Practice exercises: Question 1

Tutorial 13
Scope of this tutorial: Calculation of sample and population odds Calculation of sample and population odds ratio Test of association using odds ratio Comparison with chi sq test of association

In a random sample of students (of size 50) who passed STAT170, 20 are males and 30 are females. (a) Suggest a target population.

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Question 1(continued)
(b) Research question: Are the proportions of males and females who passed STAT170 the same? Suppose we employ the z-test for proportion (i) Write down the null hypothesis. Ho: M=0.5 (or F=0.5 ) (ii) Write down the sample proportions for males and females. pM = __2/5=0.4__, pF = __3/5=0.6__
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Question 1(continued)
(c) Research question: Are the proportions of males and females who passed STAT170 the same? [Same as in (b)] Suppose we employ the chi sq test of proportions (i) Write down the null hypothesis. Ho: M = F= 0.5 (ii) Write down the observed and expected counts OM = __20___, OF = __30__ EM = _ 50*0.5=25__, EF = _ 50*0.5=25 _
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Question 1(continued)
(d) (i) Of those who passed STAT170, what is the sample odds of males (against females)? sample odds = 2/3 (ii) Of those who passed STAT170, what is the estimated population odds of males (against females)? estimated population odds = sample odds = 2/3 (iii) Can you find the exact population odds of males (against females)? Explain why or why not. No, since there is no info on the population
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Question 2
(a) Prob Odds Calculate the odds of the following events if they occur with the given probabilities. Do NOT ask for formulas! (i) 1/6, (ii) 1/2, (iii) 2/5, (iv) 4/5 1/5, 1 (or 1/1), 2/3, 4 (or 4/1) (b) Odds Prob Calculate the probability of the occurrence of following events if the odds are: (i) 1/3 (ie 1 to 3), (ii) 4/9 1/4, 4/13

Question 3
In Australia, the prevalence of asthma is 20% among 5-9 year old males, while it is 12% for 5-9 year old females. (a) What are the odds of a 5-9 year old male suffering from asthma, and of a 5-9 year old female suffering from asthma? (b) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds of 5-9 year old males suffering from asthma compared to the odds for 5-9 year old females suffering from asthma. (c) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds of 5-9 year old females suffering from asthma compared to the odds for 5-9 year old males suffering from asthma. (d) Comment on the odds ratio in (b). 7

Question 3 (answers)
Male Female

asthma No asthma % % % %

(a) Ans: 0.25, 0.13636

(b) =1.8333 (This should be , not w.)

Question 4
(c)
In Australia, 17.8% of 6-14 year old males have ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder) and 7.9% of 6-14 year old females have ADHD.

(d)

(a) What are the odds of a 6-14 year old male having ADHD, and of a 6-14 year old female having ADHD? (b) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds of 6-14 year old males having ADHD compared 10 to the odds for 6-14 year old females having ADHD.

Question 4 (answers)
Male Female

ADHD % %

No ADHD % %

Question 4 (continued)
(c) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds of 6-14 year old females having ADHD compared to the odds for 6-14 year old males having ADHD. (d) Comment on your odds ratio in (b)

(a) Ans: 0.217, 0.086

(b) =2.52 (This should be , not w.)

(e) Comment on the association between ADHD and gender.

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(c)

Question 5
A questionnaire was handed out to students. One question was Do you believe in love at first sight? There were 200 males of whom 102 responded yes. Of the 281 females, 121 responded yes. (a) Put these data into a table. (b) Compute the sample odds ratio for a male student believing in love at first sight compared to a female student believing in love at first sight.
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(d)

(e)

(c) Interpret the odds ratio in (b)

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Question 5 (answers)
Male Female

Love (yes) Love (No) 102 121 98 160

Question 5 (continued)
(d) Research question: Is there an association between
Gender and Love at First Sight? Perform a chi square test of association to answer the above research question. Answer: 2=2.96 , df =1 0.05<p-val<0.1, NOT reject Ho There could be no association

(b) ns: w = 1.38 (This time it should be w, not .)

w=

102 / 98 = 1.38 121 / 160

(c) The odds for a male student believing in love at

first sight is 1.38 times the odds for a female student believing in love at first sight.
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Question 5 (answers)

Question 5 (continued)
(e) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio for a male student believing in love at first sight compared to a female student believing in love at first sight. Using your conclusion in (d), do you think the CI will or will not include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from EcStat.) Chi sq test in (d) shows that there could be no association between gender and love at first sight. Odds ratio must have the same conclusion of probably NO association. Hence CI for should include 1.
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Question 6
A study was done on births in New South Wales in 2002. Country of birth of the mothers, and the mothers ages were recorded as binary categorical variables. The results are tabulated below:
Mothers Age Mothers Birth Country Australia Asia <30 631 147 30 or over 605 167

Question 6 (continued)
(a)

(b) Interpret the odds ratio in (a).

