Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Introduction
Manpower planning and development is also known as human resource planning. This
process is an essential cornerstone in the efficient management of personnel in an organization. Manpower planning entails getting the right number and type of personnel to do the required tasks for the fulfillment of the goals and objectives of the organization. The manpower planning process is an ongoing and continuous strategy which is undertaken through a systematic set of procedures.

Analysis entails assessing the current status of the manpower within the organization. The analysis is done by taking an inventory of the skills, competencies and abilities of all personnel in the organization. It is also entails accounting for the number of departments and the sizes of these departments within the organization. The analysis helps the human resource (HR) managers to make informed forecasts about the human resource needs of the organizations.

The gap analysis is a comparison of the current status of an organizations manpower and the projected manpower needs. The gap analysis entails detailing the specific numbers of employees needed, how restructuring will be done, the steps which will be taken to train employees, and the types of skills and competencies needed to undertake various tasks in the organization. The gap analysis is taken as a preparatory step for the development and implementation of programs that will assist the organization to meet its human resources needs.

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Objective(s) of the Study:

Broad Objective- Manpower Planning Process at Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd. Specific Objectives- There are some specific objectives to properly doing the report. a) Find out the demand forecasting techniques. b) Identify the supply forecasting process. c) Calculation of gap between requirements and availabilities. d) To explore the action plans taken by the Bank.

Methodology:
In this report the type of data is qualitative and there are mainly two sources I have used to prepare the report properly. The sources are given below:

Primary- The face-to-face interview was taken, where one person-the interviewer, asks the respondent

Secondary- We collected some information from the internet. We also took some information from the book.

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Company Overview
Bangladesh Commerce Bank Limited (BCBL) was established by the act no. I2 of 1997,
passed by the Parliament of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh. Subsequently on February 8, 1998 as per clause 7 of act 12 of 1997, the Government constituted an 11 member Board of Directors to organize BCBL and administer the affairs of the Bank in accordance with the Act. Bangladesh Commerce Bank Limited was incorporated on June 1, 1998 as a public limited company under the company act 1994, Banking Companies act 1991 and in accordance with the act no. 12 of 1997. The Bank formally started operation from September 16, 1999 with the slogan of A Peoples Bank with a Mission. Capital: The Authorized and the Paid-up capital of the Bank is Tk.2000 million and Tk.920 million respectively. Out of Tk.920 million, the Government contributed Tk.300 million and the depositors of former BCI contributed Tk.520 million as their equity share. The balance Tk.100 million is subscribed by 3 nationalized Bank.

Vision & Mission

Vision

Become a bank of first choice by the customers with meaningful contributions to the
society.

Mission 3

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Bangladesh Commerce Bank Limited is committed to fulfill its customers needs and
become their first choice in banking so that a sustainable growth, reasonable return and contribution to the socio-economic development of the country can be ensured with a motivated and professional work-force.

BCBL Hierarchy
General Manager Operational officer First executive Officer Officer Senior Assistant Officer (GBD) Cashier Messenger/Peon Cleaner Arm Guard
Figure 1 Hierarchy of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Commencement of Business: Having been registered with the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies (RJSC) and Firms with the prior approval of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Bangladesh

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Commerce Bank Limited commenced banking operation with the opening of its Principal Branch at 19, Rajuk Avenue, Motijheel Commercial Area, the financial hub of the capital city Dhaka on September 16, 1999. By the end of the accounting year1999, the other 23 branches in Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Sylhet metropolitan area and Bogra, Naogaon, Narayangonj started functioning. At present BCBL is successfully running operation in 25 branches with its last branch opened in Comilla. Export/Import/Foreign Exchange business is being done through our A/D Branches. We are also member of SWIFT. Import-Export, Foreign exchange, remittance related activities are performed with SWIFT.

Board/EC/Audit Committee Meeting: The Board of Directors is constituted with 11 members, 7 of them nominated by the Government & other 4 members from private equity holders as per the memorandum and article of association & as a public-private partnership. The Board of Directors meets at least once in a month to consider and review various important policy matters relating to its operation and management. Besides, EC & Board Audit committee meetings are also held regularly.

