No 4

26 January to 01 February, 2012

BMTI Short Sea Report

FOR BMTI-SUBSCRIBER . Cargoes Rising in Baltic Sea but Open Tonnage Still Keeping Freights Flat Trends were expected to stay neutral at best in the past week, but a surprising volume of new cargo demand has hit the Baltic Sea and North Sea trade routes as January comes to a closehowever, this
19 18 17 16 /mt 15 14 13 12 Week 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4

Baltic Westward [2011-12]

14.5/mt from Hamburg to North France, EUR 18/mt from Vyborg to South Norway or, in the other direction, EUR 15.5/mt from ARA to Denmark. Steel cargoes are also in steady demand with 3,000mt quoted at EUR 17.5/mt from Tallinn to ARA. Grain sees decent demand with 3,000mt of barley able to get EUR 10/mt from SCUK to ARA. In the northern Bay of Bothnia there is 10-30cm fast ice in the archipelagos, says Baltic Sea Ice Services, as well as very close or close 10-20cm thick ice and level ice farther out. The ice edge runs along the line of Bjurklubb-Farstugrunden-6nm south of Malren-20nm west of Marjaniemi-Kokkola. Off the ice edge there is new ice and ice formation. In the south Bay of Bothnia, in Norra Kvarken and in the Sea of Bothnia up to 20cm thick ice is in the inner skerries and new ice farther out. The ngermanlv is covered with 10-20cm thick fast ice or very close drift ice. In the Kronstadt Bay and in northern Vyborg Bay is 1020cm thick fast ice, then new ice up to the longitude of Sommers. Thin ice or new ice is in the inner skerries of the Archipelago Sea, in the northern and southern archipelagos of the Gulf of Finland, in Moonsund, in the Prnu Bay and on the coasts of the Gulf of Riga. Ice formation has started in the sheltered and shallow inner coastal waters of the western and southern Baltic Sea as well.

This graph tracks average freight rates for a general short sea cargo of 3.000 mt shipped from the Baltic States to the ARA region.

minor increase in demand has failed to offset the wider belief in subdued markets as well as the reality of sufficient open tonnageso far. Among the most demanded cargoes is fertilizer, shipments of which having increased considerably in the past ten days. There has been a notable increase in demand for timber with 5,000cbm going for steady freights of around EUR 22.5/cbm from Klaipeda to WCUK (and EUR 18.5/mt to ECUK). A 3,000mt from the eastern Baltic can achieve steady freights of EUR Turkish steelmakers, major scrap importers, reduced purchasing in recent weeks, prompting corrections in spot market prices, like the US$ 15/mt decline early last week. Traders currently report prices at Turkey's demolition scrapyard of Aliaga at US$ 325335/mt for bulk ers, US$ 330-340/mt for tankers and US$ 330-335/mt for containerships. With prices in decline, scrapyards are holding off buying. This week is expected to see similar declines, a local
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Mixed Outlook for Black Sea Scrap Business, Say Traders scrap shipper reports, pointing to a likely impact on shipments via Iskenderun, Marmara and Nemrut ports where an important share of throughput is scrap. "Vessels between 1,000 and 4,500 dwt will be influenced by this drop," said the shipper. "Also, Mariupol and Kerch ports are now closed due to poor weather conditions. Such changes in weather will bring on the Volgo-Balt and Sormovskiy sea river types, which should also prompt freight drops.
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The outlook for this week (and month) is mixed. You can find cargoes but freights are not satisfying." Current prices for 3A grade steel scrap are flat at US$ 430/mt CFR, according to a recent shipment of Trade volumes have dissipated in the Black Sea after an early year burst of activity. However, traders note, almost unanimously, that freights have not budged up or down, slightly heartening for owners who are feeling the crunch in operating costs from the recent rises in bunker costs. Also, somewhat encouraging for general earnings prospects, open vessels in the Black Sea have decreased over the past week as many owners began moving their non-ice class vessels to southern climates. Coal, steel and grains (and scrap to a more limited degree) make up the majority of trans-Black Sea volumes. Steel cargoes of 5,000mt are being rated at unchanged freights of US$ 3032/mt for Odessa/Alexandria. Coal of 6,000mt is able to achieve steady freights of around US$ 24/mt for shipments from Kerch to Trabzon or Samsun.

