APPENDIX B:

REVENUE FORECAST DETAIL

Table B.1 General Fund Revenue Statement - 2011-13 September 2011 Forecast .................... 91
Table B.2 General Fund Revenue Forecast by Fiscal Year ........................................................ 92
Table B.3 Summary of 2011 Legislative Session Adjustments .................................................. 93
Table B.4 Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenue Forecast ........................................................ 94
Table B.5 Oregon Corporate Income Tax Revenue Forecast ..................................................... 96
Table B.6 Cigarette and Tobacco Tax Distribution .................................................................... 98
Table B.7 Revenue Distribution to Local Governments ............................................................. 99
Table B.8 Track Record for the May 2011 Forecast ................................................................. 100
Table B.9 Summary of Lottery Resources ................................................................................ 101
Table B.10 Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook ............................................................ 102

90

91

Notes:

446,262,137

6,747,123,000

6,747,123,000

26,500,000

7,800,000

2,460,000

110,623,000

5,576,000

7,007,946,000

7,007,946,000

4,800,000

8,000,000

3,453,000

115,138,000

5,576,000

43,622,000
23,610,000
30,931,000
9,378,000

417,028,000
49,267,000
93,872,000
36,496,000
29,757,000
656,000

404,323,000
48,574,000
91,512,000
37,498,000
28,504,000
666,000
50,022,000
22,617,000
36,555,000
8,872,000

6,136,362,000

2012-13

5,865,021,000

2011-12

Total
2011-13

169,339,137

13,562,594,263

13,562,594,263
0

13,731,933,400

(23,135,600)

13,755,069,000

13,755,069,000

31,300,000

15,800,000

5,913,000

225,761,000

11,152,000

93,644,000
46,227,000
67,486,000
18,250,000

12,001,383,000
0
821,351,000
97,841,000
185,384,000
73,994,000
58,261,000
1,322,000

Forecasts Dated: 12/1/2011

6,740,817,000

6,740,817,000

26,500,000

4,500,000

2,460,000

110,209,000

5,576,000

60,957,000
24,697,000
32,607,000
9,182,000

412,463,000
48,322,000
91,512,000
37,498,000
28,504,000
873,000

6,985,658,000

6,985,658,000

4,800,000

7,000,000

3,453,000

114,707,000

5,576,000

53,766,000
24,366,000
27,591,000
9,850,000

400,178,000
49,341,000
93,872,000
36,496,000
29,757,000
656,000

6,124,249,000

2012-13

Total
2011-13

140,745,137

13,562,594,263

13,562,594,263
0

13,703,339,400

(23,135,600)

13,726,475,000

13,726,475,000

31,300,000

11,500,000

5,913,000

224,916,000

11,152,000

114,723,000
49,063,000
60,198,000
19,032,000

11,969,206,000
0
812,641,000
97,663,000
185,384,000
73,994,000
58,261,000
1,529,000

Forecasts Dated: 3/1/2012

5,844,957,000

2011-12

Corporate income tax figure includes Corporate Multistate taxes.

Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance Tax, Western Oregon Severance Tax and Amusement Device Tax.
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Taxes are gross tax receipts. Distributions, net of administrative costs, are reported in the Table B.6.
Detailed entries may not add to totals due to rounding.
* Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cashflow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.

Estimated Ending Balance

Projected Expenditures

13,562,594,263

13,562,594,263

Legislatively Adopted Budget

Plus Administrative Actions

14,008,856,400

(23,135,600)

Available Resources

Plus Legislatively Adopted Actions**

Less Anticipated Administrative Actions*

14,031,992,000

Net General Fund Revenues

Plus Beginning Balance

14,031,992,000

15,800,000
60,300,000

Miscellaneous Revenues1

One-time Transfers

Gross General Fund Revenues

9,913,000

Interest Earnings

187,388,000

11,152,000

Central Service Charges

Liquor Apportionment

88,237,000
47,039,000
80,598,000
19,070,000

12,193,553,000
0
894,243,000
100,258,000
190,284,000
74,244,000
58,586,000
1,327,000

Fines and Fees

State Court Fees
Secretary of State Fees
Criminal Fines & Assessments
Securities Fees

Taxes
Personal Income Taxes (Before Kicker)
Implicit Kicker Offset
Corporate Income Taxes (Before Kicker)
Insurance Taxes
Estate Taxes
Cigarette Taxes
Other Tobacco Products Taxes
Other Taxes

Estimate at
COS 2011

General Fund Revenue Statement -- 2011-13

Difference

(28,594,000)

(28,594,000)

(28,594,000)

(28,594,000)

(4,300,000)

(845,000)

21,079,000
2,836,000
(7,288,000)
782,000

(32,177,000)
0
(8,710,000)
(178,000)
0
0
0
207,000

03/1/2012 Less
12/1/2011

(305,517,000)

(305,517,000)

(305,517,000)

(305,517,000)

(29,000,000)

(4,300,000)

(4,000,000)

37,528,000

26,486,000
2,024,000
(20,400,000)
(38,000)

