Pop

pulat
ulatiion &
Economiic
Eco
Develop
pmen
nt
LINKAGES

20 0 7 Da t a Sheet

Populat
ulatiion & Ec
Ecoonomic
Develoopme
men
nt LINKAGES
2007 Data Sheet

round the world, substantial resources have been devoted to

family planning and reproductive health programs that have
helped improve the health of women and families. But little
is known about how these investments affected their economic wellbeingraising income levels and bringing people out of poverty.
Decades of research have produced no clear consensus on how
demographic change affects economic development or vice versa. But
the two tend to be interrelated.

This data sheet explores the associations between demographic change

and economic development. Its purpose is to stimulate discussion
and promote further inquiry and research. The data presented here are
not intended to imply cause and effect between any of the indicators.
In most cases, the indicators we present inuence each other both
directly and through other factors.

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

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tel 202-483-1100 | fax 202-328-3937
website: www.prb.org | email: popref@prb.org

Association Between Average Annual Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates, 1975-2004
Globally, a higher rate of population growth is associated with a lower rate of economic growth, but the association varies across regions and income levels.

Growing population
8

Growth rates in population

United Arab Emirates

7

Madagascar

Jordan

Cameroon

Iran

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Venezuela

Costa
Rica

Singapore

Philippines

Turkey

India

China

0
-6

-4

-2

Georgia

Declining economy

Growing economy

Declining population

Growth rate in GDP per capita

Africa
Population
growth rate

-10

-5

Europe

Asia

Population
growth rate

10

GDP per capita growth rate

2007 Population Reference Bureau

15

-10

-5

Population
growth rate

10

GDP per capita growth rate

15

-10

-5

Latin America

Population
growth rate

8
7

1
0

10

GDP per capita growth rate

15

-10

-5

10

15

GDP per capita growth rate

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

Use of Modern Contraception by Wealth

Child Mortality by Wealth

Across the world, poor women use contraceptives at lower rates than wealthier
women. However, strong family planning efforts can increase use of contraceptives in all wealth groups, even in low-income countries such as Bangladesh.

The mortality of children under age 5 varies between the wealthy and the poor
in a country. People in lower wealth groups face more risk of their children dying
than those in wealthier groups.

Deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births

Percent of married women using modern contraception

144 144

139

130
60

106
48
45

45

47

47

50

99
92
86
80

78
71

70

27

25

76

47
39

12

Burkina Faso 2003

Poorest fifth

Guatemala 1999
2nd

2007 Population Reference Bureau

3rd

Bangladesh 2004
4th

Richest fifth

Ethiopia 2005
Poorest fifth

Turkmenistan 2000
2nd

3rd

Guatemala 1999
4th

Richest fifth

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

Unmet Need for Family Planning by Wealth

Period of Potential Demographic Bonus

The poorest often have the highest unmet need for family planning services.
However, in some countries, such as Ethiopia, the poorest may have low unmet
need because they desire large families. In countries with strong family planning
programs, such as Colombia, unmet need for family planning is relatively low,
especially when compared to neighboring countries.

Countries with increasing numbers of working-age adults relative to dependent elderly and children have an opportunity to increase employment, investment, and savings. This additional economic advantage in
growth and well-being is called a demographic bonus, as shown below
for selected countries.

Percent of women with unmet need for family planning

AFRICA
Chad

2014

Ghana

2050+
2047

1985

Malawi

2050+

2005

ASIA

38

37

2012

China 1965

36

1969

India

33

2036
2013

Korea, South 1965

27

24

Bolivia

20
15
11
7

LATIN AMERICA
2046

1974
2023

Brazil 1964

13

Guatemala

12

2nd

2007 Population Reference Bureau

3rd

Ethiopia 2005
4th

2010

1989

Poland

Philippines 2003

2007

1980

Czech Republic

Colombia 2005
Poorest fifth

2050+

1986

EUROPE

1962

1970

1978

1986

1994

2002

2010

2018

2026

2034

2042

2050

Richest fifth

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

Association Between Fertility

and Education
Girls secondary school enrollment tends to be higher in
countries with lower fertility rates.

Percent of girls enrolled in secondary school

120

Uruguay
Czech
Republic

100

Palestinian
Territory

Kuwait

80
China
60

Indonesia
Morocco

Nepal

40

Nigeria

Laos

20
Mozambique

Niger

Burkina Faso
0
0

Total fertility rate

Association Between Fertility

and Poverty
Countries with a higher percentage of people living in poverty
often have higher fertility rates.

