Smartphones,

news consumption and print circulation Platform wars and news

Benedict Evans / benedict.evans@endersanalysis.com / @benedictevans

March 2012

The opening battleground

Mobile handset volumes (m), Q4 2011 Combined PC & tablet volumes (m), Q4 2011

Mac 5% Apple 9% Android 13% iPad 13%

Microsoft 0% Symbian 5% RIM 2%

Android tablets 6%

Windows PCs 76%

Non-smart 71%

[Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, RIM, Enders Analysis]

[Source: Apple, Gartner, Enders Analysis] Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 2

The post-PC age?

PC versus smartphone: quarterly unit shipments (m)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11

Smartphones

PCs

Tablets
[Source: Enders Analysis, Gartner] Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 3

The ecosystem wars

Global quarterly smartphone unit sales (m)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09 iPhone

Mar-10

Jun-10 Android (e)

Sep-10

Dec-10 RIM

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Nokia smartphones

[Source: Apple, Nokia, RIM, Enders Analysis] Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 4

Apple and Android are selling to dierent customers

Q4 2011 global smartphone & tablet performance

70 60 50 Units sold (m) 40 30 20 10 0 0 iPhone 100 Android 200 iPad 300 400 ASP ($) 500 RIM 600 Nokia smart 700 800 iPod Touch
5

Android tablets (premium)

* October: Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis] Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012

Polarisation of the broader handset market

Q4 2011 global mobile handset business 140 120 100 Units shipped (m) 80 60 40 20 0 0 Nokia Samsung 100 Motorola LG 200 HTC 300 iPhone RIM 400 ASP ($) SonyEricsson 500 Other 600 700 800

Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis] 6

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012

Tablets power ahead

Quarterly tablet unit sales (m)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jun-10 iPad Sep-10 Android (premium) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Kindle Fire Sep-11 Dec-11

Android (basic)

[Source: Apple, Google, Amazon, Enders Analysis] 7

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012

UK press circulation
UK press circulation (indexed)

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Daily national newspapers

Sunday national newspapers

Regional newspapers

B2C magazines

[Source: Enders Analysis, ABC, WARC]

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 8

New routes to market: iOS

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 9

New routes to market: Windows 8?

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 10

Tablets and consumption

Tablet consumption of newspapers/magazines Yes, and I read the print versions less frequently as a consequence 21%

Do not read newspapers or magazines on tablet 55%

Yes, and I read the print versions the same amount or more than before 15% Yes, and I did not read the print versions previously 9%

Base: those who currently own a tablet [Source: Enders Analysis/TNS-RI survey April 2011]
Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 11

Reading, but reading what?

Sofa Books Newspapers Magazines TV Study Web The iPad eect

Sofa Books Newspapers Magazines TV Web News apps Magazine apps Blogs RSS Twitter Facebook Ebooks

Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012

12

The deeper problem

Average annual revenue per reader ()

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 FT Online Sales Advertising WSJ Online Times Online UK quality daily The Daily UK popular daily

[Source: Companies, WARC, Enders Analysis] Smartphones, news consumption and print circulation, March 2012 13