(224,347,000)
0
(81,602,000)
(2,595,000)
(4,900,000)
(250,000)
(325,000)
202,000

03/1/2012 Less
COS

Table B.1 General Fund Revenue Statement - 2011-13 September 2011 Forecast 1

92
12,525.8

175.3
8.2
198.3
4.9
458.3

10,467.2
827.6
90.5
168.9
76.8
47.3
2.5

2009-11
Bie nnium

6,017.2

79.5
4.1
104.4
2.9
321.4

4,943.2
359.0
51.0
92.6
37.5
20.0
1.6

6.8%

0.2%
-6.2%
11.9%
-94.1%
360.4%

3.7%
20.9%
-3.9%
-14.2%
-5.0%
37.2%
25.5%

Pe rce nt
Change

6,508.6

95.8
4.1
93.9
2.0
136.9

5,524.0
468.6
39.5
76.2
39.3
27.4
0.9

13,726.5

243.0
11.2
224.9
5.9
42.8

11,969.2
812.6
97.7
185.4
74.0
58.3
1.5

2011-13
Bie nnium

6,740.8

127.4
5.6
110.2
2.5
31.0

5,845.0
412.5
48.3
91.5
37.5
28.5
0.9

9.6%

38.7%
36.4%
13.4%
20.0%
-90.7%

14.3%
-1.8%
8.0%
9.8%
-3.7%
23.1%
-38.8%

Pe rce nt
Change

6,985.7

115.6
5.6
114.7
3.5
11.8

6,124.2
400.2
49.3
93.9
36.5
29.8
0.7

15,676.1

233.2
11.2
208.9
10.0
15.5

13,657.7
1,097.3
105.5
204.0
68.7
62.9
1.3

2013-15
Bie nnium

7,548.1

118.1
5.6
102.9
4.3
7.5

6,565.9
526.3
51.0
99.9
35.1
30.9
0.6

14.2%

-4.0%
0.0%
-7.1%
68.5%
-63.8%

14.1%
35.0%
8.1%
10.0%
-7.1%
7.9%
-17.4%

Pe rce nt
Change

8,128.0

115.1
5.6
106.0
5.6
8.0

7,091.8
571.0
54.5
104.1
33.6
32.0
0.6

17,540.3

239.0
11.2
221.6
14.9
16.6

15,464.2
1,097.9
114.4
229.1
62.3
67.8
1.2

2015-17
Bie nnium

8,593.6

121.0
5.6
109.2
7.0
8.2

7,560.1
549.3
56.1
111.1
32.1
33.3
0.6

11.9%

2.5%
0.0%
6.1%
50.0%
7.1%

13.2%
0.1%
8.4%
12.3%
-9.3%
7.9%
-2.0%

Pe rce nt
Change

8,946.8

118.0
5.6
112.5
8.0
8.4

7,904.1
548.6
58.3
118.1
30.2
34.5
0.6

Note: Detailed entries may not add to totals due to rounding. Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance T ax,
Western Oregon Severance T ax and Amusement Device T ax. Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-mutual Receipts are included in Other

Total Ge ne ral Fund

Licenses and Fees

Charges for Services
Liquor Apportionment
Interest Earnings
Others

O the r Re ve nue s

Personal Income
Corporate Excise & Income
Insurance
Estate T axes
Cigarette
Other T obacco Products
Other T axes

Taxe s

Biennial Totals

Total Ge ne ral Fund

Licenses and Fees

Charges for Services
Liquor Apportionment
Interest Earnings
Others

O the r Re ve nue s

Personal Income
Corporate Excise & Income
Insurance
Estate
Cigarette
Other T obacco Products
Other T axes

Taxe s

Fiscal Years

March 2012

19,293.4

245.6
11.2
235.1
29.3
16.8

17,163.8
1,082.7
121.9
256.4
56.4
73.0
1.2

2017-19
Bie nnium

9,386.0

124.5
5.6
115.8
11.8
8.4

8,331.9
538.3
60.3
124.1
28.8
35.8
0.6

10.0%

2.8%
0.0%
6.1%
95.9%
1.2%

11.0%
-1.4%
6.6%
11.9%
-9.6%
7.7%
-0.4%

Pe rce nt
Change

9,907.4

121.1
5.6
119.3
17.5
8.4

8,831.9
544.4
61.6
132.3
27.5
37.2
0.6

21,274.9

251.9
11.2
249.5
57.1
16.8

19,001.8
1,140.6
129.3
285.4
51.4
78.7
1.2

2019-21
Bie nnium

10,368.0

127.8
5.6
122.9
24.4
8.4

9,254.9
556.1
63.6
138.8
26.3
38.6
0.6

10.3%

2.6%
0.0%
6.1%
95.1%
0.0%

10.7%
5.3%
6.1%
11.3%
-8.8%
7.7%
0.0%

Pe rce nt
Change

10,906.9

124.1
5.6
126.6
32.7
8.4

9,746.9
584.5
65.7
146.6
25.1
40.1
0.6

2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2014-15
Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar Fiscal Ye ar

($Millions)

TABLE B.2
General Fund Revenue Forecast

Table B.2 General Fund Revenue Forecast by Fiscal Year 1

Table B.3 Summary of 2011 Legislative Session Adjustments 1

Biennia
2011-13

2013-15

2015-17

2017-19

2019-21

Staff
Measure
Summary

Revenue
Impact
Statement

HB 2154
HB 2523
HB 2528
HB 3170
HB 3454
HB 3606
HB 3672

HB 2154
HB 2523
HB 2528
HB 3170
HB 3454
HB 3606
HB 3672

SB 301
SB 817

SB 301
SB 817

HB 2071

HB 2071
HB 5040

HB 2154
HB 2523
HB 2527
HB 3058
HB 3170
HB 3606
HB 3672

HB 2154
HB 2523
HB 2527
HB 3058
HB 3170
HB 3606
HB 3672

SB 301
SB 817

SB 301
SB 817

HB 2071

HB 2071
HB 5040
SB 939

Personal Income Tax Impacts (Millions)

Tax Law Change
Farmworker Credit - HB 2154
BETC Administration - HB 2523
529 College Savings - HB 2728
Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170
Net Operating Loss - HB 3454
BETC Clarification - HB 3606
Tax Credits - HB 3672
BETC
Biomass
E-commerce Zone
Film & Video
Fish Screening
Oregon Investment Advantage
Renewables
Conservation
Transportation
RETC
Federal Reconnect - SB 301
Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817
Compliance Bills
Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071
DOR Enforcement - HB 5040

Personal Income Tax Total

-$0.01
$0.00
$0.00
$0.22
$0.80
$0.00

-$0.01
$0.00
-$0.03
$0.12
$0.50
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$0.03
$0.00
$0.40
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$0.03
$0.00
$0.26
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$0.03
$0.00
$0.17
$0.00

$7.90
-$3.60
-$0.01
-$6.00
-$0.02
$0.00
-$2.00
-$2.30
-$1.00
-$7.60
$0.00
$0.00

$6.40
-$7.60
-$0.02
-$12.00
-$0.04
-$0.10
-$2.25
-$6.60
-$1.90
-$21.20
$0.00
-$4.60

$3.20
-$8.30
-$0.02
-$12.00
-$0.04
-$0.05
-$2.25
-$8.20
-$1.70
-$28.40
$0.00
-$23.30

$2.00
-$4.65
-$0.01
-$7.00
-$0.02
-$0.02
-$1.13
-$7.70
-$0.70
-$20.50
$0.00
-$25.50

$1.80
$0.00
$0.00
-$0.20
$0.00
-$0.01
$0.00
-$3.50
-$0.25
$0.00
$0.00
-$7.60

$0.00
$5.50

$0.00
$5.60

$0.00
$5.60

$0.00
$5.60

$0.00
$5.60

$-8.13

-$43.73

-$75.09

-$59.40

-$4.02

-$0.02
$0.00
$0.00
-$1.40
$0.09
$0.00

-$0.02
$0.00
-$2.80
-$1.40
$0.08
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$5.20
-$1.40
$0.00
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$7.70
-$1.40
$0.00
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
-$6.10
-$1.40
$0.00
$0.00

$11.90
-$0.30
-$0.80
-$0.04
-$0.10
-$0.80
-$0.20
-$0.01
$0.00
-$0.50
-$3.20
-$1.30
$0.00
$0.00