3,000mt of same sold to Turkish buyers by Russian exporters. Offers of US$ 425/mt have been refused. Spot prices for HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap are unchanged as well at US$ 437/mt CFR at Iskenderun.

Freights Steadier in Black Sea as Tonnage Tightens with Ice Class Onset
32 30 28 26 USD/mt 24 22 20 18 16 Week 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 Black Sea Southward [2011-12]

This tracks average freight rates for a general short sea cargo of 35,000mt shipped from Azov Sea to Marmara region.

Mediterranean Overview Market Update from an Area Ship Broker Libya: Grain shipments into Libya continue to improve. Export cargoes are limited to steels being moved on occasion and primarily fixed off market. Tunisia: Phosphates out of the port of Gabes have increased slightly with three fresh orders seen on the market for February dates. The ports of Zarzis and Sfax are operating normally with no congestion. Sousse is showing some increased cargo movement of silica sand and agri-products, mainly to Italy. Egypt: Activity from this sector of the market remains poor with the exception of four fresh urea cargoes and some salt. One has to admit that the situation in Egypt is deteriorating by the day as the country's foreign currency reserves have fallen from a peak of US$ 36 billion to about US$ 10 billion and could run out entirely by March. Unemployment amongst the countries youth forming 60% of the available work force is now at a staggering 25%. A well known Egyptian charterer reported that activity out of Egypt has slowed down as a direct result of the general fear of an ensuing revolution as conditions since the revolution are far worse than before with patience running thin amongst Egyptian who see no light at the end of the tunnel. Greece: Multiple fertilizer, steel, bauxite and agriproducts have been freshly quoted on the market last week for several Med destinations. Freights discussed by charterers are slightly off last done levels. No spot tonnage is quoted open in the area. Turkish Med: A fresh supply of steel cargoes hit the market last week for long hauls to Continent and UK with several charterers realizing the need to improve indicated freight levels in view of the higher bunker costs. Shorter voyages to the Black Sea and within East Med could also be seen quoted by several charterers with rates indicated for cement and scrap at last-done levels. Average freights are unchanged. Several spot Med traders are seen open in the area. Adriatic market: A promising start to last week with several lots of steels, agri-products, generals, and timber being quoted on the market early on. Tonnage in the 2-4,000 dwt size should have little problem eventually finding a suitable cargo. Freights remain stable. No tonnage is seen spot in the area. West Coast Italy: Several lots of steels and marble that have been unfixed now for at least a week were seen quoted on the market again last week. Freights being offered by charterers continue to remain stable, but with bunker prices increasing owners find little joy in the freights being offered. Freights remain stable. Some spot tonnage is seen in the area. South Spain-Spanish Med: Charterers are starting to burn their fingers more and more in this sector as bunker prices increasingly drive owners' ideas up by the day. Indicative of such a case was a steel cargo that circulated on the market for about two weeks from South Spain to Turkey (4,000mt). Charterers had started with ideas of EUR 22/mt. Eventually testing the waters for two weeks, they ended up paying EUR 28/mt. Fertilizers and steels to multiple
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Med destination in lots of 2-4,000mt are seen quoted freshly daily. Freight seems to be stable and the abundance of tonnage noted last weeks appears to be covered with no spot tonnage now seen in the area. Summary: Looking at the Greece-Turkish MedEgypt area, there are promising signs of improving cargo volumes in the Greek and Turkish Med. Egyptian Med, on the other hand, is a big disappointment with few cargoes available in the Med area. The Med coaster market is running at two speeds, i.e. that of modern tonnage and that of overage tonnage. Modern tonnage is being fixed faster and at better rates than older Med traders who are finding it next to impossible to find suitable business at the rates being offered. On most occasions owners of older tonnage are putting ships in warm lay-up for weeks at a time, waiting, hoping and praying for better days to come. The condition, though, remains critically volatile as Europe enters another recession and the countries playing an important role in Med trading show signs of troubleEgypt, Syria, Tunisia and Libya. One has to be very concerned about future developments in the region as unemployment remains high within southern Europe and northern Africa, with patience running thin and leadership structures that are unable to adjust to the new face of capitalism. In the South Spain-French Med-WC Italy-Adriatic area, all sectors are showing signs of growing cargo volumes. Freights are remaining for the most part stable for the short hall voyages and improving for the longer hall voyages as bunker prices increase. On some occasions we have seen charterers being burned after having played around with the cargo so long that at the end of the day they ran out of options and were forced to payin one case up to EUR 6/mt more than their initial freight ideas. Although this is an exception, it is safe to say that owners should make the effort to indicate on all proposed cargoes as no one can know when a cargo is prime for fixing in today's market. Dry Bulk Commodity News A cold wave bringing freezing temperatures through Europe lifted energy prices, including thermal coal, which gained 1% yesterday to US$ 105/mt ARA. Thermal Coal Spot Prices (FOB) usd/mt
export terminal this week last week change % diff

