Hurricane Katrina: An Environmental Perspective Author(s): Ewen McCallum and Julian Heming Reviewed work(s): Source: Philosophical Transactions:

Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 364, No. 1845, Extreme Natural Hazards (Aug. 15, 2006), pp. 2099-2115 Published by: The Royal Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25190316 . Accessed: 07/04/2012 20:48
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PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS -OF? THE ROYAL/A

Phil

SOCIETY A

JL

Trans. R. Soc. A (2006) 364, 2099-2115 doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1815 Published online 23 June 2006

Hurricane environmental
By Met Ewen McCallum* Road,

Katrina:

an

perspective
and Exeter, Julian Devon Heming EXI 3PB, UK

Office,

FitzRoy

On 29 August 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast of the USA to become one of the worst natural disasters in the country's history. The forecasts and official warnings of the event issued by the US National Hurricane Center up to 60 h ahead were excellent and largely based on an 'ensemble' of model and statistical as one of the best is highlighted guidance. The Met Office Global Model
performers for Hurricane Katrina.

The climate
impact

active
is

season has fuelled the debate on the 2005 Atlantic hurricane have suggested change on tropical cyclones. Some recent publications
already apparent, while others are more cautious. Inconsistencies

impact of that this

remain

and observational studies. among many of the theoretical, modelling the excellent warnings, there was a tragic loss of life as a result of Hurricane Despite Katrina which has led to political questions concerning complex socio-economic issues, the state of flood defences and how to coordinate the reaction to and mitigate the impact
of such monumental natural Keywords: hazards. Hurricane Katrina; Met Office; forecast

1. Hurricane 29 August Katrina struck

Introduction

the Gulf Coast of the USA around dawn (local time) on to coastal a combination havoc communities 2005, wreaking through of wind, rain and storm torrential It is probably the most surge. expensive natural in US history disaster and one of its deadliest was since 1928. Katrina followed during this season by Category 5 hurricanes, Rita and Wilma. However, their significance in what was a record breaking season in the hurricane despite Atlantic this paper will on the former well focus almost basin, exclusively documented hurricane. to hurricanes on two factors: event incidence and Vulnerability depends societal on the physical This paper will concentrate events and will exposure. the environmental of this explore aspects as a tropical depression from its formation storm was handled a historical storm within perspective, near the Bahamas on 23 August until

it hit the Gulf Coast of the USA on 29 August.

with
* Author

It will also highlight how the

prediction Comparisons (NWP) will models, be made

particular

numerical weather by the various focus on the Met Office Global Model.
(ewen.mccallum@metoffice.gov.uk). to a Discussion Meeting Issue 'Extreme

for correspondence of 20

One

contribution

natural

hazards'.

2099 ? 2006 The Royal Society

2100
with

E. McCallum

and J. Heming from the National Hurricane of these warnings to the

the official forecasts leading up to the event in Miami. Center the usefulness Also, (NHC) communities most affected will be considered.

2. Perspective Hurricane Katrina (figure 1) was the third most intense hurricane (as measured

by central pressure) to hit the USA

in recorded history

(Knabb et al 2005). In

the Atlantic it briefly achieved the status of the fourth lowest central basin, ever recorded until a few weeks later when Hurricane Rita pressure (902 mbar), a central became the third most intense with of 897 mbar. pressure However, even Rita was upstaged in mid-October which had the lowest recorded by Wilma central pressure in the Atlantic of 882 mbar basin 10 m storm (see table 1). The on 29 August was the highest ever observed in North caused by Katrina surge but falls short of the all time record of 13 m which in Bathurst occurred America,

Bay

(Australia) in 1899 (Whittingham

event

1958).

