Theor Appl Climatol (2011) 104:489499 DOI 10.

1007/s00704-010-0363-y

ORIGINAL PAPER

Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh

Shamsuddin Shahid

Received: 28 July 2009 / Accepted: 25 October 2010 / Published online: 17 November 2010 # Springer-Verlag 2010

Abstract A study of the variability of the extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh during the time period 19582007 has been carried out in this paper. Quality-controlled homogeneous daily precipitation records of nine stations distributed over Bangladesh are used for the study. A total of 15 annual and seasonal indices of rainfall are examined. Variability of annual and seasonal rainfall trends is also assessed. The MannKendall statistic and Sen's Slope model are used to reveal the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. A significant increase of annual and premonsoon rainfall in Bangladesh is observed. In general, an increasing trend in heavy precipitation days and decreasing trends in consecutive dry days are observed. Significant change in most of the extreme rainfall indices are observed in Northwest Bangladesh.

1 Introduction Bangladesh is one of the countries of the world most vulnerable to climate change due to its least capacity to address the devastating impacts. According to the recent IPCC report (IPCC 2007), Bangladesh will experience 5% to 6% increase of rainfall by 2030. Small changes in the mean and standard deviation values can produce relatively large changes in the probability of extreme events (Groisman et al. 1999; Rodrigo 2002; Chiew 2006; Su et al. 2006). As the primary impacts of climate change on society results from extreme events (Rodrigo 2002), it might have severe negative consequences for Bangladesh. Significant increas-

S. Shahid (*) Department of Geology, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia e-mail: sshahid_ait@yahoo.com

ing trend in extreme precipitation has been observed in last decades in the North America, Europe, Australia, Japan, and other areas (Karl and Knight 1998; Suppiah and Hennessy 1998; Iwashima et al. 2002; Alexander et al. 2006). The impacts of more variable precipitation and extreme weather events can also be felt in Bangladesh. Floods in 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007, and cyclones and tidal surges in 1991, 1998, 2000, 2004, and 2007 record the increase of extreme events both in frequency and severity. Super cyclone Sidr in 2007 exceeded previous records intern of its coverage and wind velocity which killed over 10,000 people and destructed houses of 30 million. A flood in 2007 was two times prolonged causing 40% crop loss, outbreak of diarrheal diseases, and severe food insecurity in Bangladesh (Mallick 2008). Precipitation is one of the most important factors of Bangladesh where the economy strongly based on agricultural. About 80% people of Bangladesh live in rural area and directly or indirectly depend on agriculture. The erratic rainfall and associated extreme events may affect ecosystems, productivity of land, agriculture, food security, water availability and quality, health, and livelihood of the common people of Bangladesh. Therefore, a better understanding of precipitation variations has important implications for the economy and society of Bangladesh. Only few researches have been carried out so far to study the rainfall related extreme weather events in Bangladesh. Ahmed (1989) studied the probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes in Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season. Karmakar and Khatun (1995) repeated a similar study for the southwest monsoon season. However, both the studies were concentrated only on maximum rainfall events for a limited time period. Mirza (2002) predicted substantial increases in the occurrence of flooding with certain magnitude in Bangladesh due to climate change. Palmer

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and Raisanen (2002) estimated that the probability of total boreal summer precipitation for the Asian monsoon region exceeding two standard deviations above normal, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. May (2004) predicted an increase in intensity of heavy rainfall events in northeast India as well as in Bangladesh through the simulation of variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. In the present paper, 50 years (19582007) daily rainfall data from nine rain-gauges situated in different parts of Bangladesh are used to study the annual and seasonal rainfall variation and the trends of historical extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. A total of 15 precipitation indices are computed which includes annual total rainfall amount greater than 99th and 95th percentiles, premonsoon total rainfall amount greater than 95th percentile, annual and pre-monsoon heavy rainfall days, number of rainy days in a year, average rainfall intensity, consecutive annual and pre-monsoon wet and dry days, and maximum 1- and 5-day rainfall. The pre-monsoon rainfall has vital importance in Bangladesh as 70% of total food grain is grown during this period. Therefore, importance has been given to study the rainfall extremes in pre-monsoon season. The MannKendall trend test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) is used to analyze the trends of rainfall indices, and the Sen's slope method (Sen 1968) is used to estimate the magnitude of change.

