JANUARY 2012 We wish you all a prosperous New Year

Economic Pulse Key Indicators IIP WPI 10 Year Yield USD/ INR Crude ($) Gold (10 gms) Global Market Index Sensex Nifty FTSE 100 Index Dow Nasdaq 30th-Dec-11 15,455 4,624 5,572 12,218 2,605 MoM -4.1 -4.3 1.2 1.4 -0.8 1 Year -23.5 -24.6 -5.6 5.5 2.7 Chg. (%) Chg. (%) Current Month -5% 9% 8% 53.1 107.4 27102 MoM Chg. (%) ---1% -4% 2% -2% -6% Dear Investor, All expectation of a Santa rally turned out to be sour with Sensex correcting 4.1%, it was the worst December performance in last 20 years. The month started on a strong note on the back of European Union announcement of bailout package, however this Christmas party was short lived due to weak economic data. IIP data for the month of October was -ve 5.1%, credit growth slowed down to 21 month low and forex reserve dipped to 10 month low. 2011 has turned out to be at best a forgettable year for the Indian equities. India has been the worst performing market globally with 25% negative returns, given the sharp currency depreciation, performance in USD terms has been even worse at -37%, making India by-far the worst performing global market. Indian market valuations have slipped to below long term averages, we believe that the bulk of the earnings downgrades and interest rate tightening are now behind us. We expect the rate cut cycle would begin as early as Jan-12 and inflation to ease down to 7% by end March. Any meaningful rerating of the Indian markets will have to be preceded either by confidence in implementation of key reforms or a turnaround in the cycle of earnings downgrades. The outcome of UP state elections and the Budget for 2012-13 will be two very India IIP data WPI RBI Credit Policy FOMC rate decision US GDP significant events for the markets. Top-5 PAT growth sectors in 3QFY12 would be Cement, Utilities, Private Banks, Consumer and Technology and top-5 PAT degrowth sectors would be Infrastructure, Real Estate, Telecom, Metals and Capital Goods. Our Sensex earnings estimates for FY13 EPS are `1,266, and for FY12 is `1,105. Our preferred picks for 2012 are ICICI Bank, SBI, Infosys, HCL Tech, Bharti, Maruti, Tata Motors, Coal India and Cipla. Happy investing Sincerely yours,

Forthcoming Events 12th January 16th January 24th January 25th January 27th January

Rikesh Parikh Vice President

www.motilaloswal.com 1538 Business Locations 563 Cities

Watch out for volatility

Markets

Equity Outlook Nifty closed the year at 4624 level below the wall of support of 4700, where Nifty had taken support during the previous four months. The Nifty has also closed below the 200 week average which is at 4770, closing above it the Nifty could rise to 4950. Technical Indicators RSI: Daily and weekly RSI are indicating positive divergence as the pace of the fall slows down. However monthly RSI is trending down, showing weakness in longer term trend. Moving Averages: Nifty faces intermediate resistance at the 50dma around 4930, over longer duration 200dma is 5274. Actionables: 1. Positional long trades can be initiated around 4600 level with stop loss at 4450, being around the 50% retracement of the multi-year rally from 2250 to 6350 2. Positional short trade can be initiated above 4800 levels (3 week high) with stop loss at 4950, which is around September quarterly closing. Nifty Daily Chart

Derivatives Rollover Dec series witnessed Total Rollovers of 79% (6m-avg 83%) and Nifty Rollovers of 65% (6m-avg 67%),total Open Interest in Jan'12 series stands at `725.2bn lowest since Aug-09. Sectors with high rollovers were Chemicals, Media and Retail while lower rollover were in Pharma, Cement and Telecom. Options In Jan series for Nifty, Highest Call OI is at 5000 strike with 3.6mn shares and highest Put OI is at 4500 strike with 3.8mn shares India VIX has narrowed down to 26 level, indicating indecisiveness with market waiting for a larger directional view. INDEX: NIFTY View Premium outflow Span margin Buy/ Sell
BUY SELL SELL

