Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 7

The Sources of Industrial Growth in Indonesia, 1985-1995:

An Input-Output Analysis
ASEAN Economic Bulletin, December 2000

Takahiro Akita*
International University of Japan
and
Agus Hermawan
Ministry of Finance, Indonesia

May 2000

Abstract
This paper analyzes structural changes and the sources of industrial growth in Indonesia
between 1985 and 1995 by using the 1985, 90, and 95 input-output tables. It also
investigates the changes in the pattern of industrial growth over the 25-year period from
1971-95. In the past three decades, Indonesia appears to have achieved a successful
transition from an inward-looking, government-led industrialization financed by oil exports
to an outward-looking, market-oriented industrialization based on non-oil exports, in which
the turning period was during the 1980-85 period. During 1985-95, the expansion of
household consumption remained the main source of output growth as it accounted for
about one-half of total output growth; in contrast, the contribution of government
consumption was reduced to a negligible level, signifying the declining role of the
government sector in output growth. The expansion of exports was also a key factor in
output growth in addition to the rise in export-oriented investments. It is noteworthy that
export expansion was made, to a large extent, by non-oil exports, rather than oil exports.

We are grateful to the International University of Japan and the Ministry of Education (under grant No.
12630073) for their financial support. We would also like to thank anonymous referees for their helpful
comments.

Table 2. Industrial Structure of Value Added, Imports, and Exports


at 1983 Constant Prices
in %

Sector

1 Agriculture
2 Mining
3 Oil Refinery & LNG
4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco
5 Textile/Wearing Apparel
6 Wood Products
7 Paper/Printing/Publishing
8 Chemical Products
9 Non-Metallic Mineral Products
10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals
11 Machinery/Metal Products
12 Other Manufacturing
Total Manufacturing
13 Elec./Gas/Water
14 Construction
15 Trade
16 Services
Total

Value Added
1985 1990 1995
22.5
17.6
14.9
23.3
14.0
11.6

Exports
1985 1990 1995
5.8
2.2
1.4
67.7 27.3 20.9

Imports
1985 1990 1995
5.0
9.4

1.5
5.8

2.7
4.4

0.4
3.9
1.2
1.0
0.4
1.5
0.6
0.7
1.9
0.1

4.6
5.4
1.9
1.7
0.6
1.5
0.4
0.7
2.5
0.1

3.0
6.7
2.4
1.2
0.9
2.3
0.3
0.7
3.0
0.2

3.3
0.6
2.1
3.8
0.1
3.6
0.1
2.3
0.7
0.0

19.7
5.1
8.7
8.7
0.6
4.9
0.6
2.1
1.6
0.3

11.9
4.5
11.2
7.4
1.9
6.4
0.5
1.9
6.3
0.8

3.1
1.4
1.0
0.0
1.8
14.6
1.4
5.3
40.1
0.2

3.5
2.5
5.1
0.1
1.6
13.9
1.8
5.0
44.2
0.4

4.6
3.8
4.5
0.1
1.6
12.6
1.0
5.2
40.4
0.4

11.7
0.5
6.0
11.2
24.8

19.4
0.5
6.8
11.5
30.1

20.7
0.4
8.9
16.4
27.2

16.6
0.0
0.0
4.0
5.9

52.3
0.0
0.0
7.7
10.6

52.9
0.0
0.0
12.5
12.4

68.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.7

78.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.7

74.1
0.0
0.0
2.4
16.4

100.0

100.0

100.0

Source: Central Bureau of Statistic (1989, 1995, and 1998).

100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0

Table 3. Export Ratio and Import Ratio


in %
Sector

Export Ratio

Import Ratio

1985

1990

1995

1985

1990

1995

1 Agriculture
2 Mining

5.4
67.0

2.8
46.3

1.8
38.7

3.0
14.8

1.7
14.3

3.3
11.6

3 Oil Refinery & LNG

12.9

47.5

41.6

7.7

12.7

21.1

4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco

1.0

7.3

5.0

1.4

3.4

4.2

5 Textile/Wearing Apparel

16.6

36.9

36.2

5.4

24.0

18.1

6 Wood Products

38.4

58.0

46.1

0.3

1.0

1.2

2.3

7.7

18.3

25.5

18.1

15.9

19.9

23.1

18.7

38.4

43.7

30.6

9 Non-Metallic Mineral Products

1.5

12.3

8.1

13.5

29.6

15.1

10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals

35.6

24.0

20.4

43.7

40.9

40.3

11 Machinery/Metal Products

3.2

5.6

17.2

55.2

60.5

56.5

12 Other Manufacturing

5.1

40.2

38.2

14.4

42.9

22.1

Total Manufacturing

10.0

22.6

20.0

22.1

30.4

25.5

13 Elec./Gas/Water

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

14 Construction

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

15 Trade

8.3

14.4

12.4

0.0

0.0

2.6

16 Services

4.3

6.2

7.1

7.2

7.8

9.0

Total

13.5

14.5

13.0

10.1

14.4

12.8

5.7

9.7

9.8

10.0

14.5

12.6

7 Paper/Printing/Publishing
8 Chemical Products

Total (exclude Mining/Oil Refinery)

Source: As for Table 2.