Percent of population living on <$2 per day

100
Niger

Madagascar

Zimbabwe
Mongolia

80

Burkina
Faso

60

Indonesia

China

Cameroon

Egypt

40

El
Salvador

20
Chile

Jordan

South
Korea

0
0

Total fertility rate

2007 Population Reference Bureau

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

POPULATION

Total
Population
Total
Population Growth Rate Fertility
(millions)
(%)
Rateb
AFRICA
Algeria

924
33.5

1.5

2.4

Angola

15.8

2.8

6.8

2006

2030

Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
(million
PPP $)

52

2.3

3.1

1,938,794
196,367

6,069

15

84

1.1

1.3

31,040

2,004

15

Married
Women Using
Modern
Contraception
(%)

Number of
Working-Age
Adults per
Dependent Child

Percent of
Percent of Females
Per Capita Population Enrolled in
GDP
Living on Secondary
(PPP $)
<$2/Day
School

Benin

8.7

3.2

5.6

1.2

1.7

8,199

1,003

74

17

Botswana

1.8

0.1

3.1

39

1.6

1.8

16,169

9,140

50

77

Burkina Faso
Burundi

13.6

3.2

6.2

1.1

1.4

13,773

1,074

72

10

7.8

3.0

6.8

10

1.2

1.2

4,532

622

88

10

Cameroon

17.3

1.9

4.9

13

1.4

2.0

32,038

1,998

51

36

Cape Verde

0.5

2.4

3.5

46

1.5

2.3

2,606

5,264

69

Central African Republic

Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Congo, Rep. of
Cte dIvoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Reunion
Rwanda
2007 Population Reference Bureau

4.3

1.3

4.9

1.2

1.7

4,009

1,006

84

10.0

3.4

6.7

1.1

1.2

18,148

1,921

0.7

2.6

4.9

19

1.3

2.1

1,050

1,786

30

62.7

2.8

6.7

1.1

1.2

36,166

648

16

3.7

3.0

4.8

13

1.1

1.2

3,491

899

35

19.7

1.6

5.1

1.3

2.0

25,475

1,425

49

18

0.8

2.1

4.0

1.4

2.0

1,427

1,832

18

75.4
4.6
74.8
1.4
1.5
22.6
9.8
1.4
34.7
1.8
3.4
5.9
17.8
12.8
13.9
3.2
1.3
31.7
19.9
2.1
14.4
134.5
0.8
9.1

1.9
4.3
2.4
1.7
2.8
2.1
2.2
3.0
2.2
0.1
1.4
2.0
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.4
3.4
2.2
1.6
2.4

3.1
5.3
5.4
4.3
5.1
4.4
5.7
7.1
4.9
3.5
6.8
3.4
5.2
6.0
7.1
5.8
1.8
2.5
5.4
3.9
7.9
5.9
2.4
6.1

57
5
14
12
9
19
6
4
32
35

26
17
28
6
5
42
55
12
43
4
8

10

1.9
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.1
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
2.8
2.1
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.2
2.4
1.3

2.6
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.2
1.8
1.7
1.2
3.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.7
3.5
2.9
1.6
1.9
1.2
1.8
3.0
1.8

281,125
3,800
48,597
8,293
2,704
44,594
18,437
1,022
35,054
4,328

14,266
7,488
12,035
5,315
13,643
118,121
22,076
13,699
9,665
136,529

10,308

3,870
898
695
6,087
1,830
2,058
2,004
663
1,047
2,407

788
594
917
1,783
11,054
3,961
1,137
6,818
716
1,061

1,160

44

78

83
79

58
56

85
76
91
63

14
78
56
86
92

84

84
23
24
42
43
40
17
13
46
41
27
107
14
26
17
18
88
43
9
62
6
31

14

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

POPULATION

Total
Population
Total
Population Growth Rate Fertility
(millions)
(%)
Rateb
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
ASIA
Afghanistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Cambodia
China
Cyprus
Georgia
Hong Kong, SAR
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Korea, North
Korea, South
Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Lebanon
Malaysia
Mongolia
Myanmar
2007 Population Reference Bureau

11.9
5.7
8.9
47.3
41.2
1.1
37.9
6.3
10.1
27.7
11.9
13.1
3,968
31.1
3.0
8.5
0.7
146.6
0.9
14.1
1,311.4
1.0
4.4
7.0
1,121.8
225.5
70.3
29.6
7.2
5.6
15.3
23.1
48.5
2.7
5.2
6.1
3.9
26.9
2.6
51.0

Married
Women Using
Modern
Contraception
(%)

