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Name Organization Present Position Telephone E-Mail Address Yu-Chi Weng Solid Waste Management Okayama University Research Center,
Education: Ph.D., Kyoto University (2009) M.S., National Cheng-Kung University (2001) B.S., National Cheng-Kung University (1999) Main Education/ Experience: Experience Specially Appointed Assistant Professor, Okayama University (2009-) Assistant Research Fellow, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (2004-2005) Assistant Engineer, Taipei City Government (2003-2004) Selected Publication: -Book Weng, Y. C., Towards Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management: An Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling Approach with A Case Study of Taiwan, LAP Lambert Academic Publishing AG & Co. KG., ISBN 978-3838352695, May, 2010. -Journal Papers Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2010. Econometric Modeling of the Consumer Behavior and Its Influence on Municipal Solid Waste Discards: A Taiwan Case Study. Journal of Environmental Science for Sustainable Society. In Press. Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2010. An Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Discards in Taiwan Based on Consumption Expenditure and Selected Policy Interventions. Waste Management & Research 28 (3), 245-255. Publications / Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2009. Municipal Solid Waste Ongoing Management and Short-term Projection of the Waste Discard Levels in research Taiwan. Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management 11 (2), 110-122. projects Weng, Y. C., Fujiwara, T., Matsuoka, Y., 2009. Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emission from the Treatment and Disposal of Municipal Solid Waste and Its Policy Implication: A Taiwan Case Study. Journal of Global Environment Engineering 14, 47-55. Weng, Y. C., Chang, N. B., Lee, T. Y., 2008. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Ground-Level Ozone Dynamics in Southern Taiwan. Journal of Environmental Management 87 (3), 405-414. Ongoing Research Project: Evaluation of the Policy effect of the Pay-as-You-Throw (PAST) systems on Household Solid Waste Reduction and the Potential Environmental Impacts -A Case Study in Taiwan, Practical Research and Education of Solid Waste Management Based on the Partnership Among Universities and Governments in Asia and Pacific Countries, sponsored by the MEXT, Japan.
Expert Profile
Name Organization Prof. Takeshi Fujiwara Solid Waste Management Okayama University Research Center, Photo
E-Mail Address takeshi@cc.okayama-u.ac.jp Ph.D. (Engineering) Kyoto University M.S. (Engineering) Kyoto University Main Education/ B.E. (Engineering) Kyoto University Experience Solid Waste Management and Engineering Environmental Systems Engineering Selected Publication Jinmei Yang, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Wei Wang, Application of a MSW Generation Estimation Model: A Comparison of Generation Property among Metropolitan Cities in China, Journal of Global Environment Engineering, Journal of Global Environment Engineering, Vol. 15, 1-14, 2010. Yu-Chi Weng, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka, An Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Discards in Taiwan Based on Consumption Expenditure and Policy Interventions, Waste Management & Research Vol. 28, No. 3, 245-255, 2010. Yu-Chi Weng, Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka, Municipal Solid Waste Management and Short-term Projection of the Waste Discard in Taiwan, Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Vol.11, No. 2, 110-122, 2009 Takeshi Fujiwara and Yusuke Kusakabe, Study on Estimation of Waste Selected Transportation Distance and Optimization of Transfer Station Location by Publications / Using GIS, Selected Papers of Environmental Systems Research, Vol.36, Ongoing research 2008 projects Takeshi Fujiwara, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Yuko Kanamori, Development of Estimation model for Waste Generation Considering Structure of Household Expenditure, Selected Papers of Environmental Systems Research, Vol.35, 471-480, 2007. Research topics Development of the Theories of Solid Waste Management for a Sound Material-Cycle Society Projection of Solid Waste Generation Based on Consumption-Waste Behavior Models Optimization of Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Systems Analysis and Management of Residents' Recycling Activities Establishment of Regional Solid Waste Management Systems Development of Efficient Solid Waste Treatment Technologies Promotion of International Solid Waste Management
A Mid-term Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Sector in Taiwan Regarding 3Rs Policy Effects Yu-Chi Weng1,* and Takeshi Fujiwara1
1. Solid Waste Management Research Center, Okayama University, Japan *Corresponding Author. Tel: +81 86 251 8994, +81 86 251 8994 E-mail: weng@cc.okayama-u.ac.jp
Abstract: The increasing municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and the options of appropriate MSW treatment technologies are particularly highlighted regarding its worldwide impact on the global warming. It is imperative to assess the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the design of MSW treatment and disposal systems. Coupling the MSW discards projection model and revised GHG emission inventory both established in the authors research, this study aims at performing a mid-term future projection by scenario analysis up to 2021, considering the changes of socio-economic situation and the policy effects of the implemented 3Rs programs. The analysis results indicate that plastic waste, paper waste and food waste would contribute the largest share of GHG emission during the MSW treatment and disposal processes. Thus recycling and reducing activities on the abovementioned waste streams should be enhanced in the context of preventing global warming. Keywords: Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal; Greenhouse Gas E mission; Policy Effects; Lifestyle Changes. Presentation: Oral
A Mid-term Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Sector in Taiwan Regarding 3Rs Policy Effects
Outline
Research Background Research Purpose Model Framework Midterm Projection by Scenario Analysis Major Achievement and Policy Implications
Research Background
Mass production, mass consumption, and mass discards seems to be the major characteristic of the modern societies all over the world. Unsustainable patterns of production and consumption are important driving factors of environmental problems, especially the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation as well as the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. An integrated evaluation on MSW management systems is essential regarding the prevention of global warming.
