New deputy governors for BB

Nazneen Sultana becomes the first woman for the post

Star Business Report Bangladesh Bank yesterday announced appointments of three deputy governors, with Nazneen Sultana becoming the first woman to hold the post in the history of the central bank. Abu Hena Mohd Razee Hassan and Shitangshu Kumar Sur Chowdhury are the two other deputy governors, the central bank said in a statement. Prior to the contractual appointment for a three-year term, they were the executive directors of BB. The appointment of Sultana shows consistence with its new gender policy, BB said. The new officials along with two senior advisers and the most senior deputy governor, Md Abul Quasem, will form the governor's senior management team. Nazrul Huda, Ziaul Hassan Siddiqui and Murshid Kuli were the previous deputy governors who completed their tenures in December.

Weak taka makes imports costlier, lives miserable

Sajjadur Rahman For nearly one year, the taka has been losing ground against the dollar. The exchange rate, which for six years had hovered between Tk 68 and Tk 70, came crashing down since the second half of 2011 and reached Tk 85 yesterday. Analysts said, despite the temporary reprieves to exporters and remitters, an import-dependent nation like Bangladesh has a number of challenges to cope with any time its currency sheds value. Real sector operators and consumers, who spoke with The Daily Star, said the devaluation could worsen their plight amid a soaring inflationary pressure. Not only luxury goods and fruits, Bangladesh imports a lot of essentials -- from edible oil to sugar, onion, baby food and baby care products, spices and office stationery -- to meet its demand. The prices of these goods have directly been impacted by the 16-17 percent devaluation of the local currency against the greenback and the extra cost has been passed on to the consumers. Though apparel manufacturers benefit from the devaluation, they are paying more for import of raw materials, such as cotton, yarn and chemicals. Even the government is counting more -- nearly Tk 1,500 crore more for every $1 billion worth of oil imports. The taka depreciated by 10 percent only in December (last month). This depreciation has impacted our business and the cost has been passed on to the consumers, said Nestle Bangladesh, a major player in baby milk and formula, in a statement explaining the reason for a sharp rise in its products' prices in recent months. A 400-gram Lactogen 2 (a baby milk brand), which was sold at Tk 400 several months ago, is being sold now at Tk 500 by pasting an additional price sticker on the box. A couple of months back the price of this brand was hiked to Tk 445 a tin (box) from Tk 400.

Similarly, the prices of all other brands of Nestle Bangladesh, such as Cerelac and Nan, were also increased by nearly 20 percent in the past one quarter. I cannot bear the costs rising every two months. A tin of milk goes only two days, said Shafiqul Islam, an executive in a private company. The prices of office stationery, mostly imported, also soared by nearly 20 percent in the past two months. The prices of all the items have gone up. Every time we've to explain to the customers, said Nezam Uddin, proprietor of Rifat Business Centre, a wholesaler at Karwan Bazar in the city. Also, the exchange rate devaluation is raising the cost of production in manufacturing concerns. The exchange rate has adversely affected our business, said A Matin Chowdhury, managing director of a group of textile industries. A sharp depreciation of the local currency means higher operating and production costs, he added. Chowdhury produces yarn for weavers and knitters, but he has to import cotton, which is affected by the taka devaluation. Zaid Bakht, an economist, said managing the exchange rate is the biggest challenge after inflation. It may also push poverty up, he said. Export is growing, but not enough to reduce the gap between demand and supply, said Bakht, a research director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. Expedition to the works of foreign aided projects and a cut in non-productive expenditure can give a respite, he added.

State-run telco owes regulator Tk 1,280cr

Abdullah Mamun The telecom regulator says state-owned mobile operator BTCL has failed to pay Tk 1,280.88 crore in revenue that the company was supposed to share with the government in the last three years. According to Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC), the company did not pay the money even after several reminders. BTRC Chairman Zia Ahmed said the operator, Bangladesh Telecommunications Company Ltd (BTCL), is not paying the dues that now stand at more than Tk 1,200 crore. They (BTCL) are getting interest keeping the money in several banks, Ahmed said, adding that other private operators are paying their revenue sharing money regularly. An official of BTRC said they gave reminders to the state-owned operator through letters on several occasions but it did not respond. The official said the dues are basically revenue sharing money from the income of the operator's international gateway (IGW), inter connection exchange (ICX) and international internet gateway (IIG) charges from the third quarter of 2008. The company also has to share its revenue with the government as a telecom operator. Sunil Kanti Bose, telecom secretary and also the chairman of BTCL, said: It's true that there is a huge amount of dues but the amount may differ from the regulator's claim. BTCL has paid some amount in the last few years and it will make a payment this year too, Bose said. He said the BTCL officials could not collect huge outstanding money from international careers who terminate international calls from one operator to another and work as a medium.