Number of
Working-Age
Adults per
Dependent Child
2006

2030

2.4
4.1
3.2
0.8
1.9
0.2
2.0
2.7
1.1
3.4
1.7
0.6

5.3
6.5
6.9
2.8
5.0
3.7
5.7
5.1
2.0
6.9
5.7
3.6

10
4
1
55
7
26
20
9
53
19
23
50

1.3
1.3
1.2
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
2.7
0.9
1.1
1.4

2.0
1.4
1.6
2.3
2.2
1.6
2.0
1.9
3.6
1.1
1.5
1.9

4.6
-0.4
0.6
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.0
0.6
1.2
-1.1
1.2
1.6
1.3
0.9
2.8
2.0
2.7
-0.3
0.6
0.4
3.7
1.2
2.3
1.0
1.9
1.2
1.1

6.8
1.7
2.0
2.6
3.0
2.9
3.4
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.0
2.9
2.4
2.0
4.8
2.8
3.7
2.2
2.0
1.1
2.4
2.6
4.8
2.4
2.6
1.9
2.5

9
20
12

47
31
27
86

27

49
57
56
25

41
53
58
67
39
49
29
40
30
54
33

1.1
3.4
2.7
2.6
1.8
1.5
1.6
3.4
3.5
3.7
5.2
2.0
2.4
2.4
1.4
2.2
1.6
3.1
2.8
4.0
3.1
2.0
1.4
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.3

1.3
4.2
3.5
3.8
2.5
2.2
2.3
4.0
3.9
4.4
5.3
3.0
3.5
3.4
2.1
2.9
2.7
3.6
3.5
5.0
3.9
3.2
2.1
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.4

Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
(million
PPP $)
17,923
2,751

468,121
63,621
5,803
23,321
8,453
70,906
37,802
9,950
24,554
16,018,90

11,406
31,704
13,657
239,295

30,725
7,023,705
17,311
11,808
194,965
3,115,305
721,616
463,398

152,323
23,437
102,529

905,869
43,816
9,058
10,401
18,992
235,112
4,751

Percent of
Percent of Females
Per Capita Population Enrolled in
GDP
Living on Secondary
(PPP $)
<$2/Day
School
1,574
516

10,286
1,791
5,182
620
1,412
7,139
1,359
867
1,898

63
75

34

90

94
83

16
14

94
32
42
5
26
80
14
23
35

3,769
3,817
19,078
1,719

2,227
5,419
20,959
2,614
28,327
2,885
3,316
6,916

22,408
4,308
6,838

18,840
17,815
1,779
1,796
5,364
9,444
1,889

31
<2

83

78
47

25

80
52
7

7
16

<2

21
74

9
75

5
93
82
102
54

24
73
99
82
83
47
64
79
36
93
88
97

93
93
88
39
93
81
95
40

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

POPULATION

Total
Population
Total
Population Growth Rate Fertility
(millions)
(%)
Rateb
Nepal
Oman
Pakistan
Palestinian Territory
Philippines
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Syria
Tajikistan
Thailand
Turkey
Turkmenistan
United Arab Emirates
Uzbekistan
Viet Nam
Yemen
LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Puerto Rico
2007 Population Reference Bureau

26.0
2.6
165.8
3.9
86.3
0.8
24.1
4.5
19.9
19.5
7.0
65.2
73.7
5.3
4.9
26.2
84.2
21.6
566
39.0
9.1
186.8
16.4
46.8
4.3
11.3
9.0
13.3
7.0
13.0
0.7
8.5
7.4
2.7
108.3
5.6
3.3
6.3
28.4
3.9

Married
Women Using
Modern
Contraception
(%)

Number of
Working-Age
Adults per
Dependent Child
2006

2030

2.1
1.0
2.0
3.2
1.8
5.9
2.7
1.5
0.9
2.5
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.4
6.5
1.5
1.4
3.1

3.7
3.4
4.6
5.6
3.4
2.8
4.5
1.2
2.0
3.5
3.8
1.7
2.2
2.9
2.2
2.7
2.1
6.2

35
18
20
37
33
32
29
55
50
35
27
79
43
53
24
63
66
13

1.5
1.9
1.5
1.1
1.8
3.6
1.6
3.9
2.9
1.7
1.5
3.0
2.3
2.1
3.6
1.9
2.3
1.1

2.3
2.6
2.3
1.8
2.8
4.1
2.5
4.2
3.6
2.7
2.4
3.6
3.2
3.2
4.6
3.1
3.4
1.6

1.0
2.0
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.9
0.3
1.5
1.4
1.8
2.4
0.2
1.4
2.3
0.5
1.3
2.0
1.8
2.4
1.5
0.6