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Research Purpose
The aim of this study is to conduct quantitative models for MSW management system regarding the lifestyle changes, the consumer behavior, and the policy effects, simultaneously.
Objective
Develop a quantitative methodology to modeling the MSW management system in terms of MSW discards and the corresponding GHG emission with waste treatment and disposal. Propose adequate strategies for the MSW management system up to 2021 years ahead.
Research Framework
Macro-economic Environment Econometric Modeling Consumption Peoples Lifestyle
Life-cycle Assessment using IPCC 2006 guideline GHG Emissions within MSW Treatment / Disposal
Layer 4 MSW Discard Model (Simultaneous Equation System) Food waste Paper waste Plastic waste Metal waste
Layer 5 Intermediate MSW Treatment & Final Disposal MSW Capacity Evaluation Model
GHG emission
Historical Trend of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Generation, Discards and Recycling Rate in Taiwan: 1990-2008
MSW = HSW + General ISW (mainly from commercial and institutional sectors) MSW Generation = MSW Discards + Recycled Materials
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 MSW generation rate MSW discard rate Recycling rate 20 10 0 60 1,600
50 40 30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Zero-disposal
Zero-waste
8
Per capita gross domestic product The unemployment rate in the labor force in the year t. The portion of the aging population (over 65 years) in the overall population The saving rate in the disposable expenditure in the year t. Dummy variable for the Resource Recycling Four-in-One Project action; before 1997, the value is zero and 1 otherwise. Dummy variable for the Restrictions on the Use of Plastic Bags action; before 2001, the value is zero and 1 otherwise. Dummy variable for the Mandatory Household Classification and Food Waste Recycling action imposed in Taipei city; before 2003, the value is zero and 1 otherwise. The portion of MSW discards treated by incinerators in the year t, a continuous variable. The recycled portion of MSW generation in the year t, a continuous variable.
Dum1 Dum2
none
none
% %
10
GDP growth rate (%) Unemployed rate (%) 6.59 4.52 -2.17 2.49 5.17 3.72 2.60 0.96
12
Increase progressively based on the nation projection All the three policy measures are activated in the scenarios. Increase progressively from 42.5 (2009) to 50 (2011), and further to 60 during 2012 to 2021. 94.58 (2008 level) 13
a. Model simulation
b. Future projection
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Unit: %
Ex-post forecasting
Backcasting
Model development
Future projection
The per capita total MSW discards seems to increase significantly due to the scenarios with the optimistic economic development and conservative impacts of policy interventions.
16
(c)Food waste
17
18
The relationships among the variables may change in the future. Potential important policy variables (policy intervention incidents) may exist in the future.
19
Layer 4 MSW Discard Model (Simultaneous Equation System) Food waste Paper waste Plastic waste Metal waste
Layer 5 Intermediate MSW Treatment & Final Disposal MSW Capacity Evaluation Model
GHG emission
20
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: TEPA, 2010
21
DDOCmdecom pi ,t = DDOCma i ,t 1 1 e
DDOCmai,t-1 is its lag term (Gg/yr);
where DDOCmai,t denotes DDOCmi,t accumulated in the landfill sites at the end of year t (Gg/yr) for waste stream i ; DDOCmdi,t is DDOCmi,t deposited into the landfill sites in year t (Gg/yr); DDOCmdecompi,t is the amount of DDOCmi,t decomposed within the year t (Gg/yr);
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GHG Emission within MSW Landfilling (II) The methane emission from each waste stream is calculated by
LMEG i ,t = DDOCmdecom pi ,t F 16 / 12
where LMEGs,t is the amount of methane generated from decomposable matters from waste stream i within year t (Gg/yr); F is the fraction of methane, by volume, in generated landfill gas (fraction); 16/12 denotes the molecular weight ratio CH4/C (ratio).