Literature Review
Manpower planning process is basically the staffing employees in the organization.
Staffing is not an event, such as we hired two people today. Rather, staffing is a process that establishes and governs the flow of people into the organization, within the organization, and out of the organization. There are multiple, interconnected systems that

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. organization use to manage the people flows. These include planning, recruitment, selection, decision making, job offer, and retention systems. (Book, Staffing organization by Herbert G. Henemen lll. Timothy A. Judge Page 8 2nd Para) The quality or head-count portion of the staffing definition means organizations must be concerned about staffing levels and their adequacy. The organization as a whole, as well as for each of its units, forecasts workforce quantity requirements- the needed head count- and then compares these to forecasted workforce availabilities- the likely employee head-count to determine its likely staffing level position. If head-count requirements match availabilities, the projection is that the organization will be fully staffed. If requirements exceed availabilities, the organization will be understaffed and if availabilities exceed requirements, the organization will be overstaffed. The organization has to match the requirements with the availabilities, and then it will call fully staffed. (Book, Staffing organization by Herbert G. Henemen lll. Timothy A. Judge Page 12 1st Para)

Staffing Quantity Projected Staffing Requirements

Compare
Projected Staffing Availabilities

Overstaffed Fully Staffed

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Understaffed

Manpower Planning:

Human resource planning can be defined as the process of identifying the number of
people required by an organization in terms of quantity and quality. All human resource management activities start with human resource planning. So we can say that human resource planning is the principle/primary activity of human resource management. From human resource planning the organization identifies how many people it has currently and how many people will be required in future. Based on this information major human resource decisions are taken. (http://www.buzzle.com/articles/manpower-planning-process-andstaffing.html) 27th October, 2011.

Objectives of Manpower Planning

The basic purpose of having manpower plan is to have an accurate estimate of the number
of employees required, with matching skill requirements to meet organizational objectives. It provides information about the manner in which existing personnel are employed, the kind of skills required for different categories of jobs and manpower needs over a period of time in relation to organizational objectives. It would also give an indication of the lead time that is available to select and train the required number of additional manpower. More specifically, manpower planning is required to meet the following objectives:

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

a. Forecast personnel requirements. b. Cope with changes. c. Use existing manpower productivity. d. Promote employees in a systematic manner. (Human Resource Planning, chapter-4, from sheet provided by, Rahman Tasnuva, senior Lecturer at Eastern University, Bangladesh.) Need of Manpower Planning

Manpower Planning is a two-phased process because manpower planning not only

analyses the current human resources but also makes manpower forecasts and thereby draw employment programmers. Manpower Planning is advantageous to firm in following manner: Shortages and surpluses can be identified so that quick action can be taken wherever required. All the recruitment and selection programmers are based on manpower planning. It also helps to reduce the labor cost as excess staff can be identified and thereby overstaffing can be avoided. It also helps to identify the available talents in a concern and accordingly training programmers can be chalked out to develop those talents. It helps in growth and diversification of business. Through manpower planning, human resources can be readily available and they can be utilized in best manner. It helps the organization to realize the importance of manpower management which ultimately helps in the stability of a concern. (http://www.managementstudyguide.com/manpower-planning.htm) 29th October, 2011. Process of Human Resource Planning 8

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

1. Analyzing the Corporate Level Strategies: Human Resource Planning should start with analyzing corporate level strategies which include expansion, diversification, mergers, acquisitions, reduction in operations, technology to be used, method of production etc. Therefore Human Resource Planning should begin with analyzing the corporate plans of the organization before setting out on fulfilling its tasks.

2. Demand forecasting: Forecasting the overall human resource requirement in accordance with the organizational plans is one of the key aspects of demand forecasting. Forecasting of quality of human resources like skills, knowledge, values and capabilities needed in addition to quantity of human resources is done through the following methods: a. Executive or Managerial Judgment: Here the managers decide the number of employees in the future. They adopt one of the three approaches mentioned below: -

Bottom-Up approach: Here the concerned supervisors send their proposals to the top officials who compare these with the organizational plans, make necessary adjustments and finalize them. Top-Down approach: Here the management prepares the requirements and sends the information downwards to the supervisory level who finalizes the draft and approves it. Participative Approach: Here the supervisors and the management sit together and projections are made after joint consultations. b. Statistical Techniques: These methods use statistical methods and mathematical techniques to forecast and predict the supply and demand of Human Resources in the future.

Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Ratio-Trend analysis: In this method depending on the past data regarding number of employees in each department, like production department, sales department, marketing department and workload level, etc ratios for manpower are estimated. Past values are plotted and extrapolated to get fairly accurate future projections. c. Work Study method: This technique is suitable to study the correlation between volume of work and labor i.e. demand for human resources is estimated based on the workload. Work study method is more appropriate for repetitive and manual jobs when it is possible to measure work and set standards. d. Delphi Technique: Delphi Technique is named after the Greek Oracle at the city of Delphi. In this method, the views of different experts related to the industry are taken into consideration and then a consensus about the Human Resource requirement is arrived at. Delphi technique is used primarily to assess long-term needs of human resource.

