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Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Unquenchable thirst for land
The 2H11 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme draws to a close today. Tender for the last site closed at noon. The residential site is located next to the decades-old Bedok Court at Bedok South Avenue 3 and is the first land parcel in Tanah Merah to be released for sale after Optima was sold in September 2008. There does not seem to be any let-up in demand for residential land with every site sale under the 2H11 GLS programme garnering at least three bids, and as many as 22 bids for some. It also attracted two of Malaysias largest developers, SP Setia and IOI Corp. Both succeeded in their bid for a piece of the action. A total of 8,115 units are expected to be built on the 2H11 GLS sites by 2015, adding about 2.5% to the existing supply of 345,857 units, including completed and known supply in the pipeline. Ranked by unit price, the priciest was a site at Jervois Road in Tanglin, which was sold to Singapore Land for $880.7 psf ppr. The prime site saw an overwhelming response 18 bids in all, a participation rate last seen for a Bishan site, now Sky Habitat by CapitaLand. At the other end of the scale, the cheapest was a site in Sengkang, which was sold to Allgreen for $291.4 psf ppr, now Riversails. Both projects have yet to launch although on-site construction has started. We will look at these two projects more closely in the following pages. Separately, a mixed site at Bukit Panjang fetched a high bid from Sim Lian Group, presumably encouraged by the brisk take-up of Bedok Residences that was launched a week before the tender closed. Subsequent launches, The Hillier and Watertown, proved that such mixed developments are in high demand. Executive Condominium (EC) sites received keen interest, with eight bids for the Yishun site and 11 for that in Pasir Ris. Top bids remained in the expected range of $280-320 psf ppr. There was little developer interest for office sites. The sale of an office plot in Paya Lebar was called off due to the sole bid being lower than the undisclosed reserve price. Retail sites, however, were in demand. One such site in Sengkang received 12 bids. The top bid of $1,156 psf ppr was a lot more bullish than the market had expected and was submitted by a joint venture between Singapore Press Holdings and United Engineers. As a comparison, GLS sites that had breached the $1,000 psf ppr mark included ION Orchard / Orchard Residences, Asia Square Tower 1, GuocoLands Tanjong Pagar white site and CapitaLands Jurong Gateway white site.
2H11 Government Land Sales (GLS) sites Date sold Sep-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jan-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Location Upper Serangoon Road Jln Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Rise Flora Drive Yishun Avenue 7 / Canberra Drive Sims Avenue / Tanjong Katong Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains Yishun Avenue 1 / Miltonia Close Chestnut Avenue Jelebu Road / Petir Road Punggol Central / Punggol Place Alexandra Road Chestnut Avenue Mount Vernon Road Sengkang West Avenue Kovan Road / Simon Road Jalan Lempeng Jervois Road Bedok South Avenue 3 Type Residential Residential Residential EC Residential Commercial EC Residential Residential Residential Mixed Residential Residential Residential Commercial Residential Residential Residential Residential GFA (sq ft) 927,553 390,475 419,902 451,324 730,701 935,585 654,110 382,014 422,692 612,084 581,882 524,939 138,203 784,039 283,856 384,146 735,927 135,002 647,498 Total Est. units 860 355 390 415 725 610 355 380 340 540 545 35 785 360 685 140 595 8,115 No. of bids 3 13 11 8 8 1 5 8 12 10 13 7 22 5 12 11 8 18 7 Top bid ($m) ($psf) 270.3 291.4 141.0 361.0 122.2 163.0 213.8 529.3 218.9 138.9 180.0 492.9 206.2 396.0 70.8 388.1 328.0 194.6 408.0 118.9 345.9 291.1 361.2 292.6 565.7 334.6 363.6 425.8 805.3 354.4 754.4 512.5 495.0 1,155.5 506.6 554.4 880.7 534.2 Developer Allgreen Hoi Hup / Sunway EVIA / UE / Ho Lee / GPS Koh Brothers MCC Land REJECTED Qingjian TG Development SP Setia Sim Lian Wee Hur CDL / Hong Leong SCB Terraform CDL / Hong Leong SPH / UE Hoi Hup-led consortium IOI Corp SingLand Far East / Frasers / Sekisui House
9 February 2012
Jervois Road
The 99-year District 10 site is located next to the Chatsworth Park good class bungalow area. It measures 96,423 sq ft and can yield about 140 homes. The GLS programme generally lacks sites in the prime districts of 9 to 11. The last time a sale occurred was in 2007 when a land parcel at Handy Road was sold to Allgreen for $669 psf ppr. Suites at Orchard now sits on that site.
