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Imperial College London

Electrical and Electronic Engineering


Second Year Student Initiative FEB 2012

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

Imperial College London Content Page

1. Introduction 2. Current Intelligent Public Transportation Systems A. Singapore B. Zurich C. London

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

3. Interview with Industry Player Cubic Corporation, Cubic Transportation System 4. Proposed Model of Intelligent Public Transportation System A. Informational Interface i. Information Collection 1. Operating Environment 2. Demand Level Assessment 3. Resource Monitoring B. Operation Interface i. Usage of Integrated Information 1. Government 2. Transport Operators 3. End-Users C. System-wide Entity i. Integration of Collected Information ii. Distributive Information Structure 5. A Vision of Future Public Transportation System 6. Conclusion I. Appendix A Congestion Facts and Figures

II. Appendix B Intelligent Transportation Systems III. Appendix C Interview with Land Transport Authority, Singapore IV. Appendix D 2019 Implementation Framework V. References

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

Imperial College London 1. INTRODUCTION

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Many countries now face the challenge of mass transportation while having to deal with severe congestion within their cities. Increasing affluence has resulted in the extensive usage of private vehicles and this growth is overwhelming the transport infrastructure. Carrying capacities of roads were not planned for todays number of vehicles1 and yet, more private vehicles are still being added to the transport network. Public transportation networks were not planned for the rapid increase in population and were often seen as the second-class mode of transport as compared to private vehicles. To cope with the transportation issues, conventional means such as building new transportation infrastructures were often done however long as the number of road users increase, the same problem will resurface. In addition, new infrastructure, such as highways, often requires long project timespan and incurs huge costs when the development occurs within the city. A new solution is urgently needed to deal with the growing demand for transportation. In this research, the group aims to improve public transportation systems using informational resources in three primary aspects, operation environment, demand level assessment, and resource monitoring. The collected information can then be processed by a system-wide entity that then proceeds to distribute the information to transport authorities, transport operators and commuters.


There are many governments around the world that utilise information and communication technologies to increase the efficiency of road networks. Examples of technologies that have been implemented include dynamic traffic lights, road monitoring, demand modelling and passenger journey planners that have been implemented as a mobile application. In particular, countries such as Singapore and Switzerland have implemented an extensive range of ITS solutions to cope with the increasing transportation demand. A. Singapore Land Transport Authority (LTA) In Singapore, the LTA runs an Intelligent Transport Systems Centre that monitors and operates several ITS solutions2. These include the Green Link Determining System (GLIDE) which monitors and optimises green signals on roads, TrafficScan that monitors road conditions, IBMs Symphony E-payment System that manages contactless payment on public transport and many others. Our interviews with a transport planner at LTA revealed that information generated by such systems has been used for modelling from as early as in the 1990s! Even though the information is only updated once a year, it has an accuracy of up to 90%3 for various stages proving the potential of transport modelling using travel data. Furthermore, the system has helped the government in planning infrastructure improvements and to evaluate the impacts of improvements. B. Switzerland, Zurich - ZVV In Zurich, transport operators have implemented a Dynamic Traffic Signal Control which takes in real time traffic conditions from different transport networks and the location of individual transit vehicles. This is then used to establish the most optimal phase and duration of traffic signals. Using the location of the transit vehicle, the system can predict the arrival time of transit vehicles at road junctions up to an accuracy of 1 second4. In addition, an interesting spill over effect of the system is that it also optimises transport networks for private vehicles as the pipelining of vehicles in different road networks has allowed vehicles to utilise green signal time more effectively, resulting in a smoother journey.

In 2008, there were 218,000 vehicles per km of road in Singapore. Refer to reference item 1 Refer to reference item 11 3 Refer to Appendix C 4 Refer to reference item 3

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London C. United Kingdom, London Transport for London (TFL)

