TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE REPORT

Technical Report
World Indices Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX Hang Seng Nikkei Sensex Nifty Commodity /Forex Gold ($/Oz) Silver ($/Oz) Copper Crude USD/INR USD/YEN USD/EUR 17820 5429 232 69 Daily Ch(Pts) -15.10 -0.15 0.20 0.07 -0.04 0.18 1.32 1.31 LTP 13177 3039 1395 5955 6995 Daily Ch(Pts) 217 56 24 63 94

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

TOP PICK OF THE DAY

Daily Ch(%) 1.68 1.88 1.81 1.07 1.37

AMBUJACEM: (CMP 168.10) Strategy: Short term buy call accumulate at 167 with stop loss 159 for the Target 178 & 182 Support: 167 & 162 Resistance: 172 & 178

ORIENTBANK: (CMP 293.50) Strategy: Short term buy call accumulate at 293 with stop loss 284 for the Target 313 and 320 Support: 290 & 285 Resistance: 296 & 300 Indian Market: Closing Brief: Key benchmark indices pared gains in late trade after hitting fresh intraday highs in mid-afternoon trade. Firm global shares boosted sentiment. World stocks rose on optimism of Greece bailout. The market breadth was positive. Outlook for the day: Nifty opened gap up and traded positive all throughout the day. Nifty ended the day with a bullish inside day bar close to a piercing line formation in daily chart with rise in volume. The buying was witnessed across the board. However, Metal, Oil & gas, Realty, Power and Capital goods stocks beat the benchmark Index. Positive aspect being Nifty able to close above the crucial 20SMA at 5400, now immediate resistance exist from 50% retracement around 5454 (considering the entire 10day slide) also Oscillators are witnessing signs of reversal from oversold region with positive divergence, successive close above 5454 would maintain the existing uptrend in the market. However, some pause in the market might be expected during the day and Nifty to trade volatile during the week in view of series of events like the Railway budget, RBI monetary policy & the Fiscal budget and disappointment in UP election might dampen the possible reforms. The support level of 5200 would act as crucial in short term as it coincides with 38.2% retracement level (High: 5630, Low: 4531) to provide the pullback. As mentioned earlier about presence of a range of support level on the downside and short position should be avoided as a relief rally might be expected soon. To sum up, a range of support level still exist from 5165 (200SMA) to 5200 (38.2% retracement) and trend in the market might only turn negative with a successive close below 5200. For the day Nifty to open gap up due to positive global cues and with Nifty sustaining above 5454 increases the odd of crossing the recent high of 5629. Crucial intraday support exists at 5400 and is likely to face intraday resistance near 5485.

LTP 1679.10 33.42 390.45 106.78 49.93 83.12 1.30

Daily Ch(%) -0.89 -0.46 0.05 0.07 -0.09 0.22 -0.10

U.S Market

Events for the day Events Estimate Import & Export Prices Railway Budget

Prior

Indian Market

Market Breadth Advances Declines Unchanged 52-week High 52-week Low

BSE 1639 1266 149 75 58

NSE 974 509 71 27 4

Support/Resistance levels for Indian Equity Indices S1 S2 CMP R1 R2 Sensex 17720 17625 17820 17905 18005 Nifty 5400 5370 5429 5454 5485 Nifty (Fut) 5440 5410 5468 5495 5525

U.S Market: U.S Market closed sharply higher Tuesday, pushing the major averages to multiyear highs, on news of a stronger US economy and recovering banking sector. Technically in DJIA presently rising wedge formation might be in place and crucial historical resistance of 13000 needs to be breached in order to continue its upward trajectory. However, negative divergence exists through RSI and Faster Oscillator presently in overbought region with ADX on a decreasing trend. Successive close below 12880 would change the outlook from positive to negative in extreme short term.

Short Term Outlook: Nifty presently had initiated breakout form the downward sloping channel around 5200 which further coincides with 200SMA in daily chart and 38.2% retracement level considering the low of 2252 and 6335 as the major peak, indicating Nifty has bottomed-out in the short term if the said support level holds. With lower panel of the channel line initiating support at 4700 which further coincides with 200SMA in weekly chart and 38.2% retracement level considering the low of 2252 and 6335 as the major peak indicating Nifty presently in a bottoming out process if the said support level holds. Elliot wave study also projects that a Zig-Zag formation being in place where wave A= wave C and ends at the same level of 4700, a new impulse wave might be in the making and projecting an upside potential till 5850-5900 (channel target also coinciding with March-April 2011 High). However, a possible double combination correction cannot be avoided and with two possible alternatives first being Zig-Zag Flat and the second being double Zig-Zag and projects a downside target of 4300 (50% retracement) at the breach 4700 level.

