United States Africa Command Public Affairs Office 19 January 2012

USAFRICOM - related news stories

Please find attached news clips related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa for January 19, 2012, along with upcoming events of interest and UN News Service briefs. Of interest in todays clips: -Malian army helicopters foil Tuareg rebel advance -Algeria says kidnapped governor freed on Libyan soil -Minister - Boko Haram Confined to Northeast -Half a Million Sudanese Will Face Famine by March, U.S. Special Envoy Says -Slow response to East Africa hunger 'cost lives' This message is best viewed in HTML format.

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Please send questions or comments to: publicaffairs@usafricom.mil 421-2687 (+49-711-729-2687) -------------------------------------------Top News related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa

Malian army helicopters foil Tuareg rebel advance (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120118-malian-army-helicopters-foils-tuareg-rebeladvance-menaka?quicktabs_1=1 18 January 2012 By AFP A new Tuareg rebel group launched a second day of attacks on two more towns in Mali's arid north, a rebel spokesman said Wednesday, ending the tenuous peace that has existed between Tuareg groups and the government for the last two years. Algeria says kidnapped governor freed on Libyan soil (Reuters) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/uk-algeria-libya-kidnapidUKTRE80G0PG20120117 18 January 2012 By Christian Lowe and Lamine Chikhi U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

ALGIERS (Reuters) - A kidnapped Algerian regional governor has been freed after his captors were intercepted inside Libya, officials said on Tuesday, an incident that will raise new concerns about instability spilling over from Libya to its neighbours. Minister - Boko Haram Confined to Northeast (All Africa) http://allafrica.com/stories/201201180955.html 18 January 2012 The Minister of Defence Dr. Bello Halliru Mohammed yesterday said the military joint task force have succeeded in confining the members of the Boko Haram sect to the north eastern part of Nigeria and will eventually scatter them. Half a Million Sudanese Will Face Famine by March, U.S. Special Envoy Says (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/half-a-million-sudanese-will-face-famineby-march-u-s-special-envoy-says.html 18 January 2012 By Franz Wild (in Pretoria) and Jared Ferrie (in Juba) About half a million people in Sudan's border states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile may face emergency conditions bordering on famine by March, said the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, Princeton Lyman. Slow response to East Africa hunger 'cost lives' (Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/aid-agencies-donors-slow-response-to-eastafrican-hunger-crisis-cost-thousands-of-lives/2012/01/18/gIQArUnW7P_story.html 18 January 2012 By Katherine Houreld Associated Press NAIROBI, Kenya Thousands of people died needlessly and millions of dollars were wasted because the international community did not respond fast enough to early signs of famine in East Africa, aid agencies said Wednesday, while warning of a new hunger crisis in West Africa. Central African leaders vow to promote regional integration, security (Xinhua) http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-01/17/c_131365359.htm 18 January 2012 N'DJAMENA, (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) -- Integration and sub-regional security were among the major issues discussed during the 15th summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC), which ended on Monday in N'Djamena, the Chadian capital. US military report predicts Nigeria's collapse by 2030 (Daily Trust) http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=152558: nigeria-may-collapse-in-2030-say-us-military-experts&catid=1:news&Itemid=2 18 January 2012 By Nuruddeen M. Abdallah U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Nigeria would be engaged in multipartite civil war like it happened in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991 before its final disintegration in 2030, a report by the United States military experts released by the Centre for Strategy and Technology, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama has said. Factbox: Foreigners attacked in Africa (MSNBC) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46042616/ns/travel/ 18 January 2012 Report details attacks on foreigners and those held by kidnappers around Africa. News Headline: Insight: The drone war (Defence web) http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22639:t he-drone-war&catid=49:National%20Security&Itemid=115 18 January 2012 By David Rohde Reuters They kill without warning, are comparatively cheap, risk no American lives, and produce triumphant headlines. Over the last three years, drone strikes have quietly become the Obama administration's weapon of choice against terrorists. News Headline: State Partnership Program Emphasizes Building Relationships (Defense.gov) http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=66807 18 January 2012 By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. American Forces Press Service WASHINGTON, Jan. 17, 2012 A small, but innovative, program demonstrates the U.S. military's very agile and flexible capabilities in working with partners, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said recently. U.S. braces for 'new' terror threats (WTOP) http://wtop.com/?nid=215&sid=2707441 16 January 2012 By J.J. Green WASHINGTON - Evolving terror threats will remain an immense challenge well into the 21st century, according to U.S. government officials. ### UN News Service Africa Briefs http://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA (Full Articles on UN Website) Cte dIvoire needs continued humanitarian support, stresses UN relief official 18 January Cte dIvoire remains in great need of humanitarian assistance nine months U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

after the end of the bloody post-election violence that displaced tens of thousands of people, a senior United Nations relief official said today, urging donors to continue their generosity to the West African country throughout this year ### Upcoming Events of Interest: JANUARY 19, 2011 WHEN: 10:00 11:30 a.m. WHAT: Brookings Institution Discussion on U.S. Aid and Transparency for Global Development. Speakers: Introduction and Moderator: Noam Unger, Fellow, Global Economy and Development; Keynote Address by Rajiv Shah, Administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development; Panelists: Karin Christiansen, Director, Publish What You Fund; George Ingram, Co-Chair, Modernizing Foreign Assistance Network; and Daniel Kaufmann, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Development Assistance and Governance Initiative. WHERE: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW CONTACT: 202-797-6105; web site: www.brookings.edu SOURCE: Brookings Institution event announcement at: http://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/0119_aid_transparency.aspx -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FULLTEXT Malian army helicopters foil Tuareg rebel advance (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120118-malian-army-helicopters-foils-tuareg-rebeladvance-menaka?quicktabs_1=1 18 January 2012 By AFP A new Tuareg rebel group launched a second day of attacks on two more towns in Mali's arid north, a rebel spokesman said Wednesday, ending the tenuous peace that has existed between Tuareg groups and the government for the last two years. The National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad, whose members include Tuaregs who once fought for Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, launched raids on the towns of Aguelhok and Tessalit, said one of its leaders, Moussa Ag Acharatoumane. The fighting is still going on. It's mostly small arms, but we have heard some heavy weapons too, said Mohamed Ag Alhamisse, a student who spoke to The Associated Press by telephone from Tessalit. Gunfire could be heard in the background.

