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April 6th, 2012

Imagine the surprise the West will display when they watch the Great Bear of Europe rumble from its winter quarters and stroll with ease through the Caucus, stopping now and then to do its level best to subjugate its inhabitants. The Wests leaders will scream, stomp their feet and pound their bully-pulpits, while the Security Council of the United Nations tries to pass another ineffective Resolution to end the violence and bloodshed spreading across Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and on the western shoreline of Turkmenistan. It isnt like they should not have expected the action, being warned as early as a year ago that if Israel and the USA decided to attack the nuclear facilities in Iran that the Bear would react in their manner of fashion, why not, is the word in the streets of downtown Moscow. In fact this might be sooner than most of us armchair generals can expect, whereas the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces are predicting that the joint military action (Israel and the US) will leap from the springboard during the Summer of 2012 that is this year incase youre wondering, their assumption that the United States will be involved is base on the Russian assessment that Israel really doesnt have sufficient assets to defeat Iranian defenses, thereby under political and economic pressure from the Israeli crowd in the United States, America will join the battle.

It was in December 2011, that under order from Moscow that all Russian military families were evacuated from Yerevan, Georgia to Russia, while the troops moved from there to Gyumri, Georgia some 75-miles to the northwest in order to be closer to the Turkish border. It is noted that the preparations for the upcoming conflict in Iran began over two-years ago by the Russian military. After the short Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, the break-away provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia were occupied by Russian military in retaliation Tbilisi stopped Military transit to the Russian troops in landlocked Armenia, leaving only a air-corridor, while fuel and other essentials flow across the IranArmenia border via a rail-link. Moscow believes that this border will be closed during the upcoming war. In effect closing the rail-link between Yeraskh, Armenia and Jolfa, Iran with this in mind the former Lt General Yury Netkachev (former deputy Commander in Transcaucasis) says that it very possible that there will be a military action that breaches the Georgian transport blockade with the purpose of re-establishing a corridor between Armenia and the capital of Georgia Tbilisi. Military exercises of a large scale (Kavkaz-2012) are planned for September, but it is noted that preparations and the deployment of necessary assets for a large invasion had began some months ago. Where new command and control equipment has already been moved into the area, along with new fighter planes and attack helicopters and their support equipment keep in mind that it was the









deployment of forces to successfully invade Georgia. In September -2011 the Russian military announced that sniper units had been created in all Russian army brigades (3,500 to 6,000 fighters not including support personnel). It is reported the 1,300 newly trained snipers have been deployed in Abkhazia, Ossetia, Chechnya and Volgograd, joining a new force re-armed with new T-90A and T-72BM tanks and new armored vehicles.

President Dmitry Medvedev made note that the units in the Caucus had received over 7,000 pieces of heavy weapons, reaching a point of being 70% re-armed in 2011, while he noted that the re-arming of the rest of Russias military was lagging behind at 16%.

It was last year that the newly appointed Commander of the 58th Army, the army that spearheaded the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, Major General Andrei Gurulev, said, The army front-line force that keeps the peace in the region has been rearmed more than 60%. In addition after an inspection of the forces in the region the Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that new Special Forces units will be deployed in Stavropol (125 miles north of the Abkhazia region in Georgia) and Kislovodsk (75

miles north of the Abkhazia region) to further strengthen the security of the region. The Russian military strongly believes that if the US goes to war with Iran, that there is a very good chance that the US will deploy forces in friendly Georgia and warships in the Caspian with the assistance and backing of Azerbaijan, with this in mind the Russians have deployed the land-mobile guided anti-ship missiles (BAL-E -75 mile range)) along the Caspian shore in and around Dagestan.

In addition to the new BAL-E defenses the Army has added twenty new Tornad-G MRLS launchers, replacing their aging Grad MRLS systems, whereas the 122-mm (4.8 inch) Tornado-G is touted as being 3X more effective than the Grad, along with its increased accuracy, and rapid fire it range is 62 miles.

It was Lt General Vladimir Shamanov who informed the world that the Russian troops in Armenia would be reinforced by paratroopers, supported by attack and transport helicopters where the VDV units with the helicopters will be transferred into Abkhazia and South Ossetian, this well orchestrated build

up of the Russian military is more than just an exercise to go after the rebels in Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria, where the Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council Giga Bokeria stated on a program on radio Ekho Moskvi that the ever present threat of war with Russia is becoming more real every hour. In Tbilisi, this dark cloud forming on the horizon, is somewhat connected to the fall elections in October and possible disturbances that may accompany them. Albeit according to the polls it appears that President Mikheil Saakashvili will have another landslide victory, against the opposition led by Russian-based billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili as his support base is shrinking. Although the Kremlin would like to see Bidzina win, it is apparent that the military build-up is to counter any attack on Iran and any military deployment of US bases in Transcaucasis that would link with troops in Armenia, thereby solidifying a strong position along the South Caucasus energy corridor that would secure the fossil fuel situation with Azeri, Turkmen and other Caspian natural gas and oil that may reach the European markets. The Russian feel that with one swift military strike they would ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states there were formerly under their control, thereby rubbing in the faces the Soviet Unions crash after the end of the Cold War, this happening while the USA was preoccupied with the goingson in Iran. The primary goal of the Kremlin is to crush the remnants of the pro-democracy movements and to remove the fair election process now enjoyed in the region. So while Israel and the USA duke it out with Iran, the Russian Bear is preparing to secure the region north of Iran once again.