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research associate: Shaun Hutchinson urban moving 2030: transport typologies for the future city
final report
research associate: Shaun Hutchinson Department: Vehicle Design title of report: urban moving 2030: transport typologies for the future city
October 2001
Shaun Hutchinson
FOREWORD
This report describes a design study which proposes new types of urban vehicles based on a critical assessment of anticipated changes in technology, demographics, user behaviour and the built environment. In an area of design research often driven by styling and full-size modelling, this study takes a step back to analyse expert opinion and the results of extensive internet-based user research to formulate provocative and thoughtful illustrated design scenarios for 2030. The project is set in the context of changing attitudes towards the privately owned motor car. The automobile was for a long time seen as the key to personal mobility but as city centres become more congested and dangerous due to mounting road traffic and accidents, there are now moves to price motor vehicles out of cities. As a result, automotive manufacturers are beginning to think radically about new ways to provide urban mobility for all. This study, supported by Ford Motor Company, investigates the potential for hybrid public/private automotive city travel up to the year 2030. It proposes alternative methods of moving which combine personal privacy, comfort and ownership, albeit temporary, with the advantages of a reliable public service running along known routes. The project identified sustainable targets for change via consultation with experts, analysis of government transport policy papers, an internet survey of future urban needs (with more than 250 responses from users), and feedback solicited by a timeline device exhibited at Interchange, the integrated transport exhibition. From this research base, the designer identified four major urban mobility tasks: commuting, entertainmentseeking, area visiting and dwelling (trips related to socialising or shopping for example). These formed the basis for the creation of four vehicle typologies that meet the user aspirations for each task. These vehicles were then placed in user scenarios to explore their role within an organised city mobility programme. Encouragingly, these scenarios take a socially inclusive design approach, paying particular attention to older and disabled people who are so often left out of the creative equation.
The project will now go forward as the basis for PhD study at the Royal College of Art and the Helen Hamlyn Research Centre intends to continue to provide advice and support for Shaun Hutchinson as he expands on the design thinking described here and adds further depth to the vehicle typologies illustrated in concept form. Jeremy Myerson
Director, Helen Hamlyn Research Associates Programme Royal College of Art October 2001
CONTENTS
section 1
Introduction Page 4
section 2
Context page 6
section 3
Research Methods page 9
section 4
Results and Outputs page 17
section 5
Next Steps page 28
appendices
page 30
1.1 Brief page 5 1.1.1 Aims page 5 1.1.2 Objectives page 5 1.1.3 Outcomes page 5 1.2 The industrial partner page 5
1.1 Brief
1.1.1 Aims To explore the potential of public/private hybrid automotive city travel up to the year 2030.
1.1.2 Objectives
1.1.3 Outcomes
> A 50 year illustrated timetrack (1980-2030) > A series of illustrated design typologies of urban vehicles
SECTION 2 introduction
2.1 Project background page 7 2.2 A new sustainable project outlook page 7 2.2.1 Technology page 8 2.2.2 User behaviour page 8 2.2.3 Domestic environment page 8 2.2.4 Urban context page 8
> Technology > User behaviour > Domestic environments > Urban context
2.2.1 Technology Technology provided the project with a material background. As this decade' s most significant lifestyle influence, findings in this research area should provide vital clues to social behaviour and our new surrounding environments.
2.2.2 User behavior A decade ago if a man or a woman were seen walking down the road talking to themselves, they would have probably have been condemned as insane, but in the 21st century, that person is having a conversation on a hands free mobile telephone unit. Products like this will continue to change our lifestyle and behaviour. Studies of user behaviour highlight user needs, desires and lifestyle. The ways in which users interact with their environments is the most important issue in this area of research.
2.2.3 Domestic environments The home is the most important place in our lives, and so its equally important that the stuff that surrounds us should feel right. We need our everyday things to have integrity. These are the things that inspire emotion and promote an enormous sense of well being (The Sensual Home - Ilse Crawford)
The home is probably one of the most self-controlled environments that a person can find themselves in. This topic provides the project with provocative research for design thinking.
