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Page 2 of 6
Executive Summary
2009 was a record year for offshore wind investment, which ABS feels is unwarranted given
the major bottlenecks in the offshore supply chain a lack of offshore vessels and subsea
cabling. In the onshore sector there are no immediate supply chain bottlenecks. However,
the growing trend towards large scale turbines may be slowed somewhat in 2010 due to the
logistics of transporting large, bulky turbines and the high costs involved. Additionally, larger
turbines require the use of expensive carbon fibres and specialised plastics to replace cheap
glass fibre used in small scale turbines. Supplies of carbon fibres may hit a bottleneck by
2017.
With the sector entering the mature phase, there is a greater pressure towards the standardisation of components especially because of the sectors high operating and maintenance costs. To reduce high O&M costs many developers are opting to purchase gearless
rather than geared turbines. However, gearless turbines use neodymium, which hit the
headlines recently due to concerns that Chinas export policy for rare earth metals would
lead to near term supply shortages.
On the plus side, for European and American manufacturers, competition from manufacturers shipping products from India and China is unlikely to affect their dominance in local
markets. Due to the high costs of transporting turbines and towers, and uncertainty over
whether carbon emissions reductions will apply to the shipping sector, localised supply
chains will be the future of the sector. Complete supply chains have already formed in North
America, Europe and Asia.
Overall 2010 is expected to be a good year for the wind sector, especially in the China, the
USA and Eastern Europe.
Lack of access to financing and poor grid infrastructure still remains as the biggest barrier to
project development.
Page 3 of 6
Page 4 of 6
Page 5 of 6
More M&As to secure local supply chains for wind turbine manufacturers.
Expect growth in cold weather countries following the development of cold resilient turbines, Finland and Russia, for example.
Page 6 of 6
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 41
Wind power development in 2009 ................................ ................................ .............. 41
Wind power development in 2010 ................................ ................................ .............. 42
Outlook to 2012 ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 42
Offshore developments to 2012 ................................ ................................ .................. 43
Long term outlook: 2020. ................................ ................................ ............................ 43
Renewables subsidies................................ ................................ ................................ .. 44
Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 44
Developers ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 45
Turbine technology ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 45
1
1.2
1.2.2
1.2.3
1.2.4
1.2.5
1.2.6
3.1.2
3.1.3
3.1.4
Page 3 of 695
3.2
3.1.5
3.1.6
3.1.7
3.1.8
3.1.9
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.2.4
3.2.5
3.2.6
3.2.7
3.2.8
3.2.9
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.4
3.3.5
3.3.6
3.3.7
3.3.8
3.3.9
Page 4 of 695
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
3.4.5
3.4.6
3.4.7
3.4.8
4.2
4.3
The evolution of RPS Policy in the United States ................................ ............ 131
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
National wind power markets and support plans: Major markets ........................... 137
5.1
5.1.2
5.1.3
Page 5 of 695
5.1.4
5.1.5
5.1.6
5.1.7
5.1.8
5.1.9
5.1.11.2
5.1.11.3
Page 6 of 695
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
5.2.5
5.2.6
5.2.7
5.2.8
5.2.9
5.2.20.2
5.2.20.3
5.2.20.4
Page 7 of 695
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
5.3.5
5.3.6
5.3.7
5.3.8
5.3.9
Page 8 of 695
5.4
5.5
5.4.2
5.4.3
5.4.4
5.4.5
5.4.6
5.4.7
5.4.8
5.4.8.2
5.4.8.3
5.4.8.4
5.4.8.5
5.5.2