LOT SIZE: 50 : : : Hedging `750.00 (per spread) `36,000.00 (approximately) Reco Price
`92.00 `38.50 `38.50

Strategy: Ratio Put Spread Scrip Series Option Strike Type Price
NIFTY NIFTY NIFTY JAN JAN JAN PE PE PE 4700 4500 4500

Pay off Profile On Expiry Break Even Point 4685 & 4315 Maximum Profit `9,250 Maximum Loss `750 or Unlimited below 4,300.

Outlook Commodity Gold Copper Crude Maize

MOSt Wealth -2-

1 month Return -5.95% -0.92% 1.50% 11.00%

Buy Sell Sell Buy Buy Buy

Precious metals can continue to move down as risk aversion feeds demand for the safe haven US Dollar. Base metals should move higher on reactivation of demand for copper imports by China. Energy should outperform as Iran threatened this week to block crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports.
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Investment Ideas with a 1 year horizon

Must Buy

(CMP as on 2nd January 2012)

Coal India
Y/E MARCH

(Buy, CMP: `312 Target: `430)

EPS (`) ` P/E (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%)

Bharti Airtel
Y/E MARCH EPS (`) `

(Buy, CMP: `345 Target: `465)

P/E (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%)

3/11A 3/12E 3/13E

17.3 24.0 27.7

18.0 13.0 11.2

5.9 4.5 3.6

26.4 27.9 26.0

3/11A 3/12E 3/13E

15.9 15.2 25.4

21.5 22.5 13.5

2.5 2.4 2.1

12.6 10.9 16.3

Coal India Limited (CIL) is engaged in coal mining, CIL has

Bharti is the largest Indian wireless operator and post its

total reserves of 64.3bn tons and proven reserves of 52.4bn tons, of which extractable reserves stand at 21.7bn tons
Shift in pricing structure to Gross Calorific Value (GCV) and

acquisition of Zain's Africa business, it has become fifth largest wireless company globally, with a subscriber base of ~221mn.
We expect strong volume rebound in 3Q along with stable

introduction of "Uniform pricing" across all subsidiaries entails gains for Coal miners. Gains accrued could be to tune of ~`20bn (4% of revs.)
We expect mining major to report EPS of `24.5 in FY12 and

Revenue Per Minute (RPM), led by tariff hike getting effective for subscribers coming for renewals.
During 2HFY12, we expect 180bp improvement for Bharti,

led by tighter cost control post recent restructuring and lower SG&A.
Maintain BUY with a Target price of `465.

`27.7 in FY13.
Maintain BUY with a Target price of `430.

Deepak Fertiliser
Y/E MARCH EPS (`) `

(Buy, CMP: `123 Target: `200)

P/E (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%)

NIIT Tech
Y/E MARCH

(Buy, CMP: `183 Target: `250)

EPS (`) ` P/E (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%)

3/11A 3/12E 3/13E

20.5 25.4 29.9

6.1 4.9 4.2

1.0 0.9 0.8

18.2 19.5 19.7

3/11A 3/12E 3/13E

31 30 35

5.9 6.1 5.3

1.5 1.3 1.2

28 20 24

The company has close to trebled its capacity for TAN to 4.5

Morris JV has also started and transition will go for another 5

Lakh tonnes. This should allow it to reach a turnover of close to `1000cr on TAN with operating profits of `200 cr on full capacity utilization - addition of `125cr to EBITDA.
Another 3 Lakh tonne plant planned in Australia will make

months,during which there will be losses in JV, which is included in minority interest payment.
Order book over the next 12 months stood at $232 mn vs

Deepak Fertilisers one of the leading companies in TAN - a key input for the mining industry.
Free cash flow should be positive for FY12 until the Australian

$141mn at the end of Q2FY11 mainly due to inclusion of Morris JV business and new domestic order for crime records by two states.
It completed acquisiton of Proyecta Systems and revenues

capex picks up in FY13.