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

In London, TFL has implemented an ITS, Automatic Vehicle Location, into an overall bus traffic priority system known as iBus. This system uses GPS detectors to determine the position of the bus and processes this information to control traffic signals. However, such control procedures are individual events that do not relate to other junctions along the transport network. To facilitate the flow of information, the bus locations are shared with the public on the TFLs website5. TFL also monitors the usage of different public transport modes through the conduction of the London Travel Demand Survey6. Here information on the journeys travelled by 8000 households is collected to better manage transportation demand. 3. INTERVIEW WITH INDUSTRY PLAYER Cubic Corporation, Cubic Transportation System (CTS) On the 9th January 2012, our project group was given a rare opportunity to interview CTS at their European Headquarters, where the London Oyster Card Payment System was developed. CTS handles more than 1 billion passengers every year and manages up to 50 million pounds of public transport revenue daily. The interviewees were Mr. Matthew J. Cole, Sr. Vice President of Strategy and Business Development and Mr. Martin Howell, Director of Worldwide Marketing and Communications. CTS agree that information generated by public transportation will be the next edge in optimising public transportation systems. They are currently focusing on the transaction aspect of public transportation, where they aim to create a centralised payment system for each individual using the public transport. Such a centralised payment system could extend to cover various modes of transportation payments, such as payment methods using mobile devices and on account-based payment systems which provide travelling information to passengers. Currently, Oyster card readers on buses store transaction data during the day and upload the transaction information to the back office after the journey, which readers at Tube stations update to the database on a real-time basis. Consolidation of data for TFL is then done overnight. However, Cubic is looking into implementing 3G readers on bus platforms to incorporate a higher communication capacity. As an industry player, they are unwilling to look at other forms of information collection on transport network due to not being part of their companys strategy. However, they are interested in the information that can be collected from different public transport subsystems.


Todays societies are becoming more instrumented, with nearly one billion transistors per human and over 30 billion radio frequency identification tags produced globally. At the same time, the world is also becoming more interconnected, with IP traffic expected to exceed half a zettabyte in three years, thats 1021 bytes!7 In addition, with advanced analytics and supercomputers, organisations and research institutes have been able to process information at resounding speed, providing new insights in computational fields. With such rapid technological developments, Mankind is now witnessing the confluence of three key technological drivers the ability to generate significant amount of data, the means to transmit the data and the capability to process the vast amount of data. Transportation as we know it, is about to change. ITS solutions that were implemented worldwide were initially implemented as stand-alone systems. Opportunities to collect information from ITS platforms were lost and there is also no exchange of information between various systems. As a result, transport authorities and operators are not achieving the full potential of ITS platforms.
5 6

This is available through Transport for Londons Journey Planner Refer to reference item 16 7 Refer to reference item 14

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London Electrical and Electronic Engineering Proposing a Truly Information-Integrated Public Transportation System
In order to utilise information for optimising public transportation, the proposed system is separated into two interfaces, an Informational Interface for collecting information from sensors distributed across subsystems in the transportation network, and a Function Interface for distributing processed information to different end-users. A. Information Interface Under this interface, the system focuses on the role of data collection and refining the data for usage. To fully utilise the collected data, information from different sources must be integrated to allow transport system administrators to get an understanding of a system-wide health status of the transport infrastructure. Moreover, collected data must be interpreted level-wise, to reduce computational demands at data processing layers which are higher up in the informational hierarchy. The three key layers in the proposed informational interface are the Raw Information Layer, Domain Layer and System Layer(Information). In the Domain Layer, information is classified into three main categories; Operating Environment, Demand Level Assessment and Resource Monitoring.

Raw Information Layer

Domain Layer

System Layer (Information)

Physical Road/ Track Network and Conditions Scheduled External Events Operating Environment Real-Time Traffic Status

Travel Profile of Other Vehicles

Passenger Travel History

Crowd Density Levels Demand Level Assessment Event Monitoring


Primitive Location of User

Vehicle Location and Status

On-board Passenger Count Resource Monitoring Staff Deployment

Resource Planning

Figure 1 : System Schematic Showing Information Interface of the Proposed Intelligent Public Transport System