2.2.4 Urban context It was important to have knowledge of future targets set by local government and estimated evolutions of built environments as these are influencial factors that manufacturers and business have little control over. The city is the arena in which the project is placed and the changes and trends taking place within architecture and demographics played an important role in setting project outcomes.
3.1 Desk research page 10 3.1.1 Timetrack page 10 3.1.2 nVision of the Future Foundation page 10 3.1.3 Other information page 11
3.2 User research page 12 3.2.1 Urban_needs: a sub-project investigating city users page 12 3.2.2 Urban_needs: methods of probing for user needs page 13 3.2.3 Caf Campaign page 14
3.3 Expert and group research page 15 3.3.1 Mobility Roadshow 2001 page 15 3.3.2 Interchange Summit 2001 page 15 3.3.3 Include Conference 2001 page 16 3.3.4 Expert Interviews page 16
3.1.1 Timetrack Four months were allocated for background research in anticipation of the immense amount of raw data that would be collected by the questionnaire and other methods. A timetrack was created to allow ease of reference and addition, to map and sort out the data as it arrived. The four major project issues Technology, User Behaviour, Domestic environments and Urban Context - head columns that ran against time, set from 1980 to the year 2030. Expert opinion and desk findings were the main contributing sources of information to fill the timetrack. An example source of data for the Timetrack can be seen in section 3.3.2 where involvement with a UK transport summit is documented. All data and information is accompanied with a reference of origin to ensure integrity of data.
3.1.2 nVision of the Future Foundation nVision, run by the Future Foundation, is a leading on-line subscription service of social trends and forecasts in the UK (see www.futurefoundation.net). The Future Foundation specialises in analysing macro trends affecting UK society. Its on-line resource of 6000 graphs, data representing up to 30,000 specific facts/attitudes and 500 forecasts was freely available for the use of this Research Associate project. As a group whose approach is consumer led, research-based, future focused and inter-disciplinary, the use of this service provided important lifestyle and demographic context. Leading issues supplied by nVision and used for the project were:
10
3.1.3 Other Information Other information was gained from Government papers, research groups such as TRG - Southampton Universities Transport Research Group - and internet based information of the future developments of global technology organisations such as Phillips and Ericsson.
11
The Urban_needs sub-project was split into three parts. The structure is detailed below.
Part 1 - Have your say This preliminary section was the start of the Urban_needs project. It openly probed for city life opinion by asking questions about demographic background and about the pleasures and problems found when moving through an urban environment. It also identified important needs in the daily tasks of city users. Opinions were expressed in open sentence to encourage truthful dialogue. Further details at www.hoif.net
Part 2 - Result clarification and creating a the scenario user group Results from part 1 were processed to distinguish need from preference, and like from dislike. This section of Urban_needs set new questions derived from the trends and significant issues expressed in part 1. Questions were formed as multiple choice so diagrams could be drawn and data analysed easily. Questions about attitudes to mobility services also appeared in this section and users could choose to become members of the user group for the third stage. This event was held at the same website address as part 1 replacing the previous questioning. (The results of this part of the Urban_needs project can be seen in appendix 7)
12
Part 3 The scenario workshops Following part 2, the participants signed up for user group workshops and chosen experts were sent an e-mail containing the location address of the scenario workshops. In the scenario workshops named the 'Future Mobility Laboratory' the scenarios and typologies are presented using diagrammatic three-dimensional models and step-by-step storyboards. After an initial run through, the users and experts were asked to give their opinion as to what was useful or useless. This event was held at www.hoif.net/mobilitylab.html a different address to allow the Urban_needs project to gain continual momentum running part 1 and 2 in parallel. In figure 5, screen shots of the Future Mobility Laboratory can be seen.