2.4
3.8
2.3
2.0
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.8
3.2
3.0
4.4
2.3
4.7
3.3
2.3
2.4
3.3
2.7
2.9
2.4
1.8

35
70

68
72
72
66
59
61
34
36
22
56
63
59
66

61
47
68

2.4
1.5
2.4
2.8
2.1
2.4
3.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.2
2.3
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
2.1
1.6
2.0
3.0

3.2
2.5
3.2
3.5
2.9
3.4
4.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
1.9
3.7
2.2
2.5
2.8
3.3
2.6
2.9
2.3
2.8
3.5

Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
(million
PPP $)
36,409
35,535
311,009

346,105

304,313
109,417
78,342
61,648
7,101
473,561
511,065

95,510
45,028
207,263
16,415
3,928,000
468,964
22,517
1,385,118
161,133
299,535
37,061

60,028
47,498
31,329
48,735
3,061

18,632
10,119
935,169
17,957
21,239
26,616
143,843

Percent of
Percent of Females
Per Capita Population Enrolled in
GDP
Living on Secondary
(PPP $)
<$2/Day
School
1,369
14,024
2,045

4,241

12,706
25,804
4,034
3,318
1,104
7,435
7,125

22,109
1,718
2,523
807

69

74

48

42

43
25
19

45

42
85
23
96
90
95
64

83
61
75
74
68

68
93
72
31

12,222
2,499
7,531
9,993
6,669
8,714

6,846
3,642
4,633
3,964
4,080

2,644
3,826
9,010
3,340
6,689
4,423
5,219

23
42
21
10
18
8

11
37
41
32

78
44
13
20
80
17
33
32

89
87
107
90
78
80
93
76
61
61
46
95

73
89
82
68
73
63
92

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

POPULATION

Total
Population
Total
Population Growth Rate Fertility
(millions)
(%)
Rateb
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
EUROPE
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Moldova
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia/Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine
OCEANIA
Fiji
Papua-New Guinea

2007 Population Reference Bureau

1.3
3.3
27.0
732
3.2
9.7
3.9
7.7
4.4
10.3
1.3
10.1
2.3
3.4
2.0
4.0
38.1
21.6
142.3
9.5/.06
5.4
2.0
46.8
34
0.8
6.0

0.3
0.7
1.8
0.4
-0.6
0.3
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-.01
0.0
0.0
-1.1
0.9
2.1

Married
Women Using
Modern
Contraception
(%)

Number of
Working-Age
Adults per
Dependent Child
2006

2030

1.6
2.2
2.7

33

3.4
2.6
2.1

3.6
3.3
2.9

1.9
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.8/1.7
1.3
1.2
1.2

8
42
16
26

58
56
68
60
30

44
19
30
49
33
41
57
38

2.5
4.8
4.3
5.2
4.4
5.0
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.2
3.6
4.1
4.5
4.6
4.7
3.8
4.4
5.1
4.8

3.2
5.0
4.8
5.5
4.5
5.1
4.3
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.2
4.9
4.9
5.3
4.4
4.0
5.2
5.3
5.1

2.5
4.1

20

2.1
1.5

3.0
2.3

Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
(million
PPP $)
14,569
29,779
145,098
2,974,502
14,236
62,933
25,267
57,618
49,773
182,227
18,045
156,189
24,770
41,385
12,336
6,701
455,288
168,995
1,309,123

72,335
38,431
278,850
18,180
4,688
13,492

Percent of
Percent of Females
Per Capita Population Enrolled in
GDP
Living on Secondary
(PPP $)
<$2/Day
School
11,196
8,658
5,554

39
6
28

86
116
77

4,575
6,406
6,463
7,424
11,204
17,837
13,377
15,453
10,710
12,046
6,075
1,589
11,924
7,793
9,101

13,439
19,244
5,877

12
<2

6
<2
<2
8
<2
5
8
<2
64
<2
13
12

3
<2
5

77
94

100
89
96
99
96
96
101
83
84
97
86
93
89
95
100
92

5,575
2,338

91
23

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

INEQUALITIES WITHIN COUNTRIES

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Average Annual
Growth Rate (%)

Married Women Using

Modern Contraception (%)
Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Child Mortality Rate c

