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  • Case Sensitivity Analysis Factors in Traffic Accidents

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    Manuel Garcia Lacayo
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    Sensitivity analysis is a method for extracting the cause-and-effect relationships among inputs and outputs of a trained neural network. Over 6 million traffic accidents claim more than 41,000 lives each year in the u.s. Factors that potentially increase the risk of injury severity are: o Demographic: age, gender o Behavioral: usage of drugs or alcohol while driving o Environmental: roadway conditions, surface conditions, weather, direction of the impact, occurrence of a rollover.

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    Sensitivity analysis is a method for extracting the cause-and-effect relationships among inputs and outputs of a trained neural network. Over 6 million traffic accidents claim more than 41,000 lives each year in the u.s. Factors that potentially increase the risk of injury severity are: o Demographic: age, gender o Behavioral: usage of drugs or alcohol while driving o Environmental: roadway conditions, surface conditions, weather, direction of the impact, occurrence of a rollover.

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    46 просмотров2 страницы

    Case Sensitivity Analysis Factors in Traffic Accidents

    Загружено:

    Manuel Garcia Lacayo
    Sensitivity analysis is a method for extracting the cause-and-effect relationships among inputs and outputs of a trained neural network. Over 6 million traffic accidents claim more than 41,000 lives each year in the u.s. Factors that potentially increase the risk of injury severity are: o Demographic: age, gender o Behavioral: usage of drugs or alcohol while driving o Environmental: roadway conditions, surface conditions, weather, direction of the impact, occurrence of a rollover.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Скачайте в формате PDF, TXT или читайте онлайн в Scribd
    Отметить как неприемлемый контент
    из 2

    ChapterNotes: NeuralNetwork=brainmetaphorforinformationprocessing Ability o tolearnfromthedata o nonparametricnature(norigidassumptions) o abilitytogeneralize Neuralcomputing=patterrecognitionmethodologyformachinelearning ArtificialNeuralNetwork=resultingmodelfromneuralcomputing NNcomputingkeycomponentofanydataminingtoolkit ANNpossesthesedesirabletraits o Learn o Selforganize o Supporttolerance Blackboxtestingistheprimaryapproachforverifyingthatinputsproducetheappropriate outputs

    ts Sensitivityanalysisisfrontrunnerofthetechniquesproposedforsheddinglightintothe blackboxcharacterizationoftrainedneuralnetworks Sensitivityanalysisisamethodforextractingthecauseandeffectrelationshipsamong inputsandoutputsofatrainedNNmodel

    CaseNotes: AccordingtoNationalHighwayTrafficSafety(NHTSA)over6milliontrafficaccidentsclaim morethan41,000liveseachyearinUS Trafficsafetyresearchershaveanspecialinterestincausesofaccidentandrelatedinjury severity Researchgoalisnotonlyreducingthenumberofaccidentsbutalsotheseverityofinjury Toaccomplishthereducingofseverityininjuryistoidentifythemostprofoundfactors thataffectit Understandingthecircumstancesunderwhichthedriversandpassengersaremorelikely tobeseverelyinjured(orkilled)inacaraccidentcanhelptoimprovetheoveralldriving safetysituation Factorsthatpotentiallyincreasetheriskofinjuryseverityare: o Demographic:age,gender o Behavioral:seatbeltusage,usageofdrugsoralcoholwhiledriving o Environmental:roadwayconditions,surfaceconditions,weather,lightconditions, directionoftheimpact,vehicleorientationinthecrash,occurrenceofarollover o Vehicletechnicalaspects:vehicle`sage,bodytype Exploratorydataminingstudytoidentifywhichfactorsbecameincreasinglymore important

    usedalargedatasample:30,358policereportedaccidentrecordsobtainedfrom thegeneralestimatesofNHTSA o includedaccidentsgeographicallyrepresentativesampleofmultiplevehicle collisionaccidents,singlevehiclefixedobjectcollisionandsinglevehicle noncolision(rollover)crashes Manypreviousstudies o hadprimarilyusedregressiontypegeneralizedlinearmodels o functionrelationshipbetweeninjuryseverityandcrashedrelatedfactorsare assumedtobelinear ArtificialNeuralNetwork(ANN)areknowntobesuperiorincapturinghighlynonlinear complexrelationshipsbetweenthepredictorvariables(crashfactors)andthetarget variable(severityleveloftheinjuries),thereforetheydecidedtousedaseriesofANN modelstoestimatethesignificanceofthecrashfactoronthelevelofinjuryseverity sustainedbythedriver Frommethodologicalstandpoint,theyfollowedatwostepprocess o First:developaseriesofpredictionmodels(oneforeachseverityinjurylevel)to capturetheindepthrelationshipsbetweenthecrashrelatedfactorsanda specificlevelofinjuryseverity o Second:conductedasensitivityanalysisonthetrainedneuralmodeltoidentify theprioritizedimportanceofcrashrelatedfactorsastheyrelatetodifferentinjury severitylevels Intheformulationofthestudythefiveclasspredictionproblemwasdecomposedintoa numberofbinaryclassificationmodelsinordertoobtaingranularityofinformation neededtoidentifythetruecrashrelatedfactorsanddifferentlevelsofinjuryseverity Resultsrevealed: o Considerabledifferencesamongthemodelsbuiltfordifferentinjuryseverity levels.Thisimpliesthatthemostinfluentialfactorsinpredictionmodelshighly dependonthelevelofinjuryseverity o Theseatbeltusagewasthemostimportantdeterminantvariableforpredicting higherlevelsofinjuryseveritybutitwasoneoftheleastsignificantpredictorsfor lowerlevelsofinjuryseverity o DriversGenderwasamongthesignificantpredictorsforlowerlevelsofinjury severitybutitwasnotamongthesignificantfactorsforhigherlevelsofinjury severity o Agebecomesanincreasinglymoresignificantfactorasthelevelofinjuryseverity increases o

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