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Ag Alhamisse said events started early in the morning, when about 20 vehicles entered the town and then moved on to attack the army barracks about 4 miles (7 kilometers) outside the town. Aguelhok is currently under our control and we're working on Tessalit, said NMLA leader Ag Acharatoumane, who spoke to the AP by telephone from Paris. He said he could not yet give details on the number of people killed or wounded. Col. Idrissa Traore, spokesman for Mali's Armed Forces, confirmed there was fighting in both Aguelhok and Tessalit, but would not give further details. On Tuesday, the rebel group attacked the town of Menaka, near Mali's border with Niger. Aguelhok is about 260 miles (420 kilometers) northwest of Menaka and Tessalit is about 310 miles (500 kilometers) in the same direction. The rebel group has different divisions, and the expansive attacks suggest a wider assault, though northern Mali is mostly desert and there are not many towns. Both sides gave conflicting information about Tuesday's fighting. Mali's Armed Forces said in a statement released late Tuesday that many of the attackers and one government soldier had been killed. It said that six rebel vehicles were destroyed. However, rebel spokesman Hama Ag Sid'Ahmed told the AP by telephone from Paris that the rebels had killed many government soldiers and suffered no fatalities. Mali's Tuareg have risen up several times against the central government since the country gained independence from France in 1960. The latest fighting has been fueled in part by the return of Tuareg fighters who had been part of Libya's security forces. Many returned to Mali with weapons after the Gadhafi regime fell. Members of the Tuareg ethnic group live in several nations in northwest Africa. The NMLA was created when a number of Tuareg groups hostile to the government came together in October. Azawad, a name mainly used by Tuareg nationalists, refers to the Tuareg-speaking zone covering northern Mali, northern Niger, and southern Algeria where many of the blue-turbaned nomads live. The Malian government has expressed concern since the start of the war in Libya about its effects on security in Mali, a nation at the foot of the Sahara in northwest Africa. The Tuaregs have long complained that Mali's central government - which is dominated by ethnic groups from the country's south - has ignored the nation's impoverished north.

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Successive peace deals signed with the Tuaregs, including several that were mediated by Gadhafi himself, were supposed to give a greater share of the nation's resources to the Tuaregs but some factions have said the government did not fulfill its promises. ### Algeria says kidnapped governor freed on Libyan soil (Reuters) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/uk-algeria-libya-kidnapidUKTRE80G0PG20120117 18 January 2012 By Christian Lowe and Lamine Chikhi ALGIERS (Reuters) - A kidnapped Algerian regional governor has been freed after his captors were intercepted inside Libya, officials said on Tuesday, an incident that will raise new concerns about instability spilling over from Libya to its neighbours. Two Algerian security sources earlier told Reuters the governor was being held by al Qaeda. Security experts have warned the group is exploiting turmoil in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi to carve out a safe haven. Algeria's state news agency, citing a source close to the Interior Ministry, said the governor, Mohamed Laid Khelfi, was freed by the Libyan authorities when they stopped his kidnappers about 150 km inside Libyan territory. The agency said the governor would soon be handed over to the Algerian authorities at a nearby border crossing. An Algerian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters: "The governor is safe and well. He was freed. That is all I can say for now." DESERT ATTACK The kidnapping, deep in the Sahara desert, was the most audacious attack on a senior official for years in Algeria, which has been fighting a two-decade battle against Islamist insurgents. Khelfi, governor of the Illizi region about 1,700 km (1,000 miles) southeast of the Algerian capital, was driving away from a meeting on the Libyan border on Monday afternoon when three armed men stopped his convoy, the Interior Ministry said. The attackers released his driver and an aide, but took the governor in the direction of the border, a ministry statement said. The ministry did not identify the kidnappers, saying only they were young Algerian men who were known to the authorities. Two Algerian security officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the governor had been held by al Qaeda's north African branch, al Qaeda in the Islamic U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Maghreb (AQIM). One of the officials said the group had contacted Khelfi's family by telephone after he was captured. A leader of one of Tripoli's most powerful militia groups rejected any suggestion that Libya was failing to secure its own territory. "This is a security failure on the part of Algeria and we in Libya have nothing to do with it," Abdullah Naker, commander of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council which is loosely affiliated to Libya's interim government, told Reuters. "They shouldn't blame us for their security failure, our border is secured and the problem happened on the Algerian side of the border." AQIM carries out kidnappings, ambushes and suicide bombings, mainly in Algeria but also in neighbouring states which straddle the Sahara desert. With backing from Western states, which are concerned the group could spread its activities further afield, Algerian security forces have been able to reduce the insurgency to a small rump of fighters hiding out in remote areas. But instability in Libya could give AQIM a new lease of life by providing the insurgents with a source of weapons and a safe haven in vast desert tracts which the new Libyan authorities lack the capacity to police. "This (kidnapping) is a very dangerous escalation which shows that the group is feeling secure and strong because of the chaos in Libya," said Samer Riad, a security expert who runs Algeria's numidianews.com news portal. Western diplomats say Algeria is under serious threat from al Qaeda and is an important ally in helping fight the spread of the insurgency. Some security experts say the al Qaeda threat also helps Algeria garner international support. The kidnapping was unusual because in Algeria, governors and all other senior government officials almost always travel with heavy security details, making them a "hard" target, which the insurgents tend to avoid. One of the security officials who spoke to Reuters said the governor had on Monday been at Debdeb, a border crossing with Libya, trying to calm down local protesters angry at unemployment and poor living conditions. Among the protesters were relatives of Abdelhamid Abu Zeid, one of AQIM's leading field commanders in the Sahara desert, the official said. Abu Zeid is believed by many security experts to have ordered the killings of two foreigners kidnapped by his group, Frenchman Michel Germaneau and Briton Edwin Dyer.

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The security official said that the Illizi governor was kidnapped by local people who had been involved in the protest, and was subsequently handed over to insurgents under the command of Abu Zeid. ### Minister - Boko Haram Confined to Northeast (All Africa) http://allafrica.com/stories/201201180955.html 18 January 2012 The Minister of Defence Dr. Bello Halliru Mohammed yesterday said the military joint task force have succeeded in confining the members of the Boko Haram sect to the north eastern part of Nigeria and will eventually scatter them. He said most of the arms and ammunition used by unlawful groups to carry out criminal activities were brought into the country from conflict zones in other countries. "The military and other security forces are making effort to mop up arms in the hands of miscreants," he said at a press conference yesterday in Abuja. On the deployment of soldiers to streets following the nationwide protests against the removal of fuel subsidy, the minister defended the government's decision. He said soldiers were drafted to bring to an end protest rallies against government decision to end petrol subsidy to prevent clashes. The minister said that soldiers were deployed to prevent further rallies following the directives of the labour unions to suspend protests, based on security reports. "Government obtained reports that some groups were planning to cause chaos during further street protests to undermine the government. Soldiers were deployed to assist the police to maintain law and order." ### Half a Million Sudanese Will Face Famine by March, U.S. Special Envoy Says (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/half-a-million-sudanese-will-face-famineby-march-u-s-special-envoy-says.html 18 January 2012 By Franz Wild (in Pretoria) and Jared Ferrie (in Juba) About half a million people in Sudan's border states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile may face emergency conditions bordering on famine by March, said the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, Princeton Lyman. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