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Total Fertility Rate b

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

GDP per Capita

1975-1984

1995-2004

Total Population
1975-1984 1995-2004

Period of Potential
Demographic Bonus
Begin

End
2034

AFRICA
Algeria

2.5

2.1

3.2

1.5

2020

Angola

14

288

260

205

2.36a

2.1

3.1

2.6

1994

Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros

2
8
2
34
2
0
17

6
8
11
51
4
1
19

15

27
16
26
66
18
7
23

198

206

189

176

181

196

150

212

93

144

88

187

7.2

7.1

6.5

5.1

6.5

6.8

5.6

6.9

3.5

3.9

3.2

6.0

1.1
9.7
1.0
1.0
3.8

-1.4
-2.4
-1.7a

1.5
5.1
1.6
-1.1
2.0
3.2
-1.4
8.9

3.1
3.4
2.1
2.8
2.9
1.3
2.6
2.2

3.1
1.0
3.0
1.9
2.1
2.3
1.7
3.3

1989
2024
1998
2020
1987
1990
2002
2014

*
*
*
*
*
2042
*
*

Congo, Dem. Rep. of

Congo, Rep. of
Cte dIvoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi

2
9

50

4
6
6
9
3
0
12
15

7
22

3
12

57

12
12
6
19
4
2
33
35

18
25

12
18

60

34
18
12
26
13
13
45
53

30
38

248
135

75
100
130
93

128
217

149
114

142
183

219
130

47
142
144
97

111
204

121
106

101
168

119
85

25
65
92
55

88
113

91
82

49
111

6.7

3.6
6.2
6.6
6.3

6.4
6.5

7.6
5.2

6.6
7.1

5.2

3.3
5.2
6.2
4.1

4.9
6.2

5.1
3.8

6.0
6.5

2.9

2.6
3.0
3.2
3.0

2.8
4.2

3.1
2.0

3.0
4.1

-2.5
5.2
-2.4

6.3

-0.5a
-2.3
0.8
-2.8

-0.7
0.5
3.5

-2.6
0.9

-0.1
-4.4
-3.4
-1.0
-2.1
2.7
-1.1
2.2
-0.6
1.7
2.1
1.2
-3.6
-0.1
3.7

-0.5
0.7

3.7
3.0
3.1
4.7
6.0
2.3
2.5
2.3
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.5
3.2
3.8
2.5
3.2
4.4
2.8
3.1

2.7
2.4
3.2
2.1
2.7
1.9
3.5
2.6
2.2
3.1
2.2
2.2
2.9
2.3
0.7
4.6
2.0
2.9
2.5

1984
2014
2010
1990
1973
1984
1985
1995
1991
1986
1985
2002
2011
1977
2020
2013
2014
1981
2005

*
*
*
*
*
2039
*
*
*
*
2047
*
*
*
2049
*
2034
*
*

Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria

4
0

51
4
29
1
4

3
3

55
9
30
3
7

18
17

57
35
64
14
21

248
98

78
196
55
282
257

262
131

47
203
59
348
215

148
79

26
108
31
184
79

7.3
5.4

3.3
6.3
6.0
8.4
6.5

7.3
4.9

2.5
6.3
4.6
7.8
5.7

5.3
3.5

1.9
3.8
2.7
5.7
4.2

0.2
-0.7

2.0

-3.1a
-2.3
-3.4

3.0
0.6
3.8
2.4
5.6
2.1
-0.3
2.5

2.4
2.4
1.4
2.5
2.4
2.2
3.1
2.9

2.9
2.9
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.2
3.4
2.4

2000
1989
1963
1971
1990
2025
2002
1993

*
*
2013
2032
*
*
*
*

2007 Population Reference Bureau

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

10

INEQUALITIES WITHIN COUNTRIES

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Average Annual
Growth Rate (%)

Married Women Using

Modern Contraception (%)
Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Child Mortality Rate c

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Total Fertility Rate b

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

GDP per Capita

End

1.7
5.4
2.5
2.8
2.6
1.3
2.1
0.9
2.2
3.1
1.2

2039
1993
1990
2011
2009
2028
1980
2023
1979
1986
1968

2048
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
2015

3.1
3.3
3.5

3.2
2.0
1.0

2013
1996
1979

*
*
*

7.9
8.3

-0.1
1.7
1.6

3.6
-0.7
0.8

2000
2030
1994

*
2038
2014

3.0
2.9

4.9
7.6
2.4
6.6
2.1
4.1
1.1
2.9

0.6
0.7
7.1

3.6
-0.3
4.2

4.3
2.4
2.2
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.7
2.3
2.1
2.1
3.7
3.1
2.0
3.3
1.1
1.4
1.5
5.4
2.0

2.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
0.8
1.4
-1.2
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.1
2.9
2.3
2.9
-0.7
0.8
0.6
4.8
1.4

1965
1967
1995
1994
1965
1990
1995
1962
1969
1970
2020
1965
1981
1980
1966
1997
1965
2012
1994