Table 4. Sources of Output Growth (as percentage of total output growth) in


1985-90
in %
Sector

IS

IO DD1 DD2 DD3 DD4

EE

Total G. Rate

1 Agriculture
2 Mining

-0.1
-0.4

-5.7
-6.5

5.8
1.1

0.2
0.1

0.7
1.7

-0.1
2.6

2.1
-4.3

2.7
-5.8

1.5
-3.8

3 Oil Refinery & LNG

-0.6

-0.6

1.4

0.1

1.3

0.5

8.6

10.7

17.7

4 Food/Beverages/Tobacco

-0.6

1.0

8.6

0.1

0.1

-0.1

2.5

11.6

9.5

5 Textile/Wearing Apparel

-1.6

0.5

2.6

0.0

0.1

0.0

5.0

6.6

20.8

6 Wood Products

0.0

0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.8

-0.2

3.0

3.7

16.7

7 Paper/Printing/Publishing

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.4

2.2

24.4

8 Chemical Products

-0.7

-0.1

2.1

0.1

0.4

0.1

2.0

3.9

10.8

9 Non-Metallic Mineral Products

-0.3

-0.5

0.2

0.0

0.7

-0.1

0.3

0.3

2.7

10 Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals

0.1

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.1

0.3

1.9

13.8

11 Machinery/Metal Products

-0.9

0.3

1.4

0.1

4.5

0.1

0.8

6.2

13.9

12 Other Manufacturing

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

5.3

13 Elec./Gas/Water

-0.1

-0.1

0.9

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.3

1.3

9.6

0.0

-0.2

0.5

0.1

12.1

0.0

0.2

12.6

9.7

15 Trade

-0.2

-1.8

3.3

0.2

4.0

-0.1

3.2

8.8

9.3

16 Services

-0.7

2.8

19.5

3.1

3.5

0.1

4.8

33.1

11.6

Total

-6.0

-9.8

48.2

4.3

31.2

3.0

29.2

100.0

8.2

Total (exclude Mining/Oil Refinery)

-5.2

-2.8

48.0

4.3

29.6

-0.1

26.2

100.0

9.5

14 Construction

Note: G. Rate is the average annual growth rate of sectoral output

Table 5. Sources of Output Growth (as percentage of total output growth) in


1990-1995
in %
Sector
1 Agriculture
2 Mining

IS
-0.4
0.1

IO DD1 DD2 DD3 DD4


-1.3
7.1
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.7
0.0
1.5
0.4

EE
0.7
1.0

Total G. Rate
7.5
7.2
6.6
4.5
0.7
0.3
14.3
13.5
14.5
4.7
10.0
1.9
16.3
1.7
19.4
6.2
14.1
0.9
10.1
1.1
14.5
5.6
30.4
0.5

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Oil Refinery & LNG


Food/Beverages/Tobacco
Textile/Wearing Apparel
Wood Products
Paper/Printing/Publishing
Chemical Products
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Iron/Steel/Non-Ferrous Metals
Machinery/Metal Products
Other Manufacturing

-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.1

-0.7
1.3
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.0

0.9
10.8
2.0
0.5
0.6
2.6
0.1
0.1
1.8
0.2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.8
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
1.3
0.0

-0.1
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.6
2.3
0.6
0.7
1.7
0.1
0.3
2.0
0.2

13
14
15
16

Elec./Gas/Water
Construction
Trade
Services

0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.5

-0.4
0.6
1.2
3.0

0.7
0.4
15.0
8.9

-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
2.1

0.1
11.8
1.4
1.8

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1

0.2
0.1
2.9
3.1

0.5
12.9
20.1
18.5

5.8
13.1
23.3
8.9

1.3
1.7

4.6
4.6

52.4
53.4

1.5
1.7

22.0
20.7

1.9
1.7

16.4
16.2

100.0
100.0

11.6
12.8

Total
Total (exclude Mining/Oil Refinery)

Note: G. Rate is the average annual growth rate of sectoral output

Figure 1

Agriculture
25%
20%
15%

Machinery and Metal Products

Mining & Oil Refinery

10%
5%
0%
-5%

Industrial Materials

Food Products

Wood Products & Printing

Textile Products

1971-75

1975-80

1985-90

1990-95

1980-85

Figure 2

IS
70%

50%

EE

IO

30%

10%

-10%

-30%

DD1

DD4

DD3

DD2

1971-75

1975-80

1985-90

1990-95

1980-85

Вам также может понравиться