some of the original in tragic resulted loss of life, but fortunately to be unfounded estimates with the final death toll of around 1300. This was proved less than the Okeechobee in 1928 when to Hurricane the fatalities were estimated be around 2500. However, it will almost be the costliest natural disaster certainly This

inUS history with total damage estimates of around US $ 75 billion (Knabb et al

of the city of New Orleans reconstruction. needed complete on the flooding in New focused This was Orleans. coverage storm surge triggering in the levees caused by the massive breaches principally sea level (see figure 2). This was the the city, which lies mostly below protecting in 1718, although to hit the city since its foundation the city has disaster greatest on average 4 years with direct hits occurring been brushed hurricanes every by on New In addition to the impact considerable 13.4 years. every Orleans, was also wrought on the Mississippi towns of Gulfport and Biloxi. destruction 2005) and parts Most media 3. Overview of the key environmental of Katrina the life cycle factors

concerning

the remnants Katrina's complex mix of a tropical wave, origins were a somewhat an earlier tropical depression et al and an upper tropospheric of trough (Knabb on 23 near the Bahamas to form a tropical combined depression 2005). These sea temperatures were above In this region, 27 ?C, and there was August. and upper-level mid-level weak vertical wind shear, high humidity relatively to organize convection associated the intense These conditions outflow. helped storm started to gain strength. and the with the disturbance a tropical storm to become Florida towards southern Katrina moved (winds on 25 August 1 hurricane landfall as a Category and made 2005 Atlantic to on the Saffir-Simpson at around close 10:30 UTC scale (Simpson 1974) near Miami. with over 400 mm of rain There was substantial Aventura flooding over the NHC in the eye of the hurricane in the region. passed Interestingly, a peak wind of approximately 80 mph trace showed the anemograph Miami; was then downgraded storm as it lost some of to a tropical (figure 3). Katrina season
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

of 39 mph)

at 12:00 UTC on 24 August.

It became the fifth hurricane of the

Hurricane

Katrina

2101

Figure
Table

1. Hurricane Katrina
reproduced 1. Most intense

at Category
of hurricanes measured

5 strength at 20:45 UTC

Research Laboratory, Atlantic pressure. and in the North by central

on 28 August
Monterey, at landfall CA.) over

2005. (Image
the USA as

courtesy recorded

the Naval

North Atlantic
pressure rank hurricane year

USA

landfall
pressure

(mbar) 882 888 892 897 899 902

rank

hurricane

year

(mbar) 892 909 920 922 925 927

1 2 3 4 5 6

Wilma Gilbert Labor day Rita Allen Katrina

2005 1988 1935 2005 1980 2005

Labor

day

Camille
Katrina Andrew Indianola

Florida Keys

1935 1969 2005 1992 1886 1919

was this weakening its low-level heat and moisture supply over land. However, as it entered a few hours. The storm regained the Gulf status hurricane only for a slightly as it traversed track south of westward of Mexico, after taking southern Florida.
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A

(2006)

2102

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

Figure

2. Part

of New

Orleans

following

the

flooding.

(Image

reproduced

courtesy

of FEMA.)

into the Gulf of Mexico, it became more intense over As the hurricane moved a powerful 2 days into the following and grew 5 hurricane with Category sustained winds of 175 mph and a central of 902 mbar. As Katrina pressure across it crossed moved northwestwards the Gulf of Mexico, the loop current an oceanic at the is circulation which originates (Hofmann & Worley 1986). This out through via a clockwise Yucatan and flows the Florida Channel Strait loop, around the Gulf of Mexico. the sea-surface While varying magnitude, close to 30 ?C, was fairly constant temperature, along the track of the hurricane, et al. 2005). A greater depth the sea-surface height was above average (Scharroo ocean in a higher of warm heat content) results than higher (and consequent The turbulent environment sea-surface of hurricanes average pulls water height. at depth is cool it can from beneath the surface and if the water (upwelling) in the weakening at the is warm result of the system. if the water However, to the surface lower depths, then water still warm and the is pulled being can are also in intensity increase if other hurricane conditions atmospheric to strengthening. conducive for these areas of deep warm water, When looking is one track water that is at least 26 ?C. This deep, warm water meteorologists to enable to intensify of the several critical factors and was hurricanes a contributory to the Katrina. factor of Hurricane undoubtedly intensity an area of positive 4 shows Katrina's track across sea-surface Figure height associated with the loop current intensification of the and the rapid anomaly to Category hurricane 5 status. on 29 August as it moved to a Category 4 hurricane Katrina weakened towards the coast. This was probably factors. due to a combination of several was air from continental Katrina entrained which evident from USA, dry on the western in erosion of deep convection satellite This resulted side imagery.
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

