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9
%
12
10
12
%
%()
NBS
15-16
15
2010 10 18
Misleading
metaphorsGlobal Economic Weekly2010 10 15
1:
()
2
()
( 2)
Census Bureau
2010 10 11
()
()
1
( 3)
3
(1999 = 100)
4
( GDP % )
( 4)
2007 12
7% 8%
30%
Cochrane, John H, Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic, National Bureau of
Economic Research, 2010 6
2010 10 18
Taking on the
QE2 criticsUS Economic Weekly2010 10 15
:
1
()
GDP
2.5% 0.5
GDP
9
1.7%
0.8%
( 1)
1
7 30 10 13
2.91
2.42
10 (%)
-49
1106.6
1178.1
6.5%
500
81.5
77.1
-5.5%
1,181 1,373
192
* 201 104 ** 97
: * **9
2010 10 11
2
()
(1) (2)
(3)
(4) (5)
( 1)
7 6% 6500
2
(/)
GDP
2010
2011
UNR
(eop)
3.3
9.4
1.0
0.9
2.4
2.3
9.6
9.7
1.6
1.0
1.4
0.9
3.9
8.5
1.4
1.1
2.7
2.1
9.3
10.0
1.6
1.0
1.2
0.7
11
8 %
( 2)
6 23
10 5
3
* 10
()
1.
2.
Bullard
20 90
3.
( 3)
2010 10 18
4
( GDP )
20 90
4 2004
2007
4 1999 GDP
2006 GDP
4
GDP
2010 10 11
Rebounded
property sector in September and its impactChina Macro Watch2010 10 15
9
2010 10 15 8:30
:
:
19
%
% %
0.5
9.1
0.0
9.3
%
16.6
-10.1
%
35.2
-8.6
%
44.3
55.2
%
35.0
34.1
9 29
%
%()
NBS
(1)
(2)
7.5 25
(3)
(4)
(5)
70 9
0.5% 9.1%, 8 8
9.3%
16.6% 8 10.1%
35.2% 8 8.6%
52.4% 55.4%
2009 9
16.9% 5.3%
9 35.0% 8 34.1%
44.3% 8 55.2%
2010 10 18
China: Chilling
thoughts ahead of the 12th Five-year PlanAsia Macro Weekly2010 10 15
10 15-18 12
(2011-15 )
GDP
2011
2013
2013 2013
(
Forecasting China within a business cycle framework, 2009
7 6 )
(1)
(2)
(3) (4)
(5) (6)
(
7.5% 7.0%)
2010 10 11
30
2010
2010
10
2010 10 2011 2
2011 3
2011 3 2011 3
GDP GDP
7.5% ( 8.0%)
7.0%
GDP 20%
2010 10 18
: 8
1.8%
: Weber
: 10
:
9
() 1.8% 8 1.6%
1.0%
8 (+1.0%)
3 2
:
Weber
10 7
1.00%
9 ""
2011 10 Axel
Weber
10
2010 10 11
Weber
2011
12 Weber
10 4
10
4
2 3 10 9
9 55.1
54 7 61.2 9
56 559
58.8 57.5
ZEW IFO
11
2010 10 18
Lower world
growth, lower LatAm ratesGlobal Economic Weekly (p.29-31)2010 10 15
25
10
IPCA-15 0.52%
0.48%
25
25
25
10.4%
2.0% 7 0.4%8
8.1
7 50
75 8
25 10.75%
4
8.75% 2009 7 4.0%
4 50 3%
6 50 9
50 20
25 2.75%
0.5% 5
25 8 50
12
2010 10 11
9 50
3.0%
MLFXLATS2009 16.3% 5%
2011
2011
2011 4.6% 3.9%
5.3% 2011
3.7%
2011
(Strong GDP in 2010, less so in 2011)
2011
//
2009 20
13
2010 10 18
20
21
20X
21
0.2% 1.4%
1981 2009
10
10
IPCA-15
0.52% 10
2010
0.48%
10.75%
9
11.52 INEGI
89 1.6%5.35%
14
2010 10 18
( 12 )
10%
0%
70%
30%
20%
7 /8 / 9
BAS
15
2010 10 18
ADR
BASL
MLPF&S
2009 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated MLPF&SiQmethodiQmethod 2.0iQprofileiQtoolkitiQworks Merrill
Lynch & Co., Inc.iQanalytics, iQcustom, iQdatabase Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
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BASBAIMLPF&S
(852) 2161-7275sunny.wong@baml.com
()
(Denise Tong)
16
(852) 2536-3696denise.tong@baml.com