desh is shown in Fig. 1a. Rainfall in Bangladesh varies from 1,527 mm in the west to 4,197 mm in the northeast. Higher rainfall in the northeast is caused by the additional uplifting effect of the Meghalaya plateau. The monthly distribution of rainfall over the country is shown in Fig. 1b. The left vertical axis of the graph represents rainfall in millimeters, and the right vertical axis represents the rainfall as a percentage of annual total rainfall. The figure shows that the rainfall is very much seasonal in Bangladesh. More than 72% of the total rainfall occurs in monsoon.

3 Data and methodology Bangladesh Meteorological Department has 34 meteorological stations distributed over the country for measuring daily rainfall and other weather parameters. However, longterm (more than 50 years) daily rainfall records (1958 2007) are available only in 17 stations. Among them, nine stations situated in different parts of the country and having less amount of missing data are selected for the present study. Location of the rain-gauges in the map of Bangladesh is shown in Fig. 2. The major problem in working with rainfall records of Bangladesh is that of missing data. Percentage of missing data in different stations is given in Table 1. A major portion of data is missing in 1971. Due to the independence war in 1971, most of meteorological stations of Bangladesh were unattended for many days. The number of missing days in the year 1971 varies between 57 and 207 days. Therefore, the whole record of 1971 is discarded from the set. After discarding the 1971 records, the percentage of missing data was reduced to less than 2% of most of the stations. Though the stations with shorter records or with large amounts of missing data are not selected in this study; they are used for assessing data quality and homogeneity at nearby stations. Data quality control is a necessary step before the calculation of indices because erroneous outliers can seriously impact the indices calculation and their trends (You et al. 2008). A number of checks are carried out for quality controls of data such as precipitation values below 0 mm, winter rainfall higher than 100 mm, and more than ten consecutive dry days in monsoon. In some cases, data are validated by the rainfall records of nearby stations. Histograms of the data are also created to reveal any problems in data if exist. To detect non-homogeneities in the data series, both the subjective double mass curve method and the objective Student's t test were applied to the annual precipitation time series of each station. The double mass curve (Kohler 1949) is a plot of the deviation from a station's accumulated values versus the average accumu-

2 Climate of Bangladesh Bangladesh occupies an area of 143,998 km2 and has a subtropical humid climate. Geographically, it extends from 20 34N to 2638N latitude and from 8801E to 9241E longitude. Except the hilly southeast, most of the country is a low-lying plain land. The climate of Bangladesh is characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Four distinct seasons can be recognized in Bangladesh from climatic point of view: (1) the dry winter season from December to February, (2) the pre-monsoon hot summer season from March to May, (3) the rainy monsoon season from June to September, and (4) the post-monsoon autumn season which lasts from October to November (Rashid 1991). The average temperature of the country ranges from 18.5C to 21.0C during winter and 27.8C to 29.0C during summer. The average relative humidity for the whole year ranges from 70.5% to 78.1% with a maximum in September and a minimum in March (Rashid 1991). Rainfall in Bangladesh mostly occurs in monsoon, caused by weak tropical depressions that are brought from the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh by the wet monsoon winds. The spatial variation of mean annual precipitation over Bangla-

Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh Fig. 1 a Spatial variation of mean annual rainfall over Bangladesh; b Monthly distribution of rainfall in Bangladesh

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lation of the base group. Non-linearity or bends plots can be an indicator of changed conditions (Su et al. 2006). The double mass curves for all the stations under study are found almost a straight line. No breakpoints are detected in the time series of precipitation. Student's t test assesses homogeneity by determining whether or not various samples are derived from the same population (Panofsky and Brier 1968). In a homogeneous series, variations are caused only by the variation in weather and climate (Conrad and Pollak 1950). Thus, modified series obtained through the subtraction of the reference series from the original series of each station should be more capable of detecting any inhomogeneity resulting from non-climatic factors (Su et al. 2006). After filtering out the possible climatic abruption, t test is applied on each station. The results reveal that there is no statistically significant variation or break point existing in the rainfall time series at the 95% level of confidence.

