Palestra: Perspectivas de Longo Prazo do Mercado de Soja

Autor: Hunt Stoockey

Perspectivas de Longo Prazo do Mercado de Soja

Presented to Aprosoja
Cuiaba and Rondonopolis, MT April 15 & 16, 2011

Proprietary information not for distribution beyond intended recipient.

1. Resumo das atividades do Highquest

2. Perspectiva de 10 anos do mercado da soja Produo & Preo

3. Desafios dos produtores de Mato Grosso

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Introduo

HighQuest uma consultoria estratgica do mercado global de alimentos e agronegcio mundial

Consulting Focus
o o o Capital Investment / M&A Long Range Strategy / Positioning Organization; Management Processes

Soyatech a lder em informaes globais de gros e oleaginosas

Publishing
o o Soy & Oilseeds Blue Book Directory Soyatech.com web site (daily e-news with 7,500 subscribers)

People
o o o Industry (Bunge; Ralston; Quaker) Academia (U of Illinois) Consulting (Booz Allen; Monitor, SJH)

Conferences 2011
o o o Grains and Oilseeds Summit (St. Louis) Global Soy & Grain Transport (St. Louis) Global AgInvesting (New York; Geneva; Singapore)

Sector Focus
o o Grains; Oilseeds; Feed; Produce Seed Technology; Production; Processing ; Logistics; Marketing

Offices
o o Boston Bar Harbor

Offices
o o Boston St. Louis

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Clientes Mundiais
HighQuest works globally for many of the leading organizations across the sector

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Proprietary information not for distribution. Copyright 2010 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

1. Resumo das atividades do Highquest

2. Perspectiva de 10 anos do mercado da soja Produo & Preo

3. Desafios dos produtores de Mato Grosso

5
Proprietary information not for distribution. Copyright 2010 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

Nossa Viso do Mercado

1.

Nos prximos 10 anos, a produo das principais culturas incluindo a soja no iro manter o crecimento necessrio para atender a demanda Alta demanda ir resultar em 1. altos preos e 2. maior volatilidade em curto prazo
Preos futuros NO sero balizados pelos custos de produo mas pelos custos de novas reas de produo. Os preos necessrios para estimular a nova oferta de gros Vocs, produtores de Soja de Mato Grosso, TEM a capacidade de produzir estas culturas
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2.

3. 4.

5.

Fundamentals

Fatores de demanda Populao

Global Population is projected to increase 32% to 9.1 billion by 2050

World Population Projections

(billions)
9.15

6.51

6.91

7.30

7.67

8.01

8.31

8.57

8.80

9.00

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: UN DESA

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Fatores de Demanda Crescimento da Renda

Rising incomes in the developing world drives increased consumption of animal protein, which drives demand for feed grains; primarily corn, low-grade feed wheat and soybeans

Example: Rising Incomes in China Drive Oilseed Meal Demand

China Animal Protein Demand
100
Consumption per capita (kg)
90

China Oilseed Meal Demand

60 50
40

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5,000 10,000 GDP per capita (PPP) 15,000 20,000

Consumption (MT per 000)

30 20 10 0 0 5,000 10,000 GDP per capita (PPP) 15,000 20,000

Actual Historical Projected

Actual Historical Projected

Source: USDA; IMF; HighQuest Analysis

Source: USDA; IMF; HighQuest Analysis

Rising incomes drive increased animal protein (e.g., beef, pork, poultry, fish) consumption...

...which in turn drives demand for feed crops (e.g., soybean meal which provides the protein in feed rations)
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Fatores de Demanda Crescimento de Renda / China

Over the past 2 decades, as domestic demand has outstripped its domestic productive resources (including water), China has become a major importer of Grains and Oilseeds
Global Soybean Import Demand
(1991-2010 - 000 MT) 160,000

Beans + Meal + Oil

140,000 120,000 100,000
80,000 60,000

China

55% of world trade growth

Rest of World
1991 = 59.2 MT

40,000 20,000 0

1991

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

Sources: USDA; HighQuest Analysis 9

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2010

1994

2001

2008

Demanda Farelo de Soja

Globally soybean meal demand will increase 50% in the next decade
300.000

Global Soybean Meal Demand 1980-2020

245 MMT 164 MMT

250.000

Soybean Meal Consumption (MMT)

200.000

150.000

SE Asia Brazil

Mexico Argentina E Asia Japan Middle East N Africa India S Asia SSA FSU-12 Canada S America

100.000

US
European Union

50.000

China
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

245 MMT of meal = 330 MMT of Production

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Demanda leos Vegetais

Soybean oil production will reach ~ 59 MMT in 2020 but biodiesel will absorb any surplus Oil Production
100.000 90.000

Palm
80.000 70.000

86.580

Soy
60.000 50.000 40.000

58,740

Canola/Rape
30.000 20.000 10.000 27.987 Sunflowerseed

Palm Kernel
Cottonseed Peanut Copra

Source: USDA; HighQuest Analysis

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Oferta Produtividade
Yields have been improving for decades and are expected to continue to do so. However, on a percentage basis, productivity gains have been diminishing
Trailing 10-Year Yield Improvement
0,05 0,04 0,03