of

Hurricane

Katrina

2103

Figure

3. Anemograph (horizontal

trace scale

on

as Hurricane 25 August in knots). reproduced (Image

Katrina courtesy

over the NHC, passed of Bob Henson.)

Miami

wind lower sea-surface temperatures shear, slightly Increasing in the thickness of the upper warm also layer of the ocean may to the weakening, have contributed but further would be necessary investigation to confirm this. There were also changes to the internal structure of the eye of the and reduction hurricane Katrina August. It which could have made hastened landfall the weakening near Buras prior Louisiana to as landfall

of the hurricane.

et al 2005).
eventually then

(Knabb 3

a Category

hurricane with a wind speed of 130mph at 06:10 local time (11:10 UTC) on 29
a second near the Breton Sound making landfall still as a Category with The 3 hurricane 125 mph winds. Mississippi Pearlington, as it left the warm waters hurricane weakened of the Gulf, moving quickly across amounts northeast the USA dropping of rain in its path. copious steadily crossed remnants Canada
Phil. Trans.

The final advisory from the NHC was issued at 15:00 UTC on 30 August and the
were of Katrina on 31 August.
R. Soc. A (2006)

finally

absorbed

by a frontal

boundary

in northeastern

2104

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

4. Sea-surface Figure with the maximum from AGU.

height anomaly wind speeds (mph).

(cm)

on

28 August reprinted

and from

the

track

of Hurricane et al (2005)

Katrina with

along

Figure

Scharroo

permission

4. The from winds

Environmental most likely

impacts

of Katrina

three key elements a major hurricane and

and lastly, to 10 m in the

to cause serious environmental impacts are the powerful 4 or 5) like Katrina 3, (Category in this case), embedded tornadoes rainfall heavy (33 confirmed was up most but sometimes the storm which surge, importantly, case of Katrina. to damage is no doubt There that the wind and rain over trees and property, coastal particularly into such a major turned this event disaster points in the around the coastline and

brought areas of Mississippi, but what was storm the record surge. at various the surge 5 depicts Figure it with the last disastrous compares surge in 1969. Camille It can be seen that the at Clermont occurred Harbor, Mississippi than that caused Louisiana by southeast and Camille to the Florida and

extensive

caused region by Hurricane 10 m from Katrina surge of peak in general and was much greater over affected of coastline from 200 miles was to the This due panhandle. largely

size of the hurricane large in the northeastern observed caused largely in sea
Phil.

the extremely winds that were damaging storm of its circulation. The is surge quadrant rush of the water associated with the hurricane and is by the onshore due to the powerful wind and areal extent of those winds. The rise level caused the extremely low pressure has a much effect smaller by
R. Soc. A (2006)

Trans.

Hurricane

Katrina

2105

Figure 5. Storm surge heights

Gulf coast.

from Hurricane Camille

(Image reproduced

(1969) and Hurricane Katrina

of Bob Henson.)