The BTCL board has given three months' time to its officials to collect the money, otherwise it will file case against the careers, said the chairman. Md Azizul Islam, acting managing director and also a member of planning and development of the telecom operator, said a committee has been formed to work out the exact dues. The committee will examine the company's call records and will inform the regulator of the amount it finds, Islam said. He also said BTCL has deposited Tk 700 crore to the regulator in the last three years as revenue sharing money. However, according to the regulator's claim, the total amount to be paid for three years would be Tk 1,980 crore. BTCL is trying to collect its payment from the international careers, Islam said. We are continuously reminding them about paying the money, said the acting MD.

Trade resumes at Benapole port

Our Correspondent, Benapole Export-import activities between India and Bangladesh through Benapole land port resumed yesterday after a halt of four days. Trade came to a halt on Sunday following the introduction of a car pass system as Indian truck drivers declined to enter Bangladesh with their goods-laden vehicles under the new system.

Time to focus on job-led growth: WB

Star Business Report Bangladesh should now focus on job-led growth by creating new entrepreneurship to achieve sustainable development, according to a case study on the country by the World Bank. The country has been pursuing the model of export-led growth for the last 20 years, but the time has come to accelerate growth of the private sector and entrepreneurship that will create a vibrant job market and lead to better productivity, it said. Job creation will help raise living standards, increase aggregate productivity and enhance social cohesion, according to draft World Development Report 2013: Jobs, which will come out next year and highlight Bangladesh's success stories. The report will contain the case study and demonstrate further measures the country should take to run on the track of sustainable development. BIDS and BRAC yesterday co-organised a consultative workshops to share the Bangladesh case study at BRAC Centre in Dhaka. Bangladesh has turned around in the past two decades from 'test case' to 'success case' among the least developed countries, said Binayak Sen, a member of the Bangladesh Country Study Team. He said the country has achieved successive growth over the last three decades thanks to the contribution of agriculture, remittance and export earnings. This strategy had worked till 2010. But, it is time to focus on creating jobs in urban areas as 35 percent people now live in the area, which was 12 percent in 1974, Sen said.

We are not being able to give to people the jobs that match their academic qualifications and training, the researcher said. The country's young workforce is educated and wants to pursue careers in decent jobs. "Sometimes, they choose to remain jobless until they get a desired job, which is a huge economic loss, Sen said. "It will be a huge challenge if the skilled and young workforce does not get their desired jobs. It will create frustration among them, he said. "We have to expand growth of the private sector for creating jobs." Jobless growth has direct adverse implications for the living standards of those whose main asset is labour power or skill, said the study. It said the country should focus on technological progress and productivity improvements to accelerate the growth momentum. The study said inadequate job creation or a supply demand mismatch can be detrimental to social cohesion, which in turn can reduce future growth. Several shifts in the composition of output have taken place between 1990 and 2010. It has shifted from farm to nonfarm, from agriculture to industry, from low-value added products and informal service to high-value-added and formal services, and from domestic market to export markets. It said the industry's share has increased from around 20 percent to 30 percent, while the share of formal services -financial, wholesale trade and information technology -- has grown to 50 percent during the period. Export's share in GDP has increased to 18 percent in 2006-07 from 7 percent in 1977-82 with more than 90 percent being manufactured exports. Remittance from abroad has increased to around 10 percent of GDP in the last fiscal year, up from 5 percent in the late 1990s; aid inflow's share in GDP came below 2 percent compared to 10 percent in 1981-82, according to the study Mahabub Hossain, executive director of BRAC and a member of the Bangladesh Country Study Team, chaired the consultation session with policymakers and academics. The draft study is expected to be finalised by July and will be released next year.

