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HCC
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 3QFY12 946.0 110.5 (130.4) 3QFY11 1,008.6 132.0 7.9 % chg (yoy) (6.2) (16.3) 2QFY12 828.6 93.7 (40.5) % chg (qoq) 14.2 17.9 -
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,280 1.5 43/16 987,462 1 16,739 5,049 HCNS.BO HCC@IN
`21 -
For 3QFY2012, HCCs reported poor set of results with, revenue and EBITDAM coming in line with our and street estimates, however earnings plunged on account of provisions (expected future losses and cost revisions) to the tune of `166cr. We believe these provisions are not exceptional in nature, as classified by the company and pertain to normal course of business. As of 3QFY2012, the total outstanding order book stands at `16,240cr (excluding L1 orders of `1,574cr) with order inflow of ~`840cr in the quarter. Owing to concerns such as slowdown in order inflow, high debt and stretched working capital, we remain Neutral on the stock. Provisions lead to huge loss: On the top-line front, HCCs revenues declined by 6.2% yoy to `946.0cr (`1,009cr) against our estimate of `982.0cr due to slowdown in order inflow and execution bottlenecks. EBITDAM came in at 11.7% (12.6%), a dip of 90bp yoy and marginally lower than our estimate of 11.9%. On the earnings front, HCC reported a loss of `130.4cr vs. profit of `7.9cr in 3QFY11, against our estimate of loss of `25.5cr owing to decline in revenue, EBITDA margin and provisioning of `166cr. Interest cost came at `104.3cr, a decline of 39.4%/2.9% on yoy/qoq basis. Outlook and valuation: On the valuations front, at current levels, the stock trades at 32.8x PE and 1.0x P/BV on FY2013E on standalone basis. We have valued HCC on an SOTP basis with a fair value of `32/share by assigning 6x FY2013E earnings (standalone). The companys real estate venture has been valued on NAV basis and its BOT assets have been valued on FCFE basis. Our fair value implies an upside of 51.2% from current levels, but we continue to maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock, owing to concerns mentioned above. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T, Sadbhav and IVRCL.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 39.9 11.5 24.6 24.1
3m
1yr
FY2010 3,644 10.0 81 7.2 12.2 1.3 15.7 0.8 6.5 8.6 1.0 8.1
FY2011 4,093 12.3 71 (12.8) 13.2 1.2 18.0 0.8 4.7 8.3 1.1 8.4
FY2012E 3,915 (4.3) (187) 12.0 (3.1) 1.0 5.4 1.4 11.9
FY2013E 4,633 18.3 39 12.6 0.6 32.8 1.0 3.1 7.1 1.1 8.6
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 946.0 835.6 110.5 11.7 104.3 41.2 10.2 (166.3) (191.3) (60.9) (130.4) (13.8) (2.1)
3QFY11 1,009 876.6 132.0 13.1 74.8 38.2 (5.6) 13.4 5.5 7.9 0.8 0.1
2QFY12 828.6 734.9 93.7 11.3 107.4 41.4 (3.0) (58.1) (17.6) (40.5) (4.9) (0.7)
9MFY12 2,833 2,490 342.1 12.1 305.0 121.9 7.9 (166.3) (243.3) (75.2) (168.1) (5.9) (2.8)
9MFY11 2,882 2,517 364.9 12.7 199.6 108.7 3.6 60.2 17.9 42.3 1.5 0.7
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Projects update
For Dhule-Palasner project, HCC has received clearance for commissioning of Dhule-Palasner project from NHAI. The company expects to achieve commercial operational date (COD) by February 2012 which is four months ahead of scheduled COD - June 2012.
Lavasa Update
In latest development on the Lavasa project, the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF), through its order dated 9th November, 2011 accorded environment clearance to the 1st phase of Lavasa. Construction has resumed at the project site and the company is in the process of getting the project site fully mobilised. As per the management, mobilisation should be completed by June 2012. However, the complete project still remains under the cloud of uncertainty as the MOEF clearance received is for Phase 1 only, along with with uncertainty on fund raising owing to unfavorable market conditions and high debt in books of Lavasa.
