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IDC OPINION
The relational database management systems (RDBMS) market showed fairly strong growth in 2006, and is likely to finish in the double digits in 2007. Most of the top 10 vendors are benefiting from this surge. What's behind it? Is it sustainable? While exegetical factors such as international uncertainty, a slowing economy, and other threats to the health of businesses may conspire to interrupt this expansion, it seems that setting these factors aside: ! The RDBMS market shows signs of sustained high growth. ! Interest in RDBMS seems to be fueled by increasing interest in high availability, disaster recovery, and better-quality data. ! Maturing concepts of enterprise governance have also helped drive data governance, and boosted adoption of initiatives such as master data management. ! The desire for more, better, business intelligence, including "real time" analytic data, are also helping to drive interest in RDBMS.
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Filing Information: December 2007, IDC #209965, Volume: 1, Tab: Markets Information Management and Data Integration Software: Competitive Analysis
IN THIS STUDY
This study considers the apparent performance of the relational database management systems (RDBMS) market in 2007, and provides detailed analysis of the license revenue underlying the RDBMS market results for 2006 as they were reported in Worldwide Database Management Systems 20072011 Forecast and 2006 Vendor Shares (IDC #209611, November 2007). It contains a detailed examination of the performance of the top 10 RDBMS vendors in relation to their market as a whole. It also contains competitive analysis of those vendors, including their performance in terms of license revenue by platform for each of the following major operating environments: ! Unix ! Microsoft Windows (32 and 64 bit) ! Linux ! Mainframe Please note that, unlike other documents in this service that report revenue for all major vendors in the market and report in terms of total software revenue, which blends license and license maintenance revenue together, this study separates license revenue from maintenance revenue and reports them by operating environment.
Methodology
Total Packaged Software Revenue
The IDC software market sizing and forecasts are presented in terms of "packaged software revenue." Packaged software is defined as programs or codesets of any type commercially available through sale, lease, or rental, or as a service. Packaged software revenue typically includes fees for initial and continued right-to-use packaged software licenses. These fees may include, as part of the license contract, access to product support and/or other services that are inseparable from the right-touse license fee structure, or this support may be priced separately as software maintenance. Upgrades may be included in the continuing right of use or may be priced separately. Packaged software revenue excludes service revenue derived from training, consulting, and systems integration that is separate (or unbundled) from the right-touse license but includes the implicit value of software included in a service that offers software functionality by a different pricing scheme (e.g., the implicit or stated value of software included in an application service provider's [ASP's] or other hosted software arrangement). It is the total packaged software revenue that is further allocated to markets, geographic areas, and operating environments.
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! IDC demand-side research (This includes thousands of interviews annually and provides a powerful fifth perspective for assessing competitive performance. IDC's user strategy databases offer a compelling and consistent time-series view of industry trends and developments. Direct conversations with technology buyers provide an invaluable complement to the broader survey-based results.) ! Additional insights regarding the individual top 10 RDBMS vendors, derived from information afforded by personal contact and through further examination of financial reports and presentations through November 2007 To acquire license revenue and platform breakdown data, additional survey and modeling work was required.
Disclaimers
Ultimately, the data presented herein represents IDC's best estimates based on the above data sources as well as reported and observed activity by vendor and further modeling of data that we believe to be true to fill in any information gaps. In addition, please note the following: ! The information contained in this study was derived from the IDC Software Market database as of October 2007. ! All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding. ! For more information on IDC's software definitions, see IDC's Software Taxonomy, 2007 (IDC #205437, February 2007).
Executive Summary
So far in 2007, the RDBMS market has shown signs of continued growth, possibly in the double digits. The top 10 vendors have attributed strong growth this past year to the sectors of their businesses that include, or in some cases are dominated by, RDBMS. In 2006 license revenue for the worldwide RDBMS market grew by 13.8% to $9.7 billion, with the growth mainly driven by the top 3 RDBMS vendors, though the full texture of the RDBMS market requires examination of the top 10. In 2006 license growth was propelled by an increasing use of RDBMS for distributed data management, failover standby databases, and a strong increase in the use of database applications within the small and medium-sized (SMB) segment of the market.
In 2006 license revenue for the worldwide RDBMS market grew by 13.8% to $9.7 billion, with the growth mainly driven by the top 3 RDBMS vendors, though the full texture of the RDBMS market requires examination of the top 10.