5.5.3
5.5.4
5.5.5
5.5.6
5.5.6.2
5.5.6.3
5.5.6.4
5.5.6.5
5.5.6.6
5.5.6.7
Page 9 of 695
5.5.7
5.5.6.8
5.5.6.9
5.5.8
5.5.9
6
5.5.8.2
National wind power markets and support plans; Intermediate countries Europe ...................................................................................................................... 281
6.1
6.2
6.1.2
6.1.3
6.1.4
6.1.5
6.2.2
6.2.3
6.2.4
6.2.5
6.2.6
6.2.7
6.2.8
6.2.9
Page 10 of 695
6.2.15.2
6.2.15.3
6.2.15.4
6.2.15.5
6.2.15.6
6.2.15.7
6.2.15.8
6.2.15.9
6.2.17.2
6.2.17.3
6.2.17.4
6.2.17.5
Page 11 of 695
6.2.17.6
6.2.17.7
6.2.17.8
6.2.17.9
Page 12 of 695
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.3.2
6.3.3
6.3.4
6.3.5
6.3.6
6.3.6.2
6.3.7
6.3.8
6.4.2
6.4.3
6.4.4
6.4.5
6.4.6
6.4.7
6.4.8
6.5.2
6.5.3
6.5.4
6.5.5
6.5.6
6.5.7
6.6.2
Page 13 of 695
6.6.3
6.6.4
6.6.5
6.6.6
6.6.7
6.6.8
6.7
6.7.2
6.7.3
6.7.4
6.7.5
6.7.6
6.7.7
6.7.8
6.7.9
6.8
6.8.2
6.8.3
6.9
6.9.2
6.9.3
6.9.4
6.9.5
6.9.6
6.10
Page 14 of 695
Page 15 of 695
7.1.2
7.1.3
7.1.4
7.1.5
7.1.6
7.1.7
7.1.8
7.1.9
7.2.2
7.2.3
7.2.4
7.2.5
7.2.6
Page 16 of 695
7.2.7
7.2.8
7.2.9
7.3.2
7.3.3
7.3.4
7.3.5
7.3.6
7.3.7
7.3.8
7.3.9
7.3.8.1
7.3.8.2
7.3.8.3
7.3.8.4
7.4.2
7.4.3
7.4.4
7.4.5
7.4.6
7.4.7
Page 17 of 695
7.4.8
8
8.2
8.1.2
8.1.3
8.2.2
8.2.3
8.2.4
8.2.5
8.2.6
8.2.7
National wind power markets and support plans Intermediate countries Americas ................................................................................................................... 490
9.1
9.2
9.1.2
9.1.3
9.1.4
9.1.5
9.1.6
9.1.7
9.1.8
9.2.2
Page 18 of 695
9.2.3
9.2.4
9.2.5
9.2.6
9.2.7
9.2.8
9.2.9
Page 19 of 695
10.8
Page 20 of 695
11.2
12.2
12.3
12.5
12.7
Page 21 of 695
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
15.8
15.9
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
Page 22 of 695
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.5
23.6
23.7
Page 23 of 695
24 Repowering............................................................................................................... 675
24.1
24.2
25 Forecasting a new technology - Experience Curves and Progress Ratios (PR)........... 681
26 Development of wind turbine size............................................................................ 684
26.1
26.2
27.2
27.3
Page 24 of 695
27.4
Page 25 of 695
List of Figures
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Development of installed capacity from 2000, MW, next five countries ........ 49
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
Figure 9.
Figure 10.
Figure 11.
Figure 12.
Wind capacity that needs to be installed per year in a high scenario, MW .... 90
Figure 13.
Capacity for low and high scenarios for both onshore and offshore wind
in the EU, MW................................ ................................ ............................... 91
Figure 14.
Figure 15.
Figure 16.
Figure 17.
Capital costs of onshore and offshore wind in the EU, /kW ......................... 96
Figure 18.
Figure 19.
Figure 20.
Figure 21.
Growth in wind power capacity in the United States, MW, 2000-2020........ 141
Figure 22.
Objectives of wind power development in the United States to 2010 ......... 142
Figure 23.
Installed capacity in the United States, by state, MW, end 2009.................. 143
Figure 24.
Estimates of Windy 1 Land Area and Wind Energy Potential by State for
Areas >= 30% Capacity Factor at 80m, February 4, 2010, MW ..................... 144
Page 26 of 695
Figure 25.
Figure 26.
Figure 27.
Figure 28.
Onshore and offshore wind resources in the United States ......................... 155
Figure 29.
Figure 30.
Figure 31.
Figure 32.
Figure 33.
Market share of installations in the United States, by MW, 2005 - 2009...... 164
Figure 34.
Figure 35.
Breakdown of companies in the wind power supply chain in each state...... 166
Figure 36.
Major owners of wind facilties in the United States, end 2009 .................... 169
Figure 37.
Figure 38.
Figure 39.
Figure 40.
Figure 41.
Figure 42.
Figure 43.
Figure 44.
Figure 45.
Figure 46.
Figure 47.
Growth of the wind power market in Germany, MW, 2000-2020 ................ 214
Figure 48.
Figure 49.