French Med: Once again last week, 10 fresh grain cargoes have appeared on the market for multiple Mediterranean destinations, complimented again with a fresh supply of steels. Freights remain stable and no spot tonnage is seen in the area. Against a backdrop of ongoing negotiations for the Greek PSI, the Med freight market opened last week with a Greek sirtaki dance led by Angela Merkel, Nikola Sarkozy, followed by Mr. Charles Dallara and, last but not least, the Greek prime minister who is following the lead of the first two in an attempt to have a new loan package in place before the maturity of a EUR 14 billion Greek bond in March. Anyone knowing anything about the sirtaki dance will tell you that it's fast, frantic, and exhausting. Under such conditions the week opened and we saw a considerable amount of tonnage covered early on in the week with most owners and brokers feeling the frustration of fixing and failing on a number of occasions. With another Davos forum scheduled this year the question being asked by most of those attending "is capitalism working?" Simply as a spectator to the events going on globally, what is apparent is that the rich are getting richer, the middle class are slowly being wiped out, the poor are getting poorer and although this might not apply now to the North European nationscontagion will be a likely result of events unfolding in the South of Europe. The raw truth remains that nations are being victimized by ratings agencies, bankers and speculators, all at a cost to their citizens, who as a direct result are finding it harder and harder to meet obligations and commitments as each year they are working harder than the year before only to achieve less financially and find their debt burdens have increased. So, whilst we await the answer from Davos on "is capitalism working?" as Churchill once said, "To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day."

the end of last week to exceed US$ 107/mt, the highest spot level at Richards Bay in three months. Among the world's top ten steelmaking countries, Turkey registered the strongest year-on-year growth in steel production in 2011 with 17% more produced last year (exceeding 34 Mt) than in the year before. This is according to new data released by the World Steel Association, which says that worldwide steel output hit another record of 1.52 billion tonnes with YoY growth of 6.8% in 2011. Notably a large portion of the steel production was sourced from Turkey's scrap importswhich rose 17.5% last
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Newcastle Richards Bay DES ARA

117.30 106.00 106.00

116.00 +1.30 105.40 +0.60 106.25 -0.25

+1% +1% +0%

Spot market prices for thermal coal from Europe's biggest seaborne supplier, South Africa, surged 3% at

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year to a whopping 21.6 Mt. There is concern from Turkish steel mills about lost demand in the weaker European economy, but Turkey actually exports more steel to the Middle East & North Africa (MENA), an area expecting 3.2% growth in 2012 compared to projected eurozone growth of 0.5%. The combination of the cold snap across Europe and the threat of a Russian curb on grain exports, sent EU wheat prices surging this week with Euronext milling wheat futures for March rising 3% on Tuesday to EUR 216.5/mtthe highest in five months. Farmers are concerned the cold wave may hurt European crops that were planted slightly earlier this year in the warmest European winter in 30 years. Temperatures will fall to -10 degrees Celsius this week in France's grain-producing area and -20 in SE France. Meanwhile, Russia is contemplating implementing a new grain duty to limit exports, which was confirmed by Deputy Agriculture Minister Ilya Shestakov on Tuesday. However, such a levy would likely not take force until April, says the government.

