Fuel-Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Emission Impacts of Fuel Ethanol

Michael Wang Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory

Presentation at EPA Cincinnati Cincinnati, Ohio, May 8, 2003

Cycles for Vehicle/Fuel Systems

The Illustration is for Petroleum-Based Fuels

Vehicle Cycle WTP: well-to-pump PTW: pump-to-wheels WTW: well-to-wheels (WTP + PTW) Fuel Cycle Pump to Wheels

Well to Pump

The GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) Model
GREET includes emissions of greenhouse gases
CO2, CH4, and N2O VOC, CO, and NOx as optional GHGs

GREET estimates emissions of five criteria pollutants

VOC, CO, NOx, PM10, and Sox Total and urban emissions separately

GREET separates energy use into

All energy sources Fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, and coal) Petroleum

The GREET model and Its documents are available at http://greet.anl.gov; there are about 800 registered GREET users

U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production and Use Have Increased Steadily

In 2002, the U.S. used 2.1 billion gallons of fuel ethanol

Type FRFG F.Winter Oxy. Fuels MN Oxy. Fuels Conv. Gasoline Total Purpose Oxygenate (E6-E10) Oxygenate (E10) Oxygenate (E10) Octane/Extender Mil. Gal. 700 250 250 900 2,100

Source: Renewable Fuels Associations 2003 Ethanol Industry Outlook Report.

Energy Effects of Fuel Ethanol Have Been Subject to Debate

Some studies, especially those completed between late 1980s and early 1990s, concluded negative energy balance value of ethanol Those past studies basically examined energy use of producing ethanol Though self evaluation of ethanols energy balance is easy to understand, it may not be useful to fully understand true energy benefits of fuel ethanol A more complete way is to compare fuel ethanol with the fuels to be displaced by ethanol (i.e., gasoline) The GREET model has been applied to conduct a comparative analysis between ethanol and gasoline

Emission Effects of Fuel Ethanol Were Not Addressed on the Fuel-Cycle Basis
Past emission studies focused mainly on ethanols evaporative emissions and its effects on vehicle tailpipe emissions Well-to-pump emissions were identified for ethanol and gasoline only in a piece-meal way Petroleum refinery emissions Ethanol plant emissions GHG emissions were simply ignored in some debatable studies Emissions of fuel ethanol need to be evaluated in a holistic and comparative way For criteria pollutant emissions, future emission controls for WTP and vehicle activities are important

GREET Calculation Logic for Production Activities Inputs

Emission Factors Combustion Tech. Shares Energy Efficiencies Fuel Type Shares Facility Location Shares

Calculations

Energy Use by Fuel Type

Total Emissions

Urban Emissions

GREET Calculation Logic for Transportation Activities

Energy Intensity Energy Intensity (Btu/ton-mile) (Btu/ton-mile) Transport Transport Distance (mi.) Distance (mi.) Emission Factors Emission Factors (g/mmBtu fuel burned) (g/mmBtu fuel burned)

Share of Process Fuels

Energy Use by Mode (Btu/mmBtu Fuel Transported)

Emissions by Mode (g/mmBtu Fuel Transported)

Mode Share Mode Share

Energy Consumption (Btu/mmBtu Fuel Transported)

Emissions (g/mmBtu Fuel Transported)

GREET Is Designed to Conduct Stochastic Simulations

Distribution-Based Inputs Generate Distribution-Based Outputs

Petroleum Refining Is the Key Energy Conversion Step for Gasoline

Petroleum Recovery (97%) Petroleum Transport and Storage (99%) NG to MeOH Corn

MTBE or EtOH for Gasoline

Petroleum Refining to Gasoline (84.5-86%, Petroleum Refining to Gasoline (84.5-86%, Depending on Oxygenates and Reformulation) Depending on Oxygenates and Reformulation) Transport, Storage, and Distribution of Gasoline (99.5%) WTP Overall Efficiency: 80% Gasoline at Refueling Stations

Key Issues for Simulating Petroleum Fuels

Beginning in 2004, gasoline sulfur content will be reduced nationwide from the current level of 150300 ppm to 30 ppm In addition, marginal crude has high sulfur content Desulfurization in petroleum refineries adds stress on refinery energy use and emissions Ethanol could replace MTBE in RFG nationwide
Energy and emission differences in MTBE and ethanol Differences in gasoline blend stocks for MTBE and ethanol

