An Analysis of the GPU Market

Jon Peddie Research 4 Saint Gabrielle Court Tiburon, CA 94920 415.435.9368

 Copyright Jon Peddie Research 2011. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission from Jon Peddie Research. This report is the property of Jon Peddie Research (JPR) and is made available to a restricted number of clients only upon these terms and conditions. The contents of this report represent the interpretation and analysis of statistics and information that is either generally available to the public or released by responsible agencies or individuals. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Jon Peddie Research reserves all rights herein. Reproduction or disclosure in whole or in part to parties other than the Jon Peddie Research client who is the original subscriber to this report is permitted only with the written and express consent of Jon Peddie Research. This report shall be treated at all times as a confidential and proprietary document for internal use only. Jon Peddie Research reserves the right to cancel your subscription or contract in full if its information is copied or distributed to other divisions of the subscribing company without the written approval of Jon Peddie Research. This report contains a review of various products. It is not an endorsement or attempt to sell any products. Under the rules of the Fair Use Doctrine, JPR assumes no responsibility for the correct or incorrect usage of any trademarks or service marks.

An Analysis of the GPU Market

An Analysis of the GPU Market

The discrete GPU is alive and thriving
Computer graphics is hard work. Behind the images you see in games and movies, or while editing photos or video, some serious processing is taking place. All the processing power you can muster is needed to push and polish pixels. And this task is only going to get more demanding as these applications get more sophisticated. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), which do the heavy lifting in computer graphics, range greatly in size, price and performance. They span from tiny cores inside an ARM processor (such as Nvidias Tegra or Qualcomms Snapdragon), to graphics integrated within an X86 processor (such as AMDs Fusion, Intels Sandy Bridge), to a standalone discrete device, or dGPU (such as AMDs Radeon, or Nvidias GeForce). Graphics is the poster child of parallel problems, so its not surprising that GPUs are parallel processors providing super high performance. They are comprised of a matrix of specialized 32bit floating point processors, with as few as four cores (also called shader processing units) to as many as 1,600 cores. The more cores, the higher the performance. And there is effectively no limit to the number of cores they can contain other than the constraints of state-of-the-art of process technology, as well as chip size and the power required to drive the chip. Although the popular press and some analysts would like to believe otherwise, theres a simple truth in the business: You cant get the same level of performance from integrated graphics as you can from a dGPU. Its a matter of basic physics. Given that all processors use basically the same size transistors, the how big is the chip? Stated another way, how many transistors does it have? Second, how many of those transistors can be, or are, dedicated to graphics? And finally, how do you cool such a device? To give some sense of the range of transistors in processors, consider this: Nvidias Tegra 2 chip has 260 million transistors. Qualcomms Snapdragon has 200 million to 300 million transistors. AMDs Llano 4C has 1.45 billion transistors. Intels Sandy Bridge has 995 million transistors. AMDs latest Radeon has 2.64 billion. And Nvidias GeForce has 3 billion transistors. Now consider how many transistors are used just for graphics in these various processors.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Transistors (M)
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

1000
500 0 Est Graphics transistors Non Gfx Transistors Snapdragon 38 213 Tegra2 26 234 SNB 249 746 Llano 4C 290 1160 Cayman 2640 0 Fermi 3000 0

Figure 1: Transistors used in graphics Obviously you cant get the same level of performance out of 26 million graphics transistors as you can from 3 billion. And you cant take the power consumption and subsequent heat generation of a 290 million transistor, 250-watt CPU like Sandy Bridge and integrate another 250-watt 3 billion GeForce or similar GPUunless you cryogenically cooled it. If you tried to put those two giant chips tighter that would be a blivet10 pounds of stuff in a five pound bag. So how could a Fusion or Sandy Bridge CPU even come close to the performance of a dGPU?