2017
2043
2043
2046
2012
2011
2013
2009
2036
2026
2035
*
2032
2031
2013
2020
2013
2022
2035

4.0

1.7

2.4

1986

1995-2004

2.2
1.9
-2.8

1.6
3.2
2.5
2.7
0.1
3.8

1.3
3.1
2.6
1.9
5.1
2.5
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.1
2.6

2.9
1.3
-3.5

6
3
1

34

13
11
4

11

9
9
3

55

27
16
8

12

22
22
10

70

41
36
17

41

211
183

87

137
168

192

170
136

49

147
154

164

122
64

22

93
97

106

6.1
7.0

4.8

7.3
7.3

8.5

6.7
5.5

2.7

6.6
6.0

7.5

5.0
3.8

1.9

3.3
2.9

4.1

3.1
-0.7
0.5

0.0
-0.4
-1.6

-0.8
2.6
1.8a

Zambia
Zimbabwe
ASIA

11
41

20
43

53
67

192
100

196
102

92
62

7.3
4.9

6.8
4.5

3.6
2.6

-2.6
-1.1

Afghanistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bahrain

12
7

17
13

29
27

52
133

24
99

23
41

1.8
2.3

1.9
1.9

1.5
1.6

1.8a

Bangladesh
Bhutan
Cambodia
China
Cyprus
Georgia
Hong Kong, SAR
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Korea, North
Korea, South
Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan
Laos

45

22

20

29
49

28
49

44

47

27

27

45
60

35
53

48

50

32

37

55
58

47
55

54

121

127

141
77

42
82

96

97

114

101
56

34
72

78

72

43

46
22

25
45

49

4.0

4.9

1.7

3.4
3.0

5.2
3.4

4.6

3.0

3.2

1.5

2.6
2.7

4.3
2.1

3.6

2.5

2.4

1.5

1.8
2.2

3.1
1.2

2.0

1.3

6.3
8.2
4.6
7.2
1.8
5.2
-2.9

1.3
7.2

5.8
-8.6

2.3a

Period of Potential
Demographic Bonus
Begin

1975-1984

Reunion
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda

2007 Population Reference Bureau

Total Population
1975-1984 1995-2004

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

11

INEQUALITIES WITHIN COUNTRIES

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Average Annual
Growth Rate (%)

Married Women Using

Modern Contraception (%)
Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Child Mortality Rate c

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Total Fertility Rate b

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

GDP per Capita

Total Population

Period of Potential
Demographic Bonus
Begin

End

1.2
2.2

1966
1964

2019
2023

2.7
2.1
2.3
5.2
3.2
3.5
2.6
7.4
5.8
1.7
1.6
3.6

1.0
1.3
2.3
1.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
4.3
2.8
2.3
1.0
2.6

1973
1975
1993
1968
1993
1980
1964
1950
1970
1964
1960
1984

2026
2020
2047
2034
2045
*
2038
2019
2048
1990
2011
2037

1975-1984

1995-2004
3.0
2.3

0.4
2.4

2.7

1.6
1.8
1.5

1.4

0.3
3.1
3.8
0.5

1975-1984 1995-2004

Lebanon
Malaysia
Mongolia

54

56

52

5.4
-2.4a

Myanmar
Nepal
Oman
Pakistan
Palestinian Territory
Philippines
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Syria
Tajikistan

24

24

25

32

36

26

55

35

37

130

66

104

32

68

21

5.3

5.9

4.7

3.5

2.3

2.0

0.8
2.7
2.4

1.2

-5.1
6.0
3.6
1.0
-10.7a

Thailand
Turkey
Turkmenistan
United Arab Emirates
Uzbekistan
Viet Nam
Yemen
LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

51

58
1

53

58
7

50

52
24

85
106

53
163

53
86

24
112

33
70

16
73

3.4

2.2
7.3

3.0

1.8
7.3

2.1

1.4
4.7

4.8
1.4

-3.2

3.1
1.5
2.2

0.5
2.8
5.5
0.7

2.8
2.1
2.4
2.5
10.2
2.6
2.1
3.5

1.2
1.0
1.6
1.4
6.3
1.5
1.4
3.2

1994
1966
1965
1968
1988
1969
1969
1989

2045
2011
2023
2035
2021
2035
2021
*

Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica

23

60

54
50
54
5

17
41

32

69

64
63
65
25

26
59

49

72

66
67
67
60

24
65

105

39

37
38
78

164
50

65

24

29
24
76

141
39

32

16

31
19
39

109
20

6.7

4.1

5.1
4.5
7.6

6.8
5.6

4.0

2.4

2.9
2.6
5.1

5.0
3.3

2.0

1.4

1.9
1.9
2.9

2.7
2.1

0.2
-0.7
1.5
2.9
1.7
0.8

1.7
1.3
-3.0
0.1
-1.7
0.3
1.3
-1.2

0.9
1.1
0.9
2.5
0.4
2.1

3.9
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.2

0.3
0.0

1.5
2.3
2.3
1.5
2.2
2.7
0.8
2.4
2.8
1.5
2.5
0.4
2.2
3.3
1.3

1.1
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.7
2.2
0.4
1.5
1.5
2.0
2.3
0.3
1.4
2.5
0.7