After data quality control and homogeneity assessment, rainfall indices are computed from the daily data. A total of 15 precipitation indices are computed in the present study. Table 2 provides the descriptions of the indices. The indices are calculated on seasonal or annual basis. Some indices are based on threshold defined as percentiles. The percentiles are calculated from the reference period 19611990, which is a climate normal period defined by World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The non-parametric MannKendall trend test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) is used to analyze the trends of rainfall amount and rainfall extreme events. The MannKendall test has proven to be useful in determining the possible existence of statistically significant trends at different probability levels. In the present study, confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 99% are taken as thresholds to classify the significance of positive and negative trends. The Sen's slope method (Sen 1968) is used to detect the magnitude of

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incremented by 1. On the other hand, if the data value from a later time period is lower than a data value sampled earlier, S is decremented by 1. The net result of all such increments and decrements yields the final value of S. If x1, x2, x3..... xi represent n data points where xj represents the data point at time j, then S is given by, S
n1 n X X k1 jk1

sign xj xk

Where: 1 if xj xk > 0 0 if xj xk 0 sign xj xk 1 if xj xk < 0 The probability associated with S and the sample size, n, are then computed to statistically quantify the significance of the trend. Normalized test statistic Z is computed as follows:
S1 Z p if S > 0

0 if S 0 S1 p if S < 0
VARS

VARS

Fig. 2 Location of meteorological stations in Bangladesh

change of the events. A brief description of the methods is given below. 3.1 MannKendall trend test In the MannKendall (MK) test, the data values are evaluated as an ordered time series. Each data value is compared with all subsequent data values. The initial value of the MannKendall statistic, S, is assumed to be 0 (e.g., no trend). If a data value from a later time period is higher than a data value from an earlier time period, S is
Table 1 Percentage of missing rainfall data at different stations Station name Barishal Bogra Chittagong Cox's Bazar Dhaka Jessore Mymensingh Rangpur Sylhet Missing data (%) 3.22 2.38 2.39 1.38 3.20 3.19 4.66 6.84 3.62

At the 99% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if jZ j2:575; at 95% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if jZ j1:96; and at 90% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if jZ j1:645. Complete discussion of MannKendall trend test can be found in Sneyers (1990). To get the sequential form of MannKendall test, for each element xi i 1; ::::; of the series, the number ni of n lower elements xj xj < xi preceding it (j < i) is calculated. The test statistics t is given by X ni 3 t
i

In the absence of any trend (null hypothesis), t is asymptotically normal, independently for the distribution function of the data, and ut t Et=var2 t 4

have a normal distribution, with an expected value E(t) and variance var2 (t) expressed by, Et nn 1=4 and var2 t nn 12n 5=72 6 5

The null hypothesis can, therefore, be rejected for high values of jutj. The sequential form of the MannKendall test consists of the application of the test first to all the series starting

Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh Table 2 Definitions of precipitation indices used in the present study Index R99p R95p R95pPrM R20 R20PrM RDay RI M1DP M5DP CDD CLRD CWD TDDMom TDDPrM CDDPrM Description Annual total rainfall when rainfall >99th percentile of 19611990 daily rainfall Annual total rainfall when rainfall >95th percentile of 19611990 daily rainfall Pre-monsoon total rainfall when rainfall >95th percentile of 19611990 daily pre-monsoon rainfall Total number of days in a year with rainfall >20 mm Total number of pre-monsoon days in a year when rainfall >20 mm Total number of rainy days (rainfall >0) in a year Average rainfall on wet days in a year Maximum 1-day rainfall amount in a year Maximum 5-day rainfall amount in a year Maximum number of consecutive dry days (rainfall=0) in a year Maximum number of consecutive low rainfall days (rainfall1) in a year Maximum number of consecutive wet days (rainfall >0) in a year Total number of dry days (rainfall=0) during monsoon of a year Total number of dry days (rainfall=0) during pre-monsoon of a year Maximum number of consecutive dry days (rainfall=0) during pre-monsoon of a year