German North Sea and Baltic Sea development status, Q1 2010................. 223
Page 27 of 695
Figure 50.
Figure 51.
Figure 52.
Figure 53.
Installed wind capacity in German states, end 2009 ................................ .... 228
Figure 54.
Figure 55.
Figure 56.
Figure 57.
Figure 58.
Figure 59.
The growth of the wind power market in Spain, MW, 2000-2020................ 241
Figure 60.
Figure 61.
Figure 62.
Figure 63.
Figure 64.
Figure 65.
Wind turbine size in Spain, MW, 1995 to 2008 ................................ ............ 255
Figure 66.
The growth of wind power capacity in India, MW, 2000 - 2020 ................... 259
Figure 67.
Figure 68.
Figure 69.
Figure 70.
Figure 71.
Figure 72.
Figure 73.
Figure 74.
Growth of the wind power market in Denmark, MW, 1990-2012 ................ 288
Figure 75.
Page 28 of 695
Figure 76.
Figure 77.
Number of wind turbines and capacity in Denmark (MW), 1977 to 2007 .... 292
Figure 78.
Figure 79.
Figure 80.
Figure 81.
Generation of electricity from biomass in Denmark, GWh, 1980 to 2007 .... 297
Figure 82.
Figure 83.
Figure 84.
Figure 85.
Figure 86.
Figure 87.
Figure 88.
Figure 89.
Figure 90.
Figure 91.
Figure 92.
Figure 93.
Figure 94.
Figure 95.
Figure 96.
Figure 97.
Figure 98.
Figure 99.
Figure 100.
Market share of installed wind turbines manufacturers in Italy 2008, MW.. 377
Figure 101.
Page 29 of 695
Figure 102.
Figure 103.
Figure 104.
Figure 105.
Projected installed wind power capacity in Norway, MW, 1990-2012 ......... 390
Figure 106.
Figure 107.
Offshore wind farm connection vision until 2030 ................................ ..... 397
Figure 108.
Offshore wind farm connection - vision until 2050 ................................ ...... 397
Figure 109.
Figure 110.
Figure 111.
Figure 112.
Figure 113.
Figure 114.
Figure 115.
Figure 116.
Figure 117.
Figure 118.
Figure 119.
Growth in wind power capacity in the United Kingdom, MW, 1990-2012.... 423
Figure 120.
Figure 121.
Figure 122.
Figure 123.
Figure 124.
Round 3 annual build out profile for the 32 GW awarded ........................... 436
Figure 125.
Figure 126.
Figure 127.
Figure 128.
Page 30 of 695
Figure 129.
Figure 130.
Figure 131.
Figure 132.
Figure 133.
Figure 134.
Figure 135.
Figure 136.
Figure 137.
Figure 138.
Figure 139.
Figure 140.
Figure 141.
Figure 142.
The growth of wind power capacity in Brazil, MW, 2004-2012 .................... 490
Figure 143.
Figure 144.
Map of installed energy capacity and energy reserves in Canada, 2008....... 498
Figure 145.
The growth of wind power capacity in Canada, MW, 1990-2012 ................. 499
Figure 146.
Figure 147.
Figure 148.
Map of mean wind speed at 50 metres above ground in Canada ................ 508
Figure 149.
Figure 150.
Figure 151.
Figure 152.
Figure 153.
Manufacturers market share in the Czech Republic, end 2009 .................... 521
Figure 154.
Average turbine size of new installed capacity in the Czech Republic, kW ... 522
Figure 155.
Figure 156.
Page 31 of 695
Figure 157.
Figure 158.
Figure 159.
Figure 160.
Figure 161.
Figure 162.
Figure 163.
Figure 164.
Figure 165.
Figure 166.
Figure 167.
Figure 168.
Figure 169.
Figure 170.
Figure 171.
Figure 172.
Electricity generator Trust Fund is major relailer in New Zealand ................ 547
Figure 173.
Figure 174.
Figure 175.
Figure 176.
Figure 177.
Steel and copper prices compared to the 2008 peak, % .............................. 569
Figure 178.
Figure 179.
Figure 180.
Figure 181.
Figure 182.
Figure 183.
Figure 184.
Page 32 of 695
Figure 185.
Figure 186.
Figure 187.
Figure 188.
Figure 189.
Figure 190.
Figure 191.
Figure 192.
Figure 193.
Figure 194.
