Oil Market Report

Gasoline boosting refinery economics

3 APRIL 2012

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market

Brent crude is likely to face several headwinds over the next few months. Weak seasonal demand this spring together with fading hopes of a rapid global macroeconomic recovery may potentially interrupt the generally bullish momentum supporting the Brent crude rally so far this year. Nevertheless, we believe any short term weakness will merely mask a probable gradual tightening of the oil market as July 1 approaches when sanctions against Iran fully impact. Anecdotal evidence of widespread hoarding of oil by governments worldwide due to concerns regarding the situation in Iran is already offsetting some seasonal weakness. Iranian oil exports will be restricted in several ways, not only to Europe. In addition to farreaching US sanctions, European insurance companies will be prevented from insuring shipments of Iranian oil from July 1, a restriction likely to impact that countrys oil shipments worldwide with Europe a global centre for shipping insurance. In conclusion, while we could see oil prices weaken in coming weeks, they will subsequently increase due to the projected full impact of Iranian sanctions and growing seasonal oil demand worldwide. As supplies of Iranian oil decrease they must be replaced by increased supply from Saudi Arabia, oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), and drawdowns from commercial stocks. Politicians in the US, UK and France have already provided verbal confirmation of future SPR releases as Iranian oil supplies are restricted. Saudi Arabia is making various preparations. Drilling activity stands at a post-2007 high while plans have already been announced to restart production at its Dammam field, mothballed in 1980. It is also filling its private oil storage facilities worldwide and has contracted 11 VLCCs to transport oil or provide temporary storage. In addition, its leaders have sought to reassure markets by announcing it has spare capacity totalling 2.5 mb/d available if required. Despite question marks over the hoped for global recovery, and particularly the European outlook, the worldwide economy overall still appears set on a gradual upturn over the next two years. Ab initio, European crude oil stocks are around 15-year lows and global stocks below their 5-year average; US oil demand is cyclically low; while the situation will be inevitably compounded by the full impact of the upcoming Iranian oil embargo. In addition, we estimate OPEC reserve capacity at 2.5-3.0 mb/d, a very low level for the start of a cyclical upturn, albeit a weak one. In conclusion, we believe both current and prospective macroeconomic and oil market conditions are likely to remain highly supportive for oil prices over the next few years.

Crude oil price

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2
20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 o 9 kt-0 o 0 kt-1 o 1 kt-1 a r-0 p 9 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ja -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1

N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

6 5

global IEA global crude oil demand estimates

(mb/d)
9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 9 ja -0 n 9 ja -1 n 2

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Monthly global crude oil demand estimates

2011 (mb/d) 89.1 87.90 87.77 Revision (kb/d) +10 -30 -40 2012 (mb/d) 89.9 88.96 88.63 Revision (kb/d) +10 -290 -130

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

($/b) 2012 2013 Q1 120 Q2 115 Q3 115 Q4 120 Full Year 118 120

Q2-Q3 2012 pending revision for geopolitical risk premium

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
Crude oil price
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)
1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0

IC Bre t E n N EXW I YM T

Brent futures curve

(ICE, $/b)
15 2 13 2 11 2 19 1 17 1 15 1 13 1 11 1 19 0 17 0 15 0 13 0 11 0 9 9 9 7 9 5 9 3 ag 2 u -1 m j-1 a 2 1 -0 -0 2 1 6 1 -0 -0 2 2 7 1 -0 -2 2 3 7

WTI futures curve

(NYMEX, $/b)
19 0 18 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 m j-1 a 2 ag 2 u -1 1 -0 -0 2 1 6 1 -0 -0 2 2 7 1 -0 -2 2 3 7

n v-1 o 2

n v-1 o 3

n v-1 o 4

n v-1 o 5

n v-1 o 2

n v-1 o 3

n v-1 o 4

n v-1 o 5

fe -1 b 3

fe -1 b 4

fe -1 b 5

fe -1 b 6

ag 3 u -1

ag 4 u -1

ag 5 u -1

m j-1 a 3

m j-1 a 4

m j-1 a 5

m j-1 a 6

fe -1 b 3

fe -1 b 4

fe -1 b 5

fe -1 b 6

m j-1 a 3

m j-1 a 4

m j-1 a 5

Speculative positions WTI

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)
400 500 400 000 300 500 300 000 200 500 200 000 100 500 100 000 500 00 0 -5 0 0 00 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 Sh rt o Ln og Nt e

Benchmark spreads
(daily closing)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

W I m u Bre t T in s n Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

ag 3 u -1

ag 4 u -1

ag 5 u -1

m j-1 a 6

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
38 0 37 0 36 0 35 0 34 0 33 0 32 0 31 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d
c

OECD total industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
2800 2775 2750 2725 2700 2675 2650 2625 2600 2575 2550 2525 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2012 5 year av erage

5 year av erag e 201 1 201 2

OECD Europe industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
1020 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2012 5 year av erage

industry OECD North America industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
1400 1375 1350 1325 1300 1275 1250 1225 1200 1175 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2012 5 year av erage

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2012 5 year av erage

OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 40 O PEC 2 p d ctio -1 ro u n O PEC 1 p d ctio -1 ro u n 300 20

