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IndianapolisCFASocietyInvestmentForumNotes DustinHunter,SunRiftCapitalPartners(www.sunriftcp.

com)
(Thesenotesaretothebestofmyrecollectionandtrustyinkpen.Discrepanciesareduetomyerrorin understanding&transcribing.)

Part2HowardMarksTheMostImportantThingsintheCurrentmarketEnvironment Environment: (3)thingsinfluenceassetprices:Fundamentals,Psychology,Technicals Since2009: o Fundamentalsare'Iffy' o Psychologyhasrebounded o Technicalscenteredoncashinflowsvs.forcedselling Heavymarketinfluenceduetointerestratesnearzero o Fixedincomestrong o Equitieslackluster o Europe/EmergingMarketscorrected MacroQuestions: o Developedworld&competition o Jobcreation o Confidenceandbehaviorofconsumers o Austerityimpact o Deleveringvs.previoushyperdebt o Paceofrecovery o Inflationvs.deflationHehadacommentalongthelinesof"Notboth...Ifyoure comingtomefortheanswer,thatsayssomethingabouthowdesperateyouare." (mynoteThere'sironyintheresomewhere...) o Europeoutlookmurky&scary o Politicalinvolvementineconomyquestionableleadership o Emergingworldrelianceofdevelopedworld o Hard/softlandinginChina Nobodypaystheirdebts,theycontinuallyrefinance.Makesthatpointevenfor'AAA'ratings. Theyrelyonthecapitalmarkets. Seesadrawnout,weakerrecovery'Saucer'vs.Vshaped PrepareforTomorrow: Peopledealwiththefuturebyassumingthatit'slikethepast Becarefulnottoblindlyextrapolate Considerthatthepastoutcomewasoneofmultiplepossibilities(alternatehistories) 19822007 POSSIBLE

19822007 ACTUAL

Riskmeansmore thingscanhappen thanwillhappen. quotedElroyDimson

8299wasaboutasgoodasitgets Analogyofabucketwhereyoucontinuetodrawoutoneballatatime. o Themoretimesinarowthatawhiteballispulledout,themorefutureexpectations changeandexpectthattrendtocontinue. o Mightbeprudenttoconsiderthattherearealotofblackballsleftinthebucketthat haveyettobepulledout. (Thiswasapowerfulpoint,andIvesinceaddedittomymentalmodel) 2011RANGEOF POSSIBILITIES Longlefttailamong possibilities

Possiblefuturesmaybelessfavorablethanpastpossibilities Cyclicaloutlookpositive,butworrisomeseculartrends Analogyofapendulum o InvestorscanbeonOffense,Defense,orintheMiddle o Positsthatonebemoderate,andventuretowardsoffenseordefenseinafashion contrariantotheactivityofothers

StructuringPortfolios Shouldoneprepareforprosperity?Notifprosperitylookslikethe90s WorrymoreLosingmoneyormissedopportunity?Referencespendulumanalogyaboveand swingcountertothecrowd Whatisthekey? o Moneyandnervethatsall o Discernment,discipline,riskcontrol,selectivity MarksCurrentStanceMoveforwardwithcaution Priceisveryimportantnearlyanythingcanbegoodattherightprice Lowexpectations TooCautious? SafetyinInvestingcomesfrommarginforerror Ensuringamarginforerrorisincompatiblewithmaximization Girdingforthebadismoreessentialthanpreparingforthegood WorrymoreLosingmoneyormissedopportunity

Q&A Q. Thoughtsoncurrencies Currentmarketrelativelyefficient. Informationadvantagenotlikely. Talkedaboutknowitallsbutforthenonknowitallsdiversify ThoughtsonGDP A. HistoricallyGDP3%4%. Oaktreehasnonumbersandarenoteconomists 3%morelikely Doesnotliketheideaofahistoricalriskpremium A.

Q.

Q.

Chinaideas/impacttoportfoliomanagement A. Notreallyanimpact Discussedoverbuiltbubbleavoid Controlofthatandhowitisdealtwithisaquestion Offensevs.Defense A. RecalledcommitteeatU.ofPennsylvania Previousmemo:DaretobeGreat Requiresnoninstitutionalbehaviorfromaninstitution Avoidgroupthink Askmemberstoacknowledgetheirtendency,sayona110scaleThentrytositthat asidewhenconsideringbestdirection

Q.

(InPart3,wewillroundupnotesfromBobDoll'spresentation)