Embedded graphics
With the recent advent of AMDs Fusion and Intels Sandy Bridge, a new level of excitement arose over the unrelenting march of Moores Law and the integration of more functionality into the CPU. Integration had actually started back in 1989, when Intel integrated the 80387 floating point processor into the CPU, with its introduction of the 80486. Over the years, other functions were integrated into the CPU, most recently that of the GPUs. But integrating small GPUs with an x86 CPU isnt really very different than integrating it with a north-bridge memory controller, known as an IGP-integrated graphics processor. Intels processors with graphics are known as embedded processor graphics, or EPGs. AMDs processors with embedded graphics are known as heterogeneous processor units, or HPUs (although AMD markets them as accelerated processing units, or APUs). The integrated graphics (IGP) market is being replaced by EPG and HPU devices, which is natural. But the key point here is that this does not have any significant impact on dGPUs. Take a look at Figure 2.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 2: Embedded processor graphics replace IGPs The integrated graphics chips appeal to inexpensive segments of the PC market, namely corporate PCs and very low-end consumer machines. Buyers in these categories are attracted by low cost, rather than graphics capability. Thus, entry-level machines use IGP. Embedded graphics processors are simply replacing integrated chipsets, and not having any impact on addin graphics boards (AIBs), which are growing nicely. Consumers who care about graphics have, and continue to, buy dGPU systems. We will look a little closer at who those consumers are.

Consumer and commercial

The PC industry is split into many categories: desktop and notebook, consumer and commercial. Commercial PCs are used in companies, from small- to medium-size businesses (SMB) to giant corporations (enterprises), as well as government and education. In the beginning the commercial segment got the PC market going, however, in the last ten years the consumer segment has overtaken it and become the driving force.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 3: Consumer vs. Commercial PC sales. Although all segments use dGPUs, the consumer and SMB segments use more of them. See Figure 4.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 4: The Consumer and SMB PCs use most of the discrete GPUs Looking at just the consumer and SMB PC segments (desktop and notebook), you can see where dGPUs are being used. These are new systems and the chart does not include after-market sales of add-in boards (AIBs).

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 5: Discrete GPU utilization in consumer & SMB PCs The data seem counter-intuitive because everyone knows that more integrated chips ship than discrete. While thats correct, a very large proportion of them, upwards of 50%, are not used, or are in servers, or non-PC systems like POS, ATMs, and CE devices. However, every dGPU in every PC is used. Expressed another way, you can see in Figure 6 the relative stability and growth of dGPUs to integrated graphics

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 6: Market share increases for discrete GPUs in Consumer PCs Although enterprise systems tend to use integrated graphics more than consumer and SMB systems do, that segment (which includes professional graphics), still uses a significant number of discrete GPUs.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 7: Discrete GPU utilization in Commercial PCs As good as integrated graphics are, and they can be very good, they cant match dGPUs raw performance for the reasons mentioned earlier. But are integrated graphics good enough?

Good enough?
Are integrated graphics good enough to run graphics-based applications? The simple answer is, yes, at least for specialized cases. That, unfortunately, causes people to leap to the conclusion that integrated graphics will surpass and replace discrete graphics as part of the natural evolution of Moores Law. This is plain wrong. There are applications that integrated parts simply cant run. Consider game for example.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Figure 8: An IGP cant run a Dx11 FPS game (Source: Nvidia) There are two important reasons why integrated graphics wont replace discrete graphics: 1. There isnt enough pixel power for graphics-intensive applications, like photo and video editing, games, and professional graphics like CAD and digital content creation. 2. Software doesnt stand still. Using PC games or CAD rendering as examples, you can demonstrate that todays state-of-the art integrated graphics can run applications based on DirectX 10 (from 2006) or OpenGL 2.0 (from 2004). For users who dont update to the latest version of software, or dont run state of the art software, an IGP-related system, or one with an older discrete GPU will do just fine. But even a $99 AIB will out-perform an integrated graphics processor. The facts speak for themselves. Those who are concerned about graphics performance will buy discrete GPU systems.