3.2.2 Urban_needs: Methods of probing for user needs The Urban_needs project was launched just after the beginning of the new year, which meant that there was only a month and a half to enable a quantitative response. Combating time and distance formed itself as a major task and finding willing members of the public to participate became the primary objective. Contact with public was achieved by approaching relevant internet communities and by publicly advertising the site in internet cafes. These channels of dissemination were ideal for a project such as this where personnel resources and time were limited.
3.2.3 Cafe Campaign Seven internet cafes in the west of London were used as grounds for exposing the Urban_needs site. These cafes can be seen on a map in figure1. West London was isolated as the research environment to make dissemination and distribution easier. A mix of media was used to expose the site in the cafes chosen. These were the posters, business card fliers, desktop wallpaper and active internet desktop links that gave immediate access to the site. This media used can be seen in figures 2 to 4.
13
Figure 1: Internet Store Locations and media type used in urban_needs public exposure campaign.
1 / Cyberia Whitfield Street, W1 (Posters, Cards, Desktop picture, Active desktop weblink) 2 / Webshack Soho, W1 (Active desktop weblink) 3 / Global Internet Burliegh St, WC1 (Posters, Cards) 4 / A1 Internet cafes - Leinster Gardens, W2 (Active desktop weblink) 5 / Portobello Gold Portobello Road, W11 (Posters, Cards) 6 / Cafe.net - Sheen Lane, SW14 (Posters, Cards) 7 / Cyberia Ealing, W5 (Posters, Cards, Desktop picture)
Figure 2: Cards
14
15
4.2 User behaviour page 18 4.2.1 Observing users page 18 4.2.2 Generic concepts from users behaviours that are beyond stereotypes page 19 4.3 Concept breakdown page 20 4.3.1 Mobility tabs (Enabling operator/product to user relationships) page 20 4.3.2 Urban mobile corridors (Commuting) page 21 4.3.3 Independent movers (Entertainment Seeking) page 23 4.3.4 Built environment carriers (Dwelling) page 25 4.3.5 Open houses (Area Visiting) page 26
16
17
- Sports participation - Eating out - Non-domestic enjoyment - High Culture - Locational Value - Safety
*
PRIMATIVE MOBILITY NEEDS
A to B - planned movement
Entertainment Seeking
Dwelling
Area Visiting
Commuting
of such a group are so specialised and individual that their needs could easily form another project. The maintainers were therefore set aside for the moment and the needs of the public city users were given the project priority. 4.2.2 Generic concepts The intention of the project was to explore possible diverse solutions for urban mobility. (see section 2.2 A new sustainable project outlook) The concepts created are generic to give further scope for development and provide principles rather than absolute solutions. Four generic vehicle typologies are created around the usage tasks identified in the city user observations the previous section 4.1.1.
> Urban Mobile Corridors (Commuting) > Independent Movers (Entertainment Seeking) > Built Environment Carriers (Dwelling) > Open Houses (Area Visiting)
This allows the vehicle typologies to gain true relevance to user needs in a real situation. This is important as the project bases itself around sustainability. A fifth generic concept was created for the project that looks at enabling operator/product to user relationships.
18
Multifunctional but simple. The tab is used for a variety of functions but in each case simplicity is the main design objective.
> The Mobility Tab provides visual confirmation of the mobility tasks to provide
reassurance that services are active. (i.e. if commuting is activated by the operator, then the tab would display commuting)
> The Tab acts as a simple one-touch commander that would alert roaming
vehicles of a users presence. (This concept is illustrated further in scenario form in appendix 4 where a user hails a vehicle to use it.) This concept helps to give the need for mobility a ubiquitous state, giving the user a visual confidence provider (like an underground ticket to South Kensington may say on it South Kensington valid till) and helps to fulfil due need for control of their mobility environment. (Usage of the Mobility Tab is illustrated in appendix 1 and at the beginning of every typology scenario; appendices 2, 3, 4 and 5 aid understanding of the concept.)