Ethanol WTP Pathways Include Activities from Fertilizer to Ethanol at Stations

Agro-Chemical Production Agro-Chemical Transport Corn Farming Woody Biomass Farming Herbaceous Biomass Farming Corn Farming Woody Biomass Farming Herbaceous Biomass Farming Corn Transport Animal Feed (Corn Ethanol) Woody Biomass Transport Herbaceous Biomass Transport Ethanol Production Ethanol Production Transport, Storage, and Distribution of Ethanol Refueling Stations Electricity (Cell. Ethanol)

Recycling of Carbon by Ethanol Fuel Results in Large CO2 Benefits for It

CO2 via photosynthesis CO2 in the atmosphere

CO2 emissions during fermentation Carbon in corn kernels Carbon in crop residue Carbon in soil Ethanol plant Carbon in ethanol

CO2 emissions from ethanol combustion

Key Parameters for Ethanols Energy and Emission Effects

Energy use for chemicals production
Fertilizers (N, P2O5, K2O) Herbicides Insecticides

Ethanol production
Corn ethanol: wet vs. dry milling Ethanol yield Energy use intensity Co-product types and yields

Farming
Corn and biomass yield Chemicals use intensity Energy use intensity Soil N2O and NOx emissions Soil CO2 emissions or sequestration

Vehicle fuel economy

Gasoline vehicles with E10 Flexible-fuel vehicles with E85

U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer Used Has Risen (3-yr Moving Average)
0.65 0.60
Bushels/lb. Fertilizer

0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 1965 1970

Some earlier studies showed negative energy balance for corn ethanol

?
Precision farming, etc.?

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Source: from USDA data.

N2O and NOx Emissions from Nitrogen Fertilizer Are a Major Emission Source Some nitrogen fertilizer is converted into N2O and NOX via nitrification and denitrification in farmland Depending on soil type and condition, 1-3% of N in nitrogen fertilizer is converted into N in N2O On the well-to-wheels basis, N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilizers could account for up to 25% of total GHG emissions from corn ethanol

Technology Has Reduced Energy Use Intensity of Ethanol Plants

70,000 60,000 50,000 1980s 2000s

Btu/Gallon

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Wet Mill Dry Mill

Source: from Argonnes discussions with ethanol plant designers and recent USDA data.

Well-to-Gate Energy and Emissions Allocated to Co-Products (Animal Feed) Vary by Allocation Method

Allocation Method Wet milling Dry milling Weight 52% 51% Energy content Process energy Market value Displacement 43% 31% 30% ~16% 39% 34% 24% ~20%

Weight and energy methods no longer used Some studies did not consider co-products at all

Energy Benefits of Fuel Ethanol Lie in Fossil Energy and Petroleum Use
3.0 2.5
Btu/btu

Energy for producing fuel

Uncertainty Range

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Petroleum Petroleum Petroleum Fossil Fossil Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Fossil

Energy in fuel

RFG

Corn EtOH

Cell. EtOH

Energy Use for Each Btu of Fuel Used

Energy in Different Fuels Can Have Very Different Qualities

Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input
4

In cr

ea se

18.5

in

En er

gy

Fossil Energy Ratio

ua lit y

1.4
1

0.98

0.8 0.42

0 Cell. EtOH Corn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity

Petroleum energy ratios for ethanol, coal, and electricity are much greater than one.

Changes in Energy Use Per Gallon of Ethanol Used (Relative to Gasoline)

120000
Btu Change/EtOH Gallon

80000 40000 0 -40000 -80000 -120000

Petroleum Petroleum Petroleum Petroleum Fossil Fossil Fossil Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Fossil

E85 FFV: Corn EtOH

E85 FFV: Cell. EtOH

E10 GV: Corn EtOH

E10 GV: Cell. EtOH

Changes in Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Gallon of Ethanol Used (Relative to Gasoline)
E85 FFV: Corn EtOH
GHG CO2

E85 FFV: Cell. EtOH

GHG CO2

E10 GV: Corn EtOH

GHG CO2

E10 GV: Cell. EtOH

GHG CO2

GHG Change in Grams/EtOH Gallon

-2000

-4000

-6000

-8000

-10000

Changes in Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Mile Driven (Relative to GVs)