along the

courtesy

(up to 1m contribution). coincides with tide high coastline of

The and

storm is also

surge

is particularly complicated by the

damaging topography

when of

it the

and the slope of the underlying shelf. the Indeed, understanding storm is a science in itself; to take there is a need into surges impact account or in the affected factors of the land above area, height hydrological sea level and the quality a city in place to protect below of the defences put from the sea. In this case, the long, gently and shallow water shelves sloping coast contributed to a higher of the Gulf storm be observed surge than would with The shelves. sheer size of Katrina exacerbated the surge and of steeper course in this case. the defences proved inadequate (levees) as to when There was an initial confusion the levees of New Orleans broke, were due to the storm but the main breaches than flooding later surge rather rain inland. The first reliable caused of the levee of a breach report by heavy came from CNN at around 06:30 UTC to the public on of a breach 17th which Canal report Street, a total of Pontchartrain. This was quickly followed by to a depth in 80% of the city being under water resulting were to the levees protecting breaches the city from this system north
Phil.

on 29 August with a connects into Lake three levee breaches, of 7-8 m. All reported lake which lies to the

of New
Trans. R. Soc.

Orleans
A

(see map

in figure

6).

(2006)

2106

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

Figure

6. New

Orleans

and

coastal

Mississippi.

(Image

reproduced

courtesy

of Google

Inc.)

Clearly, emphasizing the beyond

what

followed has been documented the media, widely by are clearly socio-economic and political factors which complex time to be fully understood. scope of this paper and will need more

5. The

Forecasting

aspects

centre in the Atlantic in Miami. for hurricanes official forecast is the NHC issue 120 h tropical track and intensity forecasts four times per day They cyclone east of in the North Atlantic for all tropical and eastern North Pacific cyclones in complexity forecast aids used by the centre from simple 140? W. The range to three-dimensional statistical models models primitive equation (De Maria NWP models have become skilful in the prediction of tropical increasingly 1997). in recent tracks For example, the mean track 7 shows years. cyclone figure errors from forecast the Met Office Global Model for all Northern Hemisphere since 1988, emphasizing The four NWP tropical steady improvement. cyclones used for track prediction, which have the best models NHC produced by

guidance in recent years, are the GFS (US global model), NOG APS (US Navy model), GFDL (high-resolution hurricane model) and the Met Office Global

and the NHC Model. forecasts show far less skill than track forecasts Intensity uses a variety aids mainly based on statistical models. of forecast The official NHC forecast is issued 3 h after the main forecast hours (00:00,06:00, are available forecast aids which for input into this 12:00 and 18:00 UTC). Any are termed as 'early'. However, model forecast the majority of numerical outputs are not available to as 'late' models. until after this time and are referred To
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A

(2006)

Hurricane

Katrina

2107
forecast

Northern

Hemisphere positional

tropical cyclone errors

'"" 0"1-r. .r"".' r""",""","r.

.r.. ..-.T.......t..,...r....

.. T..,.,r........i.r.-.?.yin,,,?

-,.?,,, -?,,??. ,,?,,?,.i?r?

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
year Figure 7. Met Office Global Model tropical forecast cyclone lead time track forecast errors. Each line represents a

in hours.

92?W
Figure 8. 'Early' track

90?W

lilil? ?8?W 86?W

from 18:00 UTC

84?W
on

82?W

80?W

78?W
(Image CO.) reproduced courtesy of

forecasts Jonathan

Vigh,

Colorado

25 August 2005. State University,

Phil.

Trans.

R. Soc.

(2006)

2108

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

40?N

30?N

20?N

100?N

80?W

Figure 9. The probability that the track ofKatrina passes with 120 km radius during the next 120 h using the ECMWF ensemble forecast tracks starting at 00:00 UTC on 26 August 2005. Blue tracks, ensemble
members; green track, control (unperturbed) forecast track; black track, operational forecast track.