3. Analyzing Human Resource Supply: Every organization has two sources of supply of Human Resources: Internal & External. Internally, human resources can be obtained for certain posts through promotions and transfers. In order to judge the internal supply of human resources in future human resource inventory or human resource audit is necessary. Human resource inventory helps in determining and evaluating the quantity of internal human resources available. Once the future internal supply is estimated, supply of external human resources is analyzed. 4. Estimating manpower gaps: Manpower gaps can be identified by comparing demand and supply forecasts. Such comparison will reveal either deficit or surplus of Human Resources in the future. Deficit suggests the number of persons to be recruited from outside, whereas surplus implies redundant employees to be re-deployed or terminated.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Employees estimated to be deficient can be trained while employees with higher, better skills may be given more enriched jobs.

5. Action Planning: Once the manpower gaps are identified, plans are prepared to bridge these gaps. Plans to meet the surplus manpower may be redeployment in other departments and retrenchment. Deficit can be met through recruitment, selection, transfer and promotion. Hence, the organization has to plan for retaining of existing employees.

7. Controlling and Review: After the action plans are implemented, human resource structure and the processes should be controlled and reviewed with a view to keep them in accordance with action plans. (http://www.mbaknol.com/human-resource-management/process-ofhuman-resource-planning/) 27th October, 2011.

Body Part
Manpower planning

Manpower planning is required in order to start staffing. Manpower planning, in simple

words, means planning the human resources need of the organization. In management terms, this process is also known as human resources planning or personnel management. Human resources planning process precedes the process of manpower staffing. The following aspects need to be analyzed in the process of manpower planning. BCBL assess its employee in some systematic process. These are given below:

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Manpower planning process at BCBL: 1. Review of Organizations Objectives The HRD Manager first studies the objectives of the organization. Then he prepares a list of all the activities (jobs) that are required to achieve the objectives. He also does Job's analysis. 2. Estimation of Manpower Requirements The HRD manager then estimates the manpower requirement of the organization. That is, he finds out how many people (manager and employers) will be required to do all the jobs in the organization. Estimation of manpower requirements must be made in terms of quantity and quality.

3. Estimation of Manpower Supply The HRD manager then estimates the manpower supply. That is, he finds out how many managers, and employers are available in the organization.

4. Comparison of Manpower The HRD manager then compares the manpower requirements and manpower supply.

6. Motivation of Manpower

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

HRP also motivates the employers and managers by providing, financial and non-financial incentives. 7. Monitoring Manpower Requirements The HRD manager must continuously monitor the manpower requirements. This is because many employees and managers leave the organization by resignation, retirement, etc. and new work force must take their place fill the manpower gap. This helps in uninterruptible functioning of the organization. Policies of Manpower Planning at BCBL:

To control the cost of all the Human Resource activities. Cope up with the changing culture of the competitive environment by other related banking sectors. Changing the role of personnel and line managers according to the requirements. BCBLs policy is grounded on the mutually beneficial, honest, open-minded and equal-right partnership between the employees and the Company. Continuous career enhancement of the employees, encouragement of the Company goal achievement, promotion, strict compliance to corporate culture and individuality respect. Keeping investing into development of the human capital and training of the employees in the field of HR knowledge.

Objectives of Manpower Planning at BCBL:

Success can only be achieved however, if staff feels they are being treated correctly by the
Bank and fully understand the Banks objectives and rationale for their achievement. It is

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. essential, therefore, that we develop an employee relations climate which facilitates these attitudes without reducing managements ability to manage the business. The key human resources objectives are therefore: A motivated and well trained staff geared to performance. Control and authority of staff by line managers with Personnel support. Analysis of the current manpower of the organization. Computation of the future required manpower for the organization. Development of the existing manpower of the organization. Planning the employee training requirements of the existing manpower of the organization. Planning for the future needs of the organization.

Benefits gets BCBL from Manpower Planning:

Enable the determination of personnel needs of an organization It is an essential component of strategic planning

It helps to ascertain and identify critical shortages of skilled staff and take corrective action by timely recruitment, etc so as to prevent production break-down or under-utilization of plant capacity

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. An integral part of managerial succession plan by identifying and developing potential managers Enable organization to cope with changes in competitive forces, markets, technology, product, etc. Enable the procurement of personnel with necessary qualification, skill knowledge, work experience and proper work attitude. Involves in selection and development of employees well in advance so as to meet any contingencies. Besides looking and reacting to staff deficit, Manpower Planning is also able to identify any surplus/redundancy, if any in an organization.