Soybeans

Global Yields for 4 Major Crops Historical and Projected (MT / ha)
6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 Corn Rice Wheat Soy

0,02 0,01 0 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5% 4% 3%

Corn

Rice

1,0
0,0

2% 1%

1990

1992

2008

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

0% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Wheat

Source: USDA; HighQuest Analysis

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Oferta rea de produo

Even accounting for anticipated yield improvements, significant new acreage would be required to meet global demand for major row crops over the next decade

Net Additional Acreage Needed by Crop

(2010-2020; million hectares)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20.000 20 10 0 Sorghum Cotton Barley Sunflower Rapeseed Peanut 10.000 0 50.000 40.000 30.000 70.000 60.000

Additional Acreage for 10 Major Crops

2010-2020; 000 Hectares 66.000

48.000

27.000

Wheat

Total

Corn

Soy

Rice

Needed to Meed Demand

USDA Projection

FAPRI Projection

Included Crops are: Soy, Wheat, Corn, Peanut, Rapeseed, Sunseed, Sorghum, Barley, Rice Source: USDA Baseline Projections, FAPRI (Food Agriculture Ppolicy Research Institute); Highquest

Conservatively, an additional ~ 65 million hectares will be needed for 10 major row crops

The ~ 65 million acres needed far exceeds the expectations of leading forecasters

A rea continuar limitando a Oferta pelos prximos 10-15 anos

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Preos
Beginning in the middle of the last decade, the fundamental pricing mechanism changed from Marginal Cost of Production to Reservation Price of the Marginal Consumer. This has resulted in higher and more volatile commodity prices
Soybean & Corn Price Histories
(January 2000 to March 2011 -- Weekly Continuous Near Futures)
18,00 16,00 14,00 12,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00

Soybeans
10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00

Corn
2,00 0,00 1,00 0,00

2007

2008

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2009

2010

Source: CME; NYMEX; HighQuest Partners Analysis

2011

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Preos
Soybean Oil has become closely pegged to Crude Petroleum -- this is a new pricing dynamic
Soybean Oil and Crude Petroleum
(January 2000 to March 2011 -- Weekly Continuous Near Futures)

Soybean Oil vs. Crude Petroleum

(January 2000 to March 2011 -- Weekly Continuous Near Futures)
80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 0,00

80,00
70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00

160,00
140,00 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00

R = 0,78

20,00
10,00 0,00 Jan 97-Dec 06 Correlation = 0.25 Jan 07- Oct 09 Correlation = 0.88

40,00
20,00 0,00

2002

2010

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

Source: CME; NYMEX; HighQuest Partners Analysis

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Proprietary information not for distribution. Copyright 2010 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

1. Resumo das atividades do Highquest

2. Perspectiva de 10 anos do mercado da soja Produo & Preo

3. Desafios dos produtores de Mato Grosso

16
Proprietary information not for distribution. Copyright 2010 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

rea de Soja
In order to meet demand, Soybean acreage must be increased significantly rea de Soja NECESSRIA
2009/10 and 2020/21F (000 ha)
Brazil United States Argentina India China ROW Paraguay Canada Bolivia 0

23.500 39,891? 30.907 31.200 18.600 22.733 9.600 11.000 9.190 9.800 5.493 5.750 2.680 3.700 1.380 1.600 900 900
5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000

2009/2010
2020/2021F

Source: HighQuest Analysis Notes: Harvested Acreage 8 countries account for 95% of world production Assumes trendline yield improvements in each country

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2020 Produo de Soja

Brazil will be the clear leading global soya producer
Global Soybean Production 1998-2020F
350.000
48 MMT

2020/21 330 MMT

300.000 Soybean Production (MMT)

2009/10 260 MMT

66 MMT

250.000
200.000

Argentina
150.000
100.000 50.000 2011/12 2014/15 2017/18
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2012/13 2013/14 2015/16 2016/17 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

117 MMT

Brazil
99 MMT

U.S.

Note: 2008/09 for Argentina adjusted to trendline to account for drought Source: USDA; IMF; OECD; HighQuest Analysis

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Os Desafios de Mato Grosso

Two Questions
1.

Quanto Mato Grosso pode aumentar a rea de soja na prxima dcada?

2.

Quais preos de Soja so necessrios para os produtores de Mato Grosso expandirem a produo agressivamente ?

MT soybeans are the marginal capacity for row crops globally Os preos necessrios para expandir a rea de produo, conduziro os preos futuros para todas as principais culturas na prxima dcada

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Hunt Stookey
Managing Director HighQuest Partners, LLC
978-887-8800
hstookey@highquestpartners.com www.highquestpartners.com

Boston - St. Louis

458 Boston Road, Topsfield, MA 01983 (978) 887 8800 | www.highquestpartners.com