$10.00
-$0.60
-$1.60
-$0.08
-$0.20
-$1.70
-$0.40
-$0.01
-$0.10
-$0.75
-$9.60
-$2.90
$0.00
-$0.70

$4.80
-$0.70
-$1.60
-$0.08
-$0.20
-$2.10
-$0.40
-$0.01
-$0.05
-$0.75
-$12.10
-$2.60
$0.00
-$5.50

$3.10
-$0.50
-$1.30
-$0.06
-$0.10
-$1.70
-$0.20
-$0.01
-$0.02
-$0.38
-$10.60
-$0.90
$0.00
-$6.50

$2.50
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
-$3.50
-$0.20
$0.00
-$2.50

$0.00
$9.20
$18.00

$0.00
$9.40
$0.00

$0.00
$9.40
$0.00

$0.00
$9.40
$0.00

$0.00
$9.40
$0.00

$30.52

-$3.38

-$18.49

-$18.86

-$1.80

$58.10
$0.00
$33.13
$22.20
-$7.44
$2.20

$0.00
$0.00
$40.43
$20.71
-$22.00
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
$42.83
$22.05
-$32.00
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
$45.40
$23.50
-$34.00
$0.00

$0.00
$0.00
$47.50
$25.50
-$34.00
$0.00

$108.19

$39.14

$32.88

$34.90

$39.00

Corporate Income Tax Impacts (Millions)

Tax Law Change
Farmworker Credit - HB 2154
BETC Administration - HB 2523
Housing Lender Credit - HB 2527
Ag CoopMin Tax - HB 3058
Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170
BETC Clarification - HB 3606
Tax Credits - HB 3672
BETC
Biomass
Fire Insurance
E-commerce Zone
Long-Term Rural EZ
R&D
Film & Video
Fish Screening
Oregon Investment Advantage
Renewables
Conservation
Transportation
Federal Reconnect - SB 301
Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817
Compliance Bills
Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071
DOR Enforcement - HB 5040
Other Transfers - SB 939

Corporate Income Tax Total

SB 939

Other Tax/Revenue Impacts (Millions)

Other Transfers - SB 939
Inheritance Tax - HB 2541
Court Fees - HB 2710
Criminal Fine Account - HB 2712
OUS Interest Earnings - SB 242
OLCC Transfers - SB 5522

Other Tax Total

93

SB 939
HB 2541
HB 2710
HB 2712
SB 242

SB 939
HB 2541
HB 2710
HB 2712
SB 242
SB 5522

Table B.4 Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1

TABLE B.4

OREGON PERSONAL INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS

Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted
2005:3

2005:4

2006:1

2006:2

1,064,107
8.4%

1,087,942
6.4%

1,177,488
10.5%

1,075,476
6.0%

194,848
22.4%

186,648
36.4%

224,403
11.4%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

51,797
16.8%

68,000
27.6%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

62,638
-9.4%

94,755
17.8%

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA

OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

(149,733)

2006:4

2007:1

2007:2

4,405,013
7.8%

1,118,878
5.1%

1,172,656
7.8%

1,182,336
0.4%

1,088,108
1.2%

4,561,977
3.6%

270,754
0.3%

876,653
14.2%

231,720
18.9%

177,026
-5.2%

267,345
19.1%

363,055
34.1%

1,039,146
18.5%

88,998
13.8%

787,622
49.4%

996,416
41.7%

55,408
7.0%

89,432
31.5%

100,476
12.9%

779,577
-1.0%

1,024,893
2.9%

345,524
0.7%

358,699
-1.4%

861,617
0.6%

89,254
42.5%

126,707
33.7%

444,768
28.7%

369,456
3.0%

1,030,186
19.6%

176,911

27,178

1,098,381
10.9%

1,247,835
10.2%

1,145,365
14.3%

1,952,063
22.2%

2007:3

2007:4

2008:1

2008:2

1,115,359
-0.3%

1,200,822
2.4%

1,196,532
1.2%

1,111,034
2.1%

4,623,747
1.4%

250,749
8.2%

217,163
22.7%

281,441
5.3%

399,475
10.0%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

57,503
3.8%

129,817
45.2%

104,841
4.3%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

71,372
-20.0%

155,912
23.0%

389,876
-12.3%

(177,781)

(1,084,201)

1,174,457
3.0%

307,689
-76.6%

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA

OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

March 2012

2006:3

FY 2006

5,443,644
15.3%

(176,911)

177,781

FY 2007

870

1,139,841
3.8%

1,312,406
5.2%

1,105,388
-3.5%

2,039,066
4.5%

2008:3

2008:4

2009:1

2009:2

1,162,107
4.2%

1,182,763
-1.5%

1,128,994
-5.6%

1,089,305
-2.0%

4,563,169
-1.3%

1,148,828
10.6%

264,440
5.5%

174,826
-19.5%

217,305
-22.8%

263,135
-34.1%

919,707
-19.9%

971,325
24.6%

1,263,486
23.3%

70,306
22.3%

99,430
-23.4%

104,105
-0.7%

529,995
-45.4%

803,836
-36.4%

365,908
-1.0%

983,068
-4.6%

92,063
29.0%

180,329
15.7%

447,706
14.8%

404,229
10.5%

1,124,327
14.4%

FY 2008

182,322

(1,079,660)

(182,322)

1,192,938
7.9%

2,298,247
12.7%

4,973,332
-11.1%

1,222,469
4.1%

1,276,690
314.9%

1,002,698
-15.9%

1,616,726
-29.7%

138,521

FY 2009

(43,801)
5,118,583
2.9%

2009:3

2009:4

2010:1

2010:2

2010:3

2010:4

2011:1

2011:2

1,092,795
-6.0%

1,151,673
-2.6%

1,157,857
2.6%

1,116,552
2.5%

4,518,878
-1.0%

1,146,189
4.9%

1,196,214
3.9%

1,262,781
9.1%

1,218,439
9.1%

4,823,622
6.7%

176,110
-33.4%

161,759
-7.5%

186,894
-14.0%

265,703
1.0%

790,467
-14.1%

179,692
2.0%

148,589
-8.1%

207,036
10.8%

284,662
7.1%

819,978
3.7%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

63,363
-9.9%

77,013
-22.5%

105,745
1.6%

515,262
-2.8%

761,383
-5.3%

62,259
-1.7%

81,728
6.1%

114,877
8.6%

607,592
17.9%

866,456
13.8%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

96,477
4.8%

188,704
4.6%

459,550
2.6%

380,459
-5.9%

1,125,190
0.1%

92,291
-4.3%

151,515
-19.7%

432,478
-5.9%

340,652
-10.5%

1,016,937
-9.6%

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA

OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

(138,521)

FY 2010

5,596,701
2.8%

136,193

990,947
-1.2%

1,653,251
2.3%

(2,328)