Responsibilities of HR Manager at BCBL

Following are the responsibilities of HR Officer in Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd.Recruitment and Selection Policy Making Retention Program Improve Working Relation of Employees

Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd. HRM Management is responding to changing environment by

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Follow Customers Needs Adopt Continuous Changes Decentralized Organization

Time Frame of Planning at BCBL

The ongoing process of systematic planning to achieve optimum use of an organization's

most valuable asset - its human resources. The objective of human resource (HR) planning is to ensure the best fit between employees and jobs, while avoiding manpower shortages or surpluses. The three key elements of the HR planning process are forecasting labor demand, analyzing present labor supply, and balancing projected labor demand and supply. Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd. mainly does the long term HR planning. Organizations need to consider how far into the future to project when carrying out workforce planning. Managers need to balance the certainty of short-range planning against the need to plan for longer-range objectives. Longer time frames may provide more flexibility in planning workforce transition but also will require regular validation of the analysis of future workforce needs. Shorter time frames run the risks of requiring more drastic workforce transition management and of missing coming changes by not looking far enough into the future.

Scanning Process of Environment at BCBL:

Human resource planning can be defined as the process of identifying the number of
people required by an organization in terms of quantity and quality. All human resource management activities start with human resource planning. So we can say that human resource planning is the principle/primary activity of human resource management.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. Whether the bank will go to recruitment or not this is determined by some factors: They analyze the employment situation in the country. Whether there is opportunity for the new applicants indifferent sectors. They focus on the technological demand and changes. Technology changes at a very fast speed and new people having the required knowledge are required for the company. They also analyze what other banks are doing to generate their revenues. The economical conditions are also very important issue for going recruitment. They focus the inflation rate, interest rate, money available to the consumers etc. The employee effectiveness and their achievement level of assigned work. How well a person is doing a job is recognized by the bank. Need for the new skills required to perform the job by the employee. If there is any new skills that bank need to do the jobs, and available employees dont have that skills or knowledge, then bank go for the new hiring.

Methods of Demand Forecasting at BCBL:

The most commonly performed statistical procedure in SST is multiple regression analysis.
The REG command provides a simple yet flexible way compute ordinary least squares regression estimates. Options to the REG command permit the computation of regression diagnostics and two-stage least squares (instrumental variables) estimate.

The linear regression model

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. In the linear regression model, the dependent variable is assumed to be a linear function of one or more independent variables plus an error introduced to account for all other factors: In the above regression equation, y_i is the dependent variable, x_i1, ...., x_iK are the independent or explanatory variables, and u_i is the disturbance or error term. The goal of regression analysis is to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters Beta_1, ..., Beta_K which indicate how a change in one of the independent variables affects the values taken by the dependent variable. (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/sst/regression.html) 16th November, 2011. Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. used to do regression analysis to accurately identify the required number of human resource at different levels of the bank. They try to evaluate the required number of employees by this method. The goal of regression analysis is to determine the values of parameters for a function that cause the function to best fit a set of data observations that you provide. In linear regression, the function is a linear (straightline) equation. According to this, BCBL focuses on the variables that increase their profitability. Matching this variable or by judging the value of parameters they guess the requirements. They have analyzed the availabilities of employees in the bank by using two method, turnover analysis and skill inventory. They have also used the past years information to get some knowledge about the nature of demand that the bank faces throughout the years. They got that they will need 9 employees (6 promotion + 3 terminated) to fulfill their requirements. But they have decided that they will hire 8 peoples, among them 6 will be replaced in those of promoted and they will do job enlargement and distribute the works among the 2 new hires to do the work of those terminated employees.

Methods of Supply Forecasting at BCBL:

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

BCBL not only analyze the demand of human resource, but also examine the supply of
human resource of the bank to identify the gap accurately. To do so, they use qualitative approach by two types of methods. Turnover analysis. Skill inventory.

BCBL monitor their turnover as more than just a static number on a monthly or annual report. They analyze detailed data about their terminations to determine a tenure threshold. BCBL properly examines the previous years employee turnover rate that may result in retirement, death, disability, resignation, retrenchment, termination. They analyze the previous 1 or 2 years result then they calculate the present probable turnover and thus decide the availability.