4.3.2 Urban Mobile Corridors Commuting Figures quote that in a city such as London, 60% of city users do not rely on a private car to get to work, making the Urban Mobile Corridor typology a vehicle
19
that seeks opportunity in heavily built-up areas. For this reason, the emphasis of the typology development is ease and safety the vehicle just acts as a service that delivers users. Below are the Urban Mobile Corridors concept attributes.
> Architecture minimalisation promoting design for all. > Lowering human fatality by designing usage. > Lowering human fatality with autonomous systems. > Attracting usage by allowing users to design their own vehicle environments. > Multitasking attributes to increase the concept potential.
All attributes of the Urban Mobile Corridor are artistically illustrated in appendix 2 to summarise.
Architecture minimalisation promoting design for all Hub motors using drive by wire technology that would physically power electrically maximised interior space in this concept to create a walkthrough interior. This architecture minimalisation would create a usage environment that would be appreciated by everyone from wheelchair users and the elderly through to the average inner-city space junkie!
Lowering human fatality by designing usage The architectured minimalisation, as mentioned above, would mean that users in this vehicle are always picked up with the rear door to the curb and delivered front door to the curb thus keeping them away from dangerous road areas and avoiding fatalities. A short vehicle length allows end to curb usage so as not to interfere with normal traffic flow. This is a departure from the traditional side to curb usage often found in vehicles.
20
Lowering human fatality with autonomous systems Benefits of autonomous technology seem highly relevant for this typology as it would often accommodate blurry-eyed morning users and tired afternoon users. Naturally these users would have a low state of environment awareness so vehicle automation could result in lowering fatalities. Conversations with Michel Parent, a vehicle autonomy expert at INRIA in France, highlighted complete autonomous systems as a possibility that can be achieved now by collaboration with architects of the urban environment to create local area networks. The technology that would enable this would be more akin to automated robot systems that are found in manufacturing plants.
Attracting usage by allowing users to design their own vehicle environments Research from the Urban_needs project point to the perceived benefits of low cost in the real world scenario of commuting. When asked If you could custom brand a vehicle with a chosen logo or advert of a sponsor to lower the cost, 69% of all users questioned said yes. Here, opportunities arise to attract usage. Hardware technology such as bi-stable products (electronic paper displays) that should start to emerge by the year 2005, offer possibilities for customisation of interior aesthetics and media. (Figure 10 shows IBM concept development of bi-stable products.)
Multi-tasking attributes to increase the concept potential To make full use of the Urban Mobile Corridor as a resource, the concept delegates a second task to the product. The mobile Urban Corridor could be regularly used to haul with an operating driver, delivering and collecting other vehicles and swiftening flow of vehicle movement in the urban environment. Talks with autonomous vehicle expert of INRIA Michel Parent (see section 3.3.4) revealed that latitudinal and longitudinal control systems could enable this ideal but legislation is still the main barrier for full development. (Figure 11 shows work completed by Michel Parent at INRIA)
21
Figure 10: An IBM vision of Bi-Stable product. Cost effective and very low power usage.
Figure 11: Work completed at INRIA of driverless car towing and driverless parking.
4.3.3 Independent Movers - Entertainment Seeking The emphasis of this generic typology development is social inclusion and ease of use as belligerent interfaces can no longer be called entertainment. Of all the scenarios, this transport option allows users the chance for urban road freedom. Below are the Independent Movers concept attributes.
> Spatial Flexibility & Comfort > Choice of minimalisation encouraging social inclusion > Flexible entrance and regress > Flexible inclusive operation
(All attributes of the Independent Movers are illustrated in appendix 3)
Spatial Flexibility & Comfort 81 out of 100 users who responded to the question If you could customise a personal/public vehicle on basis of need, what would be most important? said spatial arrangements was their choice on basis of need. This balanced close to equal against seat comfort (84 users out 100 users on basis of need). (See appendix 7 for further reference) These two were the highest ratings of the five responses to the question, and became a main part of the design objective.