World faces a 600-million jobs challenge: ILO

Star Business Report The world faces a daunting challenge of creating 600 million productive jobs by the next decade to generate sustainable growth and maintain social cohesion, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). After three years of continuous crisis conditions in global labour markets and against the prospect of a further deterioration of economic activity, there is a backlog of global unemployment of 200 million, says the ILO in its annual report. The report -- Global Employment Trends 2012: Preventing a deeper jobs crisis -- was released globally yesterday. The report said more than 400 million new jobs will be needed over the next decade to absorb the estimated 40 million growth of the labour force each year. The UN agency also said the world faces the additional challenge of creating decent jobs for the estimated 900 million workers living with their families below the $2 a day poverty line, mostly in developing countries. Despite strenuous government efforts, the jobs crisis continues unabated, with one in three workers worldwide -- or an estimated 1.1 billion people -- either unemployed or living in poverty," said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia.

What is needed is that job creation in the real economy must become our number one priority. The report said the recovery that started in 2009 has been short-lived and that there are still 27 million more unemployed workers than at the start of the crisis. The fact that economies are not generating enough employment is reflected in the employment-to-population ratio, which suffered the largest decline on record between 2007 (61.2 percent) and 2010 (60.2 percent). At the same time, there are nearly 29 million fewer people in the labour force now than would be expected based on pre-crisis trends. If these discouraged workers were counted as unemployed, then global unemployment would swell from the current 197 million to 225 million, and the unemployment rate would rise from 6 percent to 6.9 percent. The report painted three scenarios for the employment situation in the future. The baseline projection shows an additional 3 million unemployed for 2012, rising to 206 million by 2016. If global growth rates fall below 2 percent, then unemployment would rise to 204 million in 2012. In a more benign scenario, assuming a quick resolution of the euro debt crisis, global unemployment would be around 1 million lower in 2012, said the report. Young people continue to be among the hardest hit by the jobs crisis. Judging by the present course, the report said, there is little hope for a substantial improvement in their near-term employment prospects. The ILO report said 74.8 million youth aged 15-24 were unemployed in 2011, an increase of more than 4 million since 2007. It adds that globally, young people are nearly three times as likely as adults to be unemployed. The global youth unemployment rate, at 12.7 percent, remains a full percentage point above the pre-crisis level.

StanChart to organise 'lifestyle' fair

Md Mahiul Islam, general manager of marketing and service quality for consumer banking of Standard Chartered Bank; Sandeep Bose, head of consumer banking; Tareq Reaz, general manager for retail lending products; and Salim Akhter Khan, chairman and president of Asset Developments & Holdings Ltd; attend a press meet to announce an event, Showcasing Lifestyle, at Sonargaon Hotel in Dhaka yesterday. The three-day show organised by StanChart starts on Friday. Photo: StanchartStar Business Report

Twenty-five companies will exhibit high-end products and services at a three-day event from January 27, to be organised by Standard Chartered Bangladesh, officials said yesterday. The event, Showcasing Lifestyle, to be held at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre in Dhaka, is being held for the second time. The fair ends on January 29. Through this event we will try to create a platform that brings together the utmost in prestige and luxury under one roof," Sandeep Bose, head of consumer banking of Standard Chartered Bank, told reporters at Sonargaon Hotel. It will be a forum that captures the lifestyle of Bangladesh. Bose said exhibitors would include top brands of various sectors such as real estate, automobile, furniture, electronics and other luxurious lifestyle items, which have proven expertise in producing top quality products for their valued customers.

The bank's customers will get 50 percent processing fee waiver for personal loans and 0.25 percent waiver for home loans, he said, adding that their partner business organisations would also offer exclusive discounts on the occasion. The event is co-sponsored by Asset Development & Holdings Ltd, Amin Mohammad Foundation, Navana Real Estate, and partnered by Assurance Developments, Trust Alliance Technology and Urban Design & Development. Airtel is the telecom partner. The event will provide a unique opportunity for our business partners to exhibit their exclusive products and services just to match the lifestyle needs," said Tareq Reaz Khan, general manager, retail banking, products and wealth management, Standard Chartered Bank. He said SCB's 2.8 lakh customers in Bangladesh including 1.3 lakh credit card holders will enjoy a free entry to the event provided they carry their cards or other documents to prove their association with the bank. Clients of the participating orgnisations will enjoy the same privilege. Entry fee for general visitors is Tk 200, he said. Salim Akhter Khan, chairman and president of Asset Developments and Holdings, said the first ever Showcase Lifestyle event organised last year was a huge success. "We hope there will be more visitors this year." The event opens to select visitors from January 27 to 28 from 10:00am to 10:00pm and from 2:00pm to 10:00pm on January 29. Md Mahiul Islam, general manager, marketing and service quality, consumer banking of SCB also spoke.