3QFY12
Although HCC has classified the provisions of `166cr as exceptional items, we believe these pertain to normal course of business.
5.0
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
(4.9)
3QFY12
(5.0)
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
FY2013E Variation (%) (5.7) (40)bp 224.7 Earlier estimates 4,633 12.6 39.0 Revised estimates 4,633 12.6 39.0 Variation (%) 3,915 12.0
Revised estimates
(187.4)
On the valuations front, at current levels, the stock trades at 32.8x PE and 1.0x P/BV on FY2013E on standalone basis. We have valued HCC on an SOTP basis with a fair value of `32/share by assigning 6x FY2013E earnings (standalone). The companys real estate venture has been valued on NAV basis and its BOT assets have been valued on DCF basis. Our fair value implies an upside of 51.2% from current levels, but we continue to maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock, owing to structural concerns faced by the company. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T, Sadbhav and IVRCL.
Remarks 6.0x FY2013E earnings NAV Basis 30% Discount to PE deal, valuing it at `1,650cr
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 3,929 3,083 10,158 3.3 7,616 3,314 14,460 4.4 6,054 3,644 16,870 4.6 3,410 4,093 16,187 4.0 3,871 3,915 16,143 4.1 4,897 4,633 16,406 3.5
Recommendation rationale
Huge investments and elongated working capital = Balance sheet stretched: HCCs balance sheet is loaded with debt (~`4,300cr as of 3QFY2012; net D/E = 2.7 standalone level) because of its BOT/real estate investments and funding of its working capital requirements (~328 days as on 9MFY2012). Going ahead as well, owing to its commitments, we believe HCC will not get any respite on these fronts. Deteriorating business environment: Slowdown on the execution front, along with macro headwinds faced by the sector, has resulted in eroding the companys profitability. Further, the fact that there are no signs of reversal in sight paints a bleak outlook for the company in the medium term. Uncertainty on the Lavasa project: Lavasa received clearance for the construction and development for Phase 1 in November 2011, post one year of legal battle with MOEF, which resulted in huge losses to HCC. However, the project still remains under the cloud of uncertainty and continues to be an overhang on the stock.
13,832 13,763 16,017 43,905 53,503 60,090 1,816 5,074 3,476 7,850 2,209 4,889 1,952 5,095 3,271 2,602 5,562 2,503 5,749 3,586 2,585 6,485
9,585 10,592
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order book to sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Work. cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.6 4.3 1.8 2.2 5.0 1.5 1.5 5.3 1.6 2.2 6.1 1.3 3.4 9.2 0.7 3.0 6.4 1.1 2.5 230 0 125 153 2.1 271 1 153 172 2.1 318 1 186 207 2.2 360 0.4 229 250 1.9 438 0 283 332 2.0 391 0 299 277 9.8 10.8 7.7 9.9 10.6 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 8.3 8.6 4.7 5.4 5.6 7.1 7.3 3.1 8.8 0.7 1.2 7.5 6.3 1.5 9.4 9.5 0.8 1.1 8.1 7.7 1.9 8.7 9.0 0.7 1.0 6.0 5.7 1.8 6.7 9.5 0.6 0.9 5.5 6.2 1.8 4.3 7.7 0.7 0.7 3.9 7.3 2.8 8.6 0.7 0.8 4.8 5.7 3.2 2.1 2.9 1.2 2.8 0.8 16.6 3.0 1.3 3.2 0.8 16.6 2.7 1.3 3.2 0.8 25.0 1.2 1.2 3.7 0.9 25.1 (3.1) (3.1) (0.3) 0.9 21.0 0.6 0.6 3.7 0.9 20.5 17.5 7.6 1.3 3.8 0.9 7.8 1.0 2.7 16.9 6.7 1.3 3.8 1.0 8.0 1.0 4.4 15.7 6.6 0.8 3.8 1.0 8.1 0.9 4.6 18.0 5.7 0.8 4.3 1.1 8.4 0.9 4.0 1.0 4.3 1.4 11.9 1.0 4.1 32.8 5.7 1.0 4.3 1.1 8.6 0.9 3.5 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12