The influential Canadian Wheat Board says Ukraine may limit 2012 wheat exports given prior government moves and winter wheat prospects. Ukraine's wheat crop may decline 30% this year, say analysts.
Grain Freight Rates 2011-12
65 60 55 50

USD/mt

45 40 35 30 25 20 1 6 11 USG/EU Ukraine/Morocco 16 21 26 31 Week USG/Japan Ukraine/Italy 36 41 46 51 4

Brazil/EU N.France/Egypt

Investment Review Stagnant Week for Wall Street Bulker Shares Thin trading continued on FFA markets last week as Only TBS International [TBSI] ended 20% higher on the Cape Q2 was steady at US$ 10,000 all week- the week to US$ 0.23/share, only since TBS shares drifting only to US$ 9,800 by week's end. Panamax have fallen so low that any fluctuation is dramatic. FFAs were equally flat with the Q1 FFA losing the most, down US$ 600 week-on-week to US$ 9,500. Wilson of Norway, one of Europe's major short sea Supramaxes also drifted across the board with the operators, has halved an outstanding order for eight 4,500 dwt bulkers to four bulkers due to "severe Q2 Supra shedding US$ 350 to hit US$ 10,350. delays" at Shandong Baibuting Shipbuilding in Bulker shares are trading as flat as can be with steady China. Wilson says that the shipbuilder has also stock progression matching the stagnant physical consented to reducing the price for the order by freight marketsnearly all Wall Street-listed bulk US$ 4.4mthough it is so far unconfirmed if this is carrier shares ended last week where then started it. a per-vessel discount or a total order discount. BMTI Sale and Purchase Report Week 05 Investors show healthy interest in secondhand purchases as asset levels continue to head south. A clear preference towards smaller sizes can be observed as around 75% of this year's sales to now were with mini-bulkers (18%), Handysizes (36%) and Handymaxes (21%). The same sizes are those with the biggest decrease in prices in one week losing around US$ 300,000 for five-year-old ladies, currently around US$ 24.4m. Capesizes and Panamaxes of the same age have lost between US$ 150,000 and 200,000 in price compared to numbers of last week. Much more than half of last year's total scrapping of 448 ships in the dry bulk sector was done in the smaller sizes. Around 66%, which means 298 ships, were related to bulkers between 10-50,000 dwt. Only 74 ships of more than 85,000 dwt have been scrapped during 2011. But even assuming scrapping at the same pace and some order slippage during 2012, the increase of the dry bulk fleet will outstrip expected trade volume growth by far. Although China is nearly absent from holidays, the demolition market is rather busy with India doing most of the deals at impressively high numbers, paying around US$ 485/ldt. Pakistani yards are close behind offering US$ 475. Bangladesh remains unclear with the import tax issue still unsettled.

S&P general cargo

"Castor" | 12,334dwt | blt82 | Japan | 2x15t crns | Pielstick | sold to undiscl. byrs | USD 2.5 mio

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forthcoming holidays Date 1 Feb 2012 2 Feb 2012 3 Feb 2012 4 Feb 2012 5 Feb 2012 Country Mauritius no holidays San Lorenzo / Corrientes (Argentina); Mozambique; Sao Tome Birth of the Prophet (Muslim) in 13 localities, Angola; Sri Lanka Birth of the Prophet (Muslim) in 16 localities, Mexico; Pakistan

2012 by BMTI gmbh for . All rights reserved.

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BMTI Bunker Report Week 05 As the EU seemed to be coming closer to agreement on a permanent bailout fund of about EUR 500 billion, oil prices rose on Tuesday morning. Light, sweet crude for March delivery was at US$ 100.76 per barrel on the NYMEX and Brent crude for March delivery showed US$ 112.63 a barrel on London's ICE futures exchange at this time. Traders have little extra optimism regarding the settlement of the debt crisis in Europe, though the fear of recession is still in the air. Further, increasing tensions between the West and Iran with a possible embargo of oil exports may lead prices to rise over US$ 120 per barrel or even reach US$ 150, as Abdalla Salem El-Badri, secretary general of the OPEC, stated on Tuesday. One supplier in Klaipeda reports very tight avails for MDO with earliest deliveries possible from 5-6 February onwards. Some market players in Rotterdam advised being fully booked until 3 February. Good availability is reported for all products in Gibraltar. High demand with good avails and prompt deliveries possible is reported for the Piraeus.

bunker price info

Herewith some representative fuel oil prices in US currency / delivered
IFO 380 Actuals Previous 425 (415) 735 (719) 684 (667) 675 (662) 682 (667) 698 (683) 686 (678) 680 (668) 699 (691) 670 (653) IFO 180 Actuals Previous 440 (425) 765 (749) 714 (692) 700 (675) 711 (684) 735 (720) 720 (699) 710 (698) 724 (715) 705 (680) MGO Actuals Previous 915 (910) 995 (975) 995 (965) 965 (935) 974 (951) 1010 (999) 983 (968) 977 (961) 1030 (1017) 975 (969) Availability Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Tight Fair Fair Fair Tight