Global market share of wind turbine manufacturers 2005 2008, % .......... 619
Figure 195.
Global market share of the top ten wind turbine manufacturers, 2009,% ... 620
Figure 196.
Figure 197.
Figure 198.
Figure 199.
Figure 200.
Figure 201.
Figure 202.
Figure 203.
Figure 204.
Figure 205.
Figure 206.
Figure 207.
Investment in wind farms, million per MW, 2009 prices ........................... 660
Figure 208.
ETP BLUE Map scenario projections for the development of onshore and
offshore wind investment costs ($ million/MW)................................ .......... 662
Figure 209.
Figure 210.
Figure 211.
Page 33 of 695
Figure 212.
Plans for an offshore grid in the North Sea and the Mediterranean............. 673
Figure 213.
Figure 214.
Figure 215.
Price of used turbines compared to the price when new, % ........................ 678
Figure 216.
Figure 217.
Figure 218.
Figure 219.
Figure 220.
Expected market increase to meet demand for larger turbines ................... 688
Figure 221.
Average wind turbine size for new offshore capacity additions, MW........... 689
Figure 222.
Average wind turbine size for new offshore capacity additions in Europe,
MW................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 689
Figure 223.
Figure 224.
Figure 225.
Siemens 3.6 MW gearless turbine A and Siemens geared turbine B ............ 693
Page 34 of 695
List of Tables
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
Table 6.
Table 7.
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Table 11.
Table 12.
Table 13.
Wind projects completed in the United States, 2009, >5MW ...................... 145
Table 14.
Table 15.
The ten largest wind farms operating in the United States, Q1 2010 ........... 152
Table 16.
Table 17.
Table 18.
Major owners of wind facilties in the United States, end 2009 .................... 168
Table 19.
Sales of small wind turbines in the United States, units, 2008 ..................... 170
Table 20.
Table 21.
Table 22.
Table 23.
Table 24.
Table 25.
Table 26.
Page 35 of 695
Table 27.
Table 28.
Table 29.
Table 30.
Table 31.
Table 32.
Table 33.
Table 34.
Table 35.
Table 36.
Table 37.
Table 38.
Table 39.
Table 40.
Table 41.
Table 42.
Table 43.
Loan schemes offered by IREDA for development of wind power, 2009...... 268
Table 44.
Table 45.
Table 46.
Table 47.
Table 48.
Number, capacity and average size of turbines installed annually ............... 342
Table 49.
Table 50.
Page 36 of 695
Table 51.
Table 52.
Major wind farms in Greece > 10 MW, end March 2010.............................. 358
Table 53.
Table 54.
Overall net cost benefit of 1,000 MW of additional offshore wind capacity. 365
Table 55.
Table 56.
Table 57.
Table 58.
Table 59.
Wind farms in the Netherlands > 20 MW, end 2009................................ .... 385
Table 60.
Table 61.
Table 62.
Table 63.
Table 64.
Table 65.
Table 66.
Planned wind projects >10 MW, January 2010 ................................ ............ 411
Table 67.
Table 68.
Table 69.
Table 70.
Status of wind farm development in the UK, MW, April 2010...................... 424
Table 71.
Table 72.
New projects entering planning in the UK since the last report ................... 428
Table 73.
Table 74.
Table 75.
Offshore wind farms planned in the UK, 2009 ................................ ............. 439
Table 76.
Table 77.
Page 37 of 695
Table 78.
Table 79.
Table 80.
Utility feed-in tariffs for different states, 2010 ................................ ............ 453
Table 81.
Operational wind farms in South Korea, end 2009 ................................ ...... 466
Table 82.
Table 83.
Table 84.
Table 85.
Table 86.
Table 87.
Table 88.
Table 89.
Table 90.
Table 91.
Table 92.
Planned capacity in the north east region of Bulgaria, end 2009 ................. 516
Table 93.
Table 94.
Table 95.
Table 96.
Table 97.
Table 98.
Table 99.
Table 100.
Table 101.
Table 102.
Table 103.
Table 104.
Table 105.
Page 38 of 695
Table 106.
Table 107.
Table 108.
Table 109.
Table 110.
Table 111.
Table 112.
Latest prices for energy storage in Great Britain and Germany.................... 595
Table 113.
Table 114.
Table 115.
Table 116.
Table 117.
Global installed base of Vestas wind turbines by country, end 2009............ 623
Table 118.