0% -10%
Changes Relative to GVs

-20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90%

CO2 CO2 CO2 GHG GHG GHG CO2 GHG

E85 FFV: Corn EtOH

E85 FFV: Cell. EtOH

E10 GV: Corn EtOH

E10 GV: Cell. EtOH

Transportation Logistics Can Affect Ethanol Emissions

Local Collection
Rail Ethanol Plants Barge Truck Bulk Terminals

Long-Distance Transportation
Rail

Local Distribution

Barge Ocean Tanker

Terminals

Truck

Refueling Stations

Truck

Transportation of Midwest Ethanol to California is Accomplished via Rail and Ocean

Oregon Terminals

Midwest Supply - Majority of Supply to California

SF Bay Refineries Los Angeles Refineries

Based on Pat Perez of CEC.

Changes in Energy Use by Corn Ethanol: Midwest Use vs. California Use
40000 20000
Btu Change/EtOH Gallon

0 -20000 -40000 -60000 -80000 -100000

Petroleum Petroleum Petroleum Fossil Fossil Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Fossil

Corn EtOH in Midwest

Corn EtOH in CA via Rail

Corn EtOH in CA via Ocean

Results are based ethanol in E85

Changes in Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Corn Ethanol: Midwest Use vs. California Use
Corn EtOH in Midwest Corn EtOH in CA via Rail Corn EtOH in CA via Ocean

GHG

GHG

GHG Change in Grams/EtOH Gallon

-1000

-2000

-3000

-4000

Results are based ethanol in E85

GHG

CO2

CO2

CO2

Energy Balance of Ethanol Results Among Studies

40,000 30,000 20,000
Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon)

Lorenz and Morris

Agri. Canada Wang et al.

Marland and Turhollow 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 Ho

Shapouri et al.

Shapouri et al. Kim and Wang Dale Graboski

Keeney and DeLuca

Pimentel Pimentel -40,000 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ethanol GHG Emission Changes Among Studies

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% EPA (1989): E100 EPA (1989): E85 Ho Marland Delucchi Ahmed Delucchi Wang (1990): (1991): (1991): (1994): (1996): (1996): E100 E100 E100 E100 E95 E100 Wang (1996): E85 Wang (1997): E85 Agri. Delucchi Wang Can. (2001): (2003): (1999): E90 E85 E85

GHG Changes

In long Run, Cellulosic Ethanol Could Play an Important Role in Energy Benefits
PTW WTP Baseline GV Gasoline HEV Gasoline FCV Diesel HEV NG FTD HEV NG Central H2 FCV Cellulosic EtOH FCV Renewable Electrolysis H2 FCV 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Non-Fossil Domestic 4,000 5,000 6,000 Natural Gas Oil

WTW Per-Mile Fossil Fuels Energy Use (Btu/mi.)

Cellulosic Ethanol Could Also Play an Important Role in GHG Reductions

PTW WTP Baseline GV Gasoline HEV Gasoline FCV Diesel HEV NG FTD HEV NG Central H2 FCV Cellulosic EtOH FCV Renewable Electrolysis H2 FCV -300 -200 -100 0 100 Non-Fossil Domestic 200 300 400 500 Natural Gas Oil

WTW Per-Mile GHG Emissions (g/mi.)

Conclusions
Any type of fuel ethanol helps substantially reduce transportations fossil energy and petroleum use Though studies now show that ethanol has positive energy balance values, energy balance values alone are not meaningful Corn-based fuel ethanol achieves moderate reductions in GHG emissions Cellulosic ethanol will achieve much greater energy and GHG benefits

Some WTW Analysis Issues Need to Be Noted

Multiple products
System expansion vs. allocation (GREET takes both) System expansion: allocation vs. attribution of effects

Technology advancement over time

Current vs. emerging technologies leveling comparison field Static snap shot vs. dynamic simulations of evolving technologies and market penetration over time

Dealing with uncertainties

Risk assessment vs. sensitivity analysis Regional differences, e.g, CA vs. the rest of the U.S.

Trade-offs of impacts WTW results are better for identifying problems than for giving the answers