Figure 2 Turnover Analysis

(http://www.michaelswilderhr.com/retention/retention_turnover_analysis. php) 17th November, 2011.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. A skills inventory is a compilation of the skills, education and experiences of current employees. Organizations use these inventories to assess their ability to meet certain company goals. Understanding the companys pool of current skills/talents and its future skill requirements can aid an organization in its strategic planning efforts. (http://www.shrmindia.org/how-can-skills-inventory-be-used-strategic-hrplanning) 17th November, 2011. BCBL also calculate the human resources by skill inventory. It helps the bank to evaluate the promotion, replacement, demotion etc. and what skill or qualification is needed to fulfill the positions. There is another method called replacement chart which is quite similar to the skill inventory, but skill inventory is more effective for judging the human resource. BCBL also focus on the skill inventory. They analyze the data of current employees. Their qualification, salary and job history, capabilities of employees, special preferences of individuals etc. and then decide who deserves promotion or demotion, and who need more training to overcome their lacking. BCBL have 30 branches consisting of 2198 employees. The branch I have visited have 24 employees at different levels. They have done skill inventory last year for their branch. They examine the skills of all the employees. They found that there are 6 employees who has more skills and deserves promotion. They have another 12 employees who has capabilities but need more training to properly execute their jobs. They will terminate 3 employees. There are 3 employees who are older and soon will retire. But they are experienced, so the bank plans to retain them for another few years. They have planned for the new hiring for the replacement of those promotion seeking employees. This is how they have done their supply forecasting for operating their banking activities. Matching Between Demand & Supply:

These are the actions that BCBL or any bank or organization does to stabilize the
requirements and availabilities of human resources.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. 1. Manpower Surplus If the manpower requirements are less then the manpower supply then there is a surplus. During manpower surplus, the HRD manager takes the following actions:a) Termination i.e. removal of staff. b) Lay-off. c) Voluntary retirement. d) Retain.

2. Manpower Shortage If the manpower requirements are greater than the manpower supply then there is manpower shortage. During manpower shortage, the HRD manager takes the following actions:a) Promotions b) Overtime c) Training to improve quality. d) Hire staff from outside, etc. In the case of Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd. the bank at first get the information of human supply then analyze the demand of human resource. As they have analyzed the demand and supply of human resources, they took initiatives to implement those actions. They have 9 people requirements and they have got this from the analysis of their demand, supply gap. They have decided that they will hire 8 new applicants. Among them 6 will be positioned in those gaps and they will distribute the work between 2 new hires by enlarging the job. They wont go for 3 people. Because they dont want to give salary of 1 more person at this moment.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

Findings
BCBL does the manpower planning which take too much time to implement. They took long time to analyze the availabilities and requirements to stabilize the human resource need.

The banks hiring process is not bias free, as a result they face problems recruiting skilled employees most of the time.

At the time of hiring new applicants they didnt hire the actual required number of employees that they need. Most of the time they do this type of thing, which may result ineffective actions for successful operating the bank activities.

The person who is responsible for doing human resource planning is not given proper authority to analyze the activities of demand and supply forecasting. At the same time he does not have excellent knowledge about information technology as because he is senior employee and does not familiar with technology.

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Recommendations

BCBL should do the analysis of human resource planning more efficiently so that they take less time to give result.

When the bank is hiring new applicants for posts, they should ensure that they are taking those applicants without any biasness. To do so, they can take help from the agencies, who will take interview and tests of applicants and select best applicants for them.

Sometimes they dont hire the same number of applicants that they need. Rather they take less number of applicants and distribute the works among them to save the cost. They can take the required number of applicants ensuring that they are highly motivated, and then they will increase their productivity and thus reduce their cost as well.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd. They should give proper training to the persons who are responsible for human resource planning. They can arrange training session time to time and could train the employees to efficiently use the techniques.

Conclusion
There is no denying the fact that the continual positive development of a business is owing
to its effective planning. Making preparations and arrangements on the basis of what is expected to happen and performing tasks in an organized and capable way is one of the important roles of management in that it involves effective planning process. It is through the process of planning as well as designing the organizational structure by assigning an assortment of responsibilities to the employees that business organizations may accomplish their set objectives. The concept that the right person should be employed at the right place and at the right time is vitally important to a business as it includes a wide and comprehensive range of activities in relation to the management of man while it entails man power planning, at the same time, being focused on the effective utilization of existing human element as well as fulfilling future needs of manpower in the organizations whenever the situations necessitate. Man power planning is the process of determining manpower requirements and the means for meeting those requirements in order to carry out the integrated plan of the organization. Man power planning is indispensable for an organization to perform the activities efficiently as well as in a way that produces desired results.

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Manpower Planning & Forecasting Process Of Bangladesh Commerce Bank ltd.

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