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

I. System Layer (Information) The system layer is the system-wide informational entity that collates processed information from each domain. This information is then analysed and integrated to provide ITS administrators with a situational awareness of the entire public transportation system. Using advanced analytics techniques and high-speed computational systems, ITS administrators will be able to assess the current health conditions of public transportation, predict future changes to transportation systems, and react promptly to any system failures with the appropriate contingent measures. II. Domain Layer The domain layer collates information in each of its three categories; Operating Environment, Demand Level Assessment and Resource Monitoring. Information in these three categories is collated and partially analysed in the Domain Layer for critical, real-time information that requires immediate attention. This is to prevent information choke at the system layer while also providing the general ITS with a certain level of redundancy. III. Raw Information Layer The raw information layer consists of distributed sensors that collect information in the different traffic and transportation subsystems. Sensors are divided into the three categories to facilitate information flow with the Domain Layer. In this section, the report will discuss the various sensors that can be/are already deployed. In addition, technologies that are currently under development will also be discussed. 1. Operating Environment Operating Environment relates to information pertaining to the external conditions surrounding the operation of public transportation systems, such as traffic conditions. The information collected will then reflect the constraints that the public transportation systems operate under, while allowing transport authorities and operators to determine the appropriate limits of operation for their resources. Physical Road/Track Network and Conditions Information on road and track networks have been actively collected and shared by transport authorities and operators8. It is readily found online and in mobile applications. Transport authorities often manage road and track networks through an operational centre or system, such as the Expressway Monitoring Advisory System used in Singapore. This is to Figure 3: Automatic Road Signs facilitate prompt action in a contingent event. Scheduled External Events Planned events also mean that road availability are affected at times, for instance road closures during the New Year Countdown. The collection of this information in the system allows operators to mitigate the effects of such events on commuters. Real-time Traffic Status Information about the level of congestion, average vehicle speeds and traffic incidents is collected in real-time by transport authorities or companies. Current sensing techniques include speed monitoring

Figure 2: Operations Office of the Intelligent Transport System Centre in Singapore

Refer to reference item 17

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London Electrical and Electronic Engineering cameras, induction loops between traffic junctions measuring the average vehicle travel time and GPS-equipped vehicles9.
Under Development Travel Behaviour of All Other Vehicles on Road/Track Vehicle tracking technologies using image recognition, built-in GPS systems and RFID tags provide the possibility of observing the behaviours of all vehicles on the road network. An on-going project is the eCall10. It is a European Commission scheme to equip all new vehicles with mobile connectivity and GPS. 14 countries have signed up for this scheme and it is likely that other countries will sign up as well. Under this scheme, location-based information of the vehicle can be collected and be transmitted via the on-board mobile communication devices. This allows transport authorities to observe general behaviour of the traffic users, to react to ad-hoc variations and predict future load on transport network. 2. Demand Level Assessment Demand Level Assessment relates to information that pertains to the requested level of service from transport operators. Variation in demand across different timings and locations can be monitored and predicted with this information. As a result, with a clear understanding of passenger flow, transport operators will be able to distribute resources more efficiently by providing higher service quality while minimising resource wastage. Passenger Travel History Using the past records of a passengers journey (i.e. Information such as alighting/boarding time and location), simulation models could predict transportation demands in a region and so transport operators will be able to plan the necessary transport service support levels to meet that demand. If records are updated digitally in real-time, it is possible to get real-time predictions of passenger service demands. Currently, transport operators are trying to collect passenger past journey information by using incentives such as subsidised transport costs to attract commuters to record their journeys in a travel record card. However, this method does not sample the entire commuter population, nor does it reflect the ad-hoc variation in demand levels. A new technology that has been gaining momentum is the usage of contactless payment methods. Through the contactless payment systems implemented by Transport for London and Land Transport Authority of Singapore, commuters travel records are stored real-time in digital databases. This can be used in demand monitoring for statistical models. By having a record of travel history, transport operators will be able to charge a flexible fare for transiting commuters to appeal to a larger group of commuters and to reduce car ridership. Currently, records are only examined periodically, instead of a real-time basis. As a result, only routine trends such as daily commuting to and from school/work are captured in the system. However, unexpected changes in demands are not met by corresponding changes in supplied transport resources resulting in resource wastage. Passenger travel history should be examined in real-time in order to reflect any immediate change in passenger commuting demands. Crowd Density Level in Hot Regions Crowds sensors could be placed in crowd-prone areas to raise alerts when crowd levels have rose to a certain threshold and thus the area is likely to require more transportation services and support. Automatic crowd-sensing devices have been built and are now pending patent application.11

Refer to reference item 2 Refer to reference item 12 11 Refer to reference item 18


Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London Electrical and Electronic Engineering In crowded areas, such as Oxford Circus, such crowd-based sensors could be integrated with existing security cameras using image processing algorithms to track the level of crowd in separate timeframes. With such information, transport systems are able to predict short-term changes in passenger commuting demand within 15 to 120 minutes.
Event Monitoring Information about events happening across the city should be taken into account when predicting the demand level in a given area. For instance, the ending time of a rock concert or soccer match is a good indicator that service demands in the region will peak rapidly. Moreover, demand variation can also be due to long term events such as seasonal changes, resulting in changing commuter profiles (i.e. Varying percentage of commuters who are tourists tend to peak during holiday periods). This information about events across a country is often widely available in public. In addition, previous trends in variation of transport demands have been recorded and investigated. This information can be used to predict changes in demand levels over a long period of time. Primitive Location of Users By knowing where passengers alight in real-time, transport operators can provide a rough estimate on the level of crowd in an area. If the travel history of such commuters is available, this information can be used to predict levels of passenger flow for return journeys. For instance, we can predict the departure time of any individual alighting at South Kensington by the general trend of their travel history. In Development User Service Demand In the near future, mobile phones, digital security and widespread use of mobile internet are likely to provide commuters with another form of payment method for public transit, such as the NextVision system that is being planned by Cubic Corporation. Instead of waiting at the bus stop for their buses, commuters could instead pay for pre-booked bus trips using their mobile phone ahead of the trip. For instance, work-related trips could be pre-booked online, with updates confirming their trip timings. In return, transport operators will provide reliable estimated arrival timings and also estimated journey time information. Pre-booking of trips has been implemented for long distance train journeys and flights due to high resource costs and low passenger counts per route. This technology could be implemented for public transport, should it be deemed convenient enough for the general user and mutually beneficial to both commuters and transport operators. In Development Location of Users In the near future, location-based information of users could be accessed via voluntary public participation programmes or through location-based information collected as a by-product of mobile communications. Knowing where a particular commuter might be will allow the system to better understand the commuters behaviours and allow transport operators to plan their resources in order to match demand better. 3. Resource Monitoring Resource Monitoring relates to information about the resources managed by transport operators. The collection of this information allows transport operators to plan transport operations more efficiently and to react rapidly to any sudden fluctuations in the transport networks. In addition, this information should be made available to the System Layer for transport authorities to understand the resource capacity of the transport network in order to deal with any contingent situations, as well as to plan future improvements in transportation. Vehicle Location and Status Transport operators have implemented fleet management systems to monitor their capability, in order to deploy vehicles to take different scheduled passenger loads and also to provide contingency measures during emergencies, such as metro breakdowns. Resource Planning Information that pertains to capacity resource planning by transport companies to deal with future demands should be captured in the system to estimate the robustness of the transport system.

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London Electrical and Electronic Engineering On-board Passenger Count Information in the on-board passenger count provides transport operators an idea of the load on their fleets, allowing them to adjust supply.
Staff Deployment Other than knowing their physical resources, transport operators must also be aware of their human resources. Vehicle captains and fleet support personnel are very crucial to the system as they cannot be deployed without intermittent breaks or without sufficiently early notifications. B) Operation Interface In this interface, the system determines the optimal reactions to be taken by different ITS subsystems, based on the processed information from the informational interface. Decision making processes will be conducted in separate layers such that each controller has autonomy over the subsystems that they control. In addition, this introduces a certain degree of redundancy to the system as subsystems which are critical to the operation of transportation networks are isolated from each other. The three key layers in the function interface are; System Layer (Operation), Controller Layer and Function Layer. In the User Layer, processed information and decision making processes are further divided into three categories; Government/Transport Authorities, Transport Operators and Passengers.

System Layer (Operation)

User Layer

Function Layer

Land-use and Transport Planning Traffic Signal Control Government / Transport Authorities Policy and Regulation Planning Benchmarking / Performance Indicator Vehicle Management Personnel Management SYSTEM-WIDE INTEGRATION OF INFORMATION Transport Operators Seamless Transits Flexible Fares Dynamic Routing Information-Assisted Journey Planning Passenger Route Condition Awareness

Figure 4 : System Schematic Showing Operation Interface of the Proposed Intelligent Public Transport System

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London I. System Layer (Operation)