This could be a horrific tragedy that would rattle the souls of Africa and the world for years to come, Lyman said today in Pretoria, the South African capital. African leaders should urged Sudan to allow international and United Nations aid agencies access to the area, he said. There is a lot of pressure if that doesn't happen to try and provide assistance across the border against the wishes of the government of Sudan, he said. We have made no decision to do that. Border state clashes have intensified since South Sudan seceded on July 9 and took control of the former state's oil output of 490,000 barrels a day. President Umar alBashir's government is battling members of the Sudan People's Liberation MovementNorth, which was part of South Sudan's ruling party until the south's independence and is banned by Sudan. Zach Vertin, a Sudan analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said President Barack Obama's administration has been discussing the possibility of starting an operation to provide aid to civilians in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile without Sudan's approval. Pressure to Act Washington has given this a great deal of thought, as it and others have made clear that it will be difficult to ignore further catastrophe in Southern Kordofan, he said today by phone from Nairobi, Kenya. It's a very tough call, but with Khartoum providing no avenues for cooperation and an even greater humanitarian crisis looming, Washington feels pressed to act. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said yesterday that Sudan's government has deliberately denied access to international aid and UN workers in the conflict in the two states, Her concerns were spelled out in a Jan. 16 letter to the president of the Security Council, South Africa's Baso Sangqu. U.S. provision of aid without Sudan's consent, Vertin said, could potentially prompt a negative response from Khartoum, cause further deterioration of U.S.-Sudan relations, and generate consternation from those already made wary by international intervention in Libya. Direct Confrontation Lyman said the fighting in the two states risks drawing Sudan and South Sudan into direct confrontation. It's a serious conflict and because of that conflict there have been clashes between the government of Sudan and the forces of South Sudan over the border, he said. So there U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

is a danger not only in that conflict, but of it spreading and involving the two countries. It's a danger if this conflict isn't brought under control. Lyman urged the Sudanese authorities to halt bombing in the states and said that if they did and allowed aid groups access to Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, the U.S. was willing to move forward on discussions about removing Sudan from a State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism. Sudan has been categorized by the U.S. as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1993 and subject to U.S. economic sanctions since 1997. ### Slow response to East Africa hunger 'cost lives' (Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/aid-agencies-donors-slow-response-to-eastafrican-hunger-crisis-cost-thousands-of-lives/2012/01/18/gIQArUnW7P_story.html 18 January 2012 By Katherine Houreld Associated Press NAIROBI, Kenya Thousands of people died needlessly and millions of dollars were wasted because the international community did not respond fast enough to early signs of famine in East Africa, aid agencies said Wednesday, while warning of a new hunger crisis in West Africa. Most rich donor nations waited until the crisis in the Horn of Africa was in full swing before donating a substantial amount of money, according to the report by aid groups Oxfam and Save the Children. A food shortage had been predicted as early as August 2010, but most donors did not respond until famine was declared in parts of Somalia in July 2011. The report even blamed aid agencies, saying they were too slow to scale up their response. We all bear responsibility for this dangerous delay that cost lives in East Africa and need to learn the lessons of the late response, said Oxfam head Barbara Stocking. The British government estimates that between 50,000 and 100,000 people died from the famine, mostly Somalis. Ethiopia and Kenya were also affected but aid agencies were able to work more easily there than in war-ravaged Somalia. More than half of those who died are believed to be children. The United Nations says 250,000 Somalis are still at risk of starvation and more than 13 million people need aid. Among the report's findings: U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

 Donors expressed concern that Ethiopia underestimated the number of people in need and found that the lack of timely, accurate information made it more difficult to provide aid. Ethiopian government figures published in February 2011 said 2.8 million people were in need, and those figures were revised two months later and again in July 2011 to 4.5 million people. Kenya's food aid system carries out need assessments only twice a year, which end up being several months out of date. It added that corruption and political distractions, including a new constitution, reduced the national capacity to respond, although it said the reaction of the Kenyan public to the crisis was substantial. The situation was much worse in southern and central Somalia, where conflict and militancy prevented traditional drought responses and reduced the ability of aid groups to help. One Kenyan economist said it would have been difficult to prevent the famine in southcentral Somalia, which is mostly controlled by militants from al-Shabab, an insurgent group that has greatly limited what aid agencies can do in the region. I don't think the solution to famine is just sending money in good time, said economist James Shikwati. It also needs policy changes. Look at Somalia. (Even) if you have all the money in your pocket and all the grain in your store, unless al-Shabab allows you to access their areas, then people there are still going to starve. The report said many donors wanted to first see proof that there was a humanitarian catastrophe, and that caused a funding shortfall that delayed a large-scale response to the crisis by about six months. Governments, donors, aid groups and the U.N. need to change their approach to such disasters to help a larger number of people during the next hunger crisis, the report said. Ethiopia was able to minimize the effects of the drought because of the promotion of disaster risk management policy and practice, the report said. This contrasts with Somalia, where such work has been largely absent, due to access restrictions, a complex environment and the unwillingness of donors to invest, it said. Now, there are clear signs of an impending hunger crisis in West Africa, said Justin Forsyth, head of Save the Children. The report said a food crisis in the West African region known as the Sahel is being driven by drought and high food prices. The report says agencies should put into practice there what has been learned in the Somalia crisis. A recent Save the Children assessment in Niger shows families in the worst-hit areas are already struggling with around one-third less food, money and fuel than is necessary to survive. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Besides Niger, the other countries at risk are Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad, said Alun McDonald, regional spokesman for Oxfam. Friday will mark six months since the U.N. declared famine in Somalia. The earlier you respond, the more you get for your money, McDonald said. Trucking just over a gallon (5 liters) of water per day per person to 80,000 people in Ethiopia costs more than $3 million for five months, the report said, compared with $900,000 to prepare water sources in the same area for an oncoming drought. We've done a lot of water trucking. It's the last resort, McDonald said. It's a very expensive and inefficient way of delivering water. It's much more cost-effective to invest early on in things like dams, reservoirs, and boreholes, he said. The report also said it costs three times as much to restock a herd in northern Kenya than to keep it alive through supplementary feeding. The world knows an emergency is coming but ignores it until confronted with TV pictures of desperately malnourished children, Forsyth said. The World Food Program says that even though the worst of the crisis appears to be over, hundreds of thousands of people will still need food aid in the coming months to survive because their livestock have died and crops have not yet grown. Earlier this week, food donated by Cargill, the Minnesota-based producer and marketer of food, agricultural, financial and industrial products, was delivered to needy communities in Kenya. Cargill donated 10,000 metric tons of rice to WFP USA to be distributed in the Horn of Africa. The group said the donation the largest ever food donation to WFP USA would feed nearly 1 million people for a month. ### Central African leaders vow to promote regional integration, security (Xinhua) http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-01/17/c_131365359.htm 18 January 2012 N'DJAMENA, (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) -- Integration and sub-regional security were among the major issues discussed during the 15th summit of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC), which ended on Monday in N'Djamena, the Chadian capital. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