300 00

200 80

200 60

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2

200 40

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets

Global refining economics continued to improve in March due to the impact of the closure during the past year of Atlantic basin capacity totalling around 1.0 mb/d, and relatively low global output resulting from seasonal spring maintenance, especially in Asia which is set to last until May. However, the latter is likely to be at least partly offset by new capacity start-ups and earthquake damaged Japanese refineries coming back online. The latest improvement in refinery economics is mainly due to a sharp upturn in the gasoline crack. At the same time, cracks and prices for the rest of the barrel were relatively stable in March. While refinery shutdowns in the Atlantic basin may continue in 2012, they will probably be offset by additional new Asian capacity. Indeed, we expect the industry to continue to switch from older developed market refineries to new complex facilities in emerging markets, maintaining surplus global capacity. Light ends: Naphtha and gasoline prices have diverged significantly in recent weeks. Worldwide gasoline demand is strong while inventories are low or falling. Further support is provided by the switch to more expensive summer quality gasoline and the approaching driving season. The naphtha market is relatively well balanced with its gasoline counterpart pulling naphtha into the blending pool, while petrochemical demand is relatively healthy. However, the naphtha crack remains negative and European inventories are rising. The light end of the barrel looks likely to remain well supported in the short-term. Middle distillates: The unusually warm winter both in Europe and the US continues to affect middle distillate markets. Several tens of millions of barrels less than normal have been consumed in the Atlantic basin. Still, both cracks and prices are relatively firm and the overall inventory picture fairly normal for the season. While jet fuel is still limited by seasonal weakness, inventories remain slightly below the 5-year average which may provide additional support when demand returns. The diesel market is quiet but supported by solid non-European demand keeping arbitrage cargoes elsewhere. The gasoil market is weak in Europe though heating oil is even weaker in the US, maintaining open bearish arbitrage barrel flows to Europe. Heavy ends: The LS-HS differential continued to increase in March, driven both by weak HS and strong LS. The European HS market is being adversely affected by the lack of ships available to transport surplus barrels eastbound where demand is stronger, although it is supported by refineries seeking alternatives to expensive crude oil. The approaching change from HS to LS gasoil in US and Canadian waters (August 1), which is likely to switch ~200 kb/d in demand, is probably an increasingly important driver. In addition, Atlantic basin refinery shutdowns are hurting LS supply more than that of its HS counterpart.

light European light end benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 J t fu l e e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2
H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )

N p th ah a G so e a lin

60 0

middle European middle distillate benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5

European fuel oil benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
80 0 75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 45 7 40 5 45 2 40 0 35 7 30 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
gasoline US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 0 7 0 1 v. 21 02

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil

($/t, daily closing)
10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) Je fu l p m m (rig t) t e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

European product cracks

($/b, daily closing)
3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 0 fe b-10 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe b-11 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe b-12 m r-1 a 2 -2 5 N ph a a th J t fu l e e L w su h fu l o o lp ur e il D se 1 pp ie l 0 m G so e a lin G so 0 % a il .1 H h su h r fu o ig lp u el il

low high European low - h igh sulphur fuel oil differential

($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
3Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua

European naphtha stocks

(kt, monthly data)
10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoline stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

European jet fuel stocks

(kt, monthly data)
90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 j f m a m j j a

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e s o n d

European gasoil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 j f

European fuel oil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,5 5 1 ,3 5
9,5

US implied gasoline demand

(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9,7

1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,5 4 1 ,3 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,5 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d
8,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 9,3

9,1

5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02

8,9

5y av . g 20 11 20 12

8,7

US implied distillate demand

(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 5y av g. 201 1 201 2

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

($/t, daily closing)
20 15 10 5 0

4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2

-5 -10 -15 -20

n v-1 o 1

fe -1 b 1

ag 1 u -1

ju -1 n 1

d c-1 e 1

fe -1 b 2

-25

ja -1 n 2

ju 1 l-1

4,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

($/t, daily closing)
20 H eating oil/G asoil 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 J fuel/Kerosene et

n v-1 o 1

fe -1 b 1

fe -1 b 2

-25

m r-1 a 1

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

m r-1 a 2

o 1 kt-1

m j-1 a 1

se -1 p 1

ag 1 u -1

d c-1 e 1

a r-1 p 1

ja -1 n 1

ju -1 n 1

ja -1 n 2

ju 1 l-1

m r-1 a 1

m r-1 a 2

m j-1 a 1

se -1 p 1

ja -1 n 1

a r-1 p 1

o 1 kt-1

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets

US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

UK natural gas price

(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 10 40 30 20 50 $/M B (left axis) M tu G Bp/therm (right axis) 90 80 70 60

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Nordic power price

(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

Continental power price

(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6

21 02

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

21 02

a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

75

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index

(price index, weekly closing)
1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

JPM global manufacturing PMI

(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Regional industrial production growth

(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a

21 02

OECD composite leading indicators

(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 20 05 20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

10

21 02

m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O D EC U SA R fe n e re ce

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEB). Opinions contained in this report represent the banks present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents. SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Brse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

SEB Commodity Research

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

11

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