(Image reproduced courtesy of ECMWF.) 45?N

40?N

35?N

30?N

Met Office

25?N

20?N

95?W

90?W

85?W

80?W

75?W

Figure 10. 'Early' track forecasts from 12:00 UTC on 26 August 2005. (Image reproduced courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, CO.)
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

Hurricane

Katrina

2109
forecast tracks of Hurricane Katrina

Met Office Global Model, US warning centre 38?N 36?N 34?N

96?W 93?W UK 20050826

key to forecast tracks

87?W 84?W 90?W ? US 20050826

81?W

78?W

75?W

72?W

69?W

(triangles denote analysed positions) Figure 11. Met Office Global Model

24 hourly real time observed positions S date/time of first symbol 12Z 24 Aug 2005 tracks 12:00 UTC on

(red) and NHC (green) forecast 26 August 2005.

overcome model manner

'late' the NHC forecast fields from the previous interpolates so that the track predictions will be available in a timely the 'early' model output. along with were predicting As Katrina landfall over southern Florida, models approached over there was it would the Gulf that of Mexico. However, regain strength as to the track of the hurricane at this time. Figure 8 shows considerable uncertainty on 25 August, which would tracks at 18:00 UTC the spread of forecast guidance this problem, runs as input, been available

have

to the NHC in real time. The acronyms in the figure represent and climatological various available. This forms of guidance includes statistical as well as some of the numerical models mentioned 9 previously. Figure guidance,

shows the spread of tracks in the ensemble forecast from 00:00 UTC on 26 August
produced (ECMWF). by the European These ensemble for Medium-Range Centre tracks represent the predictions Weather Forecasts from the same version

of the ECMWF model,

but with

small changes

(perturbations)

to the initial

a probabilistic kind of forecast This of the hurricane. representation provides in the and gives a measure of the confidence of the track of the hurricane prediction in this case and at this point of time was relatively low. which prediction, was a crucial The of Katrina. 26 August 'early' Friday, day in the forecast had divergent from western for 12:00 UTC of landfall forecasts predictions was to the Florida the Met Office Global Model Louisiana However, panhandle. a more accurate one of the first to indicate close to New Orleans. 10 path Figure
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

2110
Met Office Global Model,

E. McCallum

and J. Heming
centre

US

warning

forecast

tracks T

of Hurricane

Katrina

96?W 93?W 90?W 87?W -*- UK 20050827 ? US 20050827

key to forecast denote tracks analysed positions) (triangles

84?W

81?W

78?W

75?W

72?W

69?W

24 hourly real time observed positions S date/time of first symbol 00Z 24 Aug 2005 (red) and NHC (green) forecast 27 August 2005. tracks 00:00 UTC on

Figure

12. Met

Office Global Model

'late' model for this time shows interpolated 'early' track guidance (including with the track from the Met Office from the previous guidance run) together error for landfall over New Orleans was Global Model. The 72 h forecast just 11 shows the 12:00 UTC forecast track and 59 km. Figure Met Office 26 August conservative the observed track alongside the more forecast from the NHC based on a consensus of model forecasts. The Met Office forecast track was clearly more out that the NHC did not have this run of it should be pointed accurate, although to their available the Met model and other 'late' model Office guidance at 00:00 at this time. By the time the NHC issued their guidance predictions on 27 August, of the track, although UTC prediction they had a very accurate track was slightly slow near landfall, while the Met Office model forecast slightly west of the observed to the of track (see figure 12). By this time, the consensus on the New Orleans area. The spread of the forecast model tracks had converged 00:00 UTC ensemble forecast members also reduced markedly between ECMWF

on 26 August
a strike

(figure 9) and 12:00 UTC on 26 August

(figure 13). The former

This had of approximately showed 20% over New Orleans. probability in the forecast risen to approximately issued just 12 hours later. All forecast 60% from 60 h before landfall onwards gave excellent produced by the NHC guidance to the areas worst affected. warning from the has indicated that track forecasts Post-storm by the NHC analysis were to the NHC model the best guidance available for the whole Met Office at lead times up to 48 h and the second best at 72 h lifetime of Hurricane Katrina
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

Hurricane

Katrina

2111

100?W 80?W Figure 13. The probability that the track of Katrina passes within 120 km radius during the next 120 h using the ECMWF ensemble forecast tracks starting at 12:00 UTC on 26 August 2005. Blue
tracks, operational ensemble forecast forecast track. members; (Image green track, control courtesy reproduced (unpeturbed) of ECMWF.) forecast track; black track,

for 2005 indicate that the Met Office Global Model and the GFDL regional model
provided the best dynamic guidance to the NHC.