After two days of deliberations, the final communique from the meeting said the summit had decided that "the leaders within CEEAC should demonstrate political will by implementing the Contribution for Community Integration (CCI) program, allow free movement of people and goods and support the idea of a free trade area." The CCI, which is a new mechanism for funding of the CEEAC integration process, is not operational in most of the CEEAC countries. These countries are expected to mobilize their contributions and pay up the accumulated arrears. The conference appealed to member countries to legalize the CCI and to strictly implement it. The leaders also agreed that the community's decision taken on Oct. 30, 2007 on sanctions for non-payment by member states takes effect in 2012. In this regard, the conference asked the organization's secretary general to think of ways of not only promoting solidarity among member states on the political front, but on the economic and financial fronts. The summit, among others, passed a budget of 52.7 billion FCFA (105 million U. S. dollars) for the CEEAC in 2012. Out of the budget, 33.2 billion FCFA (66 million dollars) will be contributed by external partners. On the issue of a free trade area, none of the CEEAC member states has to this day implemented the decisions taken in that regard. Yet, the African Union has said on the minimum, the free trade area program should be operational at the regional level in 2012, inter-regional level in 2014 and on the continental level in 2017. The CEEAC summit fixed July 1 as the date for beginning the process of establishing the community's free trade area so that it can be effective by 2014. The leaders also acknowledged that the issue of free movement of persons had not been effected for some people. They asked member states to ratify relevant document such as the cooperation and judicial support agreement and the agreement on cooperation in the area of criminal police. On the security front, the CEEAC leaders agreed with their ministers who had asked the secretary general to continue with preparations for the plan to withdraw the Mission for Consolidation of Peace (MICOPAX 1) from the Central African Republic. The withdrawal of MICOPAX 1 will be done "with the transfer of responsibilities to the Central African Republic's forces (FACA), but emphasis will now be put on funding of FACA's operations." The authorities of the Central African Republic are currently fighting against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a Ugandan rebel group led by Joseph Kony, which has U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

committed atrocities in Uganda, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and South Sudan. The Central African Republic's authorities have formulated a request to the current CEEAC president, calling for reinforcement of FACA's capacity. The final communique from the N'Djamena summit noted, "This request has just been partially satisfied and the member states were asked to make additional effort to reinforce FACA's capacity. " The leaders also examined the issue of cooperation that the U. S. government wants to establish with the CEEAC in the next summit to be held in 2013 in the Chadian capital. At the summit, Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno was re- elected to the presidency of the CEEAC and his fellow countryman Nassour Guelengdouksia Ouadou (ex-speaker) was chosen as the general secretary of the regional organization to replace Louis- Sylvain Ngoma from Gabon. On the forthcoming elections in the African Union, the CEEAC member states reaffirmed their support for Jean Ping, who was in N'Djamena, as the AU Commission chairman. Created by a treaty signed in October 1983 in the Gabonese capital Libreville, the CEEAC came into force in December 1984, grouping 10 member states including Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, DR Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe and Chad. Attending the N'Djamena summit were presidents Deby Itno of Chad, Francois Bozize of the Central African Republic, Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea, Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo. Angola was represented by its Vice-president Fernando da Pierre, Sao Tome and Principe by its head of government Patrice Emery Trovoada, Cameroon by its Deputy Prime Minister Amadou Ali, DR Congo by its International and Regional Cooperation Minister Raymond Tshibanda N'Tungamulongo and Gabon by its Parliamentary Speaker Guy Nzouba Ndama. The meeting was also attended by the president of the AU Commission, Jean Ping, and Abou Moussa, the special representative of the UN secretary general. ### US military report predicts Nigeria's collapse by 2030 (Daily Trust) http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=152558: nigeria-may-collapse-in-2030-say-us-military-experts&catid=1:news&Itemid=2 18 January 2012 By Nuruddeen M. Abdallah U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Nigeria would be engaged in multipartite civil war like it happened in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991 before its final disintegration in 2030, a report by the United States military experts released by the Centre for Strategy and Technology, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama has said. The report written by five US military scholars and entitled "Failed State 2030: Nigeria A case study" and dated February 2011, is one of the many periodic scenario building analysis undertaken by the US military think tanks on the future of countries within the sphere of economic interests of the US. One of such simulated security dissertation on Nigeria was released during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo by the US National Intelligence Council, where the US intelligence experts predicted Nigeria's collapse in 2015. In the 156 page latest report, the US Air Force officers posit that "Nigeria's lack of unifying national identity, history of corrupt governance, religious and cultural schisms, and shifting demographics may cause the state, over time, to break apart." In the case of Nigeria in 2030, the experts believed that Nigeria's "history of tribal and religious conflicts, endemic corruption at all levels of government, poor national planning, uneven development, social disorder, rampant criminality, violent insurgency, and terminal weak governance provides an environment that could portend imminent collapse and failure." But the military scholars explained that the security report is "not a specific prediction of the future or a depiction of a state of affairs that will and must occur" but "a discussion of how the trends occurring in Nigeria since its birth as a nation in 1960 could, under the right conditions, lead to its failure." The report said that "fragmentation of the Nigerian body politic could create conditions for a multipartite civil war, mirroring in some ways the events in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991." The report however said that "Nigeria's 250 million people, 350 different ethnicities, and religious differences can, under the right circumstances, cause the nation to shatter in an instant." On good governance, the experts said that "by 2030, the social contract between the weakened federal government and the Nigerian people is effectively broken." Also, Nigeria's endemic corruption and the predatory economic practices of the oligarchs and their associated enterprises may well deplete the financial resources for economic diversification and critical human and industrial infrastructure resulting into "a loss of confidence and a lack of capital investment from the World Bank and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)," the report said. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

If the social contract between government and its people remains relatively strong where the government rules justly, invests in its people, and provides economic and political freedom, the report said, national survival is reasonably assured. Such favourable conditions become paths for success. However, if the government fails to invest in its people and rules through fear and intimidation and corruption becomes corrosively endemic, the bonds of trust between the government and its people could become irreparably weak, according to the scholars. "These negative trends in crosscutting conditions then become the path to failure," it said. "In 2030, with a population of more than 225 million people, 350 ethnicities, and multiple languages, Nigeria's negative social trends may become ever more destructive," the experts said. Although 2003 proved to be a watershed year in the level of violence throughout Nigeria, according to the report, explosive episodes of factional fighting will likely continue at a strong pace for at least another decade until reform measures instituted in 2008 begin to have a visible effect. "Even then, strong tribal allegiances combined with exploitable ignorance and perceived wrongs will spawn episodic violence between ethnic groups well beyond 2030," the report said. On the economic side, the report said that "on a larger scale, a failure of the Federal Republic of Nigeria or a state of similar influence would wreak havoc on the global economy." "With continued globalization and Nigeria's position as a major player in global economics now and in 2030, its collapse will have enormous wide-ranging impact." With its growing population and the importance of petroleum and natural gas to the world economy, "Nigeria's civil war, whether it occurs or not, could be devastating for Nigeria, West Africa in which Nigeria is the leading power, and Africa as a whole."