Choice of minimalisation encouraging social inclusion For this typology, a reflection of this data seemed sensible, as the typology is probably the closest to that of a conventional motor vehicle. To achieve this, the seating is hideaway and is concealed in the walls of the vehicle space is not then consumed when needed for other functions. Having the seats fold down from the wall also means that the floor can maintain a clean, flat surface. This is good for pre- Third Age (40 to 60) users who start to experience difficulties moving freely and is ideal for older people who have trouble moving freely in and out of vehicles.
22
Easy entrance and egress To make entrance easy for all, large apertures are a common feature on the vehicle. It has three entrances but only two open at one time, the pavement side and the rear door. The third door that is closest to the road will automatically lock for safety. As the vehicle fills with users , the rear entrance would be used more frequently in use would be the rear as the seating is attached to the walls. The side door is comparable to a traditional two door aperture that forms a single door to make movement through the vehicle easier when a few people are in it. The rear door is also a large aperture with a traditional tailgate style opening that hinges from the highest point of the vehicle architecture. The floor is completely flat from the front to the rear of the vehicle to make boarding with shopping bags, prams and wheelchairs easier.
Flexible inclusive operation This typology promotes good usage for a wide audience allowing wheelchair users, large, small and older people to use operational devices comfortably. To achieve this, the dimensions of a household domestic chair and table were simulated in a vehicle interior. This architecture was investigated with in the One Vehicle project (see fig 11) and is carried over to this project with amendments. Figure 13 shows the amended use of a steering wheel instead of handlebars. As this vehicle seeks a wider audience, this amendment was made to make road handling easier. Visualised in figure 12 is the kind of full upper operation device that could enable this principle.
23
4.3.4 Built Environment Carriers (Dwelling) The emphasis of this generic typology development is to seek better mobility relationships with the built environment. As it is quite rare that the vehicle industry and the civil environment co-ordinate solutions with such an emphasis, this sub-section creates two vehicle principles which operate directly in relation to the urban environment. (Scenarios that are illustrated in appendix 4 show a vision of the main attributes.)
A possible civil environment context Governing bodies of Europe are seeking to regenerate wasteland - known as brownfield land - in built up areas in cities. Definitive targets set by the UK government say that by the year 2006, 60% of all brownfield land should become dwellings. Therefore this typology looks to create a vision that would physically combine carrying vehicles with the architecture of the built environment in new dwelling estates.
Principle1 - Built Environment Carriers creating ultimate integration with dwellings Aiming to make human transit from the urban environment to vehicle environment as seamless as possible is a positive attribute of this generic typology. Large apertures that create little change of body position and ensuring levels of environment and transport floor surfaces make physical transit more integrated and design inclusive. (These attributes already exist in rail transport systems). To seek a more traditional approach in comparison to road and car manufacturing, a system exists in Leeds UK called Guideway Superbus. Figure 14 shows a collection of visuals that highlight the principles mentioned. Elements of this system are echoed in the built environment carrier typology, giving evidence of manufacturing viability relating to traditional vehicle architectures.)
24
Figure 11: Mock-up domestic architecture from the one vehicle project (Left) Figure 12: A steering wheel with inertia ring in centre. (Top right) Figure 13: Illustrated version of both combined (Bottom right)
Figure 14: Visuals of level floor entrance, Superbus interacting with built environment by running through concrete channel and the wheel guide system that enable channel guidance.
Principle 2 - Domesticated design The vehicle is akin to a domestic environment to maintain physical emphasis on dwelling harmony. The interior typology holds four people comfortably enabling use family transport. The vehicle architecture is also wide enough to hold a wheelchair, pram or walking aids.
4.3.5 Open Houses (Area Visiting) The emphasis of this generic typology development is on tackling congestion. As a vehicle that would operate on fixed routes or ordered to need, this mobility option could be of particular use to area visitors of the urban environment. Below are the Open Houses concept attributes:
> Decongestion > Optimum development conditions for interaction design > Privacy in a shared space
(All attributes of the Open House are illustrated in appendix 5)
Decongestion Issues of road decongestion gave reason to explore shared space and privacy in terms of vehicle design. The outcome is a four person, shared, trailing vehicle that is hauled by the Urban Mobile Corridor defined for multitasking (see section 4.3.2). Instead of five cars carrying a single person in each, one shared vehicle carrying four people using a hauler saves space on the road.