Chittagong a hub for business: Canadian HC

CU Correspondent Chittagong is the centre of Canadian business in Bangladesh because of its geographic location and economic context, Canadian high commissioner said yesterday. The port city is a suitable place for business and investment, Heather Cruden said at a meeting with the President of Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI), Mahbubul Alam. Business transactions between Bangladesh and Canada exceeded $1 billion in 10 months of 2010-11 fiscal year, said Cruden. Alam said the trade and business relations between the two countries have taken off splendidly in the last few years and there remains a lot of potential and opportunities to be utilised. Directors of the chamber and senior officials of the Canadian High Commission were also present.

Bearing maker SKF to open office in Bangladesh

Star Business Report A leading bearing manufacturer SKF will set up its office in Bangladesh this year to strengthen its presence in the local market, said its regional head for Bangladesh recently. The country office will be followed by investment and large scale spending for corporate social responsibility, said Tanmay Mohapatra. He spoke at a seminar in the city where more than 200 engineers from 75 leading industries in the country took part, according to a statement of SKF. Gothenburg-based SKF Group is a leading global supplier of products, solutions and services within rolling bearings, seals, mechatronics, services and lubrication systems.

Local factory owners face difficulties in using bearings due to excessive use of counterfeit products, said Harun-orRashid, director of Micro Tools and Machineries, sole distributor of SKF bearings. SKF accounts for 60 percent of the total bearing consumption in the local market, said M Ziaul Hasan Siddique, technical manager of Skeftech Pvt Ltd. But in real sense, the local market share of the company would be around 20 percent as counterfeit bearings with SKF logo cater the rest, he said.

Economic pain exposes policy failure

Maruf H Khan Noorpuri

Over the past six months we have witnessed a dramatic and accelerating deterioration of economic conditions in Bangladesh. This has been severely aggravated by poorly calculated fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange policies. This is no longer a matter of opinion but a painful fact for economic agents (employers, employees, exporters, importers, entrepreneurs and so forth) of all description. Fiscal policy execution, as is now well-known, has been aggressively creating a widening budget deficit. In a country that is devoid of a proper government bond market it has succeeded in squeezing liquidity and creating a rising public debt burden. It would be tolerable if the borrowed funds from the economy were appropriately invested in infrastructure. There is unfortunately limited evidence for this. The funds seem to be applied to support an expanding government and a fuel bill caused by government tardiness in removing fuel subsidies. It is fair to note, with regard to the latter, that the government has commenced, albeit rather late, to remove fuel subsidies that this country cannot and should not support. Foreign exchange policy has been poorly managed for quite some time. The designated guardians of the currency have failed to instill policy that would inspire confidence in the country. The treasury bill market for instance is closed to foreign investors on the pretext (according to some Bangladesh Bank officials) that foreigners would add to the volatility. Readers please note that in the past year the stockmarket was down by nearly 50 percent and the Bangladesh taka by 20 percent without the assistance of the foreign investors. A lack of understanding of the global market and inadequate anticipation of foreign exchange reserve decline has clearly contributed to this dismal outcome. This decline in the currency is serious as it is an unambiguous indictment of existing macroeconomic policy. It is nothing short of destroying the wealth of the country, whatever there was. It crushes the country's purchasing power, discourages foreign capital investment and of course increases the cost of imports. Exports cannot be goosed up by just dropping the price. Beggar-thy-neighbour policies have been shown through multiple examples to be an unmitigated failure. China today, Japan before, Germany and Switzerland still, have strong currencies that have corresponded with strong exports. A strong taka should be at the core of policy. Monetary policy execution adds violently to the toxic mix that the Bangladesh economy has had to endure in the recent months. It is important to look back at the track record of the Bangladesh Bank. In 2009 and 2010, monetary policy was far too lenient as money expansion led to unsustainable events, namely the sharp appreciation of the stockmarket in those two years and rapid credit growth. This was made worse by wholly inappropriate margin policy for which the finance ministry and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were also responsible. Headline inflation did increase in early 2011 much of that however was food and energy. Monetary policy was rightly tightened in late 2010. However, in the recent months one would have to be blind not to note the sharp deceleration in economic growth. Exports are falling, real estate prices are weaker, consumer durables are softer and jobs are being lost. Credit growth has fallen sharply, admittedly from unsustainable levels (consequence of poor policy in 2009). Inflation is rightly a target, but the wrong focus measure will cause a false reaction, and make any healthy economy unbearably sick. In most countries the focus on inflation is core' inflation. This usually refers to inflation excluding food and energy. Interest rates are a blunt instrument, and unless one is delusional, interest rates do not have an effect

