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QUIZ A Grade out of 40 marks Vandals

Among non-vandals we are told

Test Outcome for Marijuana Positive Negative 25 30 Non-Vandals 0.01

0.8333 0.3 that is 1 per


100

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =
V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

0.8333 0.1667 complement rule 0.3000 0.7000 complement rule

ANDS COLUMN Pr[ANDs] Marijuana|V P[M|V]= 0.8333 V&M 0.0083

non Marij |V P[Vandal] = 0.0100

P[nM|V]=

0.1667 V & nM

0.0017

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9900 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.7000 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.3000

0.2970

0.6930

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0100 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.3053

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0273

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]
4 marks out of 4

0.2970

from the tree

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9727

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

Quiz B Grade out of 40 marks Vandals


Among non-vandals we are told

Test Outcome for Marijuana Positive Negative 28 30 Non-Vandals 0.004

0.9333 0.25 that is 1 per


250

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =
V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

0.9333 0.0667 complement rule 0.2500 0.7500 complement rule

ANDS COLUMN Pr[ANDs] Marijuana|V P[M|V]= 0.9333 V&M 0.0037

non Marij |V P[Vandal] = 0.0040

P[nM|V]=

0.0667 V & nM

0.0003

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9960 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.7500 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.2500

0.2490

0.7470

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0040 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.2527

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0148

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]
4 marks out of 4

0.2490

from the tree

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9852

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

QUIZ C Grade out of 40 marks Vandals


Among non-vandals we are told

Test Outcome for Marijuana Positive Negative 24 30 Non-Vandals 0.0118

0.8 0.35 that is 1 per


85

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =
V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

0.8 0.2 complement rule 0.35 0.65 complement rule

ANDS COLUMN Pr[ANDs] Marijuana|V P[M|V]= 0.8000 V&M 0.0094

non Marij |V P[Vandal] = 0.0118

P[nM|V]=

0.2000 V & nM

0.0024

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9882 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.6500 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.3500

0.3459

0.6424

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0118 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.3553

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0265

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]
4 marks out of 4

0.3459

from the tree

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9735

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

QUIZ D Grade out of 40 marks Vandals


Among non-vandals we are told

Test Outcome for Marijuana Positive Negative 29 30 Non-Vandals 0.003

0.9667 0.2 that is 1 per


300

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =
V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

0.9667 0.0333 complement rule 0.2000 0.8000 complement rule

ANDS COLUMN Pr[ANDs] Marijuana|V P[M|V]= 0.9667 V&M 0.0032

non Marij |V P[Vandal] = 0.0033

P[nM|V]=

0.0333 V & nM

0.0001

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.9967 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.8000 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.2000

0.1993

0.7973

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.0033 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.2026

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.0159

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]
4 marks out of 4

0.1993

from the tree

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.9841

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome

QUIZ E Grade out of 40 marks Vandals


Among non-vandals we are told

Test Outcome for Marijuana Positive Negative 27 30 Non-Vandals 0.004

0.9 0.15 that is 1 per


265

Fraction of vandals among applicants Based on the data given we have P[ M | Vandal ] = P[ nM | Vandal] = P[ M | notVandal] = P[ nM | notVandal] =
V -> Vandal NoV-> Non-Vandal "M" -> Marijuana user "nM" -> non-Marijuana user 20 marks for complete probability tree; 10 for labelled without probs; 15 if missing ANDs probabilities Vandal

0.9 0.1 complement rule 0.15 0.85 complement rule

ANDS COLUMN Pr[ANDs] Marijuana|V P[M|V]= 0.9 V&M 0.003396

non Marij |V P[Vandal] = 0.003773585

P[nM|V]=

0.1 V & nM

0.000377

NoV & M Marijuana| nV Non-Vandal P[NotVandal] = 0.996226415 P[nM|nV]= Marijuana| nV 0.85 NoV & nM P[M|nV]= 0.15

0.149434

0.846792

(b) What is the fraction of Marijuana users in the pool of applicants? p[V] = 0.004 P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+P[notV]P[M|notV] P[M]=P[V]P[M|V]+(1-P[V])*P[M|notV] P[M] = 0.153

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution

(c.) If an applicant tests positive for Marijuana, what is the probability that s/he is a vandal? P[V|M] = P[V&M]/P[M] P[V|M] = (P[V]P[M|V])/P[M] P[V|M] = 0.022

8 marks, with 6 of those allocated to explicating solution (highlighting the contributing elements from the P-tree is sufficient)

(d)IfyouuseMarijuanauseasascreeningtest,whatistheprobabilitythatyouwillinadvertentlyscreenoutanonvandal?

P[ nV & M ]
4 marks out of 4

0.149

from the tree

P[ nV | M ] = 1 - P[ V| M] P[ nV | M ] =

0.978

complement rule

2 marks out of 4,but note that strictly incorrect because though conditional on testing, it is not conditional on M+ outcome