(136,193)

4,943,210
-3.4%

1,159,655
5.7%

1,275,015
6.1%

1,152,216
16.3%

1,935,973
17.1%

2012:3

2012:4

2013:1

2013:2

1,257,679
1.8%

1,314,633
2.1%

1,378,337
4.1%

1,292,552
5.5%

5,243,201
3.4%

915,530
11.7%

229,569
17.9%

170,660
-7.9%

286,211
51.1%

386,449
11.6%

1,072,890
17.2%

700,656
15.3%

992,026
14.5%

75,661
-11.9%

78,116
-10.5%

81,771
-30.8%

726,001
3.6%

961,549
-3.1%

441,318
29.6%

1,138,123
11.9%

106,267
64.3%

151,608
-3.0%

465,805
-2.1%

439,962
-0.3%

1,163,643
2.2%

1,097,271
-10.2%

1,201,740
-5.9%

2011:3

2011:4

2012:1

2012:2

1,235,508
7.8%

1,287,030
7.6%

1,324,546
4.9%

1,224,987
0.5%

5,072,070
5.2%

194,674
8.3%

185,239
24.7%

189,409
-8.5%

346,208
21.6%

FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

85,889
38.0%

87,233
6.7%

118,248
2.9%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

64,687
-29.9%

156,272
3.1%

475,847
10.0%

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA

OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

(165,933)
1,285,451
10.8%

1,403,230
10.1%

1,156,356
0.4%

FY 2012

169,387

3,454

1,999,921
3.3%

Note: "Other" includes kicker and federal pension refunds, as well as July withholding accrued to June.
Tax law impacts are reflected in the collections numbers to produce more meaningful projections.

94

5,844,957
5.8%

(169,387)
1,287,255
0.1%

1,411,800
0.6%

1,280,515
10.7%

165,933

FY 2011

179,639
2,144,679
7.2%

29,740
5,522,860
11.7%
FY 2013

10,251
6,124,249
4.8%

OREGON PERSONAL INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS

Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted

TABLE B.4

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA
FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA
REFUNDS
%CHYA
OTHER

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA
FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA
REFUNDS
%CHYA
OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA
1

REFUNDS
%CHYA
OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

WITHHOLDING
%CHYA
EST. PAYMENTS
%CHYA
FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA
REFUNDS
%CHYA
OTHER
TOTAL
%CHYA

2013:4

2014:1

2014:2

1,322,148
5.1%

1,382,423
5.2%

1,450,326
5.2%

1,359,644
5.2%

267,009
16.3%

182,586
7.0%

306,368
7.0%

58,160
-23.1%

81,473
4.3%

106,321
0.1%

121,599
-19.8%

(179,639)

TOTAL
%CHYA

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

2013:3

March 2012

2014:3

2014:4

2015:1

2015:2

5,514,540
5.2%

1,398,892
5.8%

1,462,665
5.8%

1,544,474
6.5%

1,449,543
6.6%

5,855,574
6.2%

417,493
8.0%

1,173,457
9.4%

288,459
8.0%

197,254
8.0%

331,140
8.1%

455,167
9.0%

1,272,019
8.4%

87,764
7.3%

784,398
8.0%

1,011,795
5.2%

62,538
7.5%

87,823
7.8%

98,875
12.7%

915,134
16.7%

1,164,369
15.1%

420,731
-9.7%

495,983
12.7%

1,144,635
-1.6%

107,889
1.5%

123,606
1.7%

449,964
6.9%

530,962
7.1%

1,212,422
5.9%

FY 2014

190,372

10,734

1,361,358
5.8%

1,524,882
8.0%

1,423,727
11.2%

2,255,924
5.2%

2015:3

2015:4

2016:1

2016:2

6,565,891
7.2%
FY 2016

(190,372)

202,672

1,451,627
6.6%

1,624,136
6.5%

1,524,524
7.1%

2,491,553
10.4%

2016:3

2016:4

2017:1

2017:2

FY 2015

12,300
7,091,840
8.0%
FY 2017

1,491,361
6.6%

1,559,358
6.6%

1,628,117
5.4%

1,525,029
5.2%

6,203,865
5.9%

1,569,070
5.2%

1,640,595
5.2%

1,701,752
4.5%

1,592,159
4.4%

6,503,577
4.8%

314,489
9.0%

215,053
9.0%

360,573
8.9%

484,678
6.5%

1,374,793
8.1%

334,878
6.5%

228,996
6.5%

383,646
6.4%

508,237
4.9%

1,455,758
5.9%

70,889
13.4%

100,293
14.2%

108,699
9.9%

993,834
8.6%

1,273,714
9.4%

77,608
9.5%

109,465
9.1%

116,918
7.6%

1,051,626
5.8%

1,355,616
6.4%

110,103
2.1%

131,743
6.6%

484,312
7.6%

576,442
8.6%

1,302,600
7.4%

128,282
16.5%

146,844
11.5%

525,052
8.4%

619,907
7.5%

1,420,085
9.0%

-202,672

213,029

10,357

-213,029

222,270

9,241

1,563,964
7.7%

1,742,961
7.3%

1,613,076
5.8%

2,640,127
6.0%

7,560,129
6.6%

1,640,246
4.9%

1,832,212
5.1%

1,677,264
4.0%

2,754,384
4.3%

7,904,107
4.5%

2017:3

2017:4

2018:1

2018:2

2018:3

2018:4

2019:1

2019:2

1,638,167
4.4%

1,712,832
4.4%

1,793,785
5.4%

1,681,109
5.6%

6,825,893
5.0%

1,729,644
5.6%

1,808,493
5.6%

1,904,254
6.2%

1,786,330
6.3%

7,228,721
5.9%

351,156
4.9%

240,128
4.9%

402,373
4.9%

534,976
5.3%

1,528,633
5.0%

369,631
5.3%

252,761
5.3%

423,380
5.2%

558,930
4.5%

1,604,702
5.0%

83,316
7.4%

117,035
6.9%

124,308
6.3%

1,105,216
5.1%

1,429,875
5.5%

88,449
6.2%

123,907
5.9%

130,740
5.2%

1,158,370
4.8%

1,501,465
5.0%

133,856
4.3%

153,238
4.4%

540,138
2.9%

637,197
2.8%

1,464,429
3.1%

138,177
3.2%

158,261
3.3%

558,784
3.5%

662,208
3.9%

1,517,430
3.6%

(222,270)

FY 2018

234,246

11,976

1,716,513
4.6%

1,916,756
4.6%

1,780,329
6.1%

2,918,350
6.0%

2019:3

2019:4

2020:1

2020:2

8,331,947
5.4%
FY 2020

(234,246)