1988
1974
1964
1966
1965
1965
1974
1967
1965
1967
1986
1960
1990
1972
1971

2035
2046
2023
2013
2022
2018
2007
2027
2030
2033
*
2022
2042
2043
2020

2007 Population Reference Bureau

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

12

INEQUALITIES WITHIN COUNTRIES

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Average Annual
Growth Rate (%)

Married Women Using

Modern Contraception (%)
Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Child Mortality Rate c

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

Total Fertility Rate b

Poorest
Middle
Richest
Fifth
Fifth
Fifth

GDP per Capita

1975-1984

1995-2004

Total Population
1975-1984 1995-2004

Period of Potential
Demographic Bonus
Begin

End

50

50
27

38

71

63
52

33

71

68
55

35

64

93

39

44

19

18

5.6

5.4
4.7

3.1

2.7
2.0

2.1

1.9
1.5

2.5
-4.8
2.1
3.2
-0.8
4.1
2.0
0.2
-2.0

1.9
1.0
2.4
-1.2
1.4

4.8
0.6
-1.1

2.5
3.0
2.4
3.1
2.6
1.4
1.5
0.6
3.1

1.5
2.0
1.9
2.4
1.6
0.7
0.4
0.7
1.9

1972
1965
1968
1965
1966
1959
1960
2001
1966

2022
2039
2024
2047
2033
2009
2008
2023
2027

Albania

18

37

27

27

2.9

2.3

2.7

-2.9a

Belarus
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria

-0.1a

5.5
6.8
12.4

2.1
0.6
0.9

-0.1
-0.5
1.5

1966
1994
1962

2014
2012
1998

Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Moldova
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia/Montenegro
Slovakia

37

30

43

50

51

60

29

33

17

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.4

0.7

3.1
3.4

-1.8a

2.3
4.6
2.8
7.5
4.4
6.9
6.4
1.4
0.4
4.2
2.5
4.0

0.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.8

-0.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.9
-0.2
-0.8
-0.6
0.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.0

1991
2004
1980
1995
1980
1995
1997
1950
1991
1989
1980
1993
1996

2009
2011
2007
2008
2009
2009
2013
2012
2012
2010
2011
2010
2011

Slovenia
Ukraine
OCEANIA

4.1
3.9
3.5

0.9
0.8
0.4

0.1
0.0
-1.0

1980
1978
1994

2011
2008
2012

Fiji
Papua-New Guinea

0.8
-1.8

1.5
-0.6

2.1
2.4

1.0
2.3

1957
1978

2039
2049

Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Puerto Rico
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
EUROPE

2007 Population Reference Bureau

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

13

NOTES, SOURCES, DEFINITIONS, AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

DEFINITIONS

Data on inequality were drawn from Demographic and Health or Reproductive Health surveys between
1997 and 2005. The surveys asked about household health, nutrition, and fertility, as well as assets, such
as type of ooring and/or roof; source of water; availability of electricity; possession of such items as
watches, radios, bicycles, or a car; and other characteristics related to wealth.

Child Mortality Rate: Deaths to children under age 5 per 1,000 live births. The gure is based on births in the
10 years preceding the survey.

The household assets were combined into a single wealth index and the population was divided into
quintiles, or ve wealth groups of equal size, based on the individuals relative standing on the household
index. The wealth index provides a country-specic, relative denition of economic status rather than an
absolute denition of wealth. The economic status of the lowest or poorest quintile in Haiti, for example,
is different from that of the poorest quintile in Brazil. Thus, data comparisons among countries must be
made with caution.
The use of an asset measure rather than income or consumption measure is necessary when income and
consumption data are unavailable or unreliable.
Poorest, middle, and richest fths are the rst, third, and fth quintiles.
The tted lines in the scatterplot graphs represent overall trends in reported data.
Inequality data for Cape Verde, Georgia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Paraguay, Romania, and Albania
refer to socioeconomic status in terciles and are not directly comparable to quintile data.
Data for Serbia/Montenegro refer to the former Serbia and Montenegro and where possible, the
independent countries.
The regional graph for Europe includes some countries where data were available for the period of
19852004 only.
Data prior to 1997 are shown in italics.
a

Trend data shown for GDP per capita for the earlier period (19751984) corresponds to 19851994.