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SITUATION OVERVIEW
2007 in Review
Although 2007 has not yet ended, enough information is available to make some general assertions regarding the year and how it is likely to close. Both Oracle and Microsoft have indicated strong RDBMS growth throughout the year. While it is difficult to be precise until the final figures are in and have been analyzed, it seems clear that both vendors have enjoyed a good year in this market, and will probably post double-digit growth figures. Sybase has also indicated surprisingly strong growth in 2007, and IBM has reported steady increases in this market. All of these factors seem to suggest a general growth trend in 2007 that is benefiting all the leading vendors. Oracle and Microsoft are both growing in the SMB segment. Oracle, IBM, Sybase, and Microsoft are finding new markets in developing regions, especially in Asia/Pacific. Most of the growth for the top vendors has come from sales to existing clients. Often, these customers are expanding database capacity, buying optional enhancements, or acquiring licenses for standby servers.
While it is difficult to be precise until the final figures are in and have been analyzed, it seems clear that both vendors have enjoyed a good year in this market, and will probably post doubledigit growth figures.
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T ABLE 1
Worldwide RDBMS Product Revenue by Top 10 Vendor and Operating Environment, 2006
Linux/Open Source Systems Total License Revenue Total Software Revenue
Unix Revenue ($M) Oracle Corp. IBM Microsoft Sybase NCR Teradata Progress Software SAS Institute Fujitsu Hitachi HP Other Total 1,315.8 537.0 87.0 280.7 68.3 33.9 41.0 15.0 93.1 2,471.8
Windows NT
Mainframe Systems
Maintenance
1,128.1 497.1 2,543.2 73.4 15.5 73.9 80.8 26.8 3.4 178.9 4,621.2
3,211.0 2,374.5 2,543.2 202.0 296.2 155.2 201.2 143.0 44.9 45.8 513.4 9,730.4
4,028.8 1,108.5 508.6 387.1 143.0 82.3 41.9 53.4 22.0 5.1 325.2 6,706.0
7,239.8 3,483.0 3,051.9 589.1 439.2 237.5 243.1 196.4 66.9 50.9 838.6 16,436.3
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T ABLE 1
Worldwide RDBMS Product Revenue by Top 10 Vendor and Operating Environment, 2006
Linux/Open Source Systems Total License Revenue Total Software Revenue
Unix Share (%) Oracle Corp. IBM Microsoft Sybase NCR Teradata Progress Software SAS Institute Fujitsu Hitachi HP Other Total Category share of total software (%) Operating environment share of license total (%)
Source: IDC, 2007
Windows NT
Mainframe Systems
Maintenance
53.2 21.7 3.5 11.4 2.8 1.4 1.7 0.6 3.8 100.0 15.0
24.4 10.8 55.0 1.6 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.9 100.0 28.1
76.3 17.3 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 100.0 5.9
33.0 24.4 26.1 2.1 3.0 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.5 5.3 100.0 59.2
60.1 16.5 7.6 5.8 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.9 100.0 40.8
44.0 21.2 18.6 3.6 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.1 100.0 100.0
25.4
47.5
10.0
0.1
11.9
5.2
100.0
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T ABLE 2
Worldwide RDBMS Software License Revenue by Top 10 Vendor, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Oracle Corp. Microsoft IBM NCR Teradata Sybase SAS Institute Progress Software Fujitsu HP Hitachi Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 3,211.0 2,543.2 2,374.5 296.2 202.0 201.2 155.2 143.0 45.8 44.9 513.4 9,730.4 20052006 Growth (%) 15.3 19.8 12.6 6.0 16.0 -4.2 3.0 2.5 -10.1 -9.7 7.6 13.8
Share (%) 32.6 24.8 24.7 3.3 2.0 2.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.6 5.6 100.0
Share (%) 33.0 26.1 24.4 3.0 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.5 5.3 100.0
2,785.8 2,123.0 2,107.9 279.4 174.1 210.0 150.7 139.4 51.0 49.7 477.2 8,548.3
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T ABLE 3
Worldwide RDBMS Software License Revenue by Operating Environment, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Windows NT Unix Mainframe systems Linux/open source systems Other server systems Other entry systems Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 4,621.2 2,471.8 1,156.4 970.6 503.2 7.2 9,730.4 20052006 Growth (%) 16.5 8.8 7.0 32.3 3.3 10.2 13.8
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FIGURE 1
Worldwide RDBMS Software License Revenue Share by Operating Environment, 2005 and 2006
2005