Maintain BUY with a Target price of `200.

include 1.5 months of revenue(`7.5Cr) from the same.

Maintain BUY with a Target price of `250.

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Plan your play and play your plan

Portfolio construction in four simple steps
In today's financial marketplace, a well-maintained portfolio is vital to any investor's success. As an individual investor, you need to know how to determine an asset allocation that best conforms to your personal investment goals and strategies. In other words, your portfolio should meet your future needs for capital and give you peace of mind. Investors can construct portfolios aligned to their goals and investment strategies by following a systematic approach. Here we go over some essential steps for taking such an approach. Step 1: Ascertain your Risk Profile Ascertaining your individual financial situation and investment goals is the first task in constructing a portfolio. Important items to consider are:
Age, how much time you have to grow your investments. Capital to invest and future capital needs. Your personality and risk tolerance. Are you the kind of

Must Know

Step 3: Reassessing your Portfolio Once you have an established portfolio, you need to analyze and rebalance it periodically. Some Guidelines:
Market movements may cause your initial weightings to change. The other factors that are likely to change over time are

a. Your current financial situation b. Future needs and risk tolerance. If they change, you may need to adjust your portfolio
Review the companies which are not performing as per

expectations If your risk tolerance has dropped, you may need to reduce the amount of equities held. Or perhaps you're now ready to take on greater risk and your asset allocation requires that a small proportion of your assets be held in riskier small-cap stocks. Step 4: Rebalancing Strategically Key pointers to be kept in mind which rebalancing your portfolio: Exit the non performing stocks
Let your winners run To choose your securities, use the approaches discussed in

person who is willing to risk some money for the possibility of greater returns? Everyone would like to reap high returns year after year, but if you are unable to sleep at night when your investments take a short-term drop, chances are the high returns from those kinds of assets are not worth the stress. Step 2: Allocation After ascertaining your Risk Profile you can construct your portfolio. Choose stocks that satisfy the level of risk you want to carry in the equity portion of your portfolio. Sector, market cap and stock type are factors to consider. Some Guidelines:
Not more than 10 - 15 stocks should be in the portfolio. A single stock should have not more than 10 - 12 % allocation

Step 2. Once you have determined which securities you need to reduce, sell the non performing stocks and use the proceeds for new purchases as per rebalancing strategy. Rebalancing Strategically Ascertain your Risk Profile

of the total portfolio.

Not more than 25 % should be allocated to a particular

Reassessing your Portfolio

Allocation

sector.
As per your profile you can allocate weights between large

At Motilal Oswal, we have a host of tools to help you in creating wealth. You can choose a Model Portfolio as per your risk profile or restructure your portfolio by using Portfolio Restructuring facility backed by our world class research. You as a Privileged customer have all the access to these tools.

cap, mid cap and small cap stocks. Analyze the companies to shortlist potential picks, then carry out more in-depth analyses on each potential purchase to determine its opportunities and risks going forward.
MOSt Wealth -4SIP : 300 +Equity Scrips

880 + MF schemes

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Model Advisory Portfolio for INVESTORS
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Build a Portfolio

Coal India Attractive valuations, Leading public sector undertaking with extractable reserve of 21.7bn tons.
Had a decent run up post 2Q numbers, have reduced allocation from high to moderate.
MODERATE - Medium Risk, Medium Returns Scrip MBP* DEFENSIVE - Low Risk, Low Returns Scrip

Partial Exit Infosys

AGGRESSIVE - High Risk, High Returns Scrip

MBP*

Wtg.*

Wtg.*

MBP*

Wtg.*

TOP PICK

Bharti Airtel Hero Motocorp SBI Tata Steel Central Bank Sterlite Industries Infosys HCL Tech L&T RIL Yes Bank Coal India Cash Total