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Using the generated models and processed information from the information interface, system-wide decision making can be implemented at this stage to determine the overall condition of the public transportation system. Filtered information and general instructions on the current state of the public transportation conditions can then be distributed to the User Layer. For instance, the need for diversion of vehicles from a region can be set up as a general flag in this layer. II. Controller Layer In the User Layer, the three users Government/Transport Authorities, Transport Operators and Passengers can act on the information and instruction sent by the system layer. They will generate specific instructions and conduct decision-making processes to control the various subsystems that they are tasked with. For instance, after the system flags the need to divert vehicles from a region, the Transport Authorities controllers can decide to set up automated road warning signboards to divert vehicles away from a region using electronic signboard systems. III. Function Layer The function layer consists of all the ITS divisions and subsystems that are incorporated into the transportation network to optimise the transport network. Subsystems are divided according to their controller under the User Layer. In this section, the report will briefly discuss the role of each subsystem. 1. Government/Transport Authorities Land-use and Transport Modelling Division Information report generated by the information interface can be used by land and transport planners to create urban models that capture transport trends and predict future population behaviour. This allows planners to make optimal decisions in urban planning. Dynamic Traffic Signal Control Subsystem This subsystem controls the period and phase relations between different traffic junctions depending on the traffic controls. This is to optimise the use of green signal time for public vehicles and to create a smoother driving experience for private car drivers. Policy and Regulation Planning Division Information reports generated by the system interface can be used to gauge if the current traffic regulations or policy for the traffic load is appropriate. For instance, transport decisions such as traffic calming12 for a roadway can be taken after reviewing results from the system. Benchmarking / Key Performance Indicator Subsystem Information collected from the system can also be used as a benchmark to determine the efficiency of the transport network as a whole, the effectiveness of different improvements and implemented policies 2. Transport Operators Fleet and Personnel Management Subsystem This subsystem uses the assessment of ad-hoc, short-term and long-term demands provided by the information interface to advise and help transport operators plan vehicle and personnel resources. Seamless Transit Subsystem Using the information provided by the system-wide entity, this subsystem will be able to minimise variation in transit journey times based on expected demand levels and current traffic conditions. As a result, it is possible to plan for seamless transit between different public transportation modes (inter-transportation and intra-transportation) and between different transport operators. Passengers requiring

Figure 5 : Electronic Signboard Systems


Traffic calming refers to the process for regulating vehicles such that traffic flow is slower

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Imperial College London Electrical and Electronic Engineering transits can be shifted from one destination to another with minimal disruption and crowd levels at transit points can be reduced.
Flexible Fares With sufficient information, transport operators will be able to implement flexible fares for commuters who take public transport during peak hours or off-peak hours. In addition, passengers with indirect journeys will not have to pay the full fare of another trip. This has shown to encourage public transportation ridership levels in many cities. Dynamic Routing Subsystem With a robust real-time information interface, buses will be able to use semidynamic bus routes where certain bus stop points and congested road networks could be avoided entirely. This information will also be made available to commuters at the various bus stops. 3. Commuters Information-Assisted Journey Planner Such systems are very much like the applications already provided in platforms such as the Android and IPhone. However, with the information interface processing information in real-time, commuters will be able to get more reliable journey predictions and estimations. User Service Request Using booking systems, commuters will be able to pre-book public transport journeys prior to the trip. This can be forecasted weeks or months before the actual journey and allow transport operators to better plan their resources. C. System-wide Entity Through merging the information and operation interface, information flow to decision-making process is streamlined into a collection of subsystems. Information gathered from distributed sensors will be processed into instructions. The interplay of reactions between the public transportation network and the instructions will provide more information into the system. This closed-loop system allows transport authorities and transport operators to continuously upgrade and update their system. An implementation framework is available in the appendix.

Figure 6: Schematic Showing Entire Layout of Intelligent Public Transportation System

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Autonomous vehicles, green transport and smart cities will shape the future of urban transport. However, given the current technology, infrastructure and levels, there is a significant gap between the envisioned future technologies and what we have now. This gap can be bridged by the proposed integrated information system and in particular, through two revolutionary technologies in mass transport Dynamic Bus Routing Subsystem and User Service Request. Through the simultaneous implementation of these two subsystems, transport operators will be able to gauge transport demand ahead of schedule and plan buses with dynamic routing to meet the increased demand in certain areas. These buses could operate with no bus numbers and offer ad-hoc routes to fulfil sudden variations in travel demands.