Nigeria's Vision 20:2020 may remain a dream because of corruption. "By 2030 a failure to address corruption will hinder investments to grow a middle class, harm Nigeria's credit rating, force early termination of oil contracts, and result in slower economic growth, thereby eliminating Nigeria as a top-20 world economy," the report said. "Attempts to remove corrupt influences from governance will be fought by those who have historically benefited from these arrangements, namely the criminal family enterprises and the business oligarchs," the report said. Adding that "business leaders, who have historically held great power, will not willingly allow their influence to be diluted. Conflict between security forces for criminal U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

enterprises, various militias, insurgents, and the Nigerian military will erupt. Each of these entities will strive to protect their respective interests." On the social angle, the ECOWAS, dominated by Nigeria and conducted peacekeeping operations in Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone "would likely be incapable of dealing with Nigeria's failure and a subsequent civil war," the report said. "With war, millions of refugees would flee across Nigeria's borders into Cameroon, Niger and Benin, putting tremendous strain on their human services, local infrastructure, and national economies," it said. The report predicted that "the more destructive the civil war, the greater the chance of genocide and other horrors that leave an indelible stain on human history." It said that restoring a failed state may be extraordinarily difficult in the case of Nigeria because "under conditions of failure and multipartite civil war, sorting through the ethnic and cultural stew will be virtually impossible since most people will identify more with their tribe, religion, or culture than with their country." In the areas of defence, the report confirmed military and defence synergy between Nigeria and the US, saying that "since 2009 the United States and the United Kingdom have transferred older vessels from their respective fleets, while providing training and equipment from their own navies, to Nigeria." They explained that "Nigeria's newly refurbished frigates and coastal patrol boats will be easily integrated into the US Navy's Seabasing Joint Integrating Concept, which stresses forward deployment of US naval forces to support national objectives in areas where the American forces are denied basing or access." By 2020, the report added, "the Niger Delta region may become the cause celebre for international environmental groups, given the extraordinary level of ecological damage. Radical environmental groups operating through social networking may funnel money and weapons to MEND forces to help them recruit new followers to take direct action against petroleum facilities and infrastructure." In the area of fighting terrorism, the report said that "any attempted inroads into West Africa by al-Qaeda or similar jihadist Salafist groups will likely be successfully thwarted by a resurgent Sokoto caliphate which may issue fatwas rejecting the violent jihadist ideology of these outsiders." "The caliphate may go so far as to brand any attempt by al-Qaeda to either sanction attacks or destroy Nigeria's oil production capacity as an attack on the Islamic people of northern Nigeria ," according to the report. The experts said that criminality experienced tremendous growth between 1993 and 2009, especially in the Niger Delta region and in Lagos, Nigeria's largest city; adding that U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

generous donations of money, training, social networking support, weapons, and support equipment provided by groups like the Earth Liberation Front will likely keep MEND viable. "By 2030 MEND should be able to maintain a well-trained force of up to10, 000 fighters who will conduct raids against national oil infrastructure, both on and offshore," the report said. Educationally, the report said that given the inconsistency of support for and application of education standards, "by 2030 it is likely Nigeria will be unable to honour its commitment to the African Union to invest one per cent of its GDP in science and technology instruction and development." According to the report, by 2030 Nigeria's population will reach 225 million people, with much of the growth in the Islamic north. Nigeria will likely be the sixth most populous country in the world and the Islamic north could account for almost 65 per cent of Nigeria's population. "By 2030 the average age in Nigeria will be less than 20 years, and life expectancy could increase by an average of 10 years," it said. [Source: Daily Trust website, Abuja, in English 18 Jan 12] ### Factbox: Foreigners attacked in Africa (MSNBC) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46042616/ns/travel/ 18 January 2012 Here are details of attacks on foreigners and those held by kidnappers around Africa. * ETHIOPIA: -- Two Germans, one Austrian, and two Hungarians were killed by gunmen in northern Ethiopia's remote Afar region on January 17. One Hungarian was also wounded. Ethiopia said the victims were part of a 27-member party that also included U.S., Australian and Belgian nationals. -- Two foreign tourists and two Ethiopians were kidnapped in the same attack. A German media report said the group had been close to the Erta Ale volcano, one of Ethiopia's most active - an area prone to banditry. -- An Ethiopian government spokesman said the attackers were Eritrean-trained but Eritrea rejected the accusation. * MALI: U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

November 23, 2011 - Two French men, an engineer and a technician who work for a local cement firm, were abducted from their hotel in the town of Hombori, about 200 km (125 miles) west of the northern city of Gao in northern Mali. November 25, 2011 - Gunmen seized three people and killed a fourth person as the group walked along a street in the northern Mali town of Timbuktu. The three kidnapped were from South Africa, the Netherlands and Sweden. -- Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of the two Frenchmen and the three other Westerners. * SOMALIA: April 2008 - Gunmen seized a Briton and a Kenyan working on a U.N.-funded project. July 14, 2009 - Somali gunmen kidnapped two French security advisers in Mogadishu. One of them, Marc Aubriere, escaped on August 26. November 8, 2010 - The European Union anti-piracy task force said it had rescued a South African yachtsman after he was left behind by Somali pirates. Two other South African crew members were taken ashore as hostages. October 25, 2011 - Three aid workers attached to the Danish Demining Group were kidnapped in the north of the country, the group said. One was a Somali man, two were international staff members: American Jessica Buchanan and a Dane, Poul Thisted. * KENYA/SOMALIA: September 11, 2011 - Gunmen raided the Kiwayu Safari Village, shooting dead British publishing executive David Tebbutt, and taking his wife Judith hostage, before escaping by boat and taking her to Somalia. October 11, 2011 - Six armed men stormed a house on the island of Manda on Kenya's northern coast, grabbed 66-year-old wheelchair-bound Marie Dedieu and carried her to a boat that took her to Somalia. Paris said on October 19 that Dedieu had died. October 13, 2011 - Two Spanish female aid workers employed by Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) were kidnapped at Kenya's Dadaab refugee camp near Somalia. The two were later named as Blanca Thiebaut from Madrid, and Montserrat Serra. They have since been moved to central Somalia. * ALGERIA: February 2, 2011 - A 53-year-old Italian woman, Maria Sandra Mariani, was kidnapped by al Qaeda insurgents while on a tourist trip to the Sahara desert. October 23, 2011 - Three foreign workers, two Spanish and one Italian, were abducted from a refugee camp near Tindouf in western Algeria. The kidnappers had crossed from Mali. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

