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MARIST COLLEGE ASHGROVE

The Lack of Predictability


Maths C

Tim Wengenmayr
10/26/2011




This report will investigate the difference in deterministic systems, where future values can be
predicted, and chaotic systems, where small changes in initial values can completely alter the
predictability of the outcome.
Part 1 Iteration (the act of repeating a process usually with the
aim of approaching a desired goal or target or result)
Q1. where x = 5
As this function is iterated with an initial value
of 5, the x value approaches 1. Because the
values of x become closer to 1, the system could
be said to be deterministic.

Q2. Initial values of: 10 0.1 123,456 and 0.123456 were input
into the function
No. of
Iterations
of
where
x = 10




Value of x
No. of
Iterations
of
where
x = 0.1




Value of x
No. of
Iterations
of
where
x =
123,456




Value of x
No. of
Iterations
of
where
x =
0.123456



Value of x
1 2.236067977 1 0.3162277660 1 351.3630601 1 0.3513641829
5 1.051581198 5 0.9305720409 5 1.442479854 5 0.9367201079
10 1.001572953 10 0.9977539080 10 1.011514656 10 0.9979592492
1 1 1 1

As was similar with question 1, no matter whether the initial input is < or > than 1, the x
value when iterated always approaches positive 1. Because the values of positive x become
closer to 1 no matter the initial value, the system is deterministic.

Q3. where x = 1.57


As can be observed from the table on the left, as the
number of iterates reached infinity, the orbit of 1.57 tends
to 0, therefore being a deterministic system.


No. of Iterations Value of x
1 2.236067977
5 1.051581198
10 1.001572953
1
No. of Iterations Value of x
1 0.9999996829
5 0.6275717668
10 0.4813293269
20 0.3587486766
50 0.2361013726
0
Q4.

a) List of the first 15 iterations for when x = 0 in the function F(x) = x + 1




The results show that the number of iterations match the
value of the x after that iteration
e.g. After 7 iterations, the value = 7.




b) List of the first 15 iterations for when x = 0 in the function F(x) = x
2
2



The results show that at and following the second iteration,
the value of x will remain 2.
Therefore, both of these functions are also deterministic
systems, as the values can be easily predicted.






No. of Iterations Value of x
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
No. of Iterations Value of x
1 -2
2 2
3 2
4 2
5 2
6 2
7 2
8 2
9 2
10 2
11 2
12 2
13 2
14 2
15 2
Q5. Iterating the function F(x) = x
3


I. If x = 0, then clearly, F(0) = 0, so F
2
(0) = 0, F
3
(0) = 0,
F
n
x if x
II. If x > 0, then F(+x) = +x
3
, so F
2
(+x) = +x
3
, F
3
(+x) = +x
3
Example when x = 1.2




F
n
x if x > 0



III. If x < 0, then F(-x) = (-x)
3
, so F
2
(-x) = (-x
3
), F
3
(-x) = (-x
3
) Example when x = -1.2


F
n
x if x < 0
*Note: These definitions are true except for when
the initial value = 1 or -1, as the values will remain
the same after infinite iterations: 1
3
= 1, and (-1)
3

= -1
Furthermore, when -1 < x < 1 and not equal to 0,
the values become smaller approach 0.

Therefore:
1. F
n
x if x
2. F
n
x if x > 0
3. F
n
x if x < 0
4. F
n
x if x
5. F
n
x if x
6. F
n
x if x
7. F
n
x if -1 < x < 1 where x 0
No. of Iterations of

where
x = 1.2

Value of x
1 1.728
2 5.159780352
3 137.370552
4 259274.154
5 1.741978496 x 10
19


No. of Iterations of

where
x = -1.2

Value of x
1 -1.728
2 -5.159780352
3 -137.370552
4 -259274.154
5 -1.741978496 x 10
19

-
Q6. Iterating the cosine function

In order to graphically represent the result of iterating the F(x) = cos(x) function, the function was
entered into Winfeed, a mathematical graphing program, including y=x and y=cos(x). The first graph
below was iterated with an initial x value of 0. The spiral begins when x = cos(0), meaning y =1.
Because of the nature of iteration, the previous y value is equal to the subsequent x value. For
example, as when x = cos(0), y =1, the subsequent values would be x = cos(1), y = 0.5403
As can be observed, this process continues as more iterations take place. After consecutive
iterations, it becomes obvious that the nature of iterating the cos(x) function value approaches the
intersection of y = x and y = cos(x), being approximately 0.7390851332.