Conventional Routing
No User No User


Dynamic Routing
No User No User


These buses can operate in parallel with the current fixed-route bus systems so commuters are able to hop onto such buses through directions given by the User Service Request subsystem. As a result, transport operators will be able to fulfil more service requests, increase efficiency and reduce wastage while still maintaining a smaller pool of resources. This vision will require a rethink of how public transport works and to subsequently change the publics general mind-sets. However, we have learnt from other cities which have implemented ITS solutions that providing the public with adequate information will result in people growing more agreeable to such changes. 13 6. CONCLUSION In conclusion, improvements in the area of public transportation are pertinent to a citys future developments. However, given that it is resource-challenging for many cities under land constrains and high private vehicle ridership to utilise current improvements, it is necessary for transport authorities to consider of capitalising on informational resources in order to improve public transportation. Currently, many of the subsystems have already been implemented in various different transportation systems worldwide. Such subsystems have provided a significant boost to the profitability of both the transport industries and the commuters travel experience. We believe that the time is now ripe to harvest the vast informational resources that ITS systems are generating. The efficient processing of such information will facilitate fast transport networks. It is therefore essential that world leading cities incorporate such a system.

Refer to reference item 7

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

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Publics Opinion to the Extent of Congestion in the United Kingdom

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Figure 7: Table showing the Percentage of UK Residents on their Opinion of the Severity of Congestion

Figure 8: Opinion Poll about the Predict Extent of Congestion Over the Next 2 Years

A majority of UK residents feel that congestion is a problem in the United Kingdom. Opinion poll shows that over 70% of the population feel that congestion is a serious or very serious problem. In addition, many of them do not expect congestion to improve over the next 2 years.14

IBMs Review of Congestion in Different Countries Worldwide

Figure 9: IBM's Consumer Poll of Congestion in Different Cities

IBM conducted an international survey called the Commuter Pain Survey to find out more on commuters general transportation satisfaction levels.15 It can be observed in this diagram that developing countries have a greater transportation challenge to overcome. Already 70% of the populace in UK find that congestion is a problem, hence, one can only imagine the severity of congestion in the other cities.
14 15

Refer to reference item 5 Refer to reference item 10

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System


Automatic Vehicle Location Subsystem

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Figure 10: Diagram on Operation of Automatic Vehicle Location

In an automatic vehicle location system, transit vehicles are equipped with GPS systems that relay the information through a receiver station that passes the information back to a dispatch centre.

Traffic Signal Priority Subsystem

Figure 11: Diagram Showing an Implementation of Transit Priority

This diagram shows a similar kind of traffic signal priority subsystem that is being used in Zurich. As the transit vehicle draw nears to a junction, the emitter notifies a traffic signal controller. The controller then determines the most appropriate traffic light status for the transit vehicle to pass with the least time spent.


Refer to reference item 6

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

Our Ref: LTA/P&P/TPL/SPL/F20.000.000/799 Date : 14-Dec-2011 Tel : 63961843 Fax : 63961754 Dear Mr Leow Enquiries on Traffic and Public Transport Modeling FEEDBACK NUMBER: 20111205-0100 We refer to your email of 05 December 2011. We studied your questions and provided our responses in blue below. General Traffic Modeling: 1. How is LTA currently modeling general transport network demands and usage? For middle to long term planning, LTA has developed a multi-modal transport model forecasting the future travel demand based on planning parameters, population and employment distribution provided by other Landuse agencies. The model forecasted both private transport and public transport demand. The model is calibrated using various data sources including travel surveys, traffic counts and ticketing system (EIFS - Electronic Integrated Fare System). The EIFS system is a database containing journey information of public transport users through the use of their contactless cards for public transport fare payment. The information is used to understand the travelling patterns and behaviour of Singaporeans. 2. Is the model updated with real-time information? The model is not updated in real time. However the model is updated every year. 3. Is the system integrated with other systems that optimise public transport resources such as MRTs and Taxis? LTA has a regulatory arm that monitors the operating and service quality standards. LTA monitors the public transport operators performances with respect to these standards to ensure compliance. These standards may be monitored daily or monthly and reported monthly or quarterly.