-- Spain named the two as Ainhoa Fernandez de Rincon, a member of a pro-Sahrawi organisation, and Enric Gonyalons who was working with the Basque non-profit group Mundubat. The Italian was Rossella Urru from the Rome-based group Comitato Italiano Sviluppo dei Popoli. * NIGERIA: May 12, 2011 - Two engineers, a Briton and an Italian, working for Italian construction firm B. Stabilini in Kebbi State in northern Nigeria were kidnapped in the town of BirninKebbi. * NIGER: September 16, 2010 - Seven foreigners were kidnapped in Arlit, in Niger's northern uranium mining zone. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb claimed responsibility and demanded a 90 million euro ($130 million) ransom. -- The foreigners, including five French nationals, were employees of French firms Areva and Vinci and were taken by their captors to Mali on September 17, 2010. February 25, 2011 - A Togolese, a Malagasy man and the French wife of an Areva employee were freed and handed over to authorities in Niger. ### UN asserts Eritrea role in arming Shabaab (Daily Nation) http://www.nation.co.ke/News/UN+asserts+Eritrea+role+in+arming+Shabaab//1056/1309472/-/uhffjw/-/ 19 January 2012 By Kevin Kelley NEW YORK -- The United Nations' preliminary rejection of Kenya's allegations of Eritrean arms shipments to Al-Shabaab does not undercut findings of Eritrean military support for the militia, a UN arms monitor told the Nation on Tuesday. Matthew Bryden, coordinator of the world body's Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group, said UN investigators stand by their annual report in July that "Eritrea still retains active linkages to Somali armed groups". The UN Security Council tightened sanctions on Eritrea last month in response to evidence that the country is violating the UN embargo on military assistance to rebel forces in Somalia. A leaked preliminary update to the monitoring group's annual report states, however, that Kenya's claim in November of Eritrean arms being flown into the Somali town of Baidoa are "incorrect". U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Mr Bryden added on Tuesday that we have no credible information indicating those flights took place. Noting that Kenyan officials say they have further evidence of the Eritrean flights, Mr Bryden said the UN monitoring group would not draw a firm conclusion until after discussing the matter with Kenya. Kenya UN Ambassador Macharia Kamau emphasised that the country's claim of arms deliveries to Al-Shabaab through Baidoa was in no way the primary driver of the sanctions imposed on Eritrea last month by the Security Council. The council acted on a wide range of developments, Ambassador Kamau told the Nation on Monday. He reiterated criticisms of Eritrea for supporting Al-Shabaab politically as well as militarily. The least Eritrea could do is to speak clearly in condemning Al-Shabaab, which is something Eritrea has chosen not to do, Ambassador Kamau said. Mr Bryden told the Nation that the UN Monitoring Group also reaffirms what may be the most dramatic finding in its July report: that in January 2011, the government of Eritrea conceived, planned, organised and directed a failed plot to disrupt the African Union summit in Addis Ababa by bombing a variety of civilian and governmental targets. ### News Headline: Insight: The drone war (Defence web) http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22639:t he-drone-war&catid=49:National%20Security&Itemid=115 19 January 2012 By David Rohde Reuters They kill without warning, are comparatively cheap, risk no American lives, and produce triumphant headlines. Over the last three years, drone strikes have quietly become the Obama administration's weapon of choice against terrorists. Since taking office, President Barack Obama has unleashed five times as many drone strikes as George W. Bush authorized in his second term in the White House. He has transformed drone attacks from a rarely used tactic that killed dozens each year to a twice-weekly onslaught that killed more than 1,000 people in Pakistan in 2010. Last year, American drone strikes spread to Somalia and Libya as well. In the wake of the troubled, trillion-dollar American invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, drone strikes are a talisman in Washington. To cash-strapped officials, drones eliminate the United States' enemies at little human, political, or financial cost. The sweeping use of drone strikes in Pakistan, though, has created unprecedented antiAmerican sentiment in that country. While U.S. intelligence officials claim that only a handful of civilians have died in drone attacks, the vast majority of Pakistanis believe U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

thousands have perished. Last year, the Pakistani government apparently blocked American drone strikes after tensions escalated between the two governments. After a CIA contractor killed two Pakistanis in January and American commandos killed Osama bin Laden in March, there were no drone strikes there for weeks at a time. In November, drone strikes stopped again after an American airstrike killed 26 Pakistani soldiers near the border with Afghanistan. As of late December, there had been no strikes in Pakistan for six weeks, the longest pause since 2008, and a glaring example of the limitations of drone warfare. My perspective on drones is an unusual one. In November 2008, the Afghan Taliban kidnapped two Afghan colleagues and me outside Kabul and ferried us to the tribal areas of Pakistan. For the next seven months, we were held captive in North and South Waziristan, the focus of the vast majority of American drone strikes during that period. In June 2009, we escaped. Several months later, I wrote about the experience in a series of articles for the New York Times, my employer at the time. Throughout our captivity, American drones were a frequent presence in the skies above North and South Waziristan. Unmanned, propeller-driven aircraft, they sounded like a small plane - a Piper Cub or Cessna-circling overhead. Dark specks in a blue sky, they could be spotted and tracked with the naked eye. Our guards studied their flight patterns for indications of when they might strike. When two drones appeared overhead they thought an attack was imminent. Sometimes it was, sometimes it was not. The drones were terrifying. From the ground, it is impossible to determine who or what they are tracking as they circle overhead. The buzz of a distant propeller is a constant reminder of imminent death. Drones fire missiles that travel faster than the speed of sound. A drone's victim never hears the missile that kills him. Our Afghan and Pakistani Taliban guards despised the drones and disparaged them as a cowardly way for America to wage war. The 2009 surge in drone attacks in Pakistan prompted our guards to hate Obama even more than they hated Bush. The most difficult day of our captivity was March 25, 2009. Late that afternoon, a drone attack occurred just outside our house in Makeen, South Waziristan. Missiles fired by an American drone had struck dozens of yards away. After chunks of mud and bits of shrapnel landed in our courtyard. Our guards hustled me down a hillside and ordered me to get inside a station wagon. They told me to lie down, place a scarf over my face, and say nothing. We all knew that if local militants enraged by the attack learned an American prisoner was in the area, I would be killed. As I lay in the car, I heard militants shout with fury as they collected their dead. A woman wailed somewhere in the distance. I silently recited the Lord's Prayer. After 15 minutes, the guards took me back to our house and explained what had happened. Missiles from American drones had struck two cars, they said, killing seven Arab militants and local Taliban fighters. Later, I learned that one of our guards U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