Privacy in a shared space Inside the vehicle, low level partitioning defines personal areas and pull-up partitions from the low level partitioning fully defines privacy if wanted or needed. This interior architecture is created with the hope of attracting higher usage amongst people who will potentially not know one another (see appendix 5 to see illustrated partitioning). The Urban_needs research identified security as most important when moving through urban environments, so activities in the Open House typology are camera-monitored by the hauling driver to provide security for all.
Natural Interaction design Experiments were conducted that concentrated domestic values on interactions with other vehicles (see fig 15). A kinetic envelope of movement is defined
25
around the user taking a seating position. This is replicated in the door shape to give similar parameters of movement. Other cues used to guide interaction are: hinging the door from centre so position for entrance is predefined; and placing the seat backs facing the ends of the vehicle so, visually, the user orientation is confirmed and completed.
26
Figure 11: Shown is a design experiment looking at domestic seating and its relationship to the shape for the door architecture of the Open House typology. Point b1 mark the start of sideways movement. The red lines show the kinetic envelope for a more domesticated style of body movement. (Further experimentation with body sizes should detail dimensional perimeter)
5.1 Concentrating design around users page 29 5.1.2 Designing products that gain trust page 29 5.1.2 Automation in cities page 29
27
From a design perspective, concentrating on user/product social dynamics became essential. This was investigated in isolation in section 4.3.1 (Mobility Tabs). Further opportunities to gain trust lay within this approach for design.
5.1.2 Automation in cities According to expert opinion, the year 2010 will be a turning point for manual and autonomous systems in vehicle design. The argument pushing legislation at the moment focuses around the ideal of zero fatality and easy lifestyle. Unfortunately, what can be seen from automisation are conflicts between user aspirations for independence and governing bodies. Further research into vehicle/urban environment design needs to take to ensure that the aspirations of all concerned for safer cities are to be maintained. Research design opportunities arise that relate awareness and relaxation to physical architectures. For example, a person in a vehicle is under control of the vehicle and decides that they now want to have a look at something in the rear of the vehicle. Concepts such as the Lancia Nea maintain that a user can regain control by a light push of the steering wheel. However, the user may have nudged the steering wheel by accident whilst looking for something in the back. Could s design solution where interiors physically change shape to define function (i.e. controls move out of the way) remove this problem? This is only one example and undoubtedly more opportunities will arise as automation makes its way into the modern motor vehicle over the next 10 to 15 years.
28
APPENDICES
29
APPENDIX 1
30
Ways to move x 4
01 02 03
04
05a
05b
05c
or
or
APPENDIX 2
31
04
03
05
06
http://www.ford.c om/urban_movin
g.html
07
08
10
09
Speed is controlled by the move operator and user voice for safety.
Road control is simplified for safety. Click left and right for direction.
11
12
When Patrick reaches his destination. The Urban Mobile Corridor to take care of its self.
01
Entrance ramping
02
Large front an rear tailgate doors
03
Walk through Architecture
01 Entrance ramping make entrance easier and pleasant. This also enables socially excluded
parties prams, wheelchairs, elderly.
curb to curb delivery of users and enables socially excluded parties prams, wheelchairs, elderly.
APPENDIX 3
32
Independent Movers
Entertainment Seeking
from Commuting from Mobility Tab
a(i)
b(i)
Just before Patrick prepares to leave work. He prepares his next journey.
a(ii)
b(ii)
Speed is controlled by the move operator and user voice for safety.
a(iii)
01
Entertainment Seekers
(continuted)
02
b
03
05
04
The Urban Mobile Corridor leaves the Independent Mover vehicle at point a
06
07
Entertainment Seekers
(continuted)
08
09
11
10
12
b
13
Entertainment Seekers
(continuted)
20
21
22
23
Patrick drops off John and starts the drive to his flat.