(Knabb

et al

2005).

Provisional

figures

for the whole

Atlantic

hurricane

season

6. Warnings The and was reflected the accurate official warnings that were disseminated by the NHC in the 60 h prior to the landfall of Katrina. consistent This model guidance it in a variety of ways. then cascaded down to local centres who interpreted was issued by the National Weather the most dramatic Service, Perhaps warning on 28 August under the heading of 'Devastating New Orleans expected'. damage The body of the message said 'Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, least one-half homes will have roof and At of well-constructed perhaps longer. or wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail leaving those homes severely damaged as most will be down will last for weeks Power power poles outages destroyed. will make human and transformers Water destroyed. shortages suffering in New the impact of wind damage incredible modern standards.' by Although of this dramatically Orleans was not as severe as it could have been, some aspects bear marked similarities with what occurred. worded message actually were accurate is no doubt that the forecasts and warnings There up to 60 h to leave to landfall and most took the advice of New Orleans officials prior people in America's the hurricane societal issues the city. However, exposed complex to leave. the resources had also and some people lacked Some South Deep ever personal reason in the past and for what witnessed less severe hurricanes (e.g. friends
Phil. Trans.

and
A

family,
(2006)

fear of looters)

decided

to ride out

the hurricane.

R. Soc.

2112

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

of the impact of Katrina was upbeat, coverage Early media largely because were in the highest stationed some reports reporters parts of the city, although did talk of catastrophic on Monday late hours 29 August. by flooding the federal response did not match the gravity of the situation Unfortunately, until much later in the week and of course the political fallout was massive. is no doubt There that Katrina will act as a wake-up call for all planners and around the world to cope with that have natural disasters. agencies However, also need to be asked about people's of warnings and we questions perception to reiterate warnings to help and messages may need to look at innovative ways act on them. There can become is a danger that a population to immune people severe weather and perhaps the worst-case situations call for repeated warnings extra measures, and more of risk. special warning products explicit depiction it is worth that 80% of the population of about a million However, noting people acted on the excellent and were able to evacuate warning safely. The almost total evacuation of Houston towns in Texas and other and in advance Louisiana a of Hurricane in all probability Rita a few weeks later was reaction to the events that many had witnessed in the media concerning Katrina.

7. Climate

change

event is usually accompanied in the media Every severe weather by much speculation about the impact of man-made climate in Katrina change and Hurricane (followed was no exception. the same season by Category 5 hurricanes, Rita and Wilma) are concerned, a mixed recent As far as tropical literature provides cyclones impact of climate signal on the possible change. (i) Trenberth activity activity rainfall changes
remains

in observed that a trend suggests tropical cyclone (2005) is hard to prove owing to the large natural of cyclone variability to the sample size. He suggests that the intensity and compared are probably from cyclones due to human-induced increasing on cyclone in the environment, but that the effect numbers
unclear.

(ii) Emanuel (2005) finds that the power dissipated by western North Pacific and
Atlantic since the 1970s. He relates the cyclones has more than doubled to an increase in sea temperatures, but finds that these increases growth cannot explain the entire rise in the power of the cyclones. Emanuel concludes more powerful. that future warming may lead to cyclones becoming et al. (2005) conclude the frequency of tropical that in recent decades (iii) Webster has not but the proportion cyclones changed significantly, reaching over the last 30 years. 4 and 5 has doubled Categories North (iv) Other trend for any upward have questioned whether there is evidence authors in hurricane methods of data analysis destruction (Pielke 2005) and the of in the aforementioned the publication used studies (Landsea 2005). Indeed, a robust debate on et al. (2005) has stimulated Emanuel (2005) and Webster of the historical of tropical and consistency database cyclone of the data using modern and has triggered moves for a re-analysis intensity techniques. the quality
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