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TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE REPORT

Sector Performance:
10 % 0
AUTO BANKEX CD CG FMCG HC IT METAL OIL&GAS POWER

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Last three days sector wise performance

PSU

REALTY

TECK

-10

09.03.12

12.03.12

13.03.12

Sector Outlook
BSE Sectoral Indices AUTO Trend (ST)* SIDEWAYS Short Term Outlook The index has taken historical support around 8900 and provided the bounceback. Now the sector is expected to move within the broader range of 8900-9400. Cumminsind, Maruti, Tatamotors, Exide & Ashokeleyland can be the better pick from the sector. Historical trendline support around 11500 existed also coincided with 55EMA, presently the sector is expected to trade higher and 13000 might act as the immediate resistance. The Sector might outperform the Index. All the stock constituting the Index are in bullish formation. The sector also had been consolidating within a range with positive biasness as investors shifted focus to defensive stock. Presently the sector had been able to cross the 200SMA at 6280 and is also expected to remain positive if it sustains above the said level. Titan Ind, & Bajaj Elec need to be accumulated for an upside rally. 50% Retracement level support exist around 9800, the sector had been able to take support from the said level which further coincides with double bottom formation in daily chart. However, a possible head & Shoulder formation might be in place and breach of 9800 would be extremely negative for the sector. Bhel, Siemens, ABB, Havells, BEML, & AIAEng might be better pick from the sector. The sector had been on a rising trend presently the upward sloping channel provides support around 4100, breach of which might trigger some amount of selling pressure in the sector. ITC, Hindunilvr, Nestle & Colpal might be better pick from the sector. Breakout from the Symmetrical triangle formation in weekly chart has already been initiated around the level of 6300, the upside potentiality from the said pattern project 6800 in the short to medium term. The index is expected to outperform Nifty. Sunpharma, Drreddy, Lupin, Piramalhealth, Divislab, Strides & IPCALab looking good at current levels and need to be accumulated. Long term trendline support exist around 6000, the sector had been able to take support from the said level and provided the pullback. Presently crucial resistance level exist around 6400, breach of which might extend the current existing rally in the sector. Infy, Wipro, Hcltech, Ofss, Hexaware, Techm & Finantech have an upside potential. The trend in the particular sector still remain down however, 50% retracement level support of 11000 might provide some amount of relief. Tatasteel & Jindalstel has an upside potential. The sector has breached the long term trendline around 8550 and short term trend remains negative, sustaining above 8800 (50% retracement level might be positive for the sector. Reliance, Gail, BPCL & GSPl are the better pick from the sector. The sector presently trading above 200SMA and 23.6% retracement level of 2235, sustaining above which would be positive for the sector. The sector might outperform the Index. Tatapower, Powergrid, Reinfra, Rpower, Adanipower, Jswenergy, PTCIndia & GVKPIL are the better pick from the sector. remember

BANKEX

UP

CD

SIDEWAYS/ CONSOLIDATE

CG

CONSOLIDATE/ SIDEWAYS

FMCG

UP/SIDEWAYS

HC

UP/SIDEWAYS

IT

SIDEWAYS/UP

METAL

SIDEWAYS/CON SOLIDATE SIDEWAYS/CON SOLIDATE UP/CONSOLIDA TE

OIL & GAS

POWER

PREVIOUS DAYS RECOMMENDATION: FOLLOW- UPS Technical Call PTC BHEL Recommendation Buy Buy Remarks Recommended at 56.20 Recommended at 283 Profit / Loss (%) -

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DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL REPORT

Derivative Report

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Nifty gained by 1.17% with Nifty futures added 4.3 lakh shares in open interest and stock futures added 332.7 lakh shares in open interest. Nifty PCR increased to 1.13 compared to 1.09 Total Nifty Calls added 1 lakh Shares in Open Interest Total Nifty Puts added 29.9 lakh Shares in Open Interest Maximum open interest (Nifty) in Calls for March series is at 5600 and 5200 put. FII's bought net Rs. 872.68 Cr (provisional), while DIIs sold net Rs.433.74 Cr in cash market. FII sold net Rs.303.01 Cr. in F&O. ABGSHIP is in ban period.

Nifty Tracker PARTICULARS 13/3/2012 12/3/2012 09/3/2012 07/2/2012

Spot % Change in Spot Nifty(FUT) Mar Nifty(FUT) Mar Vol. Nifty(FUT) Mar - OI Nifty(FUT) Apr Nifty(FUT) Apr Vol. Nifty(FUT) Apr - OI

5429.5 1.17% 5468.4 268373 25084500 5507 10602 4208850

5366.8 0.62% 5388.75 321651 24980300 5428.75 14998 3992850

5333.55 2.17% 5364.15 320492 25273650 5401.1 10580 3785000

5220.45 0.24% 5258.7 417591 24902800 5297 17543 3719850

Trade Statistics for 13/03/2012 PARTICULARS NSE Index Futures NSE Stock Futures NSE Index Options NSE Stock Options NSE F&O Total Turnover NSE Cash Turnover BSE Cash Turnover Total Turnover NO. OF CONTRACTS 385565 454840 2347089 132588 3320082 TURNOVER (RS. CR.) 9917 13653 64038 3980 91588 12675 2926 107189 PUT CALL RATIO 1.12 0.44 1.07 -

