4507 - Earn Cash from Sports Wagering Regardless of Who Wins the Game!

Text from: http://www.sportsarbitrageguide.com/ Sports Arbitrage Trading is the act of placing bets on all possible outcomes of a sporting event so that you lock in a definite profit at the end of that event. Known by a range of names - Scalping, Betting Arbitrage, Surebets - arbitrage trading also enables people to take complete advantage of other profitable concepts like Matched Betting and Bonus Arbitrage. What you really want to know about Arbitrage Trading though is that you really can make money from home on your computer by doing it. There is a lot to learn before any money can be made though, and that is why Sports Arbitrage Guide exists. By reading through this website you will be able to learn everything you need to know about what sports arbitrage trading is and how it works, what products are on the market to help you become a successful arbitrage trader, and how to successfully grow your own bankroll and become a successful full time arbitrageur earning more money, tax free, than you would make working in most high income careers. Best of all, there is no commitment at any stage of the learning process. There is no cost to use Sports Arbitrage Guide and no annoying sales gimmicks. We have a forum and I regularly respond personally to emails asking for help from people just getting started. So have a look around - it may be the best chance you will ever stumbled across for making a really good work from home income. Sports Betting Arbitrage, Scalping, Sure Bets, and Arb Trading all refer to the one thing, the idea of making a guaranteed profit from a difference in odds between sportsbooks. Normally, backing all outcomes of a single sporting event at a single bookmaker would result in you guaranteeing a loss of a few percent this is the bookmakers margin. However, if we take the best competing odds from different bookmakers, it is possible to make it so that guaranteed loss turns into a guaranteed profit. By betting on those high odds so that your winnings are the same no matter what the outcome, you are arbing. Examples are the easiest way to clarify exactly what that means, so just consider a tennis event where you can bet $100 on each player at odds of 2.05 at two competing bookmakers. Altogether you outlay $200 ($100 at each bookmaker), but if either bet wins you receive $100 x 2.05 = $205. With a $200 outlay, that is a $5 profit no matter what which player wins.

Another example: Pinnacle Sports has odds of 1.10 on Team A and 8.00 on Team B Canbet has odds of 1.20 on Team A and 5.00 on Team B In order to help you understand exactly how arbitrage works, the following list shows you what needs to be wagered to win $1000 from the odds offered on this game: Pinnacle Sports 1. $909.10 on 1.10 2. $125.00 on 8.00 Canbet 3. $833.35 on 1.20 4. $200.00 on 5.00 wins $1000 wins $1000 wins $1000 wins $1000

Looking at those numbers you can clearly see that backing both possible outcomes at Pinnacle will cost you $1034.10 and you will only win $1000, hence costing you $34.10. Backing both sides at Canbet will cost you $1033.35 and you will still only win $1000, hence costing you $33.50. So clearly both Pinnacle and Canbet have set their odds well, they will make a profit no matter who wins. However, if you backed the underdog at Pinnacle (8.00) and the favorite at Canbet (1.20) you would be placing only $958.35 in order to win $1,000. That is a guaranteed profit of $41.65 because you are using the difference in each bookmakers pricing. No matter who wins, you will win $1,000, and you will have only outlaid $958.35. Arbitrage trading is as simple as that. In practice, it involves comparing the odds of numerous bookmakers to find the best odds on offer, then seeing if those odds create a profitable return or not. If they do place the bets and wait for the match to play out to claim your profit. Arbitrage Trading, Scalping, and Other Terms Technically, Arbitrage Trading is defined as "the simultaneous buying and selling of assets in different markets or in derivative forms, taking advantage of the differing prices." Which is another way of saying Buy low, sell high. Similarly, Scalping is defined as "To engage in the reselling of something, such as tickets, at a price higher than the established value." This practice is most commonly seen with sports and music concert tickets. Both of these terms have been used to describe the idea described above betting on all possible outcomes for a guaranteed profit because they use the same principles: Take advantage of a difference in pricing for your own profit.