01
Flat floors
02
03
04
High seating
05
06
01 Large singular doors give easier entrance and exit for users doing various tasks and for people with differing abilities.
E.G.: Someone with shopping bags Sports bags Wheelchair users Elderly Users with prams Injured with broken limbs
02 Flat floors makes entrance/exit and movement of lower limbs in the vehicle easier. 03 High peaked roof enables disabled and tall users. 04 Diverse methods of entrance create access for wheelchair users, and make loading of vehicle an much more pleasant task. 05 High seating makes seating and standing entrance and exit easier, and psychologically creates a positive driving persona. 06 Full hand operation enables lower limb disabled.
APPENDIX 4
33
Dwelling
01 02
04
03
A vehicle comes towards him while heading for the estate station.
Patrick enters his dwelling estate where can catch a MOVE vehicle.
05
06
beep
07
08
10
09
11
Patrick is then dropped of at his apartment and the vehicle continues on a circular route.
02
Large Aperture
03
Domestic door width clearance
01 Level entry flooring make entrance easier and pleasant (Also enables socially excluded parties prams, wheelchairs, elderly) 02 Large Aperture make movement through the vehicle intuitive (i.e.: less transitional body movement) 03
Domestic door width clearance
give storage space and enables wheelchair and pram carrying.
APPENDIX 5
34
Open House
Area Visitors
a(i) a(ii)
a(iv)
a(iii)
b(i)
a(v)
a(vi)
b(ii)
He sees an Open House going towards his destination. So he decides to stops it.
Area Visitors
(continuted)
01
04
05
and pulls up the partitions for privacy so that he can call Tara.
While talking to Tara he notices that he has nearly reached his destination.
02
03
06
Patrick is phoned up by the operator who confirms an update of his mobility task.
07
They meet in primary square where they plan to start the evening in the city centre.
01
Flat flooring
02
03
High ceiling
04
Privacy screens
05
01 Flat floors makes easier entrance/exit. 02 Natural entry doors are formed to compare to a more domestic style body movement. 03 High ceiling provide easier entry 04 Privacy screens lift up and down from the low level partitions to give users a personal space. 05 Partitioning for 4 users aids spatial security for users in the shared vehicle.
APPENDIX 6
35
2030
technology
user behaviour
2031: - 104% incease from 1996 of rural traffic in england if transport policies fail to stem growth(16)
domestic environments
urban context
2030: - UK: Vast majority of our urban fabric still exists(12)
2030
2025
2025
2020
2021: - UK: Cohabiting couples_3 million(6) 2020: - DNA Computing starts(2) - Computers dominate lifes of people(2) - Artificial Intelligence, a true begining?(2) - 5000 yrs of human experience on the internet(2) 2020: - UK: Aged 65 & over_16 million(5), - UK: population_60 million(1)
2020
2015
2016: - 69% incease from 1996 in urban motorway usage on weekday 8-9 am(15)
2015: - New homes_4.4 to 5.5 million from the year 2000, 80% to single persons(6)
2015
2012: - UK Gov: Reduce Co2 emissions_12% below 1990 levels(9) - California: New CARB rules requres 88,000 ZEV.(20)
2010
2010
2009: - Urban Drive Assistance technologies in vehicles emerge.(21) - Access to the internet by: TV just over 50%, PC just under 50% 2008: - GM: Consumer fuel cell tech.(11) - Crossing Assistant vehicles technologies emerge.(21) 2007: - Holographics emerge in markets(13) - Rural Drive Assistance vehicles technologies emerge.(21) 2006: - FCC rule out analog TV signals for digital(2) - Lane Changing/Merging Assistant vehicles technologies emerge.(21)
2008: - 60% of new housing on brownfield land and converted old buildings.(12) - California: New CARB rules requres 44,000 ZEVs.(20)
