Are Caribbean countries facing existential threats?

Norman Girvan
The hurricanes of the last few weeks in the Caribbean have reinforced in my mind a growing sense that Caribbean states may be more and more facing a challenge of existential threats. (I prefer this idea to the discourse of failed states, which I find rather obnoxious and patronising; being associated with a political agenda of humanitarian interventionism and the contemporary incarnation of the doctrine of imperial responsibility.) By existential threats I mean systemic challenges to the viability of our states as functioning socio-economic-ecological-political systems; due to the intersection of climatic, economic, social and political developments. On Saturday 30 October the entire banana crop of St Vincent, the main export industry, was wiped out in the space of one afternoon. St Lucia and Barbados also suffered major economic damage; Tobago and Dominica were also affected. At the time of writing this, the weather system responsible is expected eventually to veer northwards and deal what will be another lethal blow to Haiti, where over one million people are living with only tented shelters to protect them as a result of the January earthquake. Another major human catastrophe may be unfolding before our very eyes, which we seem impotent to prevent. On the other hand, if the weather system stays on a westward course, it will deal further blows to Jamaica, which has not yet recovered from Tropical storm Nicole (J$20 billion damage), and probably Belize, which is still recovering from hurricane Richard. 30 years ago, one expected to deal with major disasters of this kind, say, once every ten years. Nowadays, most islands expect at least one, and possibly two or three, every year. In other words this now has to be seen as a permanent, recurring phenomenon or integral feature of Caribbean development. When you combine acute climate change-related stress of this kind with (a) the acute economic stress arising out of erosion of trade preferences and the failure to develop a new insertion into the global economy, (b) fiscal stress due to unsustainable debt burdens and the impact of the global economic crisis; and (c) the seeming incapacity of governments to control the impact of transnational crime; one must wonder if we are not in fact experiencing an overlapping and interconnected series of challenges which in their totality, challenge the assumptions underlying the national statehood dispensation of the region. Suppose, in other words, that we are not dealing simply with a series of natural disasters, but rather with a deeper, more systemic threat to the viability of our societies as functional entities in any meaningful sense of the word? Most of us are not likely to view our condition in such apocalyptic terms, of course. Governments and opinion-makers tend to see each such phenomena as disconnected events, each requiring its own specialised response by a dedicated agency or stakeholder. Our governments give the appearance of being in permanent crisis mode, like the captain and crew of a ship caught in a perfect storm desperately trying to work out how to survive the next monster wave (even as they assure the frightened passengers that they can cope!). Crisis management is not a condition that lends itself to strategic thinking. Yet isnt strategic thinking, that attempts to discern the connections among seemingly unrelated phenomena, not what is required? Indeed is it not a necessity for survival? I would think that the first step of such an exercise is for us to admit to ourselves that the problems we face are too wide in

scope and too vast in scale for any one Caribbean country to cope with by itself; that the thinking, institutions and structures we have no longer serve us well; and that no onenot government or opposition; not public sector or private; not civil society or academiacan singly provide the answers. Can we begin a conversation nationally and regionallyor rather, take existing conversations to a higher plane? November 1, 2010
Norman.girvan@gmail.com www.normangirvan.info

Please see Annex with additional information on next page

Existential Threats: Further Note

3D. North Atlantic Tropical Storms
This figure shows the number of named tropical storms in the North Atlantic, per year, smoothed out over a 10-year running average to minimize the noise in year-to-year variation. Since 1996, tropical storm frequency has exceeded by 40% the old historic maximum of the mid-1950s, previously considered extreme. Recent peer-reviewed studies suggest a link between higher sea surface temperature and storm frequency. Extreme weather events are a projected impact of global climate change.

Source: The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warmingbasics/facts_and_figures/impacts/storms.cfm

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Atlantic Storm Tracks. Source: The Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/hurricane-season-2010scorecard_2010-08-1

2010 Tropical Storm Scorecard. From the Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/hurricane-season2010-scorecard_2010-08-16

CARIBBEAN: DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

Extracts from Preliminary Overview of The Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2009; by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. As ECLAC (2009a) has indicated, the public debt of most of the English-speaking Caribbean countries has exceeded levels that could in any way be defined as sustainable, and the situation only worsened in 2009 (see box II.2). In table II.1 it can be observed that, except for Bahamas, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago, at the close of 2009 this subregion showed levels of public debt that ranged from 60% of GDP in Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, to almost 120% in Jamaica. According to (ECLACS) calculations, Barbados, Belize, Guyana and Jamaica would have to post primary (fiscal) surpluses of between 2.3% and 3.9% of GDP over the next 20 years in order to reduce their current public debt to 40% of GDP, a level considered to be sustainable...In every case, it is important to bear in mind the marked recessionary effects of such fiscal adjustments, as well as their economic and social costs, which would be magnified if the current recessionary climate and economic slowdown resulting from the international crisis were to continue. http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/3/38063/Chapter_II_Economic_Policy.pdf, p. 38. Retrieved 14 June 2010.

Caribbean Countries: Homicide rates per 100,000

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Comparison: Canada: 2 per 100,000; Singapore: 1.3 per 100,000. Barbados, which has one of the lowest homicide rates in the Englishspeaking Caribbean, has a homicide rate that is 5 times that of Canada and over 7 times that of Singapore. Jamaicas homicide rate is 28 times that of Canada and nearly 44 times that of Singapore. Data taken from the Guardian data base at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tAJzrYuGxXOGbU_HO2s_PrQ#gid=0 The national data source, where available, is used in preference to the WHO estimate. Most sources are for the years 2005-2005; but the Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago figure have been updated to 2009 based on newspaper reports.