Queensland

University of Technology

Approximate Bayesian Computation for Astronomical Model Analysis:

A Case Study in Galaxy Demographics & Morphological Transformation at High Redshift

Dr Ewan Cameron

The Data Featuring a vast ensemble of multi-wavelength imaging

compiled from both ground-based and space-based observatories the Extended Groth Strip (EGS) region of the Northern Sky numbers amongst the premier survey fields of the modern era. Our demographic benchmark for the present study was thus derived from analysis of all 126 high mass (Mgal > 1011 M Sun) EGS galaxies at redshifts of 1.5 < z < 3 (Barro et al. 2011; ~2-4 Gyr after the Big Bang) with state-of-the-art, HST/WFC3, near-IR imaging from the CANDELS project. A unique morphological classification was assigned accordingly to each through visual inspection by an experienced observer.

Abstract Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) represents

z=3

Type I: Pure Spheroid

Type II: Spheroid +Disk

Type III: Pure Disk

Type IV: Ongoing Merger

z = 1.5

CANDELS Hband Imaging (F160W)

Classification By Visual Inspection

The Four Archetypal Morphologies

Demographic Evolution

Fig 1. Left. Example postage stamp images characterising the four key morphological types evident amongst massive, early Universe galaxies in the CANDELS HST/WFC3 imaging. Right. Illustration of the evolving morphological mix from z=3 to z=1.5 in the EGS dataset.

a powerful methodology f or the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable. Here we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high redshift galaxies. We develop, first, a stochastic model for merging and secular evolution in the early Universe; and second, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of the first generation of massive galaxies in the CANDELS/EGS dataset we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. Ultimately, our ABC analysis returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe.

The Model We model evolution amongst the massive galaxy

The ABC Algorithm The aim of ABC in a nutshell is to

identify a sample of parameter vectors, , drawn f rom the prior density, ( ), for which the (simulated) model output, ys, is close (in some sense) to the observed data, y. Following Drovandi & Pettitt (2011) [DP11] this objective may be stated formally as the recovery of unbiased samples from the distribution described by the approximate joint posterior density, f(, ys | [S(y),S(ys)]T) f(ys | ) () 1([S(y),S(ys)]T), where S() represents a vector of appropriate summary statistics, [] a discrepancy distance for judging modeldata similarity, and T some final tolerance on this discrepancy. Ultimately the accuracy of the ABC approximation is set by this T, the M C error of the sampling, and the informative power of the chosen S(). For the present analysis we adopt for S() a vector of type fractions binned by redshift, with the optimal number of bins found via the minimum entropy criterion of Nunes & Balding (2010). We implement the ABC scheme using a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach (DP11) in which efficient sampling of the target distribution is achieved by evolving a large population of particles through a series of intermediate distributions characterised by non-increasing discrepancy tolerances.

population of the early Universe as a continuous time Markov process with the key transition drivers, merging and secular bulge formation, following non-homogeneous Poissonian formsmotivated by recent observational results. In particular, it is supposed that galaxies are born (i.e., cross the 1011 MSun threshold) as either [Type III] pure disks or [Type IV] ongoing mergers only, yet can evolve subsequently into [Type I] pure spheroids or [Type II] spheroid-plus-disks. The five key evolutionary pathways permitted under this scheme are illustrated below. The six free parameters of our model are: merge , merge , and tbr (controlling the merger rate), Irr morph and PSph+D remnant (controlling the timescale for fading of post- merger irregular features and the probability of a Type II [rather than Type I] remnant), and sec ev (controlling the timescale for secular bulge formation). Under a realistic coupling of birth times for close galaxy pairs the corresponding likelihood function becomes entirely intractable.
Sim. Morphological Type
(IV) (III) (II) (I) Fading of irr. tidal features 1.5 1.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Irr. features not yet faded Merger No mergers, no secular evolution Earlytype disk remnant Fading of irr. tidal features Merger

Secular evolution to earlytype disk Merger Pure spheroid remnant

Time Since Mgal > 1011MSun (Gyr)

Fig 2. The permitted pathways of galaxy morphological transformation under our model given a pure disk birth type. For the three additional pathways corresponding to a merger birth simply move the matching symbol to time zero.

The Results
6
Log10

Redshift
2.5 2

1.5

merge

Log10

m(t)
4.0

post.

post.

fmode fmode 2 0 1.75 1.25 0.75 0.25

fmode

m(t) (Mpc3Gyr1)

fmode 2 0

4.5

4.5

Log10

merge
fmode

merge

post.

Log10

Log10

fmode 2 0

5.5

5.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

tbr

tbr (Gyr)

2.5 1.5 0.5

fmode fmode 2 0

PSph+D remnant

0.75 0.5 0.25 0

post.

Time Since z=6 (Gyr)

PSph+D remnant

fmode 2 0

post.

fmode

Log10

5.0

5.0

m(t) (Mpc3Gyr1)

SMC ABC: Coevolution Case

4.0

After five iterations of the SMC ABC resamplingrefreshment process with 10,000 particles and a 75% rejection rate the approximate posteriors shown in Fig. 3 were recovered. Interestingly, we find that under our adopted model of morphological transformation as a continuous time Markov process the observed demographics of the CANDELS/EGS sample allow rather tight constraints to be placed on the evolving major merger rate of > 1011 MSun galaxies, m(t), [controlled by the model parameters: merge , merge , and tbr] at these high redshifts. In the lefthand panel of Fig. 4 we demonstrate the consistency between our 1 and 3 ABC credible intervals and the previously published upper bounds on m(t) based on close pair counts from Bluck et al. (2009) and Man et al. (2012). Moreover, in the righthand panel of this Figure we compare the width of our ABC model-based CIs against the 1 CIs from traditional (i.e., disturbed galaxy [Type IV] count-based) estimates computed with our own dataset (C12), as well as a third-party contribution from Bluck et al. (2011). Despite the (expected) artificial broadening of the approximate CIs owing to the lack of a sufficient S() our ABC constraints on m(t) are actually tighter than the simple traditional estimates since the model comparison allows inference from the full demographic dataset while the latter does not.

sec ev (Gyr)

Log10

sec ev
fmode

0.5

Fig 3. Left. The marginal and joint posterior p robability densities of key p arameters (and their pairings) recovered from ABC analysis of the CANDELS/EGS demographic dataset under our model of high redshift morphological evolution.
post.

0 0.5

m(t) (Mpc3Gyr1)

2 0

4.0

m(t) (Mpc3Gyr1)

fmode

Log10

m : fp BL09 MA12

4.0

m : fIV C12

1.5

Irr morph (Gyr)

Irr morph

fmode fmode

4.5

4.5

post.

Log10

Log10

0.5

5.0

5.0
m : fA BL11 m : fI C12
II

2 0 5 4 3 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 Log10 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0.5 Log10 0 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

5.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

5.5 0.0

Log10

merge (Mpc3Gyr1)

1.0

2.0

3.0

merge

tbr (Gyr)

PSph+D remnant

sec ev (Gyr)

Irr morph (Gyr)

Time Since z=6 (Gyr)

Time Since z=6 (Gyr)

Fig 4. Comparison of our 1 and 3 ABC-based credible intervals for the major m erger rate at z > 1.5 against alternative estimates based on close p air counts (Left) and disturbed galaxy counts (Right).

Cameron & Pettitt (2012): submitted to MNRAS (7 February)

Email: dr.ewan.cameron@gmail.com