GLS sites in districts 9, 10 and 11 Date sold Nov-04 Dec-05 Jul-06 Mar-07 Project The Luxe The Orchard Residences Soleil @ Sinaran Suites at Orchard Type Residential Mixed Residential Residential GFA (sq ft) 35,607 1,353,315 469,730 108,076 No. of units 15 175 417 118 Top bid ($m) ($psf) 12.3 345.4 1,380.0 1,019.7 238.0 506.7 72.3 669.0 Developer JBE Properties CapitaLand Frasers Allgreen
Singapore Land has revealed that it is looking to develop a project comprising 7-8 strata landed units on the triangular end of the site and 130-140 apartments on the more regular-shaped end of the plot. We expect its breakeven to be around $1,335 psf.
Estimated breakeven and nearby property prices Cost component Land Construction Financing Admin and marketing Total development cost Breakeven ($psf)
Source: URA, Maybank KE
Nearby projects Jervois Lodge (TOP 97) Dormer Park (TOP 93) Jervois Regency (TOP 03)
9 February 2012
Page 2 of 8
The site is located in Sengkang, surrounded by a number of new launches within a 500m radius. These include four projects that are currently selling Parklane Residences (DBSS), Austville Residences (EC), Boathouse Residences and Riversound Residence. In addition, the EC site next to Boathouse Residences is now up for sale. Including this EC site, there are a total of nearly 3,700 units within a radius of 500m. However, the low breakeven of Riversails vis--vis nearby projects is probably a comfort for the developer.
Nearby GLS sites sold Date sold May-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Project Austville Residences Boathouse Residences Parklane Residences Riversound Residence Type EC Residential DBSS Residential GFA (sq ft) 549,006 489,773 753,480 631,283 No. of units 540 493 680 590 Top bid ($m) ($psf) 176.0 320.6 156.8 320.1 155.2 206.0 247.0 391.3 Developer UE/Lee Metal Frasers/Far East Low Keng Huat Qingdao
Estimated breakeven and nearby property prices Cost component Land Construction Financing Admin and marketing Total development cost Breakeven ($psf)
Source: URA, Maybank KE
9 February 2012
Page 3 of 8
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project Valley Park Costa Del Sol Lakeside Tower Cashew Park Condo Newton One Dover Parkview Arthur 118 Yewtee Residences Mandarin Garden The Suites At Central Flame Tree Park The Sensoria Trellis Towers Euphony Gardens Ocean Park Goodwood Gardens East Meadows Laguna Green Cashew Park Condo Regent Heights Rivergate The Maylea Bedok Court Seletaris Balestier Plaza Bayshore Park Marymount View Springdale Condo Amaryllis Ville Eng Hoon Mansions Palm Haven Four Seasons Park Merawoods Spottiswoode Park
Source: URA
9 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Size (sq m) 103 122 184 169 113 111 93 110 77 136 148 191 138 194 303 100 113 118 127 109 171 90 224 132 93 87 163 86 89 148 141 267 98 79
Price ($psf) 1443 1256 519 880 1750 699 1259 903 905 2165 1000 827 1192 532 1165 1672 863 920 768 707 1956 1218 655 704 942 913 945 994 1388 879 835 2470 823 882
Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)
Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.96 CityDev 10.87 Ho Bee 1.205 HPL 1.94 KepLand 3.06 SC Global 1.125 SingLand 6.01 UOL 4.67 Wheelock 1.64 Wing Tai 1.285 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.01 -26% 3.18 12.5 -13% 7.31 2.53 -52% 2.22 4.39 -56% 2.7 5.08 -40% 2.78 3.49 -68% 1.6 9.82 -39% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.79 -54% 2.49 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -7% 49% -46% -28% 10% -30% -44% -27% -30% -48%
9 February 2012
Page 4 of 8
MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 97.8 92.8 19.5 84.0 63.3 34.7 51.3 95.5 69.0 89.3 65.1 85.0 53.6 100.0 81.3 31.5 93.8 49.4 90.9 75.0 47.1 80.1 43.5 84.5 75.1 17.9 40.5 74.1 71.5 50.0 78.1 68.6 80.4 52.1 66.7 39.4 99.6 50.5 78.2 19.3 71.9 76.9 80.7 Units sold (Dec) 4 4 16 4 4 22 20 6 3 25 12 10 5 3 28 16 13 3 3 3 61 18 7 5 4 103 30 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 28 84 10 8 3
Media n
9 February 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
($psf) 850 1,391 3,364 1,191 2,608 1,476 1,149 1,826 1,587 1,137 1,100 1,272 1,531 1,317 1,362 1,448 1,147 1,361 1,527 1,405 901 739 1,179 881 971 1,118 1,328 708 923 805 1,463 965 1,092 1,233 796 1,037 885 1,330 707 882 1,595 1,033 842 District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Nov11 1,406 1,789 1,175 972 1,040 744 879 778 757 $psf Dec11 1,486 1,735 1,175 1030 1,049 795 923 813 836 MoM % Change 5.7 -3.0 0.0 6.0 0.9 6.9 5.0 4.5 10.4
City & Southwest (1-8) Studios @ Marne 46 45 Ascentia Sky 373 346 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 45 The Vue 50 42 Goodwood Residences 210 133 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 43 Prime Residence 39 20 Floridian 336 321 Suites at Bukit Timah 71 49 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Residences 88 28 25 Central Imperial 63 41 EuHabitat 748 636 Studio8 28 15 D'Weave 71 71 East Coast (15-16) Bedok Residences 583 474 The Seawind 222 70 Waterfront Isle 561 526 Flamingo Valley 393 194 Silversea 383 348 448@East Coast 28 21 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 420 Arc at Tampines EC 574 460 My Manhattan 301 131 Waterview 696 588 Seastrand 473 355 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Archipelago 577 103 Cardiff Residences 163 66 Austville Residences EC 540 400 The Minton 1145 819 Parc Vera 452 226 Centro Residences 329 257 Boathouse Residences 493 338 Terrasse 414 333 Thomson Grand 361 188 Hillsgrove 12 8 The Luxurie 622 245 Kovan Residences 521 519 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 50 West (22-24) Blossom Residences EC 602 471 North (25-28) The Nautical 435 84 Luxus Hills 320 230 Woodhaven 337 259 Miltonia Residences 410 331 Source: URA
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Nov11 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.6 $psf pm Dec11 4.7 4.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 MoM % Change -2.1 4.8 0.0 3.4 -3.0 0.0 3.2 -9.7 -3.8
9 February 2012
Page 5 of 8
DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
9 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 24 472 1,517 605 147 702 785 466 129 207 6,390 68 620 293 307 234 94 377 9 2,002 343 39 1,256 55 150 109 509 140 2,601 110 357 467 34 474 508 188 80 248 147 88 20 771 75 84 159
City Dev
Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22
CapitaLand
3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
99yr 99yr
UOL
2 16
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 12 12 21
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
9 February 2012
Page 6 of 8
9 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 61 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,547 249 199 35 118 380 155 1 992 691 121 2,941 27 64 38 42 157 35 285 648 70 65 580 81 796 35 208 23 50 31 347 20,095
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Punggol GLS site (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
10 15 17 19
NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total
Source:HDB,URA
9 February 2012
Page 7 of 8
Stephanie Wong C O
9 February 2012