248,652

1,815,300
5.8%

2,026,900
5.7%

1,899,590
6.7%

3,090,074
5.9%

2020:3

2020:4

2021:1

2021:2

FY 2019

14,406
8,831,864
6.0%
FY 2021

1,837,877
6.3%

1,921,669
6.3%

2,004,751
5.3%

1,877,544
5.1%

7,641,841
5.7%

1,931,770
5.1%

2,019,827
5.1%

2,110,924
5.3%

1,977,606
5.3%

8,040,127
5.2%

389,182
5.3%

267,078
5.7%

445,149
5.1%

582,106
4.1%

1,683,515
4.9%

403,122
3.6%

276,611
3.6%

461,558
3.7%

614,568
5.6%

1,755,858
4.3%

96,986
9.7%

134,069
8.2%

135,905
4.0%

1,141,768
-1.4%

1,508,728
0.5%

97,334
0.4%

133,852
-0.2%

140,884
3.7%

1,206,308
5.7%

1,578,378
4.6%

141,676
2.5%

162,922
2.9%

589,155
5.4%

698,031
5.4%

1,591,784
4.9%

149,325
5.4%

171,650
5.4%

605,616
2.8%

714,723
2.4%

1,641,314
3.1%

-248,652

261,267

12,614

-261,267

275,086

13,819

1,933,716
6.5%

2,159,895
6.6%

1,996,651
5.1%

3,164,654
2.4%

9,254,916
4.8%

2,021,633
4.5%

2,258,640
4.6%

2,107,750
5.6%

3,358,846
6.1%

9,746,869
5.3%

Note: "Other" includes kicker and federal pension refunds, as well as July withholding accrued to June.
1
Includes reductions related to credits realized under the Business Energy Tax Credit Program, adjustments for connecting with federal tax law, and increases related to the sunset of tax credits associated
with HB2607.

95

Table B.5 Oregon Corporate Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1

TABLE B.5

OREGON CORPORATE INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS

Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted
2005:3

ADVANCE PAYMENTS
%CHYA

2005:4

2006:1

FY
2006

2006:2

2006:3

2006:4

2007:1

March 2012
2007:2

FY
2007

119,391
29.6%

183,280
27.8%

59,091
46.0%

163,812
12.1%

525,573
24.5%

129,737
8.7%

236,441
29.0%

59,754
1.1%

162,465
-0.8%

588,396
12.0%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

14,985
-9.6%

17,619
7.0%

24,327
20.9%

39,526
-14.0%

96,457
-2.7%

19,718
31.6%

17,154
-2.6%

25,440
4.6%

65,628
66.0%

127,941
32.6%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

16,350
-12.2%

108,723
-16.6%

19,140
25.9%

39,592
17.4%

183,805
-7.1%

22,481
37.5%

199,419
83.4%

38,715
102.3%

49,865
25.9%

310,480
68.9%

TOTAL
%CHYA

118,026
31.1%

92,177
212.4%

64,278
41.6%

163,745
3.4%

438,225
35.6%

126,975
7.6%

54,176
-41.2%

46,478
-27.7%

178,228
8.8%

405,857
-7.4%

2007:3
ADVANCE PAYMENTS
%CHYA

2007:4

2008:1

FY
2008

2008:2

2008:3

2008:4

2009:1

2009:2

FY
2009

133,408
2.8%

205,375
-13.1%

64,256
7.5%

155,284
-4.4%

558,323
-5.1%

100,589
-24.6%

145,285
-29.3%

63,802
-0.7%

97,368
-37.3%

407,044
-27.1%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

23,631
19.8%

45,064
162.7%

35,076
37.9%

52,143
-20.5%

155,912
21.9%

23,501
-0.6%

26,721
-40.7%

22,314
-36.4%

21,822
-58.1%

94,357
-39.5%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

39,623
76.3%

158,106
-20.7%

36,380
-6.0%

39,394
-21.0%

273,503
-11.9%

28,134
-29.0%

124,826
-21.0%

67,471
85.5%

37,218
-5.5%

257,649
-5.8%

TOTAL
%CHYA

117,416
-7.5%

92,333
70.4%

62,951
35.4%

168,032
-5.7%

440,732
8.6%

95,956
-18.3%

47,181
-48.9%

18,645
-70.4%

81,971
-51.2%

243,753
-44.7%

2009:3

2009:4

2010:1

FY
2010

2010:2

2010:3

2010:4

2011:1

2011:2

FY
2011

ADVANCE PAYMENTS
%CHYA

79,579
-20.9%

163,877
12.8%

66,451
4.2%

147,313
51.3%

457,220
12.3%

115,286
44.9%

175,561
7.1%

76,405
15.0%

165,354
12.2%

532,606
16.5%

FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

20,404
-13.2%

24,009
-10.2%

38,412
72.1%

45,714
109.5%

128,539
36.2%

21,781
6.8%

21,206
-11.7%

35,770
-6.9%

40,805
-10.7%

119,562
-7.0%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

29,072
3.3%

137,244
9.9%

40,080
-40.6%

25,774
-30.7%

232,170
-9.9%

23,130
-20.4%

89,877
-34.5%

39,065
-2.5%

31,489
22.2%

183,561
-20.9%

TOTAL
%CHYA

70,910
-26.1%

50,642
7.3%

64,784
247.5%

167,254
104.0%

353,589
45.1%

113,936
60.7%

106,890
111.1%

73,111
12.9%

174,670
4.4%

468,607
32.5%

2011:3
ADVANCE PAYMENTS1
%CHYA
FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA
REFUNDS
%CHYA
1