Other (5.8%) Linux (8.6%) Mainframe (12.6%)
Windows (46.4%)
Unix (26.6%)
Windows (47.5%)
Unix (25.4%)
Total = $9.73B
Source: IDC, 2007
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T ABLE 4
Worldwide Unix RDBMS License Revenue by Vendor, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Oracle Corp. IBM NCR Teradata Sybase Progress Software Fujitsu SAS Institute Hitachi Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 1,315.8 537.0 280.7 87.0 68.3 41.0 33.9 15.0 93.1 2,471.8 20052006 Growth (%) 8.8 15.9 6.1 8.8 6.5 2.5 -16.4 -12.8 -0.1 8.8
Share (%) 53.2 20.4 11.6 3.5 2.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 4.1 100.0
Share (%) 53.2 21.7 11.4 3.5 2.8 1.7 1.4 0.6 3.8 100.0
1,209.8 463.3 264.6 80.0 64.1 40.0 40.5 17.2 93.1 2,272.8
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T ABLE 5
Worldwide Unix RDBMS License Revenue by Software Platform, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Solaris AIX/6000 HP-UX NCR SVR4 Compaq Unix PC-Unix Sequent Dynix DG-UX Pyramid Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 759.4 619.0 542.6 299.2 100.8 27.3 29.0 13.0 9.2 72.4 2,471.8 20052006 Growth (%) 10.4 9.4 9.6 6.1 6.3 6.1 7.9 6.8 2.3 -1.3 8.8
Share (%) 30.3 24.9 21.8 12.4 4.2 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 3.2 100.0
Share (%) 30.7 25.0 22.0 12.1 4.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 2.9 100.0
688.0 566.0 494.9 282.0 94.8 25.7 26.9 12.2 9.0 73.3 2,272.8
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T ABLE 6
Worldwide 32- and 64-Bit Windows RDBMS License Revenue by Vendor, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Microsoft Oracle Corp. IBM SAS Institute Progress Software Sybase Fujitsu NCR Teradata Hitachi Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 2,543.2 1,128.1 497.1 80.8 73.9 73.4 26.8 15.5 3.4 178.9 4,621.2 20052006 Growth (%) 19.8 14.0 16.1 -1.8 0.4 21.3 2.5 5.0 -15.9 8.4 16.5
Share (%) 53.5 24.9 10.8 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.2 100.0
Share (%) 55.0 24.4 10.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.9 100.0
2,123.0 989.5 428.0 82.3 73.6 60.5 26.1 14.8 4.1 165.1 3,967.1
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T ABLE 7
Worldwide Linux/OSS RDBMS License Revenue by Vendor, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) Oracle Corp. IBM Sybase Progress Software Fujitsu SAS Institute Hitachi Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 741.0 168.0 38.5 11.6 4.4 3.4 1.5 2.3 970.6 20052006 Growth (%) 33.0 35.5 24.4 0.4 2.5 60.2 -6.9 10.5 32.3
Share (%) 75.9 16.9 4.2 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 100.0
Share (%) 76.3 17.3 4.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 100.0
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T ABLE 8
Worldwide Mainframe RDBMS License Revenue by Vendor, 2005 and 2006
2005 Revenue ($M) IBM SAS Institute Fujitsu Hitachi Oracle Corp. Other Total
Source: IDC, 2007
2006 Revenue ($M) 971.8 77.5 70.7 25.0 6.1 5.4 1,156.4 20052006 Growth (%) 8.4 0.8 2.5 -6.9 -13.0 7.2 7.0
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Vendor Profiles
Each of the major vendors has built, or is building, capabilities into its RDBMSs that support such things as "native" XML support and more extensible unstructured data, including content and support (with search), and they are at various stages of sophistication in terms of deployment technology that ensures self-managing, highly scalable, and rapidly recovering databases. What follows is a discussion of key distinctions in their RDBMS product marketing strategies.
Oracle
Oracle continues to enjoy not only market dominance but also continued growth in this market. This growth is due in no small measure to the success of the various branded and priced options that provide better recoverability, security, and efficiency in the database. The company has also enjoyed growth in the SMB space due to the success of the Express Edition and its corresponding push through channel partners. Although this segment is a fairly small part of Oracle's business today, it represents significant growth opportunity for Oracle in the future. Oracle is also growing business through the embedded channel by focusing on ISV and OEM partners that embed Oracle Database in their products. Oracle hopes to also grow sales by geographic expansion, and by leveraging customer relationships built through the range of applications that Oracle offers.