suggested I be taken to the site of the attack and ritually beheaded. The chief guard overruled him. The strikes fueled a vicious paranoia among the Taliban. For months, our guards told us of civilians being rounded up, accused of working as American spies and hung in local markets. Immediately after that attack in South Waziristan, a feverish hunt began for a local spy who the Taliban were convinced had somehow secretly guided the Americans to the two cars. Several days after the strike, our guards told us foreign militants had arrested a local man and accused him of guiding the drones. After the jihadists disemboweled the villager and chopped off his leg, he "confessed" to being an American spy, they said. Then the militants decapitated the man and hung his corpse in the local bazaar as a warning. My time in captivity filled me with enormous sympathy for the Pakistani civilians trapped between the deranged Taliban and ruthless American technology. They inhabit a hell on earth in the tribal areas. Both sides abuse them. I am convinced Taliban claims that only civilians die in drone strikes are false, as are American claims that only militants do. Drone strikes are not a silver bullet against militancy, nor are they a wanton practice that fells only civilians. They weaken militant groups without eliminating them. During my time in the tribal areas, it was clear that drone strikes disrupted militant operations. Taliban commanders frequently changed vehicles and moved with few bodyguards to mask their identities. Afghan, Pakistani, and foreign Taliban avoided gathering in large numbers. The training of suicide bombers and roadside bomb makers was carried out in small groups to avoid detection. Altogether, 22 drone strikes killed at least 76 militants and 41 civilians in North and South Waziristan during our seven months in captivity, according to news reports. Some strikes clearly succeeded. Our guards reacted with fury, for example, when Uzbek bomb makers they knew were killed in a drone strike. They also showed my Afghan colleagues the graves of children they said died in strikes. It is impossible for journalists, human rights groups, or outside investigators to definitively determine the ratio of civilians to militants killed by American drones. The United States refuses to release details or publicly acknowledge the attacks, which they insist are classified. Militants, meanwhile, refuse to allow unfettered access to the area. The strikes kill senior leaders and weaken Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, and the Afghan Taliban, but militants use exaggerated reports of civilian deaths to recruit volunteers and stoke anti-Americanism. I believe the drones create a stalemate between militant groups and U.S. intelligence agencies. While drones are seen as a triumph of American technology in the United States, they provoke intense public anger in Pakistan. Exaggerated Taliban claims of civilian deaths are widely believed by the Pakistanis, who see the strikes as a flagrant violation of the U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

United States' purported support for human rights. Analysts believe that killing a senior militant in a drone strike is a tactical victory but a loss over the long term because it weakens public support for an American-backed crackdown on militancy in Pakistan, which many analysts think is essential. "In the short term, it puts (the militants) on the back foot," a former United Nations official in the region who spoke on condition of anonymity told me. "In the overall community, it's devastating." Worsening the problem, the U.S. has allowed the Pakistani military to falsely claim that it has no control over the drone strikes. American drones operate out of Pakistani air force bases with the permission of Pakistani forces, yet the Pakistani public is told that a foreign power is carrying out unilateral attacks inside their country and violating their sovereignty. Pakistan is not the only country experiencing drone attacks. Since 2001, the United States has carried out drone strikes in five other countries - Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Libya and Somalia. In Libya, the American military carried out 146 drone strikes during NATO's seven-month bombing campaign against the Gaddafi regime. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the CIA and the American military do not disclose the number of attacks, but a senior American military official put the number at "dozens" since 2001. The most alarming pattern has emerged in Yemen and Somalia. The exact number of strikes in both countries is unknown. Local media in Yemen report strikes as often as once a week, but American officials decline to confirm that. On September 30, 2011, a drone flying over Yemen set a new precedent. Without a trial or any public court proceeding, the United States government killed two American citizens, Anwar Al Awlaki and Samir Khan. The target of the attack was Awlaki, a New Mexico-born Yemeni-American whose charismatic preaching inspired terrorist attacks around the world, including the 2009 killing of 13 soldiers in Fort Hood, Texas. Civil liberties groups argued that a dangerous new threshold had been crossed. For the first time in American history, the United States had executed two of its citizens without trial. The Obama Administration cited a secret Justice Department memorandum as justification for the attack. Its authors contended that Awlaki's killing was legal due to his role in attacks on the United States and his presence in an area where American forces could not easily capture him. The administration declined to publicly release the full document. Many experts insist a new approach to drones is desperately needed. Strikes should continue, they say, but in a vastly different manner. Among the changes they suggest: The U.S. must end its absurd practice of refusing to publicly acknowledge attacks. Many analysts also believe Washington should accede to longstanding demands from the Pakistani, Afghan, and other local governments for more control over the use of drones. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Their reasoning is simple: Along with the United States, local officials will then bear the burden of building local public support for drone strikes. "They have asked for sharing the responsibility, but also means sharing the technology," Vali Nasr, a Tufts University professor and former senior Obama Administration adviser on Pakistan, told me. "We have resisted that, but the benefit is that you give the local government ownership." For all their shortcomings, drones do present a tempting though far from perfect martial option. Drones can reach jihadists in remote mountains and deserts inaccessible to American and local troops. They have taken out top militants, such as the Pakistani Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud, who was responsible for the killing of thousands of Pakistani civilians in suicide bombings. And they have slowed the training of suicide bombers and roadside bomb makers, most of whose victims are innocent Afghan and Pakistani bystanders, not American troops. But drones alone are not the answer. Over the long term, it will be moderate Muslims who defeat militancy, not technology. By David Rohde (David Rohde is a Reuters columnist. Any opinions expressed are his own.) ### News Headline: State Partnership Program Emphasizes Building Relationships (Defense.gov) http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=66807 18 January 2012 By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. American Forces Press Service WASHINGTON, Jan. 17, 2012 A small, but innovative, program demonstrates the U.S. military's very agile and flexible capabilities in working with partners, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said recently. Meeting with reporters Jan. 5 after the announcement of President Barack Obama's new strategic guidance for the U.S. military, Navy Adm. James A. Winnefeld Jr. brought up the National Guard's State Partnership Program as an example of an ongoing effort that lines up well with the new strategy. It's a very high-leverage program where individual states will partner with another nation in Europe or Africa or Asia, Winnefeld said. It's proven to be a very, very valuable high-leverage tool for us, so we plan to build on things like that to help us on these innovative approaches to other parts of the world. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