TOTAL
%CHYA

2011:4

2012:1

FY
2012

2012:2

2012:3

2012:4

2013:1

2013:2

FY
2013

120,766
4.8%

154,290
-12.1%

74,344
-2.7%

163,070
-1.4%

512,470
-3.8%

116,171
-3.8%

159,889
3.6%

75,731
1.9%

176,422
8.2%

528,213
3.1%

19,117
-12.2%

26,841
26.6%

43,141
20.6%

43,405
6.4%

132,503
10.8%

17,744
-7.2%

24,042
-10.4%

37,216
-13.7%

41,109
-5.3%

120,110
-9.4%

34,927
51.0%

91,253
1.5%

61,311
56.9%

45,019
43.0%

232,511
26.7%

47,888
37.1%

96,038
5.2%

62,553
2.0%

41,667
-7.4%

248,145
6.7%

104,955
-7.9%

89,878
-15.9%

56,174
-23.2%

161,456
-7.6%

412,463
-12.0%

86,028
-18.0%

87,893
-2.2%

50,393
-10.3%

175,863
8.9%

400,178
-3.0%

96

TABLE B.5

OREGON CORPORATE INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS

Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted
2013:3

ADVANCE PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

2013:4

2014:1

FY
2014

2014:2

2014:3

2014:4

2015:1

March 2012
2015:2

FY
2015

142,287
22.5%

192,946
20.7%

96,555
27.5%

198,119
12.3%

629,907
19.3%

151,714
6.6%

203,851
5.7%

102,519
6.2%

202,259
2.1%

660,343
4.8%

FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

15,347
-13.5%

26,964
12.2%

42,142
13.2%

47,167
14.7%

131,620
9.6%

22,201
44.7%

31,035
15.1%

47,278
12.2%

51,471
9.1%

151,985
15.5%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

41,153
-14.1%

92,156
-4.0%

58,859
-5.9%

43,092
3.4%

235,261
-5.2%

41,419
0.6%

90,847
-1.4%

58,596
-0.4%

50,432
17.0%

241,293
2.6%

TOTAL1
%CHYA

116,481
35.4%

127,754
45.4%

79,838
58.4%

202,193
15.0%

526,266
31.5%

132,497
13.8%

144,039
12.7%

91,201
14.2%

203,298
0.5%

571,035
8.5%

2015:3
ADVANCE PAYMENTS
%CHYA
FINAL PAYMENTS
%CHYA

REFUNDS
%CHYA
1

TOTAL
%CHYA

2016:1

FY
2016

2016:2

2016:3

2016:4

2017:1

2017:2

FY
2017

149,109
-1.7%

202,205
-0.8%

99,377
-3.1%

202,782
0.3%

653,473
-1.0%

151,511
1.6%

204,818
1.3%

100,594
1.2%

204,541
0.9%

661,465
1.2%

26,442
19.1%

30,013
-3.3%

45,425
-3.9%

49,987
-2.9%

151,867
-0.1%

24,100
-8.9%

28,990
-3.4%

44,633
-1.7%

48,945
-2.1%

146,668
-3.4%

49,871
20.4%

93,285
2.7%

61,422
4.8%

51,458
2.0%

256,037
6.1%

49,609
-0.5%

94,656
1.5%

63,095
2.7%

52,128
1.3%

259,488
1.3%

125,680
-5.1%

138,933
-3.5%

83,380
-8.6%

201,311
-1.0%

549,304
-3.8%

126,002
0.3%

139,153
0.2%

82,132
-1.5%

201,358
0.0%

548,645
-0.1%

2017:3
1

2015:4

2017:4

2018:1

FY
2018

2018:2

2018:3

2018:4

2019:1

2019:2

FY
2019

150,879
-0.4%

204,039
-0.4%

99,645
-0.9%

204,378
-0.1%

658,942
-0.4%

150,647
-0.2%

204,582
0.3%

101,406
1.8%

205,952
0.8%

662,587
0.6%

FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

22,979
-4.7%

28,288
-2.4%

43,759
-2.0%

47,782
-2.4%

142,808
-2.6%

21,937
-4.5%

27,559
-2.6%

43,579
-0.4%

48,376
1.2%

141,451
-1.0%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

50,398
1.6%

96,262
1.7%

64,286
1.9%

52,517
0.7%

263,463
1.5%

50,044
-0.7%

95,016
-1.3%

63,128
-1.8%

51,444
-2.0%

259,632
-1.5%

123,460
-2.0%

136,066
-2.2%

79,117
-3.7%

199,644
-0.9%

538,287
-1.9%

122,539
-0.7%

137,125
0.8%

81,857
3.5%

202,884
1.6%

544,405
1.1%

ADVANCE PAYMENTS
%CHYA

TOTAL
%CHYA

2019:3
ADVANCE PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

2019:4

2020:1

FY
2020

2020:2

2020:3

2020:4

2021:1

2021:2

FY
2021

151,451
0.5%

204,332
-0.1%

102,664
1.2%

206,910
0.5%

665,357
0.4%

154,479
2.0%

206,923
1.3%

105,785
3.0%

210,707
1.8%

677,894
1.9%

FINAL PAYMENTS1
%CHYA

22,809
4.0%

28,850
4.7%

44,795
2.8%

49,762
2.9%

146,215
3.4%

24,377
6.9%

30,993
7.4%

47,212
5.4%

51,985
4.5%

154,567
5.7%

REFUNDS
%CHYA

49,312
-1.5%

94,390
-0.7%

62,110
-1.6%

49,663
-3.5%

255,474
-1.6%

47,250
-4.2%

93,173
-1.3%

60,739
-2.2%

46,795
-5.8%

247,957
-2.9%

TOTAL1
%CHYA

124,948
2.0%

138,792
1.2%

85,349
4.3%

207,009
2.0%

556,098
2.1%

131,606
5.3%

144,743
4.3%

92,258
8.1%

215,897
4.3%

584,504
5.1%

Includes reductions related to credits realized under the Business Energy Tax Credit Program, adjustments for connecting with federal tax law, and increases related to the sunset of tax credits
associated with HB2607.

97

98

37.498
36.496
73.994
35.114
33.619
68.733
32.134
30.186
62.319
28.827
27.530
56.357
26.291
25.108
51.399

2011-12
2012-13
2011-13 Biennium

2013-14
2014-15
2013-15 Biennium

2015-16
2016-17
2015-17 Biennium

2017-18
2018-19
2017-19 Biennium

2019-20
2020-21
2019-21 Biennium
102.464
97.853
200.317

112.348
107.292
219.640

125.234
117.641
242.875

136.847
131.022
267.869

146.141
142.234
288.375

146.676
151.275
297.951

(Measure 44)
(87 cents) 1

4.087
3.903
7.990

4.481
4.280
8.761

4.995
4.692
9.688

5.459
5.226
10.685

5.829
5.673
11.503

5.851
6.034
11.885

Account
(3 cents) 2

Tobacco Use
Reduction

132.842
126.864
259.706

145.656
139.102
284.758

162.363
152.520
314.882

177.419
169.867
347.287

189.469
184.403
373.872

190.043
196.629
386.673

State Total

Cigarette Tax Distribution

Cities,

8.174
7.806
15.980

8.963
8.559
17.522

9.991
9.385
19.376

10.917
10.452
21.370

11.659
11.347
23.005

11.701
12.068
23.769

Counties &
Public Transit 3

141.016
134.670
275.687

154.619
147.661
302.280

172.353
161.904
334.258

188.336
180.320
368.656

201.127
195.750
396.877

201.745
208.697
410.442

Total

38.619
40.086
78.705

35.843
37.205
73.047

33.279
34.531
67.809

30.870
32.004
62.873

28.504
29.757
58.261

19.956
27.372
47.328

State GF

29.796
30.928
60.724

27.654
28.705
56.359

25.676
26.642
52.318

23.817
24.692
48.510

21.992
22.959
44.951

15.532
21.487
37.019

Health Plan
(Measure 44)

Voters approv ed 60 cents per pack tax increase dedicated to the Health Plan, effectiv e Nov ember 1, 2002.