Surebet is another term frequently used to refer to an individual occurance of this situation. Similarly arbitrage is abbreviated to arb and used the same way thus a Sports Arbitrage Trader will place arbs (surebets). Much more recently, a couple of companies have tried to separate themselves from the well known arbitrage, surebet and scalping terms and refer to it as SORT trading and PFD Trading acronyms for Simultaneous Offsetting of Risk Technology and 'Profit From Differences, respectively. These terms describe the activity accurately enough, but the motivations of the companies for creating these new terms are questionable. Real Arbitrage Examples Soccer - UEFA - Bucharest Vs Madrid Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 2.08 on Bucharest with a +0.5 handicap. Victor Chandler offered odds of 2.02 on Real Madrid with a -0.5 handicap 1. $1000 2.08 = $480.76 2. $1000 2.02 = $495.05 So if we place a $480 bet on Bucharest (+0.5) at Pinnacle Sports and a $495 bet on Real Madrid (-0.5) at Victor Chandler, we commit $975 in bets to win roughly $1000 regardless of the outcome.. In the end Real Madrid won, securing the $24.90 profit: * $495 x 2.02 = $999.90 * $999.90 - $975 = $24.90 That is a 2.55% return on investment. If Bucharest had won, the profit would have been $24.90: * $480 x 2.08 = $998.40 * $998.40 - $975 = $23.40 Which would have been an equally impressive 2.4% return on investment. ATP - Berrer Vs Robredo Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 5.7 on Berrer to win. Expekt offered odds of 1.25 on Robredo to win 1. $1000 5.70 = $175.44 3

2. $1000 1.25 = $800.00 Place a $175 bet on Berrer at Pinnacle Sports and an $800 bet on Robredo at Expekt and you will make a profit of either $22.50 or $25. Assuming the favourite wins, that is a 2.56% return on investment. English Premiership - Reading Vs Arsenal Pinnacle Sports has odds of 7.00 on Reading to win LadBrokes has odds of 17.00 on a draw Victor Chandler has odds of 1.30 on Arsenal to win 1. $1000 7.00 = $142.85 2. $1000 17.00 = $58.82 3. $1000 1.30 = $769.23 By placing those 3 bets we are committing (140 + 60 + 770) $970 in order to lock in a winnings of either (140 x 7) $980, (60 x 17) $1020, or (770 x 1.3) $1001. If the underdog wins (unlikely), we will make $10 profit. If it is a draw (least likely) we will make $50 profit. If the favourite wins (most likely) we will make $31. Clearly in this arb, as in all arbs, you can change the bets on each side a little in order to affect profits from that outcome. Often the favourite will win, and so people like to bias the bets in the favour of that outcome. However as you can see here, a small increase in the bet on Draw (rounded up from $58.82 to $60) resulted in a large increase in profits for that outcome. Thus in this example it would be possible to place a risk free bet on the draw and make quite a substantial profit. Basic Arbitrage Calculations There are several different ways to calculate arbs. The example on the previous page shows the most straight forward way to calculate exactly how much you will win or lose on a trade. Find your two best odds, pick a value that you want the final winnings to be, divide that figure by each of the two odds, and add those two numbers together. That answer is your investment and the final winnings that you initially chose is how much you will have after the bets have been cleared. If the winnings are greater than the investment, you have an arb. Find your odds: * Victor Chandler = 1.20 * Pinnacle Sports = 8.00 4

Pick your total winnings: * $1000 (this is an arbitrary amount. The higher the sum you pick, the larger the bets and the greater the profit) Calculate: Divide your chosen total winnings amount by each set of odds to get each respective bet amount. Add them together to get your total outlay. ($1000 1.20) + ($1000 8.00) = your total outlay $833.33 + $125.00 = $958.33 You now know exactly how much you are outlaying ($958.33) and how much to bet at each bookie ($833.33 at Victor Chandler, and $125.00 at Pinnacle Sports). Calculating your profit is just as easy: Winnings $1000 Outlay $958.33 = = your total Profit $41.67

