Issue 5 February 24, 2012

February 24, 2012 China will not instigate arms race, says Defense Ministry Conference is the next stage of a long journey for Somalia Humanitarian situation is dramatically deteriorating in several regions of Syria Key challenge is to prevent civil war in Syria, Medvedev and Ahmadinejad agree Israeli measures hold up peace process, says Jordanian King Abdullah Ban extends mandate of UN-backed tribunal in Lebanon Chinese VP Xi Jinping meets with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan UN Security Council calls for large increase to African peace force in Somalia Israel is particularly concerned about Hezbollah's activity in Africa February 23, 2012 France is concerned by the deteriorating situation in Senegal Economic sanctions against Syria are counterproductive, Medvedev and al-Maliki agree Vice president Xi Jinping's visits enhance Chinese ties with Ireland, Turkey US Deputy Defense Secretary Carter, Afghan Defense

Xi's US visit: better to travel 10,000 miles than read 10,000 books
In following up on the plan to exchange Vice Presidential visits between China and the U.S., Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visited the U.S. for 5 days last week. Drawing worldwide attention and curiosity, many described the fanfare and level of support for his visit as summit-like. The visit included 30 events spread out over four cities, including Washington D.C., Muscatine, Des Moines, and Los Angeles. Many American officials compared the level of support to that of the extraordinary support provided when U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited China in August of 2011. The U.S. viewed the visit as an opportunity to reciprocate, and credits Bidens August visit for setting the tone for last weeks visit. U.S. preparations seemed to pull out all the stops, and included an elaborate military ceremony where Xi passed through an honor cordon and received full military honors, including a 19-gun salute and the playing of both the Chinese and U.S. national anthems. Xi described his welcoming as warm and the hospitality extraordinary. Alas, Xi was not visiting the U.S. to be pampered. Both parties approached the trip with a familiar list of cooperative initiatives they planned to discuss. In the beginning of the visit, the U.S. and China affirmed their collective goals under the framework of the Economic Track of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED). Engagements during the visit ranged from meetings at the White House, the Pentagon, and on Capitol Hill, a large luncheon with the State Department, a return visit to a farm in Iowa, and meeting students at a Los Angeles school. Throughout his visit, U.S. officials
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Minister meet to discuss progress UN deplores Israeli approval of more settlements in West Bank US wants to see the political progress in Somalia to match the security progress on the ground EU will support Cyprus in its role of Presidency of the Council Presidential Election marks an important milestone in Yemen's transition, says EU No agreement was reached with Iran, IAEA regrets Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd resigns Rajoy and Cameron analyse the structural reforms needed in Europe Antarctica remains vital to the wider interests of the UK Latvia and France sign Strategic Partnership Action Plan UN experts in Iran to discuss concerns of nuclear programme Rwanda and Uganda meet over Border Security UK is committed to its relationship with Pakistan for the long term February 22, 2012 British FCO sees progress in Afghanistan Chinese vice premier stresses strategic partnership with Indonesia US congratulates Yemenis on successful presidential election Clinton travels to the UK, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco Cooperation with Iran is an important vector of Turkmenistan's foreign policy Ties between UK and Pakistan remain strong