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Unit mm mm mm days days days mm/day mm mm days days days days day days

with the first term and ending with the ith (progressive analysis) and then to those starting with the ith one and ending with the last term (regressive analysis). In the absence of any trend, the graphical representation of the 0 direct ui and the backward ui series obtained with this method gives curves which overlap several times. In the case of a significant trend (95% level of confidence) jui j1:96, the intersection of the curves enables detecting approximately its time of occurrence (Bednorz and Kossowski 2004). 3.2 Sen's slope model

Sen's estimator of slope is simply given by the median slope, Q QN1=2 if N is odd  0  0 QN=2 QN 2=2 =2 if N is even Where, N is the number of calculated slopes.
0

4 Results and discussion Some trends may not be evaluated to be statistically significant while they might be of practical interest (Yue and Hashino 2003; Basistha et al. 2007). Even if climate change component is present, it may not be detected by statistical tests at a satisfactory significance level (Radziejewski and Kundzewicz 2004). Therefore, in the present study, linear trend analysis is also carried out, and the magnitude of trend is estimated by Sen's Slope method (Sen 1968). Sen's Slope method gives a robust estimation of trend (Yue et al. 2002). The method requires a time series of equally spaced data. The method proceeds by calculating the slope as a change in measurement per change in time, Q0 xt 0 xt t0 t slope between data points xt0 and xt data measurement at time t 0 data measurement at time t 7 Table 3 shows summary statistics of annual rainfall in nine stations for the time period 19582007, including measures of the central tendency, variability, and shape. The standardized skewness and kurtosis show that the samples come from a normal distribution. Amount of annual rainfall as well as 75-, 90-, and 99-percentile values are higher in the stations situated in the east and southeast Bangladesh. Coefficient of variation of rainfall is more than 25% in north Bangladesh. 4.1 Trends in annual and seasonal rainfall The annual rainfall data of nine stations are averaged to get the time series of annual average rainfall of Bangladesh for the time period 19582007 which is shown in Fig. 3a. The trend analysis over annual average rainfall time series by MannKendall test reveals the presence of a positive trend at 90% level of confidence. The analysis of annual rainfall by Sen's slope method shows that the annual average

Where, Q = xt 0 = xt =

494 Table 3 Statistics of annual rainfall for the period 1958 2007 in nine stations of Bangladesh

S. Shahid

x
Barishal Bogra Chittagong Cox's Bazar Dhaka Jessore Mymensingh Rangpur Sylhet 2137 1789 2821 3594 2065 1616 2210 2183 4018

SD 451 392 519 784 391 372 589 550 673

P75 3.0 1.3 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 11.0

P90 19.0 15.0 23.0 32.0 18.0 14.0 19.0 18.0 34.0

P99 76.0 71.0 115.0 130.0 78.0 63.0 81.0 87.0 125.8

Skew 0.66 0.33 0.12 1.40 0.15 0.08 0.35 0.65 0.46

Kurt 0.44 0.71 0.23 1.92 0.00 0.62 1.03 1.67 1.49

CV 21.1 21.9 18.4 21.8 18.9 23.0 26.6 25.2 16.8

Pn means n percentile of rainfall, CV means coefficient of variation

rainfall is increasing at a rate of +6.58 mm/year in Bangladesh. The result of trend analyses at each gauging station is given in Table 4. Annual rainfall is found to increase in all stations under study. Significant increase is observed in Rangpur and Bogra stations situated in northwest Bangladesh. Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall of Bangladesh shows an increasing trend in all four seasons. However, significant
Fig. 3 Trends in a annual and b pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh (averaged for nine stations) during the time period 1958 2007

increase is observed only in pre-monsoon season at 95% level of confidence. The time series of average premonsoon rainfall of Bangladesh over the time period 19582007 is shown in Fig. 3b. Sen's slope method shows that the pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh is increasing at a rate of +3.78 mm/year. No significant change in monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfall is observed in most of the stations. Maximum increase of annual and

Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh Table 4 Long-term (19582007) trends of annual, monsoon, premonsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfalls at nine meteorological stations of Bangladesh Values represent magnitude of change in millimeters per year estimated by Sen's slope method Bold numbers denote significant at 90% level of confidence; italic numbers denote significant at 95% level of confidence; italic and underlined numbers denote significant at 99% level of confidence detected by MannKendall trend test Station Name Trend Annual Barisal Bogra Chittagong Coxs_Bazar Dhaka Jessore Mymensingh Rangpur Sylhet Average 1.41 6.05 7.46 5.17 4.18 7.89 7.18 15.38 7.78 6.58 Monsoon 0.57 0.83 0.67 1.29 3.17 4.14 3.12 10.40 0.01 1.53 Pre-monsoon 1.23 4.18 7.63 8.14 0.70 2.76 2.69 3.64 1.69 3.78 Post-monsoon 0.45 1.00 0.53 0.32 1.36 1.50 2.73 2.12 0.00 1.40

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Winter 0.12 0.22 0.24 0.17 0.42 0.19 0.33 0.36 0.54 0.21

seasonal rainfall is observed in Rangpur station situated in the north of Bangladesh near the foot heal of Himalaya. 4.2 Rainfall totals and heavy rainfall days MannKendall trend analysis is performed at each station to test the trends of the annual 99th percentile and 95th percentile precipitation totals. The Sen's slope method is used to estimate the magnitude of change in precipitation totals. The results are tabulated in Table 5. Only one station out of nine stations under study shows significant change in 99th percentile precipitation totals. Increase of 95th percentile rainfall total is observed in most of the stations of Bangladesh. However, significant increase is observed only in two stations. Trend analysis of number of heavy
Table 5 Long-term (19582007) trends in extreme rainfall indices Index R99p R95p R20 P95pPrM R20PrM RDay RI M1DR M5DR CDD CLRD CWD TDDMon TDDPrM CDDPrM Barishal 2.35 1.36 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.18 0.03 0.50 0.67 0.68 0.62 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.05 Bogra 0.61 3.56 0.12 1.14 0.03 0.25 0.01 0.30 0.10 0.38 0.37 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.24 Chittagong 1.72 6.61 0.13 4.14 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.09 1.13 0.08 0.30 0.05 0.20 0.15 0.17 Coxs Bazar 3.88 1.56 0.11 3.31 0.07 0.33 0.00 0.15 1.03 0.59 0.25 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.33

rainfall days (>20 mm) shows significant increase in five stations out of nine stations. Averaged heavy rainfall days over Bangladesh are also found to increase at the 90% level of confidence. Magnitude of change measured by Sen's slope method shows an increase of heavy rainfall days by 0.12 days/year or 1.2 days/decade. Maximum increase of heavy rainfall days is observed in Rangpur station by 0.22 days/year at 99% level of confidence. As the pre-monsoon rainfall has a paramount importance for agriculture and economy of Bangladesh, trends of total rainfall amount greater than 95th percentile and heavy precipitation days in pre-monsoon months are also analyzed. The result (Table 5) shows an increase of 95th percentile rainfall amount during pre-monsoon months in most of the stations. However, significant increase is

Dhaka 0.50 4.44 0.09 1.13 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.65 0.45 0.27 0.25 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.08

Jessore 1.64 6.58 0.14 0.93 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.86 0.05 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.18

Mymensingh 0.17 4.05 0.13 2.40 0.07 0.44 0.03 0.07 0.65 0.31 0.13 0.03 0.19 0.18 0.20

Rangpur 5.58 10.33 0.22 1.00 0.06 0.04 0.10 1.50 1.40 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.14

Sylhet 3.15 6.19 0.05 4.06 0.12 0.18 0.02 0.57 0.33 0.23 0.17 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.01