Average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime.

Deaths to children under age 5 per 1,000 live births.

* Countries where the period of potential demographic bonus is projected to extend beyond 2050.
Indicates data unavailable or not applicable.

SOURCES
Association Between Average Annual Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates: World
Bank, World Development Indicators 2006; and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision; Regional Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates: World Bank,
World Development Indicators 2006; and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The
2004 Revision; Use of Modern Contraception by Wealth: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys; and
D.R. Gwatkin et al., Initial Country-Level Information about Socioeconomic Differences in Health, Nutrition, and
Population, Vols. I and II (2003); Child Mortality by Wealth: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys;
Unmet Need for Contraceptives by Wealth: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys; Association
Between Fertility and Education: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004
Revision; and UNESCO Institute for Statistics Database, Enrolment Ratios by ISCED Level (http://stats.
uis.unesco.org, accessed Nov. 2006); Association Between Fertility and Poverty: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision; and World Bank, World Development Indicators
2006; and Period of Potential Demographic Bonus: United Nations Population Division, World Population
Prospects, The 2004 Revision; and World Bank, World Development Report 2007.
In addition to sources listed above, the data sheet is based on: Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet 2006; U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Reproductive Health Surveys; and
UNICEF Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys.

GDP per Capita, PPP: GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Data are in constant 2000
international dollars.
Gross Domestic Product PPP: Gross domestic product (GDP) converted to international dollars using
purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as
the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in
the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is
calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation
of natural resources. Data are in constant 2000 international dollars.
Number of Working-Age Adults per Dependent Child: Number of working-age adults (ages 15 to 64) per
dependent child (ages 14 or younger).
Percent of Females Enrolled in Secondary School: The ratio of the number of females enrolled in secondary
school to the female population in the applicable age group (such as ages 12 to 17) for the country. This
number can exceed 100 when the number of students currently enrolled exceeds the population of the
relevant age group.
Percent of Married Women Using Modern Contraception: The percentage of married or in-union women
ages 15 to 49 who are currently using a modern method of contraception. These methods include the pill,
injectables, implants, IUD, condom, and sterilization.
Period of Potential Demographic Bonus: Years of a countrys projected continuous decline in the total dependency ratio (allowing for pauses of no more than ve years). Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the number
of dependents (ages <15 and 65+) over the number of working-age adults (ages 15 to 64). Where multiple
periods of decline have occurred in a country, the last period of decline between 1950 and 2050 is shown.
Population Growth Rate: The number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population in a year due to
births, deaths, and net migration expressed as a percentage.
Population Living on <$2/Day: The proportion of people living on less than $2 per day is the percentage of
the population with average consumption expenditures less than $2.15 per day measured in 1993 prices
converted using purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. The World Banks estimates are drawn from surveys
that use common methods for measuring household living standards across countries. When estimating
poverty worldwide, it is appropriate to use the same reference poverty line, which is expressed in a common
unit across countries. The World Bank uses reference lines set at $1 per day (extreme poverty) and $2 per
day (poverty) in 1993 PPP terms, where PPPs measure the relative purchasing power of currencies across
countries. For analysis of poverty trends in a particular country, use of the national poverty line is often
preferable. Most data refer to the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children a woman would have assuming that current age-specic
birth rates remain constant throughout her childbearing years (usually considered to be ages 15 to 49).
Unmet Need for Family Planning: Women have an unmet need for family planning if they are married
women of reproductive age (ages 15 to 49) who say they do not want more children or want to wait two or
more years to have another child, yet are not using contraception.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Authors: Donna Clifton, Toshiko Kaneda, Rachel Nugent, and Erin Sines. Special thanks go to Lori Ashford,
Bill Butz, Thomas Goliber, Carl Haub, Mai Hijazi, Tom Merrick, Nina Pruyn, Joan Robertson, Richard Skolnik,
Rhonda Smith, and Joanne Wei for their insight and assistance. Design and Production: Michelle Corbett
This publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United
States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the terms of BRIDGE Project (No. GPO-A-0003-00004-00). The contents are the responsibility of the Population Reference Bureau and do not necessarily
reect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
April 2007 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved.

2007 Population Reference Bureau

2007 Population & Economic Development Linkages Data Sheet

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