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Technical Research | March 16, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (17676) / NIFTY (5381)


Yesterday, markets opened on a pessimistic note and selling pressure intensified post RBI monetary policy announcement which led the index to close marginally below the 5400 mark. On the sectoral front, consumer Durables, Realty and Banking counters were among the major losers, whereas IT sector ended with marginal gain. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=1006 D=1848) (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
The 20-day EMA is placed at 17621 / 5356 level. The 38.8%, 50 % and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support levels are at 17647 / 5374, 17525 / 5335 and 17403 / 5297 respectively.
Source: Falcon

Trading strategy:
As stated in our previous report we witnessed a volatile session yesterday due to RBI monetary policy. Post the announcement of the policy the indices dragged lower to test the 20 day EMA at 17621 / 5356 level. In todays trading session, Indices are expected to open with a positive bias in line with global cues. We expect extreme volatility during the session on account of the UNION BUDGET. On the upside only a move above 17918 / 5463 will indicate continuation of previous bullish trend. In this case indices are expected to head towards previous swing high of 18041 / 5500. If the indices sustain below yesterdays low of 17622 / 5362 then they are likely to test the 50 % retracement support level at 17525 / 5335 or may even fall to the next support at 17403 / 5297. Note: Traders are advised to trade with strict stop losses and stay light on their positions.

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 5432 - 5462 5335 - 5295

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Technical Research | March 16, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10595)


Yesterday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note and witnessed selling pressure post RBI monetary policy announcement which led the index to close near the lowest point of the day. We had mentioned in our previous report that RSI Smoothened oscillator on the hourly chart is placed in an extreme overbought condition and a minor pull back cannot be ruled out. We are witnessing a Bearish Engulfing candle stick pattern on the daily chart coupled with negative crossover in RSI momentum oscillator. The said pattern will be confirmed if the index manages to sustain below yesterdays low of 10556. In this case the index is likely to test 10420 10286 levels. On the upside 10736 10830 levels are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session. The said pattern will be negated only if the index closes above yesterdays high of 10894. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Expected Target Resistance Levels Negative - Only Below 10556 10420 - 10286 10736 - 10830

Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | March 16, 2012

Positive Bias:
20 Day EMA 383.7 Positive Above 390 Expected Target 400

Stock Name Hindustan Uniliver

CMP 388.1

5 Day EMA 383.9

Remarks View will change below 382

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Technical Research | March 16, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks


SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,443 5,302 10,344 1,325 161 1,208 1,704 325 274 650 359 304 334 188 1,660 368 486 649 496 1,895 138 379 904 140 2,851 205 585 75 534 1,322 647 1,343 176 279 962 108 400 92 776 615 128 97 2,236 199 780 114 579 27 280 106 450 1,134 415 S1 17,559 5,341 10,469 1,335 163 1,225 1,720 328 279 659 363 306 337 192 1,671 371 491 655 503 1,931 140 383 917 143 2,867 207 594 77 547 1,342 652 1,354 178 283 979 109 406 93 786 625 130 98 2,268 202 792 116 583 28 285 108 456 1,149 421 PIVOT 17,739 5,402 10,682 1,347 167 1,251 1,745 333 286 671 369 309 339 198 1,685 376 498 666 517 1,954 142 387 937 147 2,886 210 600 79 561 1,368 661 1,367 179 288 1,007 111 415 95 804 639 132 99 2,318 207 802 118 587 29 290 110 462 1,160 427 R1 17,855 5,441 10,807 1,357 169 1,268 1,761 337 291 680 373 311 343 202 1,696 379 504 672 524 1,990 144 391 950 149 2,901 212 608 80 573 1,388 666 1,379 181 292 1,024 113 421 96 814 649 135 100 2,350 210 813 120 591 30 295 111 468 1,175 433 R2 18,035 5,502 11,020 1,369 172 1,293 1,786 342 298 692 379 313 345 209 1,710 383 511 683 538 2,013 146 395 970 153 2,921 215 615 82 588 1,414 675 1,392 182 297 1,052 115 430 99 832 662 137 101 2,400 215 823 123 595 31 299 113 473 1,186 438

Technical Research Team


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Technical Research | March 16, 2012 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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