The Health Plan receiv es 41.54% of the rev enue from the other tobacco tax collections. The TURA receiv es 4.62 % of collections. The remainder goes to the General Fund.

4. Measure 44 increased the other tobacco tax es from 35% to 65% of the w holesale price, effectiv e February 1, 1997. House Bill 3433, enacted by the 2001 Legislature, limits this tax to 50 cents per cigar.

3. Cities, Counties and Public Transit each receiv e rev enue from a 2 cent per pack tax . The total amount show n equals the total 6 cents per pack dedicated to these entities.

2. Measure 44 created the TURA and funded it w ith a 3 cents per pack tax effectiv e February 1, 1997.

3.314
3.440
6.754

3.076
3.193
6.268

2.856
2.963
5.819

2.649
2.746
5.395

2.446
2.553
4.999

1.727
2.390
4.117

Reduction
Account 4

Tobacco Use

71.728
74.454
146.182

66.573
69.102
135.675

61.810
64.136
125.946

57.336
59.442
116.778

52.943
55.269
108.212

37.215
51.249
88.464

State Total

March 2012
Other Tobacco Tax Distribution

1. The 1997 Legislature specified that the temporary 10 cent tax be counted as other funds starting July 1, 1997. As a result the Health Plan receiv ed 37 cents per pack as of July 1, 1997. The 10 cent tax has ex pired on January 1, 2004.

37.517
39.320
76.837

Distribution Forecast*
2009-10
2010-11
2009-11 Biennium

State GF
(22 cents) 1

Health Plan

TABLE B.6
Cigarette & Tobacco Tax Distribution (Millions of $)*

Table B.6 Cigarette and Tobacco Tax Distribution 1

Table B.7 Revenue Distribution to Local Governments 1

March 2012

TABLE B.7
Revenue Distribution to Local Governments (Millions of $)
Liquor Apportionment Distribution
Total Liquor
Revenue

General

Mental

Available

Fund (56%)

Health

Cigarette Tax
Distribution to
Cities, Counties &

City Revenue
1

Wine and

Revenue

Beer

Sharing

Regular

Total

Counties

Public Transit

2009-10

171.945

97.322

8.277

0.267

21.025

30.036

51.061

15.018

11.701

2010-11

178.307

101.248

7.980

0.269

21.895

31.278

53.172

15.639

12.068

2009-11 Biennium

350.252

198.570

16.256

0.536

42.920

61.314

104.233

30.657

23.769

2011-12

194.143

110.209

8.222

0.284

24.000

34.285

58.285

17.143

11.659

2012-13

202.067

114.707

8.558

0.296

24.980

35.685

60.664

17.842

11.347

2011-13 Biennium

396.210

224.916

16.780

0.580

48.980

69.970

118.950

34.985

23.005

2013-14

192.895

102.915

8.814

0.305

25.729

36.755

62.484

18.378

10.917

2014-15

198.682

106.002

9.079

0.314

26.501

37.858

64.359

18.929

10.452

2013-15 Biennium

391.578

208.917

17.893

0.619

52.230

74.613

126.843

37.307

21.370

2015-16

204.643

109.182

9.351

0.323

27.296

38.994

66.290

19.497

9.991

2016-17

210.782

112.458

9.632

0.333

28.115

40.163

68.278

20.082

9.385

2015-17 Biennium

415.425

221.640

18.983

0.656

55.411

79.157

134.568

39.579

19.376

2017-18

217.105

115.831

9.920

0.343

28.958

41.368

70.327

20.684

8.963

2018-19

223.618

119.306

10.218

0.353

29.827

42.609

72.436

21.305

8.559

2017-19 Biennium

440.724

235.138

20.138

0.696

58.785

83.978

142.763

41.989

17.522

2019-20

230.327

122.886

10.525

0.364

30.722

43.888

74.609

21.944

8.174

2020-21

237.237

126.572

10.840

0.375

31.643

45.204

76.848

22.602

7.806

2019-21 Biennium

467.564

249.458

21.365

0.739

62.365

89.092

151.457

44.546

15.980

Mental Health Alcoholism and Drug Services Account, per ORS 471.810

For details on cigarette revenues see TABLE B.6 on previous page

99

Table B.8 Track Record for the May 2011 Forecast 1

Table B.8 Track Record for the March 2012 Forecast

(Quarter ending December 31, 2011)

Personal Income Tax

(Millions of dollars)

Forecast Comparison
Actual
Revenues

Latest
Forecast

Year/Year Change
Percent
Difference

Prior
Year

Percent
Change

Withholding
Dollar difference

$1,287.0

$1,275.9
$11.1

0.9%

$1,196.2
$90.8

7.6%

Estimated Payments
Dollar difference

$185.2

$185.2
$0.0

0.0%

$148.6
$36.7

24.7%

Final Payments
Dollar difference

$87.2

$87.8
-$0.6

-0.6%

$81.7
$5.5

6.7%

Refunds
Dollar difference

-$156.3

-$110.4
-$45.9

41.6%

-$151.5
-$4.8

3.1%

$1,403.2

$1,438.5
-$35.3

-2.5%

$1,275.0
$128.2

10.1%

Total Personal Income Tax

Dollar difference

Corporate Income Tax

Forecast Comparison

Year/Year Change

Actual
Revenues
$154.3

Latest
Forecast
$182.4
-$28.1

Percent
Difference
-15.4%

Final Payments
Dollar difference

$26.8

$28.3
-$1.4

-5.0%

$21.2
$5.6

26.6%

Refunds
Dollar difference

-$91.3

-$121.7
$30.5

-25.0%

-$89.9
-$1.4

1.5%

Total Corporate Income Tax

Dollar difference

$89.9

$89.0
$0.9

1.0%

$106.9
-$17.0

-15.9%

(Millions of dollars)
Advanced Payments
Dollar difference

Total Income Tax

(Millions of dollars)
Corporate and Personal Tax

Actual
Revenues

Forecast Comparison
Latest
Forecast

$1,493.1

$1,527.5

Dollar difference

-$34.4

100

Percent
Difference
-2.3%

Prior
Year
$175.6
-$21.3

Percent
Change
-12.1%

Year/Year Change
Prior
Percent
Year
Change
$1,381.9
$111.2

8.0%

8.005

Admin. Savings

101
3.600

3.681

0.000

0.000

0.000

(5.338)

(6.405)

0.000

(35.584)

0.000

(35.583)

(0.000)

(3.355)

(35.583)

0.005

(30.178)

(5.411)

(4.351)

(23.841)