(a) What is the odds ratio of an Australian born mother being less than 30 years of age compared to an Asian 19 born mother being less than 30?

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Question 6 (continued)
(c) Research question: Is there an association between
mothers birth country and mothers age? Perform an chi square test of association to answer the above research question. Answer: 12 = 1.80

Question 6 (answers)

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Question 6 (continued)
(d) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio of an Australian born mother being less than 30 years of age compared to an Asian born mother being less than 30. Using your conclusion in (c), do you think the CI will or will not include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from EcStat.)

Question 7
Continued from previous question. The babys weight is also recorded as a binary variable. The mothers age and the babys weight are summarized in the table below:
Babys Wt Mothers Age <30 30 or over < 2.5 kg 52 50 2.5 kg or over 901 997

(a) What is the odds ratio of a mother who is under 30 years of age having a low birth weight baby (< 2.5kg) compared to an older mother?
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Question 7 (continued)
(a)

Question 7 (continued)
(c) Research question: Is there an association between
mothers age and babys weight? Perform an chi square test of association to answer the above research question. Answer: 12 = 0.478

(b) Interpret the odds ratio in (a).

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Question 7 (answers)

Question 7 (continued)
(d) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio of a mother who is under 30 years of age having a low birth weight baby (< 2.5kg) compared to an older mother. Using your conclusion in (c), do you think the CI will or will not include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from EcStat.)

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Question 8
The following shows the distribution of gender in university education. Education University Non-university Male 19 293 Female 11 110

Question 9
In the NSW Local Court in 2007, 14.5% of charges of assault occasioning actual bodily harm resulted in prison sentences, while 7.2% of charges of common assault resulted in prison sentences. (a) Complete the following table. Sent to Prison 14.5% 7.2%
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Set Free

The 95% CI for population odds ratio () of male entering university against female is given to be (0.788, 3.724). Determine if there is an association between gender and entering university. Ans: Since CI for (0.788, 3.724) includes 1, there could 29 be no association between gender and entering university.

Odds of going to prison

Assault with body injury Common assaults (no body injury)

12.9

Question 9
(b) Find the odds ratio of odds of going to prison for assault with body injury compared to odds of going to prison for common assault. (Ans:2.18)

The following 4 tables were shown in Lect 11, where for chi sq test involving 2 variables, we only use counts, not %. From this sample of exact counts, we form 3 other tables involving %. Smoker Male Female 9.33% 10.67% Smoker Male 46.67% 53.33% Nonsmoker 24% 56% Nonsmoker 30% 70% Smoker Nonsmoker 14 36 84 Nonsmoker 72% 84% 32

Question 10

Male

Female 16 Smoker Male Female 28% 16%

(c) Is this the population odds ratio () or a sample odds ratio (w)?

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Female

Question 10 (continued)
(a) Check that all % in the 3 tables are correct. (b) Find the (sample) odds ratio for a male being a smoker compared to a female being a smoker, in ALL the four (4) tables.33 / 24 9. 14 / 36
w= 10.67 / 56 15 / 84 46.67 / 30 28 / 72 w= = 2.04; w = = 2.04 53.33 / 70 16 / 84 = 2.04; w= = 2.04

Question 11
While in the previous question, all 4 tables can be considered equivalent, the following 3 tables are NOT. Find the OR of a male being a smoker to that of a female being a smoker? (Which table should you use? This seems obvious, but MANY students made mistakes in past exams.)
Sex male female total Smoke Observed counts Smoke smoker non-smoker 5 11 6 8 11 19 Expected counts Smoke smoker non-smoker 5.9 10.1 8.9 5.1 11.0 19.0 total 16 14 30

Sex male female total

total 16.0 14.0 30.0

(c) Do you find the same answer for all 4 cases? Yes. All give the same answer: w=2.04 (d) Is this expected? If yes, WHY? Yes. Whether actual counts or %, the ratios must be 33 the same.

Sex male female total Test: Indep

Chi-squared decomposition Smoke smoker non-smoker total 0.128 0.074 0.202 0.146 0.085 0.231 0.274 0.159 0.433 df chi-sq 34p-val 1 0.43 0.51