In order to prove the deterministic nature of the cos(x) function of a fixed point orbit of 0.73908,
other initial values were iterated in a similar way as shown below. As both of these orbits converge
to the same point as when the initial value is = 0: Fx cosx is a ueteiministic function








Iteration of F(x) = cos(x) where initial
value = 0
Initial value of 1
Initial value of -1
Q7. Part 2 An Application from Ecology
In regards to chaos and chaotic theory, one very simple system known as the logistic model shows
the nature of initial values and their impact when iterated. The basic form of the logistic function:

is used in many different applications in predicting future outcomes, such as


economics, meteorology and biological factors such as the population of certain a species. Although
seeming as a reasonably simple quadratic equation, when the value of the constant k is varied, the
orbit of the function begins to change dramatically. The varying outcomes of different k values from
0.5 4 can be observed below from the bifurcation of the logistic function, as graphed by the
program Winfeed:

In order to prove the outcomes of k as expressed in this graph, values of k were input into the
logistic function between 0.5 and 4. After 40 iterations the general results were tabulated.
Note*: For ease of reading, only one x value was used to graphically represent the iterations. It was
observed that although the values were slightly different after z amount of operations, yet in the
long run, for k values where the system cycled to a certain point/s, the x values were negligible.
For example, when k = 2, the x values are different but eventually converge to the same point, in this
case being 0.5. Therefore, only the x value of 0.1 will be used to prove the properties of the k value.
0.1 0.6 0.98
0.18 0.48 0.0392
0.2952 0.4992 0.075327
0.416114 0.499999 0.139305
0.485926 0.5 0.239799
0.499604 0.5 0.36459
0.5 0.5 0.463328
0.5 0.5 0.49731
0.5 0.5 0.499986
Bifurcation of the Logistic Map

Value of K
0.5 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2
Value/s after
40 iterations
0 0 2 0.33
0.4285

0.5
General
Results of
Orbits
Approaches 0 Approaches 0
Eventually
Fixed
Fixed
Eventual
ly Fixed
Fixed

Value of
K
2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.35 3.4
Value/s
after 40
iterations
0.55

0.6 0.6363
0.690.6
3
0.49530.
8124
0.4651
0.8334
0.450.
84
General
Results of
Orbits
Fixed Fixed
Eventually
Fixed
2-Cycle 2-Cycle 2-Cycle 2-Cycle

Value of K 3.45 3.5 3.55 3.57 4
Value/s after
40 iterations
0.420.84
0.450.85
0.380.82
0.500.87
0.370.820.50
0.880.350.81
0.540.88
---- ----
General
Results of
Orbits
4-Cycle 4-Cycle 8-Cycle Chaotic Chaotic





The results shown on the previous page of the general outcomes of k can be simplified as follows:
y When K = 0 1, the value approaches 0.
y When K = 1 3, all values are fixed, however some initial values take longer than others to
eventually reach their fixed point.
y When k 3 3.4, the values become periodic, cycling between two points.
y When k 3.4 3.5, the values begin cycling between four points.
y When k 3.5 3.55, the values begin, cycling between eight points.
y When k 3.57 4, the values become chaotic.
After comparing these manual results to the bifurcation Winfeed graph, the simplified data results of
the iterations validate the graph. Before 3.56, the value of k was part of a deterministic system,
where the iterations could be predicted, whether a fixed point of oscillating values. However, as k
reached 3.57 and beyond, the values reached the onset of chaos and therefore were part of a chaotic
system where the numbers could not be predicted.



















-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
V
a
l
u
e
o
f
x
Number of Iterations
Comparing the Iteration outcomes of k
k=0.5
k=1
k=2
k=3
k=3.4
k=3.45
k=3.5
k=3.55
k=3.57
k=4
Q8. Fractals

Fractals are glorious geometric shapes full of incredible beauty and intricate detail, infinitely showing
magnificence no matter what the magnification. Being found in nature, medicine and even
seismology, in mathematics, they are simply a way of graphing an iterative process to complex
numbers. One of the first and most famous complex number fractals is that of Mandelbrot, shown
below:


This fractal uses the equation of z
1
=(z
0
)
2
+ c to
create the unique iterative process of the
Mandelbrot set.
To investigate the relationship the constant c
to the function, a number of values were
subbed in:



c = 0.1 c = 0.2 c = 0.3 c = 0.4 c = 0.5 c = 0.6 c = 0.7 c = 0.8 c = 0.9
Diverges
to
infinity
Converges to
0.262051773968049+0.420261222399986i
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity
Diverges
to
infinity

As can be observed, this function of complex numbers could be considered chaotic because of the
random change at 0.2.