Commodities I Metals & Energy

February 7, 2012
Precious metals
High MCX Gold(Apr) (`/10 gm) Silver(Mar) (`/kg) Gold Mini (`/10 gm) Silver Mini (`/kg) COMEX (US$/oz) Gold(Apr) Silver(Mar) 1,740.9 33.87 1,714.0 32.99 1,724.9 33.75 (0.2) 0.3 238,833 45,083 28,030 56,539 27,888 56,538 27,808 55,675 27,661 55,700 27,936 56,426 27,780 56,433 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 11,908 14,122 37,176 36,459 Low Close %Chg OI

Market pulse Gold prices declined after the Greek debt crisis returned to the spotlight, renewing concerns about the impact that Europe's financial troubles could have on the global economy. Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, increased to 1,277.13 tons, as on Feb 2. Silver holdings of ishares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, increased to 9,664.26 tons, as on Feb 6. France and Germany warned Greece's leaders that they need to approve new reforms or risk bankruptcy. Greece could default on a bond repayment next month without another installment of bailout loans. International Monetary Fund said that a sharp downturn in Europe could cut China's economic growth rate nearly in half. as it is a huge importer of commodities, from oil and copper to soybeans. Copper prices declined, pressured by of a stronger dollar and European debt-contagion fears, after the failure of Greece to approve the terms of a new bailout package. Copper futures for Dec. delivery closed slightly down at $3.8645 per pound on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude oil futures declined, after Greece let another deadline pass on accepting terms of a bailout deal, causing the euro to dip and the dollar to rise, moves that soured investors' risk appetite for oil and other commodities. German imports of crude oil from Syria and Iran fell last year while Europes biggest economy doubled its imports of the fuel from Iraq, as per the Berlin-based Economy Ministry report. The world's two most important crude contracts are heading in different directions, with the price premium for European crude over US crude growing to the largest level in 3-months, due to rising domestic supplies and concerns of shortages overseas. The premium for Europe's Brent crude over US traded West Texas Intermediate oil futures rose to $19.02, the widest gap since November. As recently as Jan 3, the gap was under $10. China is likely halve its crude oil imports from Iran in March, compared to average monthly purchases a year ago, as a dispute over payments and prices stretches into a third month, as per oil industry sources - Reuters. Natural gas futures rose on NYMEX for the second time in 3-days, as forecasts showed colder weather moving across the US, signaling higher demand for the heating fuel.

Base metals
High MCX (`/kg) Alum.(Feb) Copper(Feb) Lead(Feb) Nickel(Feb) Zinc(Feb) LME(3mths) (US$/ton) Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc 2,258 8,570 2,237 21,672 2,167 2,210 8,428 2,177 21,025 2,119 2,218 8,510 2,188 21,600 2,134 (1.7) (1.0) (1.7) 1.4 (0.1) -----109.5 420.5 108.8 1,062.3 105.4 108.0 416.7 106.4 1,032.3 103.8 108.2 418.9 106.6 1,060.2 103.9 (0.8) (0.1) (1.4) 1.8 (0.3) 2,739 25,485 5,507 12,155 3,325 Low Close %Chg OI

Energy
High MCX Cr. oil(Feb) (`/bbl) Nat.gas(Feb) (`/mmbtu) NCDEX Cr. oil (`/bbl) NYMEX Cr. oil(Mar) (US$/bbl) Nat.gas(Mar) (US$/mmbtu) 97.8 2.59 96.4 2.45 96.9 2.55 (1.0) 1.8 280,572 283,806 4,800 4,747 4,773 0.1 997 4,803 126.4 4,746 120.3 4,772 124.4 0.1 1.5 29,195 32,960 Low Close %Chg OI

Currency
Close Rs`/US$ US$/EUR US$/GBP JPY/US$ 49.06 1.3130 1.5818 76.54 Prev close 48.68 1.3144 1.5815 76.55 %Chg 0.8 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0)

LME Inventory levels

Base Metals Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc Close 5,019,525 323,150 374,800 94,518 9,400 838,700 Prev close 4,989,000 326,100 375,300 94,524 9,240 839,700 %Chg 0.6 (0.9) (0.1) (0.0) 1.7 (0.1)

Ratios
Close Gold v/s Oil Gold v/s Silver 1,724.9 1,724.9 Close 96.9 33.75 Ratio 17.8 51.1

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

February 7, 2012
Pivot levels
MCX levels
Commodity Gold Silver Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil Nat. Gas R3 28,110 57,104 109.3 421.8 108.4 1,084 105.1 4,817 129.2 R2 28,047 56,858 108.9 420.7 107.8 1,075 104.7 4,801 127.5 R1 27,988 56,629 108.5 419.7 107.1 1,067 104.2 4,785 125.8 Pivot 27,936 56,426 108.2 418.9 106.6 1,060 103.9 4,772 124.4 S1 27,884 56,223 107.8 418.0 106.0 1,053 103.5 4,759 123.0 S2 27,825 55,994 107.4 417.0 105.4 1,045 103.0 4,744 121.4 S3 27,762 55,748 107.0 415.9 104.7 1,037 102.6 4,727 119.6