In a subsequent interview with American Forces Press Service, Air Force Col. Joey Booher, chief of international affairs for the National Guard Bureau, said the program is where the rubber meets the road. It's a [Defense Department] program that's managed by the National Guard Bureau, but executed by the states, he explained. The states, the adjutant general, the state coordinator who works with the combatant commander's staff and the partner nation [work] to meet collective security cooperation objectives. Booher said the fall of the Berlin Wall and U.S. military leadership's engagement with the former Warsaw Pact nations were the impetus for the program's creation. The U.S. was trying to engage with the former communist nations that were in the Warsaw Pact, and using active duty troops might have been a little too offensive to the Russians or the folks that were in there, so the idea was to use the small footprint of National Guard troops, he said. The state adjutants general partnered with Air Force Lt. Gen. John B. Conaway, then the chief of the National Guard Bureau, to explore how to do this, Booher added. Booher noted the National Guard was a perfect fit because of its force structure and capabilities such as disaster response, consequence management, interaction between the state governments and the federal government. What the goals of the program were back then were promoting American principles and values while supporting democracy abroad, and also building institutions to keep Americans safe and the world peaceful, he said. Those were the broad objectives we had. The colonel lauded the program's success as it approaches its 20th anniversary in 2013. The first three partnerships were developed in 1993 with the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, he said, and all three partnerships still are going strong. It started off with [those] three countries, and right now we have 63 partnerships spread throughout 69 countries around the globe, he said. So if you're just looking for growth in the program, that's a testament to what its accomplished in its goals and objectives. Booher said the original partnerships were between Michigan and Latvia, Pennsylvania and Lithuania, and Maryland and Estonia. What we do is partner one country with one state, and that way the continuity is there, he said. Why do we do that? The best thing that you get out of this is the relationship. So we feel the state partnership that enduring, persistent relationship over time that's money.

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

Those relationships are a critical factor, Booher noted, especially in light of the recent announcement the U.S. Army will replace two brigades in Europe with rotating units. The state partnership program is that connective tissue back to the States for DOD, for the Guard, for the country teams [and] for [the] State [Department], he said. The State Partnership Program now provides 31,309 troops and military experts to United Nations peacekeeping efforts, Booher noted. These critical partner-country deployments reduce pressure [on] U.S. forces worldwide and reduce the need for more direct and costly U.S. military involvement in future contingencies, he added. Booher cited the Colorado-Jordan F-16 relationship as an example. You have Jordan, who participated in the Libyan effort, helped and facilitated by Colorado Guardsmen to get them up to a point where now they're able to take on NATO taskings on their own without our heavy support, he said. Looking forward, the colonel said, the program's goal is to be the best force provider for the Defense Department's security cooperation goals. That's what I see, he added. If the [combatant commanders] have a requirement [or] if DOD has a requirement for security cooperation, then we're there and ready to support, as resources allow. Booher said he believes the State Partnership Program also is efficient in terms of budgetary concerns. This is a great bang for the buck' in a time of reduced budgets, he said. And again, as Admiral Winnefeld said, we need innovative approaches, and SPP is a low-cost, highimpact, very valuable high-leverage program that is very relevant to our new defense strategy. The colonel noted that the vice chairman brought up the $13.5 million dollar program in his press briefing without prompting, out of many other DOD programs he might have talked about instead. I think that might be a testament to just how valuable this has become, he said. This is a good program. This is good for America. ### U.S. braces for 'new' terror threats (WTOP) http://wtop.com/?nid=215&sid=2707441 16 January 2012 By J.J. Green WASHINGTON - Evolving terror threats will remain an immense challenge well into the 21st century, according to U.S. government officials. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

State Department documents indicate that combating far-flung, well connected "new terrorist threats will require innovative strategies, creative diplomacy and stronger partnerships." The department's answer is the newly minted Bureau of Counterterrorism, formerly known as the Office of Combating Terrorism. It is designed to utilize a strong hybrid of diplomatic, intelligence, investigative and protective tools to neutralize some of the exotic blends of terror threats that may be coming. The unveiling of the bureau comes at a pivotal time in the war against violent extremism. "We're very concerned about indigenous groups like Boko Haram [a Nigerian group] hooking up with al-Qaida affiliates, learning greater tradecraft for bombings and other types of attacks," said Daniel Benjamin, ambassador-at-large and coordinator for counterterrorism. Almost two months after killing al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden in May 2011, the White House released its national strategy for counterterrorism. Among the top goals was "degrading links between al-Qaida, its affiliates and adherents." "For all the very impressive blows that have been dealt to that group, it still remains capable and eager to carry out attacks against the United States," Benjamin said. Much of that capability rests with al-Qaida's ability to influence others. "There's no question that as al-Qaida's senior leadership has found it harder to operate. They've tried to step up their own ability to influence," Benjamin said. Once al-Qaida successfully attracted the attention of groups such as Boko Haram, it has a full range of terrorism services it can provide to franchisees. Benjamin says those services include "tips on how to do their messaging more effectively, their recruitment, their finances and so forth. We really don't want al-Qaida affiliates to fund and support groups farther afield, and we're very concerned about the spread about this kind of terrorism." The prevailing wisdom in U.S. diplomatic circles is that upgrading the Office for Combating Terrorism to its current form puts more teeth into the effort to defeat terrorism. But experts ask a key question: Why now? "It seems to me it's probably a move that should have been done immediately after 2001," said Dennis Pluchinsky, a retired State Department counterterrorism agent.

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"If at the time, the threat was serious and increasing, then maybe that was the time to promote the State Department's office into a bureau. Doing it now, some 10 years after 2001, personally, I don't understand the rationale." Benjamin says he can't answer what a previous administration did or didn't do. "I can say this was done as part of the larger reorganization that the [Secretary of State Hillary Clinton] called for in her major policy document, the quadrennial diplomacy and development review. "[The review] was her major assessment of the department, what we should be doing, where our major focus should be," Benjamin said. Pluchinsky says all of the intelligence he and other experts have seen suggests the terrorism threat is has been significantly set back, for now and wonders if "the State Department must be looking at a different threat assessment." He wonders if the change is just an "administrative" move to increase the State Department's visibility on counterterrorism. He points out the new bureau is not much different from the small office it replaced. "We're doing the same work but we're now doing it on a better platform, with better infrastructure for having the kinds of effects that we want to have and really having the voice that we need to on this important subject," Benjamin said. Al-Qaida, the Taliban and other violent extremist groups represent just one category of threats facing the U.S. There are nation-states that pose imminent danger to the U.S. That's part of the reason President Barack Obama announced a shift in the U.S. defense policy during a Pentagon news briefing on Jan. 5. "We'll be able to ensure our security with smaller conventional ground forces," the president said. "We'll continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems so that we can invest in the capabilities that we need for the future, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, counterterrorism, countering weapons of mass destruction and the ability to operate in environments where adversaries try to deny us access." Later at the same briefing, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said, "Even though the Iraq war is over and a draw down is underway in Afghanistan, the United States still faces a complex and growing array of security challenges across the globe." At the top of Panetta's list of challenges is "the proliferation of lethal weapons and materials; the destabilizing behavior of nations like Iran and North Korea; the rise of new powers across Asia; and the dramatic changes that we've seen unfold in the Middle East." ### U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office  +49(0)711-729-2687  AFRICOMPAO@africom.mil

END REPORT

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