic Weekly (p.29-31)2010 10 15

25

10

IPCA-15 0.52%
0.48%

25
25

25
10.4%
2.0% 7 0.4%8
8.1

7 50
75 8
25 10.75%
4
8.75% 2009 7 4.0%
4 50 3%

6 50 9
50 20
25 2.75%
0.5% 5
25 8 50
12


2010 10 11

9 50
3.0%

MLFXLATS2009 16.3% 5%

2011
2011
2011 4.6% 3.9%
5.3% 2011
3.7%
2011
(Strong GDP in 2010, less so in 2011)

2011

2009 2008 /2009

//
2009 20

13


2010 10 18

20

21

20X

21

0.2% 1.4%

1981 2009
10

10
IPCA-15
0.52% 10
2010

0.48%

10.75%

9
11.52 INEGI
89 1.6%5.35%

14


2010 10 18

(Volatility Risk Rating)(Investment Rating)(Income Rating)


A B C (i)(ii)()
1 ( 10%)2 (
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( 12 )

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7 /8 / 9

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2010 10 18

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16

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