FII Corner (F&O) FII NET BUYING/SELLING & CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST (Cr. Rupee) 13/03/2012 12/03/2012 PARTICULARS Index Future Index option Stock Future Stock option Total Net Buying /Selling -47 -220 132 -168 -303 Change In Open interest -54 3324 752 8 4029 Net Buying /Selling -674 4 292 25 -353 Change In Open interest -40 -1217 114 74 -1069

09/03/2012 Net Buying /Selling 491 156 39 118 804 Change In Open interest 891 1636 1038 170 3736

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DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL REPORT

Market Open Interest

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

ADDITION/REDUCTION IN MARKET OPEN INTEREST Contracts Index Futures Index Options Stock Futures Stock Options F&O Total 13/3/2012 456 903 1712 103 3175 12/3/2012 199 271 1052 175 1696 09/3/2012 743 916 73 164 1895.83 07/3/2012 -203 551 790 365 1502.68 06/3/2012 1313 -760 2126 267 2945.39

Nifty Option Open Interest Statistics NIFTY OPTIONS HIGHEST ADDITION IN OPEN INTEREST Option Type Settlement Price Volume PE PE PE PE CE CE PE PE PE PE 84.85 33.05 187.25 20.25 32.5 58.6 5.05 53.6 8.1 128.8 223406 183425 26509 182486 142042 239211 50519 232211 55636 71217

Expiry 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12

Strike 5400 5200 5600 5100 5700 5600 4800 5300 4900 5500

Open Interest 4725750 8170900 1316700 5215600 4652800 5597650 3997900 5744750 3555150 2966350

Change In OI 884750 629200 553600 398900 382700 351850 306500 287650 248500 181700

NIFTY OPTIONS HIGHEST REDUCTION IN OPEN INTEREST Expiry 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 26-Apr-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 Strike 5000 5400 5300 5200 5500 5000 4200 6400 3500 4300 Option Type PE CE CE CE CE PE PE CE PE PE Settlement Price 12.95 152.35 220 298.3 98.8 35.8 0.95 0.7 0.75 1 Volume 110289 146660 37163 8586 252644 7004 3099 7899 908 1836 Open Interest 5867600 3773550 3026050 2696550 5076250 823800 1080100 167400 405900 333500 Change In OI -722150 -523550 -314550 -171750 -119900 -78350 -50200 -48500 -45150 -38950

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DERIVATIVE & TECHNICAL REPORT

Stock Option Open Interest Statistics

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Symbol GVKPIL JPASSOCIAT SUZLON JPASSOCIAT SUZLON GMRINFRA BAJAJHIND GMRINFRA IBREALEST MTNL

STOCK OPTIONS WITH HIGHEST ADDITION IN OPEN INTEREST Settl. Expiry Strike Option Type Price Volume 29-Mar-12 17.5 PE 0.35 234 29-Mar-12 80 PE 3.05 628 29-Mar-12 32.5 CE 1.15 1415 29-Mar-12 75 PE 1.65 528 29-Mar-12 35 CE 0.65 758 29-Mar-12 35 CE 1.45 223 29-Mar-12 45 CE 0.35 65 29-Mar-12 30 PE 1.05 84 29-Mar-12 75 CE 4.3 179 29-Mar-12 37.5 CE 0.95 104

Open Interest 2484000 1340000 4968000 1844000 3944000 800000 1352000 432000 572000 1048000

Change in OI 1596000 800000 752000 716000 600000 480000 408000 368000 288000 288000

STOCK OPTIONS WITH HIGHEST REDUCTION IN OPEN INTEREST Symbol GVKPIL BAJAJHIND HINDALCO JPASSOCIAT SUZLON RCOM RCOM LITL ONGC RCOM Expiry 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 29-Mar-12 Strike 20 50 150 80 27.5 95 90 20 300 100 Option Type CE CE CE CE CE CE CE CE CE CE Settl. Price 1.3 0.15 3.95 6.65 3.25 8.5 12.25 3.6 3.2 5.9 Volume 534 64 1374 567 186 185 139 198 963 1036 Open Interest 5088000 488000 2072000 1536000 2224000 1136000 1004000 2016000 1874000 2844000 Change in OI -1740000 -472000 -380000 -356000 -328000 -320000 -276000 -252000 -220000 -212000

Paras Bothra Research Head- Equities Email: paras@ashikagroup.com Ph: (033) 40102529

Sandip Pal Sr. Analyst Email: sandip.p@ashikagroup.com Ph: (033) 22839952; Extn: 153

Tirthankar Das Technical Analyst Email: tirthankar.d@ashikagroup.com Ph: (033) 22891555; Extn: 115

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