on the change in food and energy prices. In the past year in the global markets, soybean oil is down 20 percent, wheat is down 30 percent, sugar is down 33 percent and rice is unchanged from a year ago but down 25 percent from the late summer peak. The rate of change referred to here is based on the USD price change on the Chicago Board of Trade Futures Exchange. Oil prices are up but adjusting taka interest rates cannot and will not change the price dynamic, just as it did not with regard to the food items mentioned. We believe the core inflation is falling and is probably below 5 percent and average real rates are therefore 6 to 10 percent (depending on the term) on the real economy. This rate burden coupled with the sharp domestic and global economic decline (factually based) makes the recent additional monetary tightening not only absurd but suggestive of severe weaknesses in the monetary policy operator's comprehension of economic and financial reality. Bangladesh's GDP in real USD terms is probably currently only growing at 3 to 4 percent and possibly less. No matter who you are in Bangladesh, this is a disastrous situation. The much stated objective of the finance ministry for 7 percent growth is not going to be achieved with the current policy mix as described, in particular given the recent decline in the taka exchange rate. Bangladesh has a dynamic and able private sector; unfortunately the policymakers are handicapping the entrepreneurs of Bangladesh in an untenable manner. We actually believe that Bangladesh's potential growth rate is well north of 7 percent and achievable, however it requires a radical change of course by those currently responsible for policy design and implementation. The policymakers should be commended for working to remove fuel subsidies, the removal of the commercial bank's lending cap and the stated (but yet to be official) removal of capital gains tax. However, much more needs to be done urgently. Interest rates need to be cut, taxes in the corporate sector need to be slashed, foreign capital enabled in all maturities of the government debt market and not least the size of government needs to be cut aggressively. If these measures are not taken then Bangladesh will inevitably lose its competitive edge and capital will not enter the country. Capital that is critical to create jobs, lift incomes and drive entrepreneurship. South Asia and Southeast Asia is full of opportunity for international capital but Bangladesh is not at an obvious investment destination unless the policy mix is altered rapidly. Far too much has been squandered recently and the Bangladesh economy cannot afford the government's current policy mix to continue.
The writer is the chief executive officer of Timurid Investment Management Company (TIMCO).

Guide women entrepreneurs to new heights

President of Chittagong Women Chamber and Commerce and Industry says women need to take part in industrialisation

Monowara Hakim Ali

Md Fazlur Rahman The government should extend assistance to women entrepreneurs not only to create jobs across the country but also to boost their contribution to the economy, a leading entrepreneur said. "Entrepreneurship can empower women who constitute about half of the country's total population," said Monowara Hakim Ali, president of Chittagong Women Chamber and Commerce and Industry. She said women entrepreneurs in Bangladesh are no longer small entrepreneurs. "They have come a long way. We consider them as part of our small and medium enterprises sector. Now is the time to guide them to new heights."