Public Transport Modeling: 1. How does LTA predict public transport usages? Please refer to response to question 1 above. 2. When did Singapore first start modeling public transportation networks and how successful was the system? Singapore started public transport modelling in the early 90s and has sought for continual improvement in this field. We are able to use the model to plan for infrastructural improvements required to meet the growing travel demand over the years. The model is also used to derive information for economic and financial evaluation of new infrastructure to facilitate decisions making. 3. What sort of information is used in the previous model and the new models? New sources of information are included in the calibration process to enhance the accuracy of the transport model whenever it is relevant and available. Examples of this information include the EIFS data and ERP data. 4. How accurate have the current models been? We have target to have an accuracy of about 90% for various stages of the transport modelling process. We hope the above information is useful for you and we thank you for writing in. Yours sincerely DANIEL QUEK GIM SAN TRANSPORT PLANNER

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

DYNAMIC PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION 2019 FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT STAGE SUB-PHASE SYSTEMS FOCUS Trams / Train Buses Evaluation Cabs / Taxi Mobility-on-demand PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF OVERALL SYSTEM Existing Subsystems Integration Framework Planning Proposed Subsystems Integratability Educating Public Policy Planning and Revising Policy Planning Jan 2013 May 2013 PHASE 1 Sep 2013 Feb 2014 Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Mar 2015 Jul 2015 Nov 2015 PHASE II Mar 2016 Aug 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 May 2017 Oct 2017 Feb 2018 PHASE III Jul 2018 Dec 2018

Contract Tendering Prototyping / Trial Area-wide Implementation Prototyping / Trial Function Layer INITIAL INTEGRATION STAGE Domain Layer Area-wide Implementation Initial Information Integration with Raw Information Layer Subsystem Initial Information Integration with Function Layer Subsystems

Raw Information Layer

User Layer

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

Imperial College London

SYSTEM-WIDE INTEGRATION SCALING OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS Overall System-wide Entity Integration Evaluation of System-wide Entity Upgrading Exisiting Infrastructure Integration with other Transport Frameworks

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System

Imperial College London REFERENCES

Electrical and Electronic Engineering

(1) The World Bank: Vehicle Per Km of Road. [Online] Available from: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.ROAD.K1/countries?display=default [Accessed 10 Jan 2012]. (2) Intelligent Transportation System. [Online] Available from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_transportation_system [Accessed 12 Jan 2012]. (3) Andrew Butler Nash and Ronald Sylvia. Implementation of Zurich's Transit Priority Program. 2001. (4) Cubic Transportation Systems. NextCity - Keeping Tomorrow on the Move. (5) Department for Transport U. Public Attitudes Towards Road Congestion. ; 2010. (6) Federal Transit Adminstration, U.S Department of Transportation. Transit Core Technologies. [Online] Available from: http://www.pcb.its.dot.gov/factsheets/core.asp [Accessed 16 Jan 2012]. (7) Gopinath Menon and Loh Chow Kuang. Lessons from Bus Operations. ; 2006. (8) IBM. Delivering Intelligent Transport Systems: Driving Integration and Innovations. IBM Corporation; 2007. (9) Jamie Houghton, John Reiners and Colin Lim. Intelligent Transport - How cities can improve mobility? USA: IBM Corporation; 2009. (10) Kalman Gyimesi, Charles Vincent and Naveen Lamba. Frustration Rising: IBM 2011 Commuter Pain Survey. IBM; 2011. (11) Land Transport Authority S. Intelligent Transport Systems. [Online] Available from: http://www.onemotoring.com.sg/publish/onemotoring/en/on_the_roads/traffic_management/intelligent_transport _systems.html [Accessed 12 January 2012]. (12) Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology. Postnote on Intelligent Transport Systems. Trans UK Parliament. ; 2009. (13) Ryan C.C Chin. Reinventing the Automobile: Personal Urban Mobility for the 21st Century. Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Media Lab; 2011. (14) Samuel J. Palmisano. A Smart Transportation System: Improving Mobility for the 21st Century. Intelligent Transportation Society of America, 2010 Annual Meeting & Conference, Houston, Texas, May 5, 2010. (15) Silvester Prakasam. The Evolution of e-payments in Public TransportSingapores Experience. Japan Railway & Transport Review 2008(50). (16) Transport for London. Brochure on London Travel Demand Survey. (17) Transport for London. London's Register of Roadworks. [Online] Available from: http://public.londonworks.gov.uk [Accessed 12 Jan 2012]. (18) Li-Qun Xu and Arasanathan Anjulan. Crowd Congestion Analysis Patent Application. [Online] Available from: http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20100322516 [Accessed 20 Feb 2012].

Concept Paper on Dynamic Public Transportation System