355 1900 1650 360 70 95 2850 410 1050 750 245 320

H H H H H H M M M M M M 10 100

TOP PICK

Bharti Airtel Hero Motocorp SBI Tata Steel Central Bank Power Grid Infosys HCL Tech L&T Sterlite Industries Yes Bank BPCL Coal India Cash Total

355 1900 1650 360 70 102 2850 410 1050 95 245 500 320

H H H H H H M M M M M M M 5 100

TOP PICK

Bharti Airtel Hero Motocorp SBI ICICI Bank Tata Steel Central Bank Infosys HCL Tech L&T Sterlite Industries Power Grid BPCL Lupin Cash Total

355 1900 1650 740 360 70 2850 410 1050 95 102 500 455

H H H H H M M M M M M M M 10 10

Our Aggressive Portfolio works on the principle of no pain no gain. The target returns are high at 30%+. Portfolio includes commodity, cyclical and small-cap stocks.

Some Moderation is achieved in this portfolio by investing in large and growth stocks available at value. The aim is to generate 20%+ annualized returns with less risk.

Our Defensive portfolio works on the principle of balanced growth to outperform the market. The aim is to get annualized returns in excess of 15% taking minimal risks.

MBP*: Maximum Buying Price. One should not buy the stock if Price is above MBP Wtg.*: Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5% .

Model Advisory Portfolio for POSITIONAL TRADERS

MOSt Velocity 25 Velocity 25 Return* -8.6% Stock PTC India Dena Bank Sterlite Industries Oriental Bank Cash Total
Note :* Inception date 9th September 2011

MOSt Velocity 10 BSE 200* -11.4% Sector Utilities Financials Metals Financials Relative Return 2.8% Wtg(%) 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 75.0% 100.0% Stock PTC India Dena Bank Sterlite Industries Oriental Bank Cash Total Velocity 10 Return* -8.8% BSE 200* -11.4% Sector Utilities Financials Metals Financials Relative Return 2.6% Reco Price 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 75.0% 100.0%

MOSt VELOCITY is a structured advisory process that recommends investments in stocks/ETFs with short-medium term perspective to extract value out of market momentum. Our Solid Research and Solid Advice will steer you through the ups and downs of the market.

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Portfolio Restructuring integrates MOSL's award-winning Research & Advisory with your portfolio. You can get research recommendations and benchmark comparisons on stocks and mutual funds in your portfolio, in addition to recommended model portfolios for trading and investment. This portfolio review helps align your portfolio to its investment objectives, and take corrective action as necessary. What Portfolio Restructuring offers: Comparative analysis of customer's portfolio with benchmark, trend analysis etc. Graphical representation of your portfolio across Asset Class, Capitalization & Sectoral Allocation. Integrated view of MOSL & Non MOSL portfolios. Recommended Model Trading & Investment portfolios. Integrated research view for Mutual Fund holdings.

Key Features
Summary view of your holdings Summary report of your Equity Portfolio: Portfolio values across segments. Realized Gains/Losses. Top 3 Gainers/Losers. Based on our analysis, recommendations are given against each stock we track. Scrips that are not covered by MOSL Research are also marked for corrective action, as necessary. Suggested Model Portfolio Model Trading and Investment portfolios (MOSt Value & MOSt Velocity), indicating recommended scrips and percentage of holdings. The Investment portfolios (MOSt Value) are across risk profiles i.e. Aggressive, Moderate & Defensive. Should you need any help in actioning this report, please contact your Relationship Manager or the nearest Branch.
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MOSt PMS

Managed Funds

Value Strategy: The Strategy aims to benefit from the long

term compounding effect on investments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth

Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy (NTDOP): The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by
investing in focused themes which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Small & Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

creation. Value Strategy investment style is of buying Undervalued stock and selling overvalued stocks, irrespective of Index movements. Since inception, Value Strategy has delivered CAGR returns of 28.40 % Vs.18.88 % of S&P CNX Nifty. `1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth `8.96 Crs Vs. 4.57 Crs in S&P CNX Nifty. In CY 2011, Value Strategy is down only by 11.53 % compared to Indian markets(S&P CNX Nifty) which has corrected by 24.21 %, generating an alpha of 12.68 %. Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips Nestle India Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Hero Motocorp Ltd. HDFC Bank Ltd. Infosys Ltd. Sector Allocation Banking & Finance Auto & Auto Ancillaries Oil and Gas FMCG Infotech Telecom Pharmaceuticals Mining Engineering & Electricals Data as on 30th Dec 11. % Holding 11.14 11.14 9.77 9.71 9.36 (%) 21.47 20.92 11.77 11.14 9.36 8.74 6.65 5.99 3.24

The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services and Infrastructure in the Indian Economy. In the last 3 years, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 30.45 % Annualized returns vs. 18.16 % of CNX MIDCAP. Since April 2011, NTDOP Strategy has outperformed the benchmark CNX Midcap and generated an alpha of 11.87 %. Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips Page Industries Ltd. Idea Cellular Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Glaxo Consumer Central Bank of India Sector Allocation Banking & Finance Auto & Auto Ancillaries Textiles Telecom Engineering & Electricals FMCG Real Estate Chemicals Diversified Data as on 30th Dec 11. % Holding 16.49 11.08 9.40 7.69 7.07 (%) 21.86 19.83 16.49 11.08 10.18 7.69 3.58 3.43 3.25

MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

AGGRESSIVE - High Risk
Scheme Name Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus - G DSP BlackRock Small and Midcap Fund - G HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - G ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund - G Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - G HDFC MIP - STP - G Total

Returns %
Type 1year 3years Wtg E -18.10 E -26.20 E -17.60 E -23.20 D D 9.30 1.90 26.20 15% 27.70 20% 28.20 20% 32.00 15% 7.40 15% 8.60 15% 100%

DEFENSIVE - Low Risk

Scheme Name Fidelity Equity Fund - G Franklin India Bluechip - G Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - G Birla Sun Life MIP - Savings 5 - G HDFC Multiple Yield Fund - Plan 2005 - G Templeton India STIP - G Total

Returns %
Type 1year 3years Wtg E -20.50 E -17.70 D D D D 9.30 7.20 6.30 9.10 23.10 15% 22.60 15% 7.40 10% 4.90 20% 12.40 20% 8.80 20% 100% MOSt Wealth -7-

Note :E- Equity, D- Debt and ST- Short Term Debt and G - Growth Have an Equity portfolio and don't know what to do with it? Benefit from research recommendations @ MOSL

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Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) Member of NSE and BSE Reg. Office: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai 400 064. Tel: 022 3080 1000. Registration Nos.: NSE (Cash) : INB231041238 ; NSE (F&O) : INF231041238 ; BSE (Cash) : INB011041257 ; BSE(F&O) : INF011041257 ; CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-09-99 ; NSDL : IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000 ; AMFI :ARN 17397 ; MOSL is a distributor of Mutual Funds and IPOs.*PMS : INP000000670; *PMS & Mutual funds are offered through Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC) which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Commodities Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (MOCBPL) member of MCX, NCDEX and NSEL. FMC Unique membership code: MCX: MCX/TCM/CORP/0725, NCDEX: NCDEX/ TCM/CORP/0033 & NSEL: 13730. Commodities is offered through MOCBPL which is a group company of MOFSL.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement: Analyst ownership of the stock: None Group/Directors ownership of the stock : Bharti Airtel, Birla Corporation, Cairn India, Coal India,GSK Pharma, Honda MotoCorp, IDFC, IOC, Marico, Nestle India, Oriental Bank, South Indian Bank, State Bank, Tata Steel Broking relationship with company covered: State Bank of India Investment Banking relationship with company covered: None Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. 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