ST. PETERSBURG GDANSK GOTHENBURG ROTTERDAM IMMINGHAM GIBRALTAR 2 MALTA PIRAEUS 1 ISTANBUL NOVOROSSIYSK 2
1

prices ex wharf | 2delivered

Baltic Indices
for . Actuals DRY (BDI): HANDYSIZE (BHSI): 680 406 Previous (807) (454) % - 16% - 11% - 127 - 48 Tren d Min/Maxlast 12 mos 680 2,173 406 829 Min/Max-Volatility
( % from Act. )

1,493 220% 423 104%

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26 January to 01 February, 2012

BMTI Short Sea Freight Rates

North France | S. Spain | general | 5,500mt | 19.50 West Med | Black Sea | general | 5,500mt | 21.00 East Med | West Med | general | 4,500mt | 20.0 French Bay | Portugal | general | 4,000mt | 15.00 North Spain | West Med | steel | 3,800mt | 16.85 ARAG | Portugal | meals | 3,600mt | 20.00 ARAG | Portugal | meals | 3,550mt | 20.00 ECUK | North Spain | general | 3,500mt | 16.00 ARAG | N. Spain | scrap | 3,450mt | 16.25 Norway | Portugal | scrap | 3,450mt | 23.50 Portugal | ARAG | granite | 3,450mt | 13.0 Portugal | GNS | stones | 3,400mt | 13.50 ARAG | French Bay | turning | 3,400mt | 17.75 North Spain | ECUK | steel | 3,300mt | 16.8 EC Ireland | ECUK | stones | 3,200mt | 6.40 ECUK | N. Spain | scrap | 3,200mt | 14.50 WCUK | ECUK | stones | 3,200mt | 6.00 EC Ireland | ECUK | grain | 3,200mt | 6.50 North Spain | German Baltic| steel| 3,200mt| 16.50 North France | Port | scrap | 3,200mt | 16.00 ECUK | French Bay | scrap | 3,100mt | 15.50 ARAG | N. France | general | 3,096mt | 11.80 French Bay | Portugal | scrap | 3,000mt | 20.0 French Bay | Port | grains | 3,000/10 | 15.5 Inside Skaw | French Bay | scrap | 3,000mt | 26.75 Portugal | ARAG | stones | 3,000mt | 12.50 WCUK | EC Ireland | grain | 3,000mt | 8.75 EC Ireland | WCUK | scrap | 3,000mt | 7.20 Kherson | Marmara | maize | 3,000mt | $29.50 Ilyichevsk | Trabzon | steels | 3,000mt | $19.00 Adriatic | Iskenderun | scrap sf 60' | 3,000mt | $27.5 Hamburg | SPB | cement | 3,000mt | 17.00 WCUK | ECUK | coal | 2,980mt | 8.750 WCUK | ECUK | coal | 2,950mt | 8.750 North Spain | ECUK | steel | 2,900mt | 17.90 North Spain | ECUK | steel | 2,900mt | 15.00 German Baltic | ECUK | grain | 2,880mt | 15.00 SCUK | ECUK | scrap | 2,850mt | 11.25 ARAG | ECUK | agriprods | 2,800mt | 8.25 French Bay | ECUK | grain | 2,750mt | 14.00 WCUK | WCUK | scrap | 2,750mt | 11.55 WCUK | WCUK | scrap | 2,700mt | 11.85 West Med | Spanish Med | slag | 2,700/5 | 15.25 EC Ireland | North France | scrap | 2,700mt | 20.00 N. France | French Bay | scrap | 2,500mt | 22.00 ARAG | Lower Baltic | agriprods | 2,500mt | 11.25 North France | French Bay | scrap | 2,400mt | 21.00 Bergen | Parnu | split | 2,250mt | 8.25 German Baltic | ARAG | grain | 2,180mt | 18.50 ECUK | ARAG | general | 2,000mt | 11.00 West Med | West Med | steel | 2,000mt | 19.25 North France | WCUK | wheat | 1,800mt | 20.50

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