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INvFS1 INC><:G>62010
THE POLICY AGENDA
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Nigeria is soon to enter its next election cycle.
What are the potential outcomes and impacts
for investors?
I=:C:MI8N8A:oI elecIions, presidenIial,
gubernaIorial and parliamenIary, is jusI around Ihe
corner. InvesIors will wanI Io know whaI Io expecI,
given Nigeria`s elecIoral hisIory so Iar. 1here are clear
indicaIions IhaI serious lessons have been learned, and
IhaI Ihe deliberaIe evils oI Ihe pasI, and Ihe lapses, will
noI be allowed Io repeaI Ihemselves in 2011.
1he elecIion oI 200, widely believed Io be Ihe worsI
in Nigeria`s hisIory, was a waIershed which showed
IhaI urgenI consIiIuIional, regulaIory and judicial
acIion was needed, supporIed by civic educaIion.
1he problems experienced in Nigeria`s recenI
INvFS1 INC><:G>62010
THE POLICY AGENDA
elecIions were caused principally by Ihe acIions
oI some poliIicians and Ihe IndependenI NaIional
FlecIoral Commission (INFC), Ihe agency auIhorised by
law Io prepare, manage and conducI elecIions.
II could be argued IhaI Ihe mosI serious challenge
Io Ihe elecIoral process as 2011 draws near is Ihe
desperaIion oI some people Ior poliIical power. Many
oI Ihe problems associaIed wiIh poliIicians are Ihe
producI oI Ihe adulIerous naIure oI Ihe Nigerian
poliIical eliIe. Iow levels oI parIy loyalIy and an
absence oI inIernal democracy in Ihe parIies oIIen
resulI in a relucIance Io abide by Ihe resulI oI Ihe
parIy primaries. AIIempIs Io manipulaIe Ihe judicial
process are noI an uncommon occurrence and Ihe
inuence oI money should noI be underesIimaIed.
1here is also a perceived lack oI commiImenI Io
good governance, Iransparency and accounIabiliIy,
largely inuenced by Ihe presence oI poliIical
godIaIhers.
II musI be admiIIed IhaI Nigerian poliIical parIies
are noI generally Iounded on serious ideology, and iI
is oIIen very easy Ior a member who Iails Io geI a parIy
nominaIion Io move immediaIely Io anoIher parIy,
and be nominaIed.
1he problems inherenI in INFC are oIIen
compounded by poliIicians who are ready Io
compromise Ihe oILcers and non-oILcials who
IuncIion on polling days. 1he commission is also
accused oI inadequaIe arrangemenIs Ior elecIions,
such as suILcienI maIerials noI arriving aI Ihe polling
sIaIions on Iime, or noI aI all. In previous elecIions,
voIer regisIries have noI reecIed Ihe names oI Ihe
regisIered voIers in parIicular wards. INFC was quiIe
combaIive iniIially and was resenIIul oI criIicism, buI
soon began Io heed naIionwide calls Ior change in
iIs operaIions.
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1he laIe PresidenI Umaru Musa Yar`Adua endeared
himselI Io Ihe naIion when on his inauguraIion he
admiIIed IhaI Ihe elecIion which broughI him Io
power was awed and promised remedial acIion. He
kepI his promise by seIIing up Ihe FlecIoral ReIorm
CommiIIee, wiIh a Iormer ChieI jusIice oI Nigeria,
jusIice Mohammed Uwais, as Chairman, and a
collecIion oI repuIable and respecIed members oI Ihe
socieIy as members.
IIs Ierms oI ReIerence included a review oI
Nigeria`s general elecIions and a commiImenI
Io idenIiIy IacIors which aIIecI Ihe qualiIy and
credibiliIy oI Ihe elecIions and Iheir impacI on Ihe
democraIic process. 1he CommiIIee was also Iasked
wiIh examining relevanI provisions oI Ihe 1999
consIiIuIion, Ihe FlecIoral AcI and Ihe legislaIion
IhaI have bearing on Ihe elecIoral process. In
addiIion, Ihe CommiIIee would examine Ihe roles
oI insIiIuIions, agencies and sIakeholders shaping
and impacIing on Ihe qualiIy and credibiliIy oI
Ihe elecIoral process. As well as idenIiIying besI
pracIices IhaI would impacI posiIively on Ihe naIion`s
elecIoral process, iI was expecIed Io make general
recommendaIions.
1he CommiIIee`s reporI is currenIly being debaIed
by Ihe naIional assembly. While Ihe majoriIy oI Ihe
ciIizens wanI Ihe reporI implemenIed in Iull, Ihe
execuIive council oI Ihe IederaIion submiIIed a revised
version. 1he deIailed recommendaIions oI Ihe reporI
are quiIe Iar reaching and would deLniIely minimise
elecIoral malpracIices.
When elecIion resulIs are IrusIed and seen Io reecI
Ihe will oI Ihe people, Ihe governmenI emerging Irom
IhaI elecIion would naIurally be accorded legiIimacy
and iI is expecIed IhaI Ihe elecIoral law IhaI would
evenIually resulI Irom Ihe review commission will
lead Io Ihis.
AnoIher IacIor IhaI would engender credible and
peaceIul elecIions is recogniIion by Ihe usual players
IhaI Ihe people have decided Io deIend Iheir mandaIe,
Io ensure IhaI Iheir voIes counI.
Perhaps Ihe greaIesI comIorI comes Irom Ihe
judiciary. II has moved Irom posiIivisI Io acIivisI by
giving landmark judgmenIs. 1his is parIicularly Irue
oI Ihe Supreme CourI, which has reversed many oI
Ihe decisions oI Ihe lower courIs and Ihe elecIion
Iribunals. For insIance, many who were declared
winners by INFC were unseaIed by Ihe courI. Several
members oI Ihe naIional assembly, sIaIe houses oI
assembly and governors had Io Iace re-runs.
1he People`s DemocraIic ParIy, or PDP, dominaIes
Ihe SenaIe and House oI RepresenIaIives and is Ihe
ruling parIy in a majoriIy oI Ihe sIaIe houses oI
assembly, noI Io menIion being Ihe parIy oI many
sIaIe governors. II may sIill emerge Ihe majoriIy parIy
in 2011, albeiI noI wiIh Ihe overbearing numbers
oI Ioday. II is likely IhaI Ihere will be a sIronger
opposiIion in 2011, which will ensure IhaI policy will
be more robusIly debaIed.
As a sign oI PresidenI Coodluck jonaIhan`s
deIerminaIion Io mainIain a reIormisI agenda, iI was
one oI Ihe key prioriIies ouIlined when he was sworn
in as head oI sIaIe in May. Our IoIal commiImenI
Io good governance, elecIoral reIorm and Ihe LghI
againsI corrupIion will be pursued wiIh greaIer vigour,
jonaIhan said aIIer Iaking Ihe oaIh oI oILce in IronI oI
minisIers, sIaIe governors and ambassadors in Abuja.
For Ihe business invesIor Ihere should be no Iear
oI policy reversal, whoever comes Io power. Nigeria
is inexorably commiIIed Io a markeI economy, Ihe
currenI regime oI privaIisaIion and invesImenI
incenIives would sIill be in place, and whaI can be
Iaken Ior granIed is a greaIer insisIence aI all levels on
accounIabiliIy, good governance, less corrupIion and
respecI Ior human righIs.
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