2 views

Uploaded by Tony536

- Chapter 15 Suplementary
- Quiz 1 - Winter 2013
- ADM3352 - Final (Fall 2008)
- Portfolio Theory Examples&Answer
- Quiz 2 - Winter 2013
- Quiz No. 1 Sol
- ADM3352 - Quiz (Winter 2007)
- Fall 2011 - Midterm
- Problem Sheet 2
- Problem Sheet 1(a)
- Fall 2006 - Midterm Solutions
- CSC - Exam 1 - 2013
- CH02-DevelopingMarketingStrategies
- ADM3352 - Quiz (Winter 2007)
- ADM3352 - Midterm (Fall 2012)
- Stats 2 Final Problems Final Solutions
- Shoe Dog: A Memoir by the Creator of Nike
- Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It
- The Library Book
- Hidden Figures: The American Dream and the Untold Story of the Black Women Mathematicians Who Helped Win the Space Race

You are on page 1of 10

100

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =

V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

P[nM|V]=

0.1667 V & nM

0.0017

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9900 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.7000 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.3000

0.2970

0.6930

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0100 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.3053

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0273

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]

4 marks out of 4

0.2970

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9727

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

Among non-vandals we are told

250

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =

V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

P[nM|V]=

0.0667 V & nM

0.0003

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9960 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.7500 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.2500

0.2490

0.7470

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0040 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.2527

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0148

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]

4 marks out of 4

0.2490

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9852

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

Among non-vandals we are told

85

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =

V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

P[nM|V]=

0.2000 V & nM

0.0024

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9882 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.6500 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.3500

0.3459

0.6424

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0118 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.3553

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0265

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]

4 marks out of 4

0.3459

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9735

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

Among non-vandals we are told

300

V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

P[nM|V]=

0.0333 V & nM

0.0001

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9967 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.8000 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.2000

0.1993

0.7973

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0033 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.2026

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0159

P[ nV & M ]

4 marks out of 4

0.1993

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9841

complement rule

Among non-vandals we are told

265

V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

P[nM|V]=

0.1 V & nM

0.000377

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.996226415 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.85 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.15

0.149434

0.846792

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.004 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.153

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.022

P[ nV & M ]

4 marks out of 4

0.149

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.978

complement rule

- Chapter 15 SuplementaryUploaded byTony536
- Quiz 1 - Winter 2013Uploaded byTony536
- ADM3352 - Final (Fall 2008)Uploaded byTony536
- Portfolio Theory Examples&AnswerUploaded byTony536
- Quiz 2 - Winter 2013Uploaded byTony536
- Quiz No. 1 SolUploaded byTony536
- ADM3352 - Quiz (Winter 2007)Uploaded byTony536
- Fall 2011 - MidtermUploaded byTony536
- Problem Sheet 2Uploaded byTony536
- Problem Sheet 1(a)Uploaded byTony536
- Fall 2006 - Midterm SolutionsUploaded byTony536
- CSC - Exam 1 - 2013Uploaded byTony536
- CH02-DevelopingMarketingStrategiesUploaded byTony536
- ADM3352 - Quiz (Winter 2007)Uploaded byTony536
- ADM3352 - Midterm (Fall 2012)Uploaded byTony536
- Stats 2 Final Problems Final SolutionsUploaded byTony536

- SAP HANA Subject PointsUploaded bysridhar
- E- RetailingUploaded byshivani
- CS-AD Reference GuideUploaded byVinay Kuchana
- OWG000202 MSOFTX3000 Mc Interface Data Configuaration ISSUE1.0Uploaded byJashmikant Mohanty
- 20064ipcc Paper7A Vol1 Cp6Uploaded byvarunmonga90
- Book_VMware_Chapter_12Uploaded byRuizhen Huang
- Information Security Management LecturesUploaded byAkshay Mehta
- PTS_3_3_C_englishUploaded bysasahito
- Cyber Ark Ds DnaUploaded byrohit
- Brochure - GoPro HERO 4Uploaded bySi Tampan Restu
- IBM Sametime 9 Capabilities by ClientUploaded byArunmur
- descargar-libro-la-cofradia-de-la-mano-caida.pdfUploaded byAbel
- 8100 MDTS UMTS Radio Access Performance Test PacksUploaded bysatyabrata28
- OpenStack Networking TopicsUploaded byJeffery Padgett
- bs.na.en.1993.1.8.2005Uploaded bymasood_khalid
- User Manual for ESP 12e Dev kitUploaded byNathan Imig
- dsp notesUploaded byradz248
- tms320f28234Uploaded byknighthood4all
- 3 Keys to Fan List SuccessUploaded bySean Mc
- Storage Management GuideUploaded bybhaskar123.k
- Rapidinstall OverviewUploaded byAvinee Oils
- October 29th 2013 Pricelist.pdfUploaded bySimlim Sq
- Dec NetUploaded byPuthanveedu Rajan Santosh
- AlfaOBD Android HAlfaOBD_Android_HelpelpUploaded byАдрианЛюбитЛариса
- scormodel-111203104200-phpapp01Uploaded bySaripuddin Mappiasi
- NWKC_Student_Handbook.pdfUploaded byjmaloneynwk
- Catalogo TEC2000 0710Uploaded byfabiangpineda821
- Verification of Network SimulatorsUploaded byKing Mehdinho
- Module_2_7_RIPv2Uploaded byCo vu
- SeqHMM Package for RUploaded byneuromiguel