And finally, to calculate your return on investment you simply divide your profit by the initial amount invested: $41.67 $958.33 = 4.35% This method does not allow you freedom with your calculations though. If you only had $96.54 in your Pinnacle account, you would not be able to place the $125 dictated by the maths above - you would have to guess and check the 'total winnings' amount in order to find the right volume to match your betting limitations. The method used to make the appropriate calculations for that scenario are explained on the advanced calculations page, using the concepts described below in the Arbitrage Percentage section. Calculating Arbitrage Percentages All arbitrages are expressed as a percentage. Contrary to what you would usually expect, this percentage is not the same as your return on investment. The arbitrage percentage is calculated by dividing 1 by each set of odds and then adding them together. * 1 1.20 = 83.333% * 1 8.00 = 12.5% * 83.333% + 12.5% = 95.833% This percentage, 95.833%, indicates what portion your investment will take up of the total winnings. In other words, if your winnings were to be $1000 as used in the example above, the two bets add up to $958.33, 95.83% of the total winnings. This means that 4.17% of the winnings was not invested, and is therefore left over as profit. Thus, when people refer to arbs as a "95.83% arb" or a "4.17% arb", they are talking about the same thing. Notice that 4.17% is not the same as your return 5

on investment (4.35%) because 4.17% is the percentage of the total winnings, not the percentage of the amount invested. The 5 Risks of Sports Betting Arbitrage... As usual, with any 'Risk Free Offer' being advertised on the net (and Sports Arbitrage is most certainly being advertised a lot on the net) there are risks involved... Conceptually, an arbitrage is an exchange where your profit is known beforehand, the transaction is carried out, and you are guaranteed a payout from one bookmaker or the other which will total more than the outlay. However there are always unforeseen variables which can ruin even the best laid plans. 1. Differing Bookmaker Rules Different bookmakers have different rules for how to handle the outcome in the case of a draw, in the case of a pitcher changing before a baseball game, in the case of extra time in hockey, in the case of an incomplete game of tennis etc. There is a risk one bookmaker will return your money, and the other will act on the bet completely (paying you your winnings, or keeping your money if that bet lost). If there is a difference in rules and one bookmaker acts on the bet while the other simply returns your bet, then you have a 50-50 chance of winning and losing, so it isn't all bad. But it is a risk nonetheless. 2. Palpable Bookmaker Errors All bookmakers have a clause in their terms and conditions which basically states that if they make an 'obvious error' in their odds, they can cancel the bet at any time. This risk manifests itself particularly in arbitrage bets because we are specifically looking for odds which are higher than usual. If one of the odds we have used in an arbitrage trade was in fact a mistake made by the bookmaker and they decide to invoke this rule, we are obviously left with the second bet standing uncovered. This creates a risk as that remaining bet may lose. 3. Dawdling If you place one bet and then take too long to place the second bet, you may be too late to get the correct odds, or you might miss the second bet completely. Missing the second bet leaves you open to potentially losing that bet, but of course, it also leaves you open to potentially winning. Gambling is not the objective of sports betting arbitrage though, so this is a risk. 4. Placing the Wrong Bet Small accidents can cost a lot of money. Thanks to risk number 3, Dawdling, you are invariably in a rush when placing bets, and hence at a risk of making a stupid mistake. For example, if you are betting on an over/under and at one bookmaker both over and under have the same odds it is not uncommon to accidentally back the wrong option and end up with two bets on the same outcome! Rushing and making mistakes is a potential risk. 5. Inexperience 6