Hurricane

Katrina

2113

models

in climate is to study how tropical cyclones may change approach there is large levels of greenhouse increased forced with gases. However, et al in the results of these models. Sugi et al (2002) and McDonald uncertainty in the future simulations. There are large both found fewer tropical cyclones (2005) in both the models in the sign of the changes and the results of regional variations these studies are of the opposite suggest a clear sign in some regions. Some models An alternative et al towards increased k Tuleya 2004; McDonald intensity (e.g. Knutson or a decrease in precipitation in frequency and intensity, but an increase 2005) in intensity in revision), while others show no change k Emori (Sugi (Hasegawa and which of experiments et al 2002). Ensembles sample modelling uncertainty are needed to quantify and long integrations these effects. natural variability a marked the relatively small magnitude There remains between discrepancy increase projected of tropical studies, by numerical intensity modelling cyclone and the much of change such as Knutson k Tuleya larger magnitude (2004), shift

observed by Emanuel (2005) and Webster reconciled (Pielke et al 2005).

et al

(2005), which has yet to be

In the Atlantic, is complicated the situation further by the presence of the on the which Atlantic hurricane multi-decadal oscillation, regulates activity in an active of several decades. The Atlantic has been time-scale phase of this season in with since fits of 1995 and the 2005 hurricane this pattern cycle et al. 2001; Landsea increased hurricane activity (Goldenberg 2005). to avoid events It is wise individual such as Katrina with the associating as it is probable of climate that this hurricane would impacts possible change in greenhouse have of any recent occurred increase It is gases. irrespective was affected to say whether the peak intensity observed impossible by recently of the possible trends of global warming. Discussion impacts of climate change on on a global scale over a to trends to be related in activity needs tropical cyclones intense hurricanes such as Katrina, Rita and period of several decades although to that debate. will add some impatience Wilma

8. Conclusion on 29 hit the Gulf coast to the east of New Orleans which Katrina, one that was 2005 was one of the worst natural disasters in US history and August to the full glare of the modern media with its 24 h news channels and the subject chatter of the Internet. It was the third most intense hurricane terms of central (in to hit the USA in recorded history and its record 10 m storm surge caused pressure) in low-lying coastal areas of the Gulf, most notably in the city catastrophic flooding Hurricane of New Orleans its greatest which suffered disaster since its foundation in 1718. The forecasts and official warnings of the event up to 60 h ahead were excellent and largely based on an 'ensemble' of NWP models, which have the improved over the last 20 years. This of tropical is accuracy cyclone forecasting enormously due to: largely ? ? accuracy increasing diversity, data, better assimilation techniques information from satellites,
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2006)

and coverage that can

of observations, extract increasing

especially amounts

satellite of useful

2114
? ?

E. McCallum

and J. Heming

treatment resolution and more accurate better NWP models, including higher and of physical such as clouds and precipitation, processes, more to cope with it possible the increasing that make computers powerful run higher to run fast enough models and allow those models resolution data, in real time to be useful to forecasters.

The Met Office Global Model was highlighted

particularly of Hurricane to numerical

in the paper and performed

of landfall the correct location well, being one of the first to predict on improvements over the Gulf coast. Work is continuing Katrina further the which should models and observing improve systems, in the future. of tropical prediction cyclones areas of the was a wake-up to tropical Katrina call, in particular cyclone-prone was a major sea level. Despite this at or below the excellent warnings, globe on the state of flood debate has fuelled a political for the USA which catastrophe and help in general should the global society do to coordinate and what defences natural hazards. the impact of such massive mitigate
The draft paper. authors of this wish paper to thank and Bob to Bob for his of ECMWF Riddaway of UCAR, Henson CO Boulder, very comments helpful for some of the pictures on an used earlier in this

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