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Parameter Setting of the Reaction Constant () of the First-Order Decaying Model for Methane Emission in the Landfilling
0.2
DDOCm-decompT =0.20 DDOCmdecompt = 0.20 DDOCm-decompT =0.15 DDOCmdecompt = 0.15 DDOCm-decompT =0.13 DDOCmdecompt = 0.13
Year of placement
Reaction constant () (yr-1) 0.2 Half-life time * Duration required to decay 99% of unit weight of waste* 4 24 0.15 5 31 0.13 6 36 0.1 7 46 0.05 14 92 25
where IC2OEs,t is the CO2 emission in the year t from the incineration process of MSW (Gg/yr);
Methane Emission
s ,t = WGinci ,t EFM 10 6
N2O Emission
IN 2 OE s ,t = WG inci ,t EFN 10 6
where IMEEs,t is the methane emission by incineration in the year t (Gg/yr); WGinci,t is the amount of MSW incinerated in the year t (Gg/yr), on a wet basis; EFM is aggregate methane emission coefficient (kgCH4/Gg-waste); 10-6 is the conversion factor from kilogram to gigagram.
where IN2OEs,t is the N2O emission by incineration in the year t (Gg/yr); WGinci,t is the amount of MSW incinerated in the year t (Gg/yr), on a wet basis; EFN is aggregate N2O emission coefficient (kg-N2O /Gg-waste); 10-6 is the conversion factor from kilogram to gigagram.
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where BMEEt is the methane emission in the year t from the biological treatment process of MSW (Gg/yr); Mi,t is the amount organic waste treated by technology option i (Gg/yr); EFi is the emission factor for technology option i (g CH4/ kg waste treated); Rt is amount of methane recovered in the year t during the process (Gg/yr).
N2O Emission
i
BN 2 OE t = ( M i,t EFi ) 10 3
where BN2OEt is the N2O emission in the year t from the biological treatment processes of MSW (Gg/yr); Mi,t is the amount organic waste treated by technology option i (Gg/yr); EFi is the emission factor for technology option i (g N2O / kg waste treated).
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Typical Values of Parameters Recommended by IPCC in the Estimation for Incineration Process of MSW (IPCC, 2006)
Parameter CFi Paper Plastics Food Textile Leather Garden EFM Value 0.46 (0.42-0.50) 0.75 (0.67-0.85) 0.38* (0.20-0.50) 0.50 (0.25-0.50) 0.67 (0.67) 0.49 (0.45-0.55) 0.2 Parameter FCFi Paper Plastics Food Textile Leather Garden EFN Value 0.01 (0-0.05) 1 (0.95-1) -0.2 (0-0.50) 0.2 (0.2) 0 47
Note: a. *: recommended value from Yang et al., 2004 and is the same as the default value of IPCC 2006 guideline. b. Values in the parentheses represent the rational ranges of the parameter. c. EFM and EFN use the value for the stocker-type incinerator.
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Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of the Landfilling of MSW Discards in Taiwan: 1992-2004
103 tonne s/ yr
9000
Gg CO2 / yr
10,000
landfill incineration
8,000
6,000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
100%
4,000
80%
2,000
60%
40%
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
20%
Paper
Food
Garden
Textile
Leather
0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Paper
Food
Garden
Textile
Leather
29
Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of the Incineration of MSW Discards in Taiwan: 1992-2004
Gg CO2 / yr
2,000
100%
Miscellaneous
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
1,500
1,000
100%
500
80% 60%
0 1992 1994 Paper 1996 1998 2000 Textile 2002 Leather 2004
40% 20% 0% 1992 1994 Paper 1996 1998 2000 Textile 2002 Leather 2004 Plastics
Plastics
30
Gg CO2 / yr
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1992
Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of MSW Treatment and Disposal System in Taiwan: 1992-2004
103 tonnes / yr
Composting Incineration Landfilling
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
77.49% 0.03%
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Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the Landfilling of MSW Discards: 2005-2021
Gg CO2 eq. / yr
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2005 2009 2013 2017
7,000 6,000
7,000 6,000
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
2009
2013
2017
2021
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
Food
Garden
Textile
Leather
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Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the Incineration of MSW Discards: 2005-2021
Gg CO2 eq. / yr
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
6,000
7,000
Scenario A C
Scenario B
Scenario
2,000 1,000 0 2005 2009 Paper 2013 Plastics 2017 Textile Leather
2,000 1,000 0
2021
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
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Future Projection of Annual GHG Emission from the Composting of Recycled Food Waste: 2009-2021
It is assumed that the composted food waste is increased by 6% per year.
Gg CO2 eq. / yr
Future Projection
34
Annual CO2 (e.q.) Emission of MSW Treatment and Disposal System in Taiwan: 1992-2021
Gg CO2 / yr
35
36
37
Future Improvements
The current estimation of the GHG emission may be overestimated while methane recovery is excluded herein. GHG emissions from treatment of municipal waste waters could be considered further. GHG emissions from MSW collection and transportation processes should be considered. GHG emissions from the MSW recycling and reutilization activities might be considered. The uncertainty of the parameters should be evaluated.
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