Average 0.76 1.92 0.12 1.22 0.06 0.15 0.02 0.06 0.59 0.28 0.34 0.06 0.03 0.13 0.09

Values represent magnitude of change per year estimated by Sen's slope method Bold numbers denote significant at 90% level of confidence; italic numbers denote significant at 95% level of confidence; italic and underlined numbers denote significant at 99% level of confidence detected by MannKendall trend test

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observed in four stations. Significant increase of number of heavy rainfall days during pre-monsoon is found in six stations out of nine stations under study. On average, the heavy rainfall days during pre-monsoon is found to increase by 0.06 days/year at 99% level of confidence. 4.3 Rainy days and rainfall intensity Number of rainy days in Bangladesh is found to increase significantly in five stations out of nine stations. Maximum increase of rainy days is observed in Mymensingh stations situated in the central north of Bangladesh by 0.44 days/year at 99% level of confidence. The rainfall intensity of Bangladesh is also found to increase in most of the stations. Significant increase is observed in three stations. However, a significant increase of average rainy days or rainfall intensity over Bangladesh is observed. Rainfall intensity is found to increase significantly in the stations where rainfall days have not changed significantly. This means that increase of annual rainfall in Bangladesh has caused an increase of rainfall days in most parts of Bangladesh, consequently rainfall intensity has not changed. No significant change is also observed in the maximum amount of 1-day and maximum 5-day precipitation trends in Bangladesh. A non-significant decrease of maximum 1day rainfall in observed in five stations. Maximum 5-day rainfall in found to increase in almost all stations, but the increase is significant only in Rangpur station. 4.4 Dry and wet days Continuous dry days and continuous low rainfall days are found to decrease in all stations of Bangladesh. A significant decrease in continuous dry days is found in three stations. In two coastal stations (Barishal and Cox's Bazar), continuous dry days are found to decrease with a rate of 0.68 days/year and 0.59 days/year, respectively, at 95% level of confidence. On average, continuous dry days and continuous low rainfall days are found to decrease significantly in Bangladesh at 0.28 days/year and 0.34 days/year, respectively, at 90% level of confidence. Though there is an increase of rainy days in Bangladesh, continuous wet days is found to decrease in most of the stations. However, the decrease is significant only in two stations. No significant change in total dry days over Bangladesh in monsoon is observed. Total dry days in monsoon is found to increase significantly in Chittangong and decrease significantly in Mymensingh at 90% level of confidence. Both the continuous dry days and total dry days in pre-monsoon are found to decrease in Bangladesh. Continuous dry days in pre-monsoon are found to decrease significantly in three stations, and total dry days are found to decrease significantly in five stations.

Among the nine stations under study, significant changes in number of extreme rainfall indices are observe minimum in Dhaka station and maximum in Rangpur and Bogra stations situated in Northwest Bangladesh. At Dhaka station on significant change is observed in any rainfall indices. On the other hand, significant changes in seven rainfall indices are found in Rangpur and Bogra stations. 4.5 Identification of the period of change in extreme events In order to identify any period of possible change in the time series of the indices, the sequential MannKendall test is applied. The results are shown in the graphs of Fig. 4. The graphs of the figure represent the direct u(t) and backward u0 t annual series of four rainfall indices which have changed significantly during the time period 1958 2007. The R20 index (heady rainfall days) direct curve has a tendency towards positive values from the beginning of the series (Fig. 4a). The u(t) value begins to assume a significant positive trend at 95% level of confidence after 1985. The slope of u(t) curve is particularly high for the period 19791986. As there is no intersection between u(t) and u0 t curves of R20 index, it is not possible to remark about the year of change of R20 index. For R20PrM index (pre-monsoon heavy rainfall days), u(t), and u0 t curves have an intersection around 1973 (Fig. 4b). The u(t) value begins to assume a significant positive trend at 95% level of confidence after 1982, with the slope being particularly high for the period 19721984 (Fig. 4b). The index CLRD (continuous low rainfall days) is found to decrease continuously after 1964 (Fig. 4c), with a steep negative slope for the period 19791992. The u(t) value of CLRD begins to assume a significant negative trend at 95% level of confidence around the year 1982. The u(t) and u0 tcurves of CLRD have an intersection around 1975. The u(t) curve of TDDPrM index (pre-monsoon dry days) is found to decrease with time (Fig. 4d). The u(t) and u0 t curves of TDDPrM index have an intersection around 1973 like P20PrM. The u(t) value of TDDPrM begins to assume a significant negative trend at 95% level of confidence after 1982. It indicates that with the decrease of pre-monsoon dry days or increase of pre-monsoon rainy days, number of premonsoon heavy rainfall days has also increased. From the intersections of u(t) and u0 t curves, it can be remarked that changes in pre-monsoon heavy rainfall days, continuous low rainfall days, and pre-monsoon dry days have started to occur in the years between 1973 and 1975. Simulated increases in sea surface temperature in general circulation model show that it alters wind patterns to the west of Bangladesh, leading to an accumulation of moisture in the region and greater rainfall during the summer monsoon season (Cash et al. 2007). Khan et al. (2000) found that sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal has

Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh

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Fig. 4 Progressive application of the MannKendall test to the rainfall indices time series: a annual heavy rainfall days (R20); b pre-monsoon heavy rainfall days (R20PrM); c continuous low rainfall days (CLRD); and d total number of pre-monsoon dry days (TDDPrM) in a year

increased during the 14-year period from 19851998. Increase in sea surface temperature causes increase in precipitation due to the increase in convection (Alapaty et al. 1995). Therefore, it can be remarked that increase in sea surface temperature of Bay of Bengal might be the cause of increased precipitation in Bangladesh. The thunderstorms are the sources of pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh (Sanderson and Ahmed 1979). The activity of the thunderstorms during the pre-monsoon season depends upon the supply of moist air from the Bay of Bengal. Stronger and more continuous winds from the Bay of Bengal during premonsoon months due to the increase of sea surface temperature may be the cause of increased pre-monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Cyclonic disturbances including monsoon depressions and tropical storms from the Bay of Bengal and the thunderstorms during pre-monsoon are responsible to produce widespread and heavy rainfall in Bangladesh. The amount of rainfall depends upon the supply of moist air from the Bay of Bengal. Atmospheric moisture amounts have been observed to be increasing after about 1973 (Ross and Elliott 2001). As the increased moisture content of the atmosphere favors stronger rainfall events (Trenberth 1998), it can be remarked that increased number of heavy

rainfall days in Bangladesh might be due to the increase of atmospheric moisture after 1973. Northeastern and northern areas of Bangladesh adjacent to India are vulnerable to flash floods (Mirza and Ahmed 2005). Increase annual rainfall in north and northwest Bangladesh might increase flash flood in the region. Heavy pre-monsoon rainfall causes local runoff to accumulate in depressions. Later in monsoon, local rainwater is increasingly ponded on the land by the rising water levels in the adjoining rivers causes flood (Mirza and Ahmed 2005). Therefore, increased pre-monsoon rainfall and heavy rainfall events in pre-monsoon can trigger more rain related flood in Bangladesh. Agriculture plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh which is very sensitive to rainfall. Increasing annual and pre-monsoon rainfalls and decreasing number of dry days may help to increase soil moisture contents as well as crop productivity in some parts of Bangladesh. Increases of rainfall and rainy days during pre-monsoon irrigation period can also reduce the pressure on groundwater for irrigation in Bangladesh. On the other hand, increasing heavy rainfall events during rice harvesting period in the month of April/May can cause the crop land flooded and major agricultural losses. The strong increasing trend of

