How does Global Warming stack up against Annual Global Temperature?

So exactly how does Global Warming stack up against Annual Global Temperature? Isnt this one of the first questions that should be asked when considering global temperatures? It seems to be one of those facts that get forgotten, but thankfully a few good scientists still draw attention to it. So where are the datasets to be found? It is certainly not as easily found as anomaly data but it is available via this link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html Scroll to near the bottom of the page and there is a table, Global Mean Monthly Surface Temperature Estimates for the Base Period 1901 to 2000. There are three datasets there and they are plotted out below:

Clearly, there is a large annual swing in temperature over the course of the year. The sea surface temperature changes by about 0.6C over the course of the year. The global combined temperature varies by around 3.8C. However, global land temperatures vary by a massive 11.5C annually. It is interesting to note that the annual change in sea surface temperature is about the same as the total global warming from 1901 to 2000. Now let us compare the mean global temperatures for estimates of the year 1901 and 2000 with the mean over the period in absolute C rather than the more usual temperature anomalies. To keep things

simple it has been assumed that the warming over this period was linear such that 1901 was coldest and 2000 the warmest. This is shown in the graph below:

Suddenly the amount of global warming looks far less significant and indeed represents less than one fifth of the annual variation in global temperature. Alternatively, global warming over the period amounts to approximately one quarter of one percent in absolute terms.

But, what does it look like from the point of view of radiative physics? After all, thermal radiation is what global warming is all about. In the following plot, the above is replicated and put side-by-side with the same data on the Kelvin scale. The Kelvin scale is a prerequisite for studying thermal radiation.

This plot shows the mean annual cycle of global temperature. The bounds of Global warming are shown by curves for temperatures in 1901 to 2000.

Somehow, the global warming doesnt seem so dramatic when placed into the correct context.

Just for completeness, the average absolute global temperature (1901 to 2000) was 13.9C or 287K.

Summary of annual global temperature ranges: Sea Surface = 0.6C Combined = 3.8C Land = 11.5C

Jonathan Drake 27 November 2009 Questioning Climate

Revisions: 1) Correction to title of first graph. (16/12/2009) 2) Addition of Kelvin scale comparison. (9/12/2013)