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An Input-Output Analysis
ASEAN Economic Bulletin, December 2000
Takahiro Akita*
International University of Japan
and
Agus Hermawan
Ministry of Finance, Indonesia
May 2000
Abstract
This paper analyzes structural changes and the sources of industrial growth in Indonesia
between 1985 and 1995 by using the 1985, 90, and 95 input-output tables. It also
investigates the changes in the pattern of industrial growth over the 25-year period from
1971-95. In the past three decades, Indonesia appears to have achieved a successful
transition from an inward-looking, government-led industrialization financed by oil exports
to an outward-looking, market-oriented industrialization based on non-oil exports, in which
the turning period was during the 1980-85 period. During 1985-95, the expansion of
household consumption remained the main source of output growth as it accounted for
about one-half of total output growth; in contrast, the contribution of government
consumption was reduced to a negligible level, signifying the declining role of the
government sector in output growth. The expansion of exports was also a key factor in
output growth in addition to the rise in export-oriented investments. It is noteworthy that
export expansion was made, to a large extent, by non-oil exports, rather than oil exports.
We are grateful to the International University of Japan and the Ministry of Education (under grant No.
12630073) for their financial support. We would also like to thank anonymous referees for their helpful
comments.
Sector
1 Agriculture
2 Mining
3 Oil Refinery & LNG
4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco
5 Textile/Wearing Apparel
6 Wood Products
7 Paper/Printing/Publishing
8 Chemical Products
9 Non-Metallic Mineral Products
10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals
11 Machinery/Metal Products
12 Other Manufacturing
Total Manufacturing
13 Elec./Gas/Water
14 Construction
15 Trade
16 Services
Total
Value Added
1985 1990 1995
22.5
17.6
14.9
23.3
14.0
11.6
Exports
1985 1990 1995
5.8
2.2
1.4
67.7 27.3 20.9
Imports
1985 1990 1995
5.0
9.4
1.5
5.8
2.7
4.4
0.4
3.9
1.2
1.0
0.4
1.5
0.6
0.7
1.9
0.1
4.6
5.4
1.9
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.4
0.7
2.5
0.1
3.0
6.7
2.4
1.2
0.9
2.3
0.3
0.7
3.0
0.2
3.3
0.6
2.1
3.8
0.1
3.6
0.1
2.3
0.7
0.0
19.7
5.1
8.7
8.7
0.6
4.9
0.6
2.1
1.6
0.3
11.9
4.5
11.2
7.4
1.9
6.4
0.5
1.9
6.3
0.8
3.1
1.4
1.0
0.0
1.8
14.6
1.4
5.3
40.1
0.2
3.5
2.5
5.1
0.1
1.6
13.9
1.8
5.0
44.2
0.4
4.6
3.8
4.5
0.1
1.6
12.6
1.0
5.2
40.4
0.4
11.7
0.5
6.0
11.2
24.8
19.4
0.5
6.8
11.5
30.1
20.7
0.4
8.9
16.4
27.2
16.6
0.0
0.0
4.0
5.9
52.3
0.0
0.0
7.7
10.6
52.9
0.0
0.0
12.5
12.4
68.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.7
78.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.7
74.1
0.0
0.0
2.4
16.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
Export Ratio
Import Ratio
1985
1990
1995
1985
1990
1995
1 Agriculture
2 Mining
5.4
67.0
2.8
46.3
1.8
38.7
3.0
14.8
1.7
14.3
3.3
11.6
12.9
47.5
41.6
7.7
12.7
21.1
4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco
1.0
7.3
5.0
1.4
3.4
4.2
5 Textile/Wearing Apparel
16.6
36.9
36.2
5.4
24.0
18.1
6 Wood Products
38.4
58.0
46.1
0.3
1.0
1.2
2.3
7.7
18.3
25.5
18.1
15.9
19.9
23.1
18.7
38.4
43.7
30.6
1.5
12.3
8.1
13.5
29.6
15.1
10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals
35.6
24.0
20.4
43.7
40.9
40.3
11 Machinery/Metal Products
3.2
5.6
17.2
55.2
60.5
56.5
12 Other Manufacturing
5.1
40.2
38.2
14.4
42.9
22.1
Total Manufacturing
10.0
22.6
20.0
22.1
30.4
25.5
13 Elec./Gas/Water
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14 Construction
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15 Trade
8.3
14.4
12.4
0.0
0.0
2.6
16 Services
4.3
6.2
7.1
7.2
7.8
9.0
Total
13.5
14.5
13.0
10.1
14.4
12.8
5.7
9.7
9.8
10.0
14.5
12.6
7 Paper/Printing/Publishing
8 Chemical Products
IS
EE
Total G. Rate
1 Agriculture
2 Mining
-0.1
-0.4
-5.7
-6.5
5.8
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.7
1.7
-0.1
2.6
2.1
-4.3
2.7
-5.8
1.5
-3.8
-0.6
-0.6
1.4
0.1
1.3
0.5
8.6
10.7
17.7
4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco
-0.6
1.0
8.6
0.1
0.1
-0.1
2.5
11.6
9.5
5 Textile/Wearing Apparel
-1.6
0.5
2.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
5.0
6.6
20.8
6 Wood Products
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.8
-0.2
3.0
3.7
16.7
7 Paper/Printing/Publishing
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
2.2
24.4
8 Chemical Products
-0.7
-0.1
2.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
2.0
3.9
10.8
-0.3
-0.5
0.2
0.0
0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.3
2.7
10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.1
0.3
1.9
13.8
11 Machinery/Metal Products
-0.9
0.3
1.4
0.1
4.5
0.1
0.8
6.2
13.9
12 Other Manufacturing
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
5.3
13 Elec./Gas/Water
-0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.3
9.6
0.0
-0.2
0.5
0.1
12.1
0.0
0.2
12.6
9.7
15 Trade
-0.2
-1.8
3.3
0.2
4.0
-0.1
3.2
8.8
9.3
16 Services
-0.7
2.8
19.5
3.1
3.5
0.1
4.8
33.1
11.6
Total
-6.0
-9.8
48.2
4.3
31.2
3.0
29.2
100.0
8.2
-5.2
-2.8
48.0
4.3
29.6
-0.1
26.2
100.0
9.5
14 Construction
IS
-0.4
0.1
EE
0.7
1.0
Total G. Rate
7.5
7.2
6.6
4.5
0.7
0.3
14.3
13.5
14.5
4.7
10.0
1.9
16.3
1.7
19.4
6.2
14.1
0.9
10.1
1.1
14.5
5.6
30.4
0.5
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.1
-0.7
1.3
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
0.9
10.8
2.0
0.5
0.6
2.6
0.1
0.1
1.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
1.3
0.0
-0.1
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.6
2.3
0.6
0.7
1.7
0.1
0.3
2.0
0.2
13
14
15
16
Elec./Gas/Water
Construction
Trade
Services
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
1.2
3.0
0.7
0.4
15.0
8.9
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
2.1
0.1
11.8
1.4
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
2.9
3.1
0.5
12.9
20.1
18.5
5.8
13.1
23.3
8.9
1.3
1.7
4.6
4.6
52.4
53.4
1.5
1.7
22.0
20.7
1.9
1.7
16.4
16.2
100.0
100.0
11.6
12.8
Total
Total (exclude Mining/Oil Refinery)
Figure 1
Agriculture
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Industrial Materials
Food Products
Textile Products
1971-75
1975-80
1985-90
1990-95
1980-85
Figure 2
IS
70%
50%
EE
IO
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
DD1
DD4
DD3
DD2
1971-75
1975-80
1985-90
1990-95
1980-85