2005
2005
2004: - GM: Preproduction fuel cell tech. (11) - Stop and Go ++ & Blind Spot Monitoring vehicle technologies emerge.(21)
2004: - Business and service providers must ensure access for the disabled Disabled Discrimination Act BS 5810, issued. (12) 2003: - California: The original CARB ZEV mandate required 22,000 EVs by 2003.(20)
2003: - Bluetooth in most products(3) - Full UMTS G3 Infrastructure(4,10) - Parking Assisistant & Road Departure Warning System vehicle technologies emerge.(21) 2002: - GPRS@112K/sec - everywhere(10) - Stop and Go vehicle technologies emerge.(21) 2001: - GPRS WAP@56K/sec(10) - Access to the internet by: TV under 3%, PC just under 20% - Lane depaerture Warning System vehicle technologies emerge.(21) 2000: - GPRS in GSM@28K/sec(10) 2001: - Mobile phone hands free kit liberates open verbal social inhibitions.(18) 2000: - UK: Obesity_17% men, 20% women.(8)
2001: - California: CARB ZEV mandate modified to include hybrid, fuel cell & extremely clean gasoline.(20) 2000: - UK-Aged 65 & over_12 million(4), - California: CARB ZEV mandate, 70 public vehicles on the road though partnership.(11)
2000
2000
1995
1996: - UK-Cohabiting couples_1.56 million (6)
1995
1990
1991: - California: CARB (California Air Resources Board) introduced ZEV (Zero Emisson Vehicle) Mandate.(20)
1990
1985
1984: - No one would dream of buying a machine without common sense. Douglas Lenat specialists claim wrote rules of common sense for computing for Xerox, Apple, Kodak and more.(2)
1980/1990: - Entertainment moves from the home as noted in 1955 (abid, 1955, p.69) to commercial venues outside the home.(17) 1981: - One parent families doubled from 1960.(17)
Change of wisdom conventions(14) 1990s: - New City planing conventions Through roads, and Open travel patterns. 1980s: - City planing conventions Road hiaracy system.
1985
1980
technology
user behaviour
domestic environments
Timetrack references
W_Organiation website and URL link P_Government and Academic Paper B_Book and Publication J_Magazine and Journal I_Interviews with Field Experts R_Reserch and information of Consortiums, Groups & Organisation
(1) W http://www.undp.org/popin/wtrends/p98/fp98.htm (2) B Visions - Kaku 1990 (3) W http://www.bluetooth.com (4) W http://www.semiconductors.philips.com/3g/ (5) P Engineering Council A Vision for Transport 2020, 1997 (6) W http://www.trg.soton.ac.uk/research/TVNetwork/themes/theme1/week1fact.htm (7) W http://www.esrc.ac.uk/2010/docs/britain.html (8) W http://www.fabflour.co.uk (9) P New Deal for transport, Better for Everyone, UK Gov - July 1998 (10) W http://www.mpoweredup.com (11) J Automotive world - November 2000 [cover story: fuel cells - A whole new business] (12) P Urban Futures Our Towns and Cities: The Future Delivering an Urban Renaissance , UK Gov - November 2000 (13) I Philip Ross - Tuesday 16th 2001 (Editor of unwired magazine.) (14) I Sir Peter Hall - Tuesday 23rd 2001 (Professor of City planning and the built environment.) (15) R DETR & nVision, Focus on personal Transport (16) R ONS/nVision,Forcast for rural road if transport policies fail to stem growth. (17) B The Place of Home - English Domestic Environments, 1914-2000. (Alison Ravetz with Richard Turkington, 1995) (18) R 2030 - Urban Moving , observational research. (Shaun Hutchinson, 2001) (19) J Automotive world - December 2000 page 40. (20) J Automotive world - March 2001 page 10. (21) J EUCAR: European Council for Automotive R&D. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe. (Pitching breakthrough maturity against levels of confidence. Also concidering factors of Sevices, Infrastructure, Legal Social and political aspects, HMI and Technology. - 20/02/2001)
appendix 7
Urban_needs Results
36