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S. Shahid Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar RK, Ravedekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophy Res 111 (DO5109). doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006290 Basistha A, Goel NK, Arya DS, Gangwar SK (2007) Spatial pattern of trends in Indian sub-divisional rainfall. Jalvigyan Sameeksha 22:4757 Bednorz E, Kossowski T (2004) Long-term changes in snow cover depth in eastern Europe. Clim Res 27:231236 Cash BA, Rod X, Kinter JL (2007) Links between tropical Pacific SST and the regional climate of Bangladesh: role of the eastern and central tropical Pacific. COLA Technical Report 236. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Maryland Chiew FHS (2006) Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrol Sci J 51(4):613625 Conrad V, Pollak C (1950) Methods in climatology. Harvard University Press, Cambridge Groisman PY, Karl TR, Easterling DR, Knight RW, Jameson PF, Hennessy KJ, Suppiah R, Page CM, Wibig J, Fortuniak K, Razuvaev VN, Douglas A, Forland E, Zhai PM (1999) Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: important indicators of climatic change. Clim Change 42:243283 Hashizume M, Armstrong B, Hajat S, Wagatsuma Y, Faruque ASG, Hayashi T, Sack DA (2007) Association between climate variability and hospital visits for non-cholera diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups. Int J Epidemiol 36 (5):10301037 Hashizume M, Armstrong B, Wagatsuma Y, Faruque ASG, Hayashi T, Sack DA (2008) Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis. Epidemiol Infect 136 (9):12811289 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. Contribution of the Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Iwashima T, Yamamoto R, Sakurai Y (2002) Long-term trends of extremely heavy precipitation intensity in Japan in recent 100 years. Recent Res Devel Meteorol 1:19 Karl TR, Knight RW (1998) Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency and intensity of the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:223241 Karmakar S, Khatun A (1995) Variability and probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes in Bangladesh during the southwest monsoon season. Mausam 46(1):4756 Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London Khan TMA, Singh OP, Rahman MS (2000) Recent sea level and sea surface temperature trends along the Bangladesh Coast in relation to the frequency of intense cyclones. Mar Geodesy 23(2):103116 Kohler MA (1949) Double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of records and for making adjustments. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 30:188189 Mallick DL (2008) Growing environmental and climate refugees in Bangladesh: urgent actions are required, C40 Tokyo Conference on Climate Changeadaptation measures for sustainable low carbon cities, 2224 October 2008, Tokyo Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245259 May W (2004) Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment. Clim Dyn 22(23):183204 McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006) Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367:859869

pre-monsoon heavy rainfall days as well as rainfall amounts are observed in Chittagong station situated in southeast hill region of Bangladesh. The region experienced a number of landslides in the recent years. Significant increase of heavy rainfall events may trigger more landslides in the region in future. Increasing trends of heavy precipitation events might also cause a number of negative impacts on public health in Bangladesh (Shahid 2010). Many diseases of Bangladesh have direct relation with rainfall pattern. Hashizume et al. (2008) found that the number of non-cholera diarrhea cases in Dhaka increases both above and below a threshold level with high and low rainfall. Outbreaks of water-borne diarrheal diseases caused by parasites, like Giardia and Cryptosporidium, are associated with heavy rainfall events (McMichael et al. 2006), therefore likely to become more frequent in Bangladesh with the increase of heavy precipitation events. Runoff related to increased heavy precipitation events may cause increase of river water levels and flash flood. Water logging in urban areas as well as in southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh might be frequent phenomena. This might cause an increase of rotavirus diarrhea in Bangladesh as it is directly associated with river level (Hashizume et al. 2007).

5 Conclusion Extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh have been found associated with the mean values of rainfall. Increased average annual and pre-monsoon rainfalls have caused an increase in annual and pre-monsoon heavy precipitation days in Bangladesh. Future increases of mean precipitation due to global climate change as projected by most of the climate models may cause an increase in the frequency of associated extreme events in Bangladesh. It seems that the number of rainy days and heavy rainfall days in Bangladesh have increased due to the increase of global atmospheric moisture after 1973. However, it is not possible to come to a decision about global climate change impact on rainfall in Bangladesh by analyzing the data presented. The results obtained in this study may be an indication of the precipitation response to global warming which needs to be further investigated by means of climate model projections. References
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