Mohammed Saqib Kalam Enroll no 10BSP0141

Critique of Scenario planning Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. The main critiques of the scenario planning are the following One criticism of the scenario planning is that the two-by-two technique commonly used is actually results in a matrix of four somewhat arbitrary scenario themes. If other key uncertainties had been selected, very different scenarios could emerge. The issue is not that whether we have right scenarios but rather whether they delineate the range of possible future appropriately. Any tool that tries to simplify a complex picture will introduce distortions, whether it is a geographic map or a set of scenarios. Scenario planning also has the drawback that the technique can suffer from various process and content trap. These are mostly related to how the process is conducted in organizations (such as team composition, role of facilitators, etc.) as well as the substantive focus of the scenarios (long vs. short term, global vs. regional, incremental vs. paradigm shifting, etc.). Since the process component is integral part of the scenario planning, they can also be viewed as weaknesses of the methodology itself. But it has been seen that all forecasting techniques suffers from such organizational limitations. The main idea of using it is not perfection, especially when there is a lot of high uncertainty and complexity but whether the technique performs better than its rivals. Another critique of scenario planning in organizations is its weak integration into other planning and forecasting techniques. Most companies have a lot of trouble dealing with just one future and for multiple ones is much harder. Say for example budgeting and planning systems are predicated on single idea of the future, with later adjustments made as per requirements contingency planning, through variance analysis, rolling budgets, and periodic renegotiations. These

strategies are not future-proof and they lacked organized mechanisms to adjust to

external future turmoil. The real works of scenario planning is how to craft flexible strategies and appropriate monitoring systems. Scenario planning is just one of the main component of a more complete management system. So the scenario thinking needs to be integrated with the existing planning and budgeting system. Also it has been found that a deep understanding and knowledge of the field under investigation is very necessary. Data and information which are required from different sources have to be collected and interpreted which makes scenario building more time-consuming. Analysis The analysis of the scenario planning can be made in the light of various merits of the planning. Though it has many drawbacks/critiques but the advantages are many. Some of them are as listed below Firstly, the strength of scenarios is that they do not describe just one future, but that several realisable or desirable futures are placed side by side. Secondly, scenarios open up the mind of the managers of the unimaginable possibilities and challenges of the future. Also the use of scenario planning can change the corporate culture, making the managers to rethink about the hypotheses on which they have made their strategy. Thirdly, scenario planning is a good way to recognise weak signals, problems or weaknesses which are there in the organization so the organisation can be better prepared to handle new situations. Also one function of scenarios beyond the planning can be improving communication. Scenarios can lead to the common language within an organisation. Another function of the scenario planning is the coordinating function. During the scenario process the strategies adopted within the organization are shared between the participants which supports the coordination and implementation of actions. Though there are many critiques related to scenario planning but overall in the present ever changing environment it is an important need for the long term sustainability of the organization.

References http://www.peakenergy.blogspot.in http://www.wikipedia.org http://www.lampsacus.com http://www.sciencedirect.com