Global installed base of Vestas wind turbines by size (output), end 2009 .... 626
Table 119.
Table 120.
Table 121.
Table 122.
Table 123.
Table 124.
Table 125.
Table 126.
Past and confirmed supply contracts for offshore wind farms ..................... 653
Table 127.
Table 128.
Table 129.
Table 130.
Table 131.
Page 39 of 695
Table 132.
Table 133.
Ports with deep water and reinforced quaysides for heavy wind turbines... 670
Table 134.
Table 135.
Table 136.
Table 137.
Table 138.
Page 40 of 695
World wind energy installed capacity was 158 GW by the end of 2009, with 37 GW added
during the year, this represents a 31% increase on 2008 and is an even greater percentage
year on year increase than we saw between 2006 and 2007 (26%).
Last year was a better year than expected with an extra 12.5 GW installed compared to
estimates from the GWEC.
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GW 2.4
Figure 1.
2.7
3.1
3.8
4.9
9.7
13
74
93.8
Source; GWEC
It is estimated that it will reach 200 GW by the end of 2010. This would represent 26%
growth on 2009, the slowing in the market due to the global economic environment, continued uncertainty and the difficulty to raise capital.
The growth in 2009 was primarily associated with China, where a record 13.8 GW was
added more than doubling the capacity to 26 GW, and USA, where 10 GW was added,
increasing the capacity by 40% to 35 GW.
However, outside of these two countries, capacity growth within the remaining Top Ten
countries remained at 9%, so in order to maintain momentum we are beginning to see the
process of globalisation of the wind industry as more countries begin to make significant
investment, particularly in South America, North Africa and Eastern Europe. While the Top
Ten countries still accounted for approximately 87% of the global market in 2009 (the same
Page 47 of 695
Figure 43.
Source; Siemens
The far north of China experiences sub zeros temperatures, and therefore needs cold
resilient turbines.
5.2.5
There have been three stages in the development of grid-connected wind farms.
In the initial demonstration period (1986-1993), the main activity was to build small-scale
demonstration wind farms by utilising grants from foreign donor countries and loans.
Support from the government was mainly in terms of financial backing, such as investment
in wind farm projects or in the development of wind turbines.
In the industrialisation period (1994-2003), the former Ministry of Electric Power proposed a
wind power industrialisation programme, including the early stages of wind farm construction in 1993. The following year it was decided that the grid utility should facilitate the
connection of wind farms to the nearest grid and all the electricity generated by wind farms
should be purchased. The grid tariff would be calculated as the sum of power generation
costs, loan payments and a reasonable profit. The difference between the wind electricity
Figure 90.
Source; CRES
6.4.3
Offshore
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
USA
707
723
720
880
880
1,190
1,190
1,440
1,440
1,600
Germany
623
783
919
1,101
1,281
1,397
1,553
1,700
1,723
1,848
1,888
1,923
Spain
422
504
589
648
721
845
950
1,120
1,330
1,375
1,562
1,775
India
279
283
283
401
441
553
620
696
781
China
Figure 217.
2008
1363
2009
1,918
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
560
687
750
931
850
1,351
1,996
1,079
1,233
1,279
Denmark
2007
2008
Italy
776
802
918
1,198
1149
1534
1567
France
713
795
1,162
1,132
1,689
1,752
1,907
UK
843
1,678
1,691
1,688
2,119
2,017
2,124
Figure 218.
capacity blades. Only one turbine manufacturer, Vestas, has submitted patents for composite materials for wind turbines so far.
Over the next seven years the market for 1.5 MW+ will increase to meet demand for larger
turbines. There will still be a market for small turbines, mainly from developing countries,
remote locations and for companies generating their own electricity needs. Forecast of
market share for different turbine sizes, %:
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
< 750kW
Figure 220.
26.2
2008
2009
2010
751kW-1,500kW
2011
2012
2013
1,501 kW-2,500 kW
2014
2015
2016
2017
> 2,500 kW
Offshore
Since the first offshore turbine was installed in 1992, offshore turbines have been increasing
in size both size and capacity at a faster rate than onshore turbines. Between 2001 and 2009
there was an in the average rating of new installed capacity in Europe. The largest turbines
in operation are the 5 MW Multibrid and 5 MW REpower turbines at the Alpha Ventus and
Hooksiel wind farms in Germany. REpower claims its 5 MW offshore turbine can operate at
6 MW.
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