International levels
Commodity Gold Silver Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil R3 1,746.0 34.44 2,256 8,622 2,235 22,108 2,172 98.00 R2 1,738.4 34.19 2,242 8,581 2,218 21,924 2,158 97.61 R1 1,731.2 33.96 2,229 8,544 2,202 21,752 2,145 97.24 Pivot 1,724.9 33.75 2,218 8,510 2,188 21,600 2,134 96.91 S1 1,718.6 33.54 2,207 8,476 2,174 21,448 2,123 96.58 S2 1,711.5 33.31 2,194 8,439 2,158 21,277 2,110 96.22 S3 1,703.8 33.06 2,180 8,398 2,141 21,092 2,096 95.82 2.44

Nat. Gas 2.66 2.62 2.58 2.55 2.52 2.48 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

Trade Recommendations
Commodity Gold (Apr) Silver (Mar) Copper (Feb) Aluminum (Feb) Lead (Feb) Nickel (Feb) Zinc (Feb) Crude oil (Feb) Strategy Sell -Hold Sell Sell Hold Sell Buy Sell Sell Levels Around 28000 -Below 419 Below 108 108.4-108.7 Above 1063 Below 104 Below 4760 Target 1 27900 -416 107 107 1076 103 4730 Target 2 27800 -413 106 105.5 1090 102 4700 -Stop-Loss 28040 -420.9 108.8 109.1 1054 104.7 4780 -Trend* Sideways Down Sideways Sideways Up Up Sideways Sideways Down

Natural gas (Feb) ---**Strict Stop-Loss *Trend - its an overall trend & not a part of intra-day buy / sell strategies. Note: Calls given above are purely technical calls and not based on fundamentals.

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

February 7, 2012
Economic data schedule
Date 07-Feb Country / Currency AUD EUR 08-Feb USD JPY EUR 09-Feb CNY CNY GBP GBP GBP GBP EUR GBP 10-Feb CNY AUD EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP GBP USD USD USD Event Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) Consumer Credit Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) German Trade Balance (Euros) Producer Price Index (y-o-y) Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) Industrial Production (y-o-y) Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) BOE Asset Purchase Target Bank of England Rate Decision European Central Bank Rate Decision NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate Trade Balance (US$) Reserve Bank Board Statement on Monetary Policy German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) German CPI - EU Harmonized (y-o-y) German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) German CPI - EU Harmonized (m-o-m) Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (y-o-y) Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (y-o-y) Trade Balance U. of Michigan Confidence Monthly Budget Statement IST 9:00 16:30 1:30 5:20 12:30 7:00 7:00 15:00 15:00 17:30 17:30 18:15 20:30 $8.3bn 6:00 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 15:00 15:00 19:00 20:25 00:30 2.0% 2.3% -0.4% -0.5% 6.8% 3.7% -$48.4bn 74 -$62.5bn 2.0% 2.3% -0.4% -0.5% 8.7% 4.8% -$47.8bn 75 -$49.8bn 13.7bn 0.7% 4.0% -3.1% 0.3% 325bn 0.5% 1.0% Actual Cons. 4.0% 4.4% $7bn Previous 4.3% 3.6% $20.374bn -585.1bn 16.2bn 1.7% 4.1% -3.1% -0.6% 275bn 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% $16.52bn

Spreads
Commodity Near month 27,936 56,426 2nd month 28,277 57,814 Close 341 1,388 Prev close 332 1,386

Global Indices
Markets Close 17,707.3 5,361.7 8,929.2 20,709.9 2,331.1 2,940.1 Prev close 17,605.0 5,325.9 8,831.9 20,757.0 2,330.4 2,918.0 %Chg 0.6 0.7 1.1 (0.2) 0.0 0.8

Precious metals Gold (`/10 gm) Silver (`/kg) Base metals Alum. (`/kg) Copper (`/kg) Lead (`/kg) Nickel (`/kg) Zinc (`/kg) Energy Cr. oil (`/bbl) Nat.gas (`/mmbtu)

Asia
Sensex Nifty Nikkie Hang Seng 108.2 418.9 106.6 1,060.2 103.9 109.3 423.8 107.6 1,066.3 104.8 1.15 4.95 1.05 6.10 0.95 1.00 4.75 1.05 5.90 0.90 Shanghai Straits Times

America
Dow Jones Nasdaq 12,845.1 2,528.3 12,862.2 2,529.2 (0.1) (0.0)

4,772 124.4

4,816 134.6

44 10.2

42 10.3

Europe
CAC DAX FTSE 3,405.3 6,764.8 5,892.2 3,427.9 6,766.7 5,901.1 (0.7) (0.0) (0.2)

National-International price parity

MCX INR (`) Gold Silver Copper Crude oil *MCX premium/ (discount) 27,936 56,426 418.9 4,772 1,724.90 33.75 3.897 96.9 COMEX Close* 49.06 525.87 1,591.90 (2.64) 17.60 Prev close* 48.68 629.98 1,892.31 1.12 4.15

Metals arbitrage
Close Lead-Zinc 2.70 Prev close 3.90

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

February 7, 2012

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Note:IdeasgivenundertheCommoditiessectionareforintradaypurposeoruptoaperiodofthreetradingsessions.Recommendationsunderthisheadingarenotnecessarilypartofourfundamentalbuyorselllist.

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.