So many segments
In addition to consumer, SMB and enterprise segments, there are desktop and notebook segments. And within these are even more segments. Desktop, for example, have four subPage 10 of 15 Copyright 2011 Jon Peddie Research

An Analysis of the GPU Market segments: mainstream, performance, enthusiast, and workstation. Notebook has three or four sub-segments: workstation; enthusiast and/or performance; mainstream; and thin and light and/or netbook. In addition to the desktop and notebook platforms there are servers, which use integrated graphics. The type of graphics processors found in all these segments is shown in the following table (Figure 9). Among the three leading suppliers of graphics parts, AMD, Intel, and Nvidia, not all participate in all segments. Looking at the market opportunities for the three companies, on the basis of where they participate, you get the following view.
commercial Desktop Workstation Performance Mainstream Value Notebook Workstation Mainstream Thin & Light netbook consumer Desktop Enthusiast Performance Mainstream Value Notebook Performance/Enthusiast Mainstream Thin & Light netbook Graphics dGPU dGPU Int Int dGPU dGPU/Int Int Graphics dGPU dGPU dGPU/Int Int dGPU dGPU/Int Int AMD Y Y Y Y Y Y Y AMD Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Intel Nvidia Y Y Y Y Y Y

Y Y Intel

Nvidia Y Y Y

Y Y

Y Y

Y Y

Figure 9: Market segments and supplier participation For example, Intel does not participate in discrete graphics segments, Nvidia has never participated in the low-end, or netbook, market and AMD offers parts for all the segments. The diversity and range of products however may put a strain on the companys resources and its ability to invest in R&D. With so many segments, its easy to get confused about how one technology relates to another. And in the case of those segments where integrated and discrete GPUs are found, there is even more potential for confusion. For example, when a dGPU is in a mainstream desktop system with an integrated GPU, the integrated unit is basically put to sleep. However, in a notebook mainstream PC, either GPU may be used, depending on the work load and/or whether the notebook is plugged into the wall power socket. Page 11 of 15 Copyright 2011 Jon Peddie Research

An Analysis of the GPU Market Intel increases its integrated graphics capabilities chiefly through process technology advancements. Since they are usually half a node to a node ahead of other semiconductor fabs, they get some advantage from it. This makes for more compelling graphics for the low end of the market (entry consumer systems and corporate machines). But it isnt enough to compete with the architectural advantages and sheer number of transistors for independent GPUs. Given the development of new process nodes (going from 32nm to 28nm for example) it will take about eight years for Intel to be able to put enough graphics transistors in a CPU to be equivalent to todays dGPUs. Nvidia is the leader in discrete GPUs and feels no competition or attack from integrated parts, although there is a general misconception in the press and by some analysts that the integrated parts are somehow going to kill discretes. As Figure 5: Discrete GPU utilization in consumer & SMB PCs, page 7, shows, that is far from the truth.

GPU-compute
Although not included in the count of dGPUs, there are GPUs used in servers and workstations that dont display data but are used strictly for computing data. These are called GPU-compute processors. While the market is small, it is growing and will have a significant impact on suppliers of dGPUs.

Figure 10: GPU-compute processors have the highest growth rate Because volumes havent hit mass market levels, GPU suppliers are building GPU-compute AIBs and selling them as subsystems.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market

Market value
Embedded graphics in CPUs have an effective value of zero (dollars). Neither AMD nor Intel makes a comparable CPU without graphics to compare the value of graphics in them. However, discrete GPUs have a value. And with the average selling prices of the various dGPUs and units shipped, we can calculate the market value

Figure 11: Market value for various dGPUs Even as the recession hit in 2008, causing reduced spending, consumers split into two types: those who went for entry-level machines and those who went for better graphics performance.

Conclusion
As Samuel Clemens famously said, Reports of my death are highly exaggerated. As good as they are, embedded graphics processors will never be a replacement for a powerful discrete GPU. Discrete GPUs have, and will continue to hold, a multi-year lead over integrated graphics, and software applications and operating systems arent standing still. Therefore, the notion that the evolution of integration spells the end of discrete GPUs just isnt founded.

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An Analysis of the GPU Market Discrete GPUs will not only be with us for a long time. They will actually continue to gain market share amid mounting demand for graphics-based applications, from web viewing to editing video and photos to PC games.

This data came from Jon Peddie Research's quarterly AIB report.
Pricing and Availability The Jon Peddie Research's AIB report is available now in both electronic and hard copy editions, and can be purchased for $995 each. Included with this report is an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's AIB report is $3,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive Tech Watch (the company's bi-weekly report), and are eligible for a 10% discount. Bundle packages are also available. For information about purchasing the AIB Report, please call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.

About Jon Peddie Research Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies in a variety of fields including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie's AIB Report is a quarterly report focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for notebook and desktop computing.

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