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10.3.2008
How to Prove Causality
There are four criteria that have to be met in order to prove causality:
1. Association
2. Prediction
3. Excluding Alternative Hypotheses
4. Dose Dependence
• Association
When comparing two variables the best way of doing so is via Regression
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis).
Regression is the first step in proving causality. It represents an association between two
items on a linear scale. A regression analysis is depicted visually below.
If regression analysis exhibits some sort of association between the two variables within a
certain statistical variance, then one can fairly claim that there is a relationship between
the two items (a correlation).
In the behavioral sciences, in order for the sample size to be large enough to prove a
statistical relationship, the following chart is used, developed by Cohen & Cohen in
“Applied Multiple Regression…” 2nd edition, 1983 pg. 530
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How to Prove Causality
10.3.2008
Desired Population r [Effect Size Expressed as r]
power .10 .20 .30 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 .90
.25 166 42 20 12 8 6 5 4 3
.50 384 95 42 24 15 10 7 6 4
.60 489 121 53 29 18 12 9 6 5
2/3 570 141 62 34 21 14 10 7 5
• Prediction
The second step to proving causality is prediction. Prediction entails making a logical
assumption as to how events will transpire and then testing for it. Therefore, the
assumption could be made that tall people will run faster on the basis that they have
longer legs, have a higher metabolic rate, have stronger muscles, etc. Being able to
reliably predict something is crucial to causality.
Each relevant alternative hypothesis has to be accounted for and negated in order for your
proposition or assertion to explain the phenomenon being described. Your assertion needs
to go above and beyond all other variables in order for it to be considered causal.
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How to Prove Causality
10.3.2008
• Dose Dependence
Dose dependence is the final and most critical element in proving causality. Essentially,
dose dependence states that, “It is in reference to the effects of treatment with a drug. If
the effects change when the dose of the drug is changed, the effects are said to be dose-
dependent” (NCI).
Above is the dosage plan for a child when taking Tylenol. Tylenol has undergone several
studies and has been shown to be dependent on the weight of the person using it. For the
same effect to be felt by a child who weighs 95 lbs as a child who weighs 35 lbs, the child
has to take 3 teaspoons and 1 teaspoon, respectively.
Dose dependence indicates a direct, measurable causation of the impact of one stimulus
on another. If this is proven, along with the aforementioned criteria, you can state that a
particular variable has a causal relationship with another variable.