Monowara, vice-chairperson of Intraco Group, which has interests in hotels, real estate, shipping, textiles, energy, automobiles, travel, tourism, fishing, fertiliser, and agriculture, singled out problems in marketing and access to finance as the major impediments that women entrepreneurs face today. "It will be tough for them to grow if they do not get easy credit at low interest rates," she said in an interview in Dhaka recently. "It is true that banks are providing loans, but they are giving loans as working capital, not as project loans. Besides, financial institutions are more interested in giving loans to entrepreneurs who are already established." Monowara said banks should give them project loans collateral-free and extend the grace period. "At present, banks do not give any grace period and borrowers have to start paying back the loans the month following loan sanction. As a result, women entrepreneurs do not dare to take bank loans. Normally, an entrepreneur requires at least three months for giving a business a foothold." She said banks have to change their lending model so that women borrowers can repay loans after getting a grip on their business. "We have to create new entrepreneurs. To do so, we have to give them encouragement and extend assistance on various fronts." Monowara said banks are now more interested in lending to businesses headed by women thanks mainly to some important steps taken by Atiur Rahman, governor of the central bank. "Under his leadership, the central bank has organised road-shows and fairs across the country to motivate banks to lend more to the cash-strapped entrepreneurs and to build awareness among them." "Now women entrepreneurs are more confident." She also said the government should set up sales-centres at district levels to help grassroots entrepreneurs sell their products. "There are many entrepreneurs who are doing fine at rural levels. But many of them do not have the ability to set up stores in their localities or showcase or sell their products in Dhaka. If we can create markets for them, it will help a lot." The entrepreneur thanked the government, particularly Dr Shirin Sharmin Chowdhury, state minister for women and children affairs, for taking steps in setting up Joyita, a centre for marketing the products of small women entrepreneurs at Rapa Plaza in Dhaka. The platform is part of government programmes aimed at strengthening different business initiatives of level women entrepreneurs at grassroots levels. It plans to encourage women entrepreneurs to boost their business initiatives. Monowara urged authorities to set up more such centres not only in Dhaka but also in rural areas. "As a result, the number of entrepreneurs can increase, helping the country create huge employment scopes and develop economically." She said women entrepreneurs in Bangladesh work amid an army of limitations. Currently, most of them produce products at home. "If the government sets up special industrial parks for them, then many will be able to work under a same platform." She said women should become active in industrialisation and be given tax holidays for a certain period so that the young entrepreneurs can establish a strong position, she said. Monowara said the women's chamber in Chittagong is helping women entrepreneurs in the region through training, workshops, awareness-building programmes and fairs. "We have been organising month-long fairs for SME women entrepreneurs for the last five years. The effort has been very successful in mobilising them and creating a network." She said handicrafts produced by the entrepreneurs have demand at home and abroad. "They need incentives for exports."

Monowara, the first elected women director of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said the association is taking a series of steps to support women entrepreneurs. "We are providing them with training to build their capacity so that their confidence level grows. We are also organising awareness building programmes," she said.

Eurozone scrambles to fix Greece, as IMF ups pressure

Afp, Brussels European finance ministers scrambled Monday to hammer out a massive debt writedown deal for Greece as the IMF's chief called for radical eurozone decisions to avoid a 1930s-style crisis. As the Greek government and its bank creditors struggled to find a compromise to avoid a messy default, ministers gathering in Brussels were expected to finalise a pact to toughen eurozone budget discipline. But a planned debate on rescue funding would have to overcome the view of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who maintained that while Europe is "not yet in the clear," governments are breathing easier on signs that "the markets are slowly regaining confidence." Schaeuble could take succour from rising European stock markets and gains for the euro against the dollar in the runup to the talks. Financial markets have been relatively calm despite Standard & Poor's recent decision to strip France of its Triple-A ratings and downgrade a host of eurozone countries. Greece and its private lenders are seeking common ground to erase 100 billion euros ($129 billion) from a 350-billioneuro debt mountain. However, the chief negotiator for the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the group representing private lenders, said that banks had offered the maximum they were willing to lose in a bond-swap deal. A planned second bailout for the government in Athens hinges on the outcome of these negotiations, but the lenders' position put the onus on the ministers to see if they could budge on parameters agreed by European leaders at an October summit. "What I am confident of is that our offer that we delivered to the prime minister is the maximum consistent with the voluntary PSI (private-sector involvement) deals," Charles Dallara said after the two sides fell short of a hoped-for weekend agreement. A deal now rests with the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank -- which have provided Athens with bailout funds and largely control its economic policy, Dallara added. It is "largely in the hands of the official sector to choose the path," added Dallara, "a voluntary debt exchange or a default."