Inexperience is probably the biggest risk of all because it manifests itself in all of the above risks either in the creation of the problem, or in the inability to respond to the problem. Not understanding odds, not understanding bet types, not understanding how bookmakers work and not knowing how to react to an unexpected situation means you may lose money. Losing money is precisely what is to be avoided, so inexperience is indeed a risk factor. ...And their 5 Antidotes. The good news of this page is that every one of the risks listed above has a simple solution to minimize or completely remove the potential loss. The great news is that over the long run, statistically speaking, if you only ever backed one side of every arb you will still come out at a profit. Since arbs specifically use odds which give a greater than 100% return on investment, either one or both bets have odds which are greater than the statistical chance of that outcome winning. If you are indiscriminant in your betting (50-50 selection of favourite or underdog) than your long term return would average out at whatever your average arbitrage percentage was. Statistically, stuffing every arb is still winning. However, we don't practice this because like all 'statistically correct' gambling systems, a long losing streak will wipe our bank balance out and we won't be able to place the bets which are meant to win and bring us back to into profit. And so, here are the steps which we need to take in order to avoid the gambling associated risks. More details for each of these steps can be found in the Advanced Guide at http://www.sportsarbitrageguide.com/ 1. Bet Like with Like Learn what rules each bookmaker uses with any sport you are going to bet on. When you have an arb between two bookmakers, make sure both bookmakers use the same rules and there will be no potential loss. 2. Identify potentially bad odds Ultimately the call of 'Palpable or human error' is up to the bookmaker, and there is nothing gamblers, or arbers, can do to change that. However, we can follow a few simple rules for identifying odds which might be errors. Any arb which is 5% or over should arouse an instant suspicion and cause you to look very closely at the odds involved. The most common form of error is reversed odds, where the odds or handicapping of the favourite and underdog have been swapped. Check for this. Are the odds for either of the bookmakers more than 25% higher than odds offered by other books on the same event? It is likely an error if they are. Lastly, do the two books agree on whether the favourite is obvious or not? An obvious favourite/underdog is indicated by odds under 1.85 and over 2.25 respectively. If one book offers odds of 1.90 and the other odds of 2.50, then one book is saying that the game is close (1.90), while the other is saying that the 7

outcome is obvious (2.50 will 'clearly' lose). Only trust arbs where both sets of odds are within the 1.85 and 2.25 range, or both odds are outside of the 1.85 and 2.25 range. That being said, be wary of odds that are identical... 2.20 vs 2.20. It is likely that one bookmaker in that instance has reversed their odds. That is, they have most likely accidentally given the home team the away teams odds and vice versa. 3. Take it slow 4. Paper Trade 5. Trade with small bets These 3 antidotes are all part and parcel of the same solution to the last three risks. In order to move fast, you have to take it slow in the beginning and learn how to do it properly. In the beginning, you need to start 'trading' without actually betting real money. Find the arbs, go through the motions, pretend you are doing it but don't actually bet anything. This is called 'Paper trading'. This allows you to learn how the bookmakers work without risking your money, it builds experience (Risk #5). As you gain some experience you will navigate to the correct destination faster (Risk #3) and place the correct bet more reliably (Risk #4). With the basics under control you will need to progress past paper trading to real money in order to understand how the bet confirmation process takes place, and so trading with very small amounts is a necessary second step. Part of "Take It Slow" should be carried all the way through your arbing career. In the opening months you should triple check everything. * Triple check the arb isn't an obvious error (as described above). * Triple check the odds you have are for the correct bets (1x2? +0.5? -0.5? +0.25? over or under? half time or full time?). * Triple check when the game will be played. Will you be seeing your profits this month? * Triple check you have the right game in the right league with the right teams. * Triple check that the odds at the bookmaker are the odds reported by your alert service. * If they aren't, triple check any re-calculations you make if it is still an arb. * Triple check your bets. Have you placed the right amount in order to maximise the arb? If, after all of that checking everything is still in order, then you very quickly take one reliable bookmaker to the final confirmation page. Go to the second bookmaker and submit that bet. Wait the 2 seconds to make sure that bet has been accepted. As soon as it has been accepted submit the bet at the first bookmaker. 8

Easy isn't it? OK, so Arbitrage may seem difficult in the beginning, and the truth is it has a steep learning curve. But any legitimate opportunity to work at home and make a good profit at the same will always involve real work. Once you master the few basic principles and continually apply the above triple check steps, you will very quickly improve the rate at which you can place an arb. Your mind will be triple checking everything as you go, and you will flow through the whole process without needing to think about it. But in the beginning... you have to take it slow!

Resources
The best overall resource for learning everything there is to know about sport arbitrage including live services that can help you get started is available at: http://www.sportsarbitrageguide.com/