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December 2011
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
Quote: Ric Deverell, Credit Suisse
Source: Bloomberg, Dinakar Sethuraman, Coal Demand Hurt in China by Low Power Rates, November 18, 2011
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
market to rise from $22.3 billion USD in 2011 to $61.4 billion muffled next year as domestic electricity producers may
USD in 2015, an annual growth rate of 29.1 percent over pay higher rates to import the fuel to develop power and
five years (see figure 1).1 net generous year over year returns. Not helping the
economic energy situation, power providers in China are
Projected China Smart Grid Equipment & Technology Market struggling to recoup their costs as governments restrict
2010 - 2015 | in U.S. billions | CAGR = 29.1% prices to curb inflation, reducing the incentive to boost
Figure 1, Source: Zpryme
$70
$61.4 electricity generation from thermal coal. China may have
$60 to slow imports of the fuel next year after increasing
$49.6 shipments by about 10 percent this year, according to the
$50
$39.2 China Coal Transport and Distribution Association.3 To
$40
$30.1 combat this, China is working diligently to build more, but
$30
$22.3 cleaner, coal-fired power plants to meet the demand. The
$20 $17.1 U.S. is also expected to demand more energy, but is
starting with a smaller base of coal-fired generation
$10
(dissimilar to China, many of the older U.S. coal-fired units
$0 are expected to be driven out of the energy pool in the
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
two decades).4
Driving the Chinese Smart Grid initiative are technologies What’s Next for China?
in spaces such as solar. Since the Chinese government
announced the “Golden Sun” initiative in 2009 it‟s led in
On January 18, 2011, the U.S. DOE (Department of Energy)
solar investment. Still, the Asian nation is starting to feel the
released a report detailing the substantial progress made
dampness of the solar bubble; more recently, losses for
to date on a number of clean energy initiatives between
China‟s largest solar manufacturers, including Suntech
China and the U.S. Since then, China has been wedged
Power Holdings Co. and JA Solar Holdings Co. may
by negative global economic trends; however the China
continue through next year.2
Electricity Council still projects an increase in electricity
consumption of 8.5% per year.5 The Smart Grid coupled
On the other side of the energy coin, it‟s no surprise that
with next-gen technologies in spaces such as wind will
the world‟s leading emitter of greenhouse gases still relies
overwhelmingly on coal (consuming 3.5 times as much 3 Jakarta Globe (originator: Bloomberg), Coal Prices Not Likely to Recover in 2012 As
coal as the U.S.). Demand for coal in China could be China, India May Limit Purchases, November 27, 2011.
4 E&E Publishing, Joel Kirkland, U.S. and China strive for fruitful but competitive
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
China Electricity
Projections for
Total:
electric generating
capacity, coal, renewables,
hydro, wind, and solar.
5 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org Zpryme Smart Grid Insights | December 2011
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
Projected Total Generating Capacity (GW) Projected Coal Fired Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035 2010 - 2035
Figure 2, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011 Figure 4, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
8,000 7,272 2,500
6,769 2,129
7,000 6,269 1,968
5,796 2,000 1,810
6,000 5,312 1,627 1,646 1,677
4,907
5,000 1,500
4,000 1,043
962
3,000 1,000 848
670 695 733
1,666 1,817
2,000 1,313 1,492
976 1,118 500
1,000
1,049 1,075 1,085 1,119 1,170 1,221 322 322 323 326 329 334
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
United States China World United States China World
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
Projected Renewable Generating Capacity (GW) Projected Wind Generating Capacity (GW)
2010 - 2035 2010 - 2035
Figure 6, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011 Figure 8, Source: EIA International Outlook, 2011
2,500 2,372 600
2,209 533
2,054 496
2,000 1,890 500 456
398
1,578
400
1,500 1,300
293
300
1,000 180
581
200 139
156
494 532 119
456 99
500 330
100
157
248
179 184 194 201 205 38 31 51 62 51 54 55 57
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
United States China World United States China World
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
80
62
60
40
25
18 19 20 21
20 9 7 11 11 12 13
3 1
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
United States China World
Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.
China Electricity Profile: What implications will the dramatic shift in China‟s electricity cocktail have for the United
States and rest of the world?
Zpryme Credits
Editor Managing Editor Research Lead
Robert Langston Sean Sayers Stefan Trifonov
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