This growth is due in no small measure to the success of the various branded and priced options that provide better recoverability, security, and efficiency in the database.
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IBM
IBM remains the second largest RDBMS vendor mainly due to its substantial mainframe DB2 sales. Despite various "experts" prognosticating to the contrary, IBM has not only maintained this business but steadily grown it. What is less well known among RDBMS market observers is that much of IBM's growth in this market may be attributed to the success of Informix Dynamic Server (IDS). This RDBMS, which many had thought just a stepping stone to IBM's acquiring customers for the distributed system version of DB2, has turned out be quite a growth engine, despite very little promotion by IBM itself. IDS customers, the ISV community that offers products for it, and the many consultants who support it, have been "under the radar" of evangelists for the product, not just ensuring a stable customer base but winning over new customers as well. IBM also derives RDBMS revenue from UniVerse and UniData, the so-called U2 products, which were also acquired with the Informix database technology.
What is less well known among RDBMS market observers is that much of IBM's growth in this market may be attributed to the success of Informix Dynamic Server (IDS).
Microsoft
Microsoft SQL Server has shown the most consistently robust growth of all the top 10 vendors over the past five-year period. This product is not only a profit center in its own right but a key element of Microsoft's strategy to achieve greater strategic significance in the enterprise IT environment. Since the introduction of SQL Server 2005, this strategy seems to have been working, as the mix of SQL Server customers appears to be shifting from an SMB-focused group to one that includes more large enterprises, and more significant IT roles within those enterprises.
Sybase
Sybase has enjoyed surprising growth in 2006 and so far in 2007. Some of this growth can be attributed to a surge of maintenance renewals and license upgrades that accompanied the release of ASE 15 in August of 2005. Some of this growth is also due to the sudden popularity of Sybase IQ, which is a product that is designed specifically to provide good performance for complex queries. Growth of SQL Anywhere, with its various related mobility products, has made a measurable contribution to the overall total as well.
Some of this growth is also due to the sudden popularity of Sybase IQ, which is a product that is designed specifically to provide good performance for complex queries.
Teradata
Despite the expectations held by some that Teradata's business would decline in the face of competition from the big 3 RDBMS vendors and from neophyte data warehouse appliance vendors like Netezza, Teradata continues to grow and compete effectively with the larger vendors in this market. High user satisfaction, a wide range of tools and partners, and a continuing surge in demand for data warehousing have helped fuel this growth. Although listed as NCR Teradata in the tables of this study because they reflect the situation in 2006, Teradata became independent of NCR in 2007.
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Progress Software
Progress sells its OpenEdge RDBMS as part of the OpenEdge Platform, a suite of development and deployment software used by ISVs to develop and deploy their applications. Progress has a long history in this space, and grows as its clients grow.
SAS Institute
SAS sells its RDBMS both stand-alone and as part of various configurations of its various platform product suites. Originally, these focused on data warehousing and business intelligence, but they now include data integration and packages focused on specific vertical industries. Like Teradata, SAS has benefited from continued growth in the area of data warehousing.
Fujitsu
Fujitsu derives most of its revenue from an RDBMS that comes as part of a software bundle on Fujitsu mainframes, which are sold almost exclusively in Japan. This is pretty much a legacy business.
Hitachi
Hitachi also derives most of its revenue from a legacy RDBMS on its Japanese mainframes. Hitachi has been looking to get into the embedded RDBMS space with a very-small-footprint RDBMS called Entier, but it seems this technology has not yet taken off.
HP
HP derives its RDBMS revenue from NonStop SQL, an RDBMS that is part of the fault-tolerant computer system called NonStop that came from Tandem, which had been acquired by Compaq before Compaq was, in turn, acquired by HP.
ESSENTIAL GUIDANCE
The strongest drivers for growth in the RDBMS market appear to be the desire for more comprehensive data, the need for assured data availability, and the expansion of the role of business intelligence to the operational level. There has also been strong growth in the SMB segment, in developing geographic regions, and in the embedded channel. Going forward, market observers can expect the following: ! A pitched battle among the top 3 vendors for the hearts and minds of the SMB segment ! Growth in the area of information appliances, with vendors such as IBM and Oracle offering competition to neophytes such as Netezza ! Alliances between RDBMS vendors and data integration vendors, and in some cases acquisitions, that will help create comprehensive information platforms
There has also been strong growth in the SMB segment, in developing geographic regions, and in the embedded channel.
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Published Under Services: Information Management and Data Integration Software; Database Management Systems and Tools
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