0.000 (755.668)
(2.143) (767.411)

0.000

0.000

0.000

(0.974)

(1.169)

0.000

(6.494)

0.000

(6.494)

0.000

3.139

(6.494)

0.005

(9.489)

2.989

443.224

272.600
724.290

3.648

11.655

11.655

174.827

209.792

40.112

1,167.514

2.000

1,165.514

0.000

1,165.514

0.000

1,044.693

120.821

Current
Forecast

2013-15

(15.028)

0.000
(9.561)

0.000

(0.246)

(0.246)

(3.688)

(4.426)

(0.955)

(24.588)

0.000

(24.588)

0.000

(24.588)

0.000

(24.864)

0.275

Change from
Dec-11

526.214

250.500
740.928

3.648

12.651

12.651

189.771

227.726

43.980

1,267.142

2.000

1,265.142

0.000

1,265.142

0.000

1,145.415

119.727

Current
Forecast

2015-17

(23.206)

0.000
740.928

0.000

(0.379)

(0.379)

(5.692)

(6.830)

(1.459)

(37.947)

0.000

(37.947)

0.000

(37.947)

0.000

(37.996)

0.049

Change from
Dec-11

6. Includes Debt Serv ice Allocations, Allocations to State School Fund and Other Agency Allocations

5. One percent of net lottery proceeds are dedicated to Collegiate Athletics and Gambling Addiction programs, respectiv ely . Certain limits are imposed by HB 5035 for 2011-13.

4. The Parks and Natural Resources Fund Constitutional amendment requires 15% of net proceeds be transferred to this fund.

598.491

250.500
786.881

3.648

13.834

13.834

207.506

249.007

48.553

1,385.372

2.000

1,383.372

0.000

1,383.372

0.000

1,264.548

118.824

Current
Forecast

2017-19

3. Eighteen percent of proceeds accrue to the Ed. Stability Fund, until the balance equals 5% of GF Rev enues. Thereafter, 15% of proceeds accrue to the Oregon Capital Matching Account.

2. Includes interest earnings on Economic Dev elopment Fund and rev ersions.

1. Includes planned raffles throughout the forecast period.

Note: Some totals may not foot due to rounding.

Ending Balance/Discretionary Resources

670.625
1,091.737

10.973

Gambling Addiction 5

County Fairs

Other Legilatively Adopted Allocations6

Total Distributions

8.826

163.907

Parks and Natural Resources Fund4

OUS Sports Lottery Account 5

37.119
196.688

County Economic Development

1,095.418

2.461

1,092.712

0.245

Education Stability Fund 3

ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

Total Available Resources

Other Resources2

Transfers from Lottery

Beginning Balance

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FUND

1,092.712

961.612

Video Lottery

Total Available to Transfer

123.095

Current Change from Change

Forecast
Dec-11
from LAB

2011-13

Traditional Lottery1

(in millions of dollars)

LOTTERY EARNINGS

Date: 02/07/2012

TABLE B.9
Summary of Lottery Resources

(27.139)

0.000
786.881

0.000

(0.444)

(0.444)

(6.655)

(7.986)

(1.699)

(44.367)

0.000

(44.367)

0.000

(44.367)

0.000

(44.249)

(0.118)

Change from
Dec-11

683.645

250.500
840.988

3.648

15.226

15.226

228.395

274.074

53.918

1,524.632

2.000

1,522.632

0.000

1,522.632

0.000

1,404.283

118.350

Current
Forecast

2019-21

(30.130)

0.000
840.988

0.000

(0.493)

(0.493)

(7.388)

(8.866)

(1.887)

(49.256)

0.000

(49.256)

0.000

(49.256)

0.000

(49.139)

(0.117)

Change from
Dec-11

Mar 2012 Forecast

Table B.9 Summary of Lottery Resources 1

Table B.10 Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook 1

March 2012

Table B.10: Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook

Rainy Day Fund

(Millions)

Beginning Balance

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15

2015-17

2017-19

2019-21

$0.0

$112.5

$10.4

$46.1

$245.5

$487.8

$781.0

Interest Earnings

$18.3

$1.3

$0.4

$1.9

$24.4

$57.4

$87.0

Deposits1

$94.3

-$103.4

$35.2

$197.5

$217.9

$235.8

$257.1

$112.5

$10.4

$46.1

$245.5

$487.8

$781.0

$1,125.1

Ending Balance

Education Stability Fund3

(Millions)

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15

2015-17

2017-19

2019-21

Beginning Balance

$178.9

$0.0

$5.1

$9.8

$209.1

$425.5

$669.4

Interest Earnings 4

$17.2

$1.0

$0.4

$1.4

$21.0

$48.6

$72.3

-$178.9

$101.4

$187.0

$199.3

$216.3

$244.0

$233.2

-$17.1
-$12.8
-$4.3
$0.0

-$97.4
-$0.7
-$0.2
-$96.4

-$182.7
-$0.3
-$0.1
-$182.2

-$1.4
-$1.0
-$0.3
$0.0

-$21.0
-$15.8
-$5.3
$0.0

-$48.6
-$36.4
-$12.1
$0.0

-$72.3
-$54.2
-$18.1
$0.0

$0.0

$5.1

$9.8

$209.1

$425.5

$669.4

$902.7

Deposits5
Distributions
Oregon Education Fund
State Scholarship Commission
Withdrawals
Ending Balance

Total Reserves
(Millions)

Ending Balances
Percent of GF Revenues

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15

2015-17

2017-19

2019-21

$112.6

$15.5

$55.9

$454.6

$913.2

$1,450.4

$2,027.7

1.0%

0.1%

0.4%

2.9%

5.2%

7.5%

9.5%

Footnotes:
1. Includes transfer of ending General Fund balances, up to 1% of budgeted appropriations, as w ell as priv ate donations. Assumes future appropriations equal to 98.75 percent
of av ailable resources. Starting w ith 2013-15, projected corporate income tax es abov e the rate of 6.6% for the biennium are deposited on or before June 30 of each oddnumbered y ear.
2. Av ailable funds in a giv en biennium equal 2/3rds of the beginning balance under current law .
3. Ex cludes funds in the Oregon Grow th and the Oregon Resource and Technology Dev elopment subaccounts.
4. Interest earnings are distributed to the Oregon Education Funds (75%) and the State Scholarship Fund (25%).
5. Contributions to the ESF are capped at 5% of the prior biennium's General Fund rev enue total. Quarterly contributions are made until the balance ex ceeds the cap.
Includes w ithdraw als of $393.8 million in FY 2008-09 and a future w ithdraw al of $84.3 million in FY 2010-11 for the State School Fund. For FY 2011-12, includes a
w ithdraw al of $100 million to the 2011-12 School Year Subaccount.

102