continued to emphasize that the U.S. welcomes Chinas peaceful and responsible rise to prosperity the world. Described as an ongoing series of high-level consultations that the U.S. has with the Chinese on a host of issues, U.S. President Barack Obama and others touted the event as an opportunity to build on the U.S.- China relationship. Additionally, the U.S. also saw the visit as an opportunity to develop its relationship specifically with Vice President Xi. It is anticipated Xi will become head of his Party in the fall, and then President of China in the spring of 2013. With this in mind, the U.S. aimed to learn about Xi and to build on the exchanges they have had with him over the past three years. An investment of time in and resources for Xis trip is thus also an investment in the future of China-U.S. relations. In describing Xi before the visit, U.S. officials noted his experience working in local and provincial levels in China, which informs his deep knowledge of domestic issues in China as well as international issues. They also noted that Xi comes across as someone who is extremely well prepared, thoughtful, very engaged. Xi described the main purpose of his visit as focusing on implementing existing agreements between the countries and to move the China-U.S. relationship along in the right direction. He also hoped to engage with people from all walks of life while on his visit so as to deepen mutual understanding, expand consensus, strengthen cooperation, and deepen the friendship between the Chinese and American people. Upon arriving, Xi expressed Chinas satisfaction with the way the countries have deepened practical cooperation in a wide array of areas, including how they carried out productive communication and coordination on a range of major international, regional, and global issues. His message to his comrades was familiar, and he suggested ways to move forward with the relationship by reviewing and learning from 40 years of history, taking a long-term perspective, building trust and respect, and ensuring the relationship is mutually beneficial. He also pushed the importance of sincere dialogue and communication, the advancement of pragmatic cooperation, the promotion of people-topeople exchanges, and using collective strength to cope with challenges together. Additional priorities included sending more than 500 Chinese business leaders out into the field, resulting in more than 149 contracts for goods and services signed worth around $40 billion. Several common themes appeared as a result of Xis wide-ranging talks, and each had its own range of cohesion and discord. The issue of human rights abuses in China was among the stickier subjects. In general, the U.S. expressed its unwillingness to back away from this topic for the sake of a comfortable visit, stressing that it insists that China adhere to the almost globally accepted norms and behaviors. Xi responded by saying that there is always room for improvement when it comes to human rights. Xi agreed that Chinas immense, diverse population poses special challenges that China has not yet solved. He said that China takes the U.S.s concerns seriously, continues to take concrete and effective measures to promote human rights, and hopes to conduct more exchanges to achieve common progress. Regarding the smoother

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and unbroken South Sudan ready to support peace efforts in Darfur Malaysia, Thailand identify six areas to enhance cooperation 5 more years for IndiaPakistan agreement on reducing nuclear risks Working Group on Horn of Africa launched by EU and Turkey The EU and Jordan enjoy long-standing relationship The EU renewed its commitment to foster peace and security in Somalia Myanmar and Thailand share same interest in stability and prosperity February 21, 2012 Space and information will determine the nature of an armed conflict, Russian PM Putin writes Chinese VP Xi Jinping meets Irish President Michael Higgins on boosting ties Chinese defense minister meets with Indonesian counterpart EU reaffirms its desire to engage in a serious political dialogue with Zimbabwe Romania will develop its contribution to the European Security, says PM Ungureanu Macedonian FM Poposki pleads for his country's NATO membership Russia prizes the mediatory role of the African Union in interSudan issue America will continue to stand with Egypt, says McCain Cameron and 11 other leaders suggest priority areas for growth in Europe Belgrade wants agreement in dialogue with Pristina Arab League aims to

subjects, both parties frequently stressed the importance of mutual trust. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stressed that mutual trust, especially between the military establishments, is essential to ensure peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region and to advance their cooperative partnerships. U.S. defense officials committed to continuing with high-level visits towards this goal. Both parties agreed to discuss direct military exchanges and cooperation, especially in the areas of counterpiracy and humanitarian assistance. However, each countrys idea of how to realize this differs. The U.S. hopes that China will embrace transparency as a means towards building mutual trust. China hopes that, based on equality and reciprocity, the countries' defenses would respect and tend to each other's major concerns, and nurture and enhance strategic mutual trust in an effort to build a healthy, stable and mature military to military relationship. The United States and China are the two biggest economies in the world, and both are each other's second largest trading partners. Last year, U.S. exports to China topped $100 billion, and China-U.S. trade volume exceeded $440 billion. By U.S. estimations, 3 million new jobs were added to the U.S. economy between 2001 and 2011 due to exports to China, and has added about $1,000 extra dollars to the annual income of each household. Xi credited Chinese and American friends from various sectors for the painstaking and resourceful efforts they have made for the development of ChinaU.S. relations for this amazing progress. Biden credited the international system for enabling rapid development, promoting competition, and by providing grounding rules that apply to all nations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the United States is ready to work with China to develop closer economic and trade cooperation, jointly promote economic growth of the two countries, maintain global financial stability, stimulate global economic recovery and promote governance of the international system. Xi suggested greater focus on reaching the duos cooperation potential and striving for greater balance in trade. While China has already agreed to remove certain discriminatory procurement policies and business innovation policies, U.S. officials noted increasing discord in the business community over Chinese business practices. The U.S. wishes to find ways to level the playing field, strengthen intellectual property rights protection, and to promote international rules and norms within China. Xi stressed that both sides should resolve their differences through equal consultation instead of politicizing economic issues, adding that protectionism is not conducive to upholding the mutually beneficial economic arrangement. This year marks the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixons visit to China and the issuance of the Shanghai Communique. Xis visit and the frank discussions that Chinese and American interlocutors enjoy point to the immense progress the pairing has made in the past four decades despite difficulties over the years. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney made it clear that, for both countries, it was a measure of importance of the relationship between the countries that Xi had as many high level meetings while on his trip through the U.S. The China-U.S. relationship has

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develop an unified Arab stance towards the Somali crisis February 20, 2012 Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan vow to enhance Trilateral Cooperation Security Council extends mandate of panel on Darfur-related sanctions By-elections in Myanmar will be key test of commitment to democracy US and Kosovo signed a Status of Forces Agreement NATO marks 60 years of membership by Greece and Turkey UK and France are determined to sustain a high level of defence spending UN General Assembly demands Syria halt violence without delay Afghan and Pakistan Presidents stress enhanced bilateral trade cooperation Chinese vice-president Xi Jinping's US tour hailed as futureoriented landmark Hungary should respect the EU's basic values, say MEPs

become one of the most important, dynamic, and promising bilateral relationships in the world, and is thought by many to be at a critical turning point as the U.S. refocuses its international efforts in the Asia-Pacific region. With elections right around the corner for the U.S., political observers frequently described the significance of Xis visit as a landmark in China-U.S. relations oriented toward the future worldwide attention. Xi Jinping stressed that this year is a critical one to both China and the U.S. and that maintaining stable development of Sino-U.S. relations is crucial not only to coping with the complicated global and regional challenges, but to promoting the domestic agenda of the two countries.

NATO and Gulf nations work to deepen established security partnership

NATO permanent representatives met recently with senior officials from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), parties to the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), in the hopes of deepening partnerships in the Gulf region ahead of the NATO summit in May. The ICI, established in 2004, is a flexible bilateral initiative. Each members participation depends on its own interests and requirements. The same group met last year in Qatar, where NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Claudio Bisogniero proposed a multidimensional approach to security. He stressed that NATO and Gulf partners need to work more closely together to confront common threats like terrorism and piracy, cyber attacks, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, or the disruption of energy flows. This year, the attendees reviewed the year's progress and their commitment to peace, security, and stability in the region. They also discussed developing closer consultation mechanisms following the adoption of the new strategic concept. Issues in the Gulf region have been particularly heated in recent months as the U.S. and Iran went head to head over the right to patrol the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened to close the Strait, though U.S. battleships and others have continued to enjoy free access to the Gulf's international waters.

P5+1 partners cautiously optimistic about Iran's proposal

Iran responded to an EU diplomatic note from October by requesting the restart of the P-5+1 talks without preconditions and at the soonest date possible. In September 2011, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered to resume talks so long as Iran secures the undisputed right to 20% enrichment at its Tehran Research Reactor. This was a proposal that EU High Representative Catherine Ashton dismissed as insincere and she called on Iran to build upon the results of the Istanbul talks in 2010 and 2011. In responding to the new proposal, Ashton said that the P-5+1 partners are carefully considering what the proposal might means in terms of potential progress. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the proposal as the response the U.S. has been waiting for from Iran. Both officials stress caution though believe it is possible that Iran may truly be ready. Clinton reiterated that any conversation with Iran must start by addressing its nuclear program, which Iran appears to acknowledge and accept. The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has met with Iran twice in as many months to discuss the issues the international community has regarding its nuclear program. So far, no agreement has been made and permission to visit a military base has not been granted. The P-5+1 partners will now determine where the talks left off, where to go from there, and if momentum towards bringing Iran back into compliance with its international obligations can be sustained if talks are resumed.

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Poland calls for permanent EU command under CDSP

In response to the United States new military directive to become leaner and more efficient, Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski recently called for the European Union to draw up a new security strategy. Among Komorowskis concerns is the U.S.s decision to reduce the number of U.S. forces in Europe, leaving Europe and the EU more vulnerable to its remaining neighborhood instabilities. Komorowski hoped that NATO will continue to provide the backbone Europe needs to sustain and improve its level of security, though he believes the EU needs to take steps to realize its own separate strategy. His prior proposals include setting up a permanent operations command under the EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). Considering the tight national budgets brought on by the world wide financial crisis, the perceived redundancy of defense-focused EU forces, as opposed to peacekeeping forces, alongside established and formidable NATO forces brings the feasibility of such proposals into question. Indeed, the U.S. hopes that a collective NATO recalibration of forces will help the alliance to share the cost burden of transatlantic security. In the eyes of the U.S., a separate EU force would then become unnecessary; if the EU increases its commitment to NATO while employing the Smart Defense concept, the entire alliance will become stronger despite reduced forces worldwide. The U.S. and Komorowski share an objective: to move away from nationalist, unilateral military buildups that demand unnecessarily large financial commitments and that create uneven systemic strengths and weaknesses. However, Komorowskis plan anticipates a potential significant divergence in transatlantic and non-EU operational goals which could result in unresolvable disagreements over if and how NATO should participate in resolving world wide dilemmas. The EU would then benefit from having its own formidable defense force to use at its own will. However, the EU forces would still need to slowly build on its successes over time to avoid overextending itself.

South Sudan commits to oil revenue demands

South Sudan and Sudan recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) regarding numerous bilateral issues, including: respect for each others sovereignty and territorial integrity, non interference in internal affairs of the other state, rejection of use of violence, equality and mutual relations and peaceful coexistence. Questions remain, however, on the viability of the agreement; South Sudanese officials continue to accuse Sudanese officials with instigating cross border attacks in the oil rich region, and the oil revenue issue remains unresolved. South Sudan Gen. John Kong Nyuon, deputy minister for Defence and Veterans Affairs, urged both parties, the African Union (AU), and the international community commit to implementing the agreement. Both sides of the oil dispute have expressed a readiness to normalize operations once aa trade agreement is reached. However, the possibility of such an agreement seems distant. South Sudan recently decided to shut down an oil pipeline that runs through Sudan, causing a significant change in the dollar-Sudanese exchange rate. South Sudan committed to its decision by approving austerity measures to deal with the loss or revenue, reducing non-salary government spending by 50%. They continue to explore options for tripling non-oil revenue within six months, including introducing business, excise, and personal income taxes.

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Impatient international community waits for viable Syrian political solution

With a vote of 137 to 12, the UN General Assembly demanded that the Syria government halt the widespread and systematic violence immediately. The resolution also called for an inclusive Syrian-led political process. The UN reports that thousands are believed dead due to government suppression. Additionally, 70,000 people are internally displaced and 25,000 have fled the country. Edward Luck, the UN Secretary Generals Special Advisor on the Responsibility to Protect, warned that the demographics of the country are set to result in a dangerous sectarian split. While many in the international community welcomed the resolution, the UN cannot take firm action unless the Security Council issues a resolution to send a peacekeeping or military mission. The UNSC standstill on this issue is of little consequence to NATO defense planning. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that even if the UN authorizes the protection of civilians, NATO does not intend to intervene. He rejected the possibility of providing supplies and support to humanitarian passages, and he dismissed any comparison with Libya as faulty. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, supported Rasmussens conclusions by pointing to sophisticated air defense systems and chemical capabilities as being part of a very different military problem. Dempsey also rejected the possibility of supplying arms to the opposition since it is unclear who the opposition is actually composed of at this point. A recent U.S. report suggests that al-Qaeda may be involved in supporting the opposition. With the international military option more or less unavailable, the Arab League tried to filled the gap in actionable plans by calling for an AL-UN peacekeeping mission. However, Syria has rejected the option of allowing peacekeepers within the country. The next test of Syrias potential for a stable future will come on February 26th